I love Taleb's facial expression at 4:51 when the other guest is talking about being "forward-looking"--she sounds like a phoney representative from some company.
@stuartnnnBO Sorry i dindt make it clear you it isnt a bad thing dont have to be mathematical to be a economist some schools of economic thought actually shun mathematical approach to model building(Austrian school).TALEB himself proclaims he is not an economist he calls them pseudo intellectuals. as a result of being not being an economist he has been able to develop independent thinking on the black swan problem .oh and although Fermat was known for his mathematical exploits he was a lawyer
He was angry in 2008, wouldn't you be if you can see the problem, explain it clearly, and have this ridiculous anchor ask the same stupid question over and over again? As it turns out, it WAS only the beginning....
@cisdolce It was beautiful! She mentioned how we need to be "forward thinking," totally not getting that the very idea that we can think forward is the whole problem.
He sounds like the grandfather I wish I had - "wise common sense".
Most institutions everywhere (especially governments) seem to be run either by the morally bankrupt or overeducated / inexperienced "me" generation who never lived through the 70's/80's recession and rose rapidly to high levels of incompetence - you have to invest for yourself and be your own expert - or your done!
@DancingET I am reading his latest book, the Black Swan.After seeing the passion he displays on this talk show, i can say that is very similar to the way he writes. Terrific stuff !
I keep thinking - how incredible this guy must feel to have been validated in such a big way on the global stage. He writes about how we do what we do because we are looking for validation -from others.His open scorn for "experts" is so refreshing.
Nassim Taleb is bang on when he talks about the "incentive to make money on a steady basis" claiming they are taking no risk.. collecting bonuses each year .. without taking into account the "blow up".. and he is also correct about bogus measures.. if they were so good? in the words of Hugh Hendry (Plasticine Man in Invisible Hands - Drobny) "How do smart people keep f*cking it up!?"
In order to solve America's Financial Problems, we must prevent Cost Overruns - we must underestand Uncertainty and Risk - learn HOW at my channel - read my book "Cost Overruns" on Amazon.com only $2.99 on Kindle
Damn, Taleb, stop stuttering and spit it out. The OTC Derivative Market with a notional value of $600- $1500 Trillion dollars is collapsing because investors were sold CDO's stuffed with Mortgage Back Securities that contained NO MORTGAGES in them!!!. Death of the Dollar and the Anglo Empire. GAME OVER!!!!!!
Interesting aside on the Nobel prize: the prize for economics wasn't originally one of the categories... some people say that it is politically motivated to spread the ideology of free markets and free banking... from what this guy is saying that would seem to make sense...
p.s. this is not conspiratorial, it's simply coincidence or like minded people rewarding like minded people or power begetting power or something...
I like his points (I've read The Black Swan), but I worry about people who'll misunderstand his point and respond with "let's take all the statistical analysis out of finance and economics because it does this". That's a step backwards. What we really need to do is to fix the models and to build in safeguards in case the models are still wrong.
@rainzoro Just keep in mind that people have an incentive to try and convince you they know. In my humble opinion, the main point Taleb is pushing here is that there will ALWAYS be uncertainty, and in fact a great deal of it, in the future. For example: no one foresaw the fall of the Soviet Union [save the Lubavitcher Rebbe who is a prophet.]
We hate uncertainty... We need to understand everything.. and if it doesn't exist, we make it up, with models and statistics and stories.. kind of like... religion?
@IlGiglioNero I know. Almost everything he says is very compelling, so, his explanation in The Black Swan notwithstanding, I really can't understand why he would single out Plato as the embodiment of what he calls "Platonicity" or "nerd knowledge" -- Plato's Socrates is perhaps the most powerful and influential proto-skeptic in our intellectual history, and I've always seen Plato's theory of forms as an admission that our reality is imperfect and incomprehensible, inferior to a higher reality...
Hilarious. He's in a nutshell saying that there are some things you simply cannot predict, so build the system on robustness to withstand the unexpected hits when they happen. Then the woman to his right basically says we just have to be more "forward looking" and be better at predicting. Basically she's saying we'd be better off just predicting the unpredictable. (That's when you see Taleb look at her and frown :)
The essence of the contemporary monetary system is very easy to understand, dogmas, superstitions and unawareness keep people in a state of weakness, in a state of vulnerability. The financial system is a zero sum game and it's played on our lives. Human beings are often very dangerous.
i think its not so much that the measures of risk are fundamentally flawed but the failure of the public to recognize and take into account risk. people tend to become optimists when it is favourable for them to think so. also, when someone is trying to sell you a derivative or share, they're bloody not likely going to emphasize the point that you might lose all that money overnight? they're more likely to play down the risk and disregard it even, no?
He's not angry, just passionate as to what he believes. I agree with his points, most of the great findings and inventions in history were made out of a black swan event which was unprecedented.
Value at risk does take into account extremes, but the data can only be taken of what has happened, and hence is not adept to an unprecedented event.
It's farce to believe that because you've studied mathematical models for years in school that you understand how the world works. Economics is not a hard science, and the more they try to make it one, the less relevant it becomes. I love that Taleb starts from the basis that study all you want, you will never understand the intricacies of the world. "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." - FA Hayek
Learned about this guy just from seeing photo of him with Tim Ferriss. Good he knows that the Federal Reserve helped cause this, the artificially low interest rates allowed for economic expansion which didn't have the demand to support it, causing a recession.
Thanks for your comments at 4:11, Mr. Taleb. I feel much better now! :D. In all seriousness, this man's writings are witty and compelling. AFAIK, VAR and cVAR are still used everywhere in risk models... scary.
@Witnessthefitness84 BBC Newsnight 2008/10/10. I am trying to dload the torrent (search Google) but there's a lack of seeds right now (situ could change). I have searched thebox.bz to no avail but you may have better luck. Pls let me know if you find it!
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This guy Taleb is full of shit.... He mixes truth with disinfo.... Any poker player can tell you he is a total liar the way the uses his hands and doesn't sit still.. LOL he wants you to believe Trillionaire Banksters are Stupid.. and don't know what they're doing.. Wake Up you idiots!!!
@hydrolist1 I'm wide awake and if you can't see Taleb is a bullshit disinfo spewing jerkoff with mediocre acting skills then Ur either a totally brain dead mind controlled chump or you're attempting to intentionally mislead the dumbed down sheeple with your jackass comment
Can Taleb's theories be applied to not only the financial markets, but to the Multicultural societal models advocated by Western governments and experts? Everyone assumes, for example, that importing millions of Muslims, Africans, and Latin Americans to industrialised countries will have no consequences. Taleb's family originated in Lebanon, which had (still has) its own problems with the Multi-Cult model of society (i.e., it failed).
He's not angry. these days people are coached on how to act on tv, so you have to keep you head very still but move your hands alot. If you raise you voice 2 much the box amplifies this and if you do move your head a bit, it looks like its bouncing around inside a box! So this would be normal in the real world, its just that tv distorts. He is a clever bloke though, so bring on the philosopher rulers!
I just started reading the Black Swan & yes it is quite complex. & yes It's hard to really get a handle on what he is saying exactly ? Where does he stand ? What exactly does that mean to become more "robust" Now again I just started the book but I hope he provides some solutions. I mean I think he kind of is stating the obvious - yes there is much we don't know but we do know something. Dont we?
Bankers and traders take enormous amounts of risk that puts stakeholder's equity at jeopardy. Bankers and traders are rewarded by how much money they make. To make more money, they take more risk, and as a reward for their hard-work they take home huge bonuses. If they risk end up sour, they may still have a job, but if they don't, they walk away with nice severance packages, while shareholders lose by a drop in the stock price. Bankers and traders win no matter what.
@dougIassbickford I'm trying to remember, but I think that might be the British pronunciation of it. I seem to remember my English teacher saying it that way (although she was Irish), considering Taleb was taught in Oxford this certainly could make sense. It also makes contextual sense as he was just talking about how people talk about him exaggerating. Hope this helps :).
I like Taleb, but he really does have a bad habbit of pointing out the need to get rid of all of our models for understanding risk without explaining how markets and capitalism will function without them.
I agree that Taleb is a little extreme, but a lot of the things he proposes we abolish are not really all that essential to the stability of our financial system. Many complex derivatives are nothing more than speculative tools which serve to provide more leverage under the guise of reducing risk. Remember, Taleb is an options trader so he's not against all derivatives only those we don't understand or whose risk we can't adequately quantify.
@mocarro - that's the whole point to what Mr. Taleb is saying. These models of so called risk are useless, and that derivatives, equity markets and anything else that use "risk models" to convey a sense of legitimacy are at its core casinos. He is trying to tell you that when people put money into equity markets and the like, they should know that they are placing money on a roulette table and anything these bankers tell you about the absence of risk is a whole lot of b.s.
Wow. Talib is the first prof who I see talking in public reasonably. You can learn so much, and understand and apply successfully many things nowadays. It's a society of information and know-how, by the means of analytic reduction and simplification. And exactly these two methods work mostly, but when they fail they do so epically. There are 4 Masters and PHDs on the screen in the discussion, but 3 of them are blind dumb b**** who just don't get it. So this is our society,clever dumbasses, gosh!
But research, and if you play it well, silver then water and phosphorus will make you some nice wealth so you can raise a nice family. Something this world seriously lacks more than it lacks adequate food and energy.
The water and phosphorus being very long term investments. Once uranium sells off it should be a great investment as well. You could play the miners.
too, the problem is the volatility of the markets. It will keep affecting demand and thus lower the prices significantly as you saw in the summer 2008. But with peak phosphorus coming, and people needing to eat, you really cannot lose. Potash the fertilizer company would be an OK way to play it.
CGW is a water ETF, it is just not a good one, investing in things like this are not as easy as of now, however they eventually will be.
You do not have to believe an anonymous guy on the internet
But will shall see. You will have to stay on your toes. You could buy silver now like lots of people are doing, I simply personally believe lots of them are going to be flushed out in the next leg down.
After you made some money there, you will then be able to invest long term in what will make you a lot this century, it is just not easy to invest in them unless you have a 100 million dollars or so.
Water, Phosphorus. With peak oil, alternative energies, oil, natural gas will all be good
inflation. As Hugh Hendry says, it will happen, just NOT yet. Look at the euro, it is in trouble, the head of Societie Generale in France says a break up is inevitable, this is bullish for the dollar, not good for commodities like gold/silver. But this will not go on forever, and if the economy continues to suffer, you can count on the US to pass more stimulus.
So what I am trying to say is, when you see silver under 10 dollars, buy it, I know a few multi millionaires that see silver 200.
deflation, and it did not work. They continued down a deflationary spiral for 20 years. I personally am now in Hugh Hendry's camp, the Chinese are not immune (their GDP is high because they are building entire cities no one lives in yet) and the world will suffer through another deflationary 'collapse' in the markets. At this point, things like silver that the inflationists have been championing will be incredibly cheap, and the continued government spending will now completely insure hyper
Marc Faber is one of my favorite economists. He is convinced the dollar will eventually be worth zero, which rightfully so, in order to pay our 13 trillion worth of debt, and Obama's additional 1.3 trillion annual deficit, plus our future obligations, the Fed will have to monetize the debt.
Now, Marc Faber was hosting a discussion at a Russian conference and Hugh Hendry spoke. He made me start thinking a little differently. He points out the Japanese trying inflating their way out of
As for my initial response to you, I apologize, that was really uncalled for. There was no need to throwing insults. I just get tired of this path of insanity. We will eventually be at war with Iran, and then all hell will really break lose. You seem to think I am just not willing to fight for my country and am a pussy or something, wrong, I will fight for the right reasons.
We simply cannot afford to keep fighting these wars. However we do a lot of things we cannot afford to do.
Please give me one good reason why we should give Israel billions of dollars a year. Just one logical reason. "God will curse us if we don't" does not count as a logical reason.
Look if the American people, a lot of Americans think the same as you, want to keep going down this path fine. I will make a shit load of money off the inevitable collapse of the dollar. And I am harmed, any muslim that wants to do me or mine harm will be put down, same goes with anyone else.
Wow dude just wow. Maybe you should listen to the fucking people explain why they are attacking you. It has absolutely everything to do with Israel. Or maybe you can explain to me why Osama Bin Laden is attacking us. Because Osama Bin Laden has made himself clear, and the answer is Israel.
You are absolutely fucking retarded if you think you are a fiscal conservative and at the same time advocate destroying this nation's wealth through perpetual war.
lol, yea all them "terrists just be hatin our freedoms!"
Israel does not factor into the equation obviously. So what we should do is destroy US wealth by spending one trillion plus dollars to destroy the goods this country still actually does make (bombs, tanks, planes).
Ron Paul never said they were justified by the way, he simply tries to explain to incredibly ignorant people why terrorists are in fact attacking us. And it sure as hell is not because they hate our freedoms.
Taleb's comment were "cut" because the bald man was also commenting so you got soundbites. It wasn't fluid. He does not believe in "theories" nor does he believe that because something happened in 1929 that it is necessarily going to "play out" today as it did then. He also believes randomness or "chance" plays a much bigger role in our collective lives than we think. Think of these CDS's and other intricate economic "instruments" and the fact no one really understood them.
and you are clueless if you thinkt that americans have to do proactive national defense! First of all the U.S. cannot afford it financially. Second, your proactive defense has been a total failure! In what way has it helped the safety and prosperity of the U.S.? It has made the U.S. totally unpopular around the world (= less safety) and worsened the fiscal deficit dramatically. (= less prosperity)
He does NOT say that terrorist attacks are justified! but are not happening without a reason. If you get attacked in your country makes you angry (afghanistan or wherever). This anger combined with no education and poverty can make you do foolish things. He doesn't say the reason makes the attacks acceptable. But he does not see the situation getting better by being involved in wars that the U.S. cannot afford anyway!
I'm just reading the book by Taleb, Fooled by Randomness, and his points are valid. I think what he is saying is that models and forecasts are not inherently useless, but that we interpret them poorly and wrongly assess risk. Past events/data will not correctly predict the future. Taleb expresses this well in his book, but I have to agree that on this show he did not convey his message in layman terms, and not very structured.
i wonder how taleb makes/made trading decisions. if you do not accept any model or forecast that can give you at least a hint of what could be happening in the future then how do you make management decisions? he himself wakes up every day thinking he doesnt understand the world. i personally like taleb, but i dont understand this point.
@citaro06 I understand this, I got some experience in trading.I don't trust in Models.Trade with news about the market and your feeling about the trade.This will let you win!!
@citaro06 Taleb describes his basic investment strategy in "The Black Swan". He calls it the "Barbell" strategy, putting the vast majority of his assets in highly conservative investments and using about 10-20% to play around with high-risk investments that could pay off big time in the event of a Black Swan. He said he had only had four good days in his career as a trader, but the winnings from any one of those days would have been enough for a lifetime.
you know what, like Warren Buffet says, its better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.
The world is complicated. but there are basic components and mechanics to this chaos. We have to stop focusing on the complex results, we have to look at the big picture, core problems that create crisis.
Taleb is angry because he feels angry at people around him failing to admit the huge impacts of human fallibility. if the pilot doesn't know what he's doing, i'd be pretty scared too.
Wow, imagine that. Basing important decisions on scientific reasoning and study. Of course thats the problem. Greed, going along with the mob, and ego cause people to be irrational.
This guy is a fucken genius, for purely pointing out that markets are comforted by models which don't work he should be given a Nobel. Ratings agencies and Big 4 accounting firms should be dissolved and rebuilt with people who aren't susceptible to "well bla bla bla" wrote a paper on it so therefore it must be true".
Yeah, if Merton & Scholes got the Nobel and LTCM blew up by following their models, and Taleb has debunked them even to their face, then that sits well for Taleb. His point is that economists assume the future will be like the past, so they use means and standard deviations and beta to construct portfolios and figure risks going forward that are all based on a dead past, not realizing that past imbalances can lead to future crises that are NEW. NASDAQ 5,000 was a joke not a solid trendline.
Mr. Taleb is just impassioned, and is tired, it appears, of fools....as to his book Black Swan, I have only heard about it recently and I do plan to read it. I'll see if I can see fact mistakes....we're only human..., but making false and misleading claims, ie those Mr. Tableb is pointing a damning finger at, that's fraud. Mr. Taleb is far from blaze (blah-zey) and thank god for that!
I'm reading the Black Swan and think it's great, but this guy seems rather obnoxious in-person. Once he got stuck on communicating his point, he couldn't go beyond it. I still don't know if he's pure genius or pure paranoia.
The Black Swan is full of factual mistakes. Had to stop reading it because I was so annoyed. He might be right in principle, but He's terrible at proving his theories.
I hate to break it to you, but we started with the Constitution. Saying that we should read the Constitution and pay attention to it is not a new suggestion at all. The Constitution was a great document, unlike any before it. Unfortunately, it has become clear that it is insufficient, if our goal is to maintain a limited government with focused objectives.
The tenth amendment delegates remaining powers to the states. But then we have the elastic and interstate commerce clauses...too open ended.
I think you should revert to some basic english lessons and forget the other 4 languages my friend... then you would have realised that my initial comment was in support of him, and not a criticism. Nice try though. あんまりかしこくないなー！
economy professors and everybody else who built their career around the established portfolio theories will never admit their defeat even if there will be 10 more black swans. they will always find new excuses about why the reality didn't fit their theory in the particular cases.
You are shit, mediocristan , mediocre arrogant incomeptent. I am a trader , I trade in my fund my own money. I know NNT since 1984 in NYC and I'm honoured. You are a bunch of idiot determinst. Your totally clear incompetence is under everyone eyes: res ipsa loquor , imbecil.
Very likely you are a poor clerck of some fly by night corporation. Imbecil , shut up study and than came back.
I have a question for anyone who has read his book. If everyone around him is wrong, then what does he recommend we do in terms of investment? Should we even invest in bonds? Gold?
He believes you should invest in very safe areas - government bonds etc. and put a small amount into areas that can benefit from black swans and unexpected events. he also outlines ways of mitigating the effects of black swans. His "black swan hedge fund" has benefited from the crisis by about 20bn apparently. His earlier book "fooled by randomness" is probably a better book if you are interested in learning more.
he doesn't say everyone around him is wrong, he says the world is simply too complicated to make perfect predictions and thus any investment based upon a complex model that "cages risk" isn't fundamentally sound and eventually equivalent to gambling. Ideally, you highly diversify and invest in things that contain real value and/or productive capacity such as commodities and businesses.
He can not explain his argument because it is far to complicated to understand in a period of six minutes. He is frustrated because he knows he is right and most people dont have the ability to understand. Read his books and try explaining them to people and you will sound the same way.
YES! You are one of the people who get it. Media is dumbing us down, it is dumbing society down, it is dumbing politics down, because it is such now, that whoever in TV debated delivers the best "one line punch", gets the best standing in the eyes of the audience, barring prior ideological standing.
If you can't DUMB your point down to a ten-second smart-sounding line, you lose on TV, no matter if you're Garry kasparov or Einstein #2 in terms of smarts.
Well, then, given that the media is so influential and so predictable at dumbing complex realities down to comprehensible 10-second recaps digestible by the short-attention-span crowd, then that should create some exploitable opportunities in the marketplace.
That's why I buy chicken stocks at the first mention of 'mad cow' disease occuring in North America. Shoppers react first, and get around to digesting the reality if they can make the time. Journalists report the shoppers' reactions.
People make decisions based on models and theories. Models and theories are *by definition* incomplete because they are simplifications of reality and not reality itself. Therefore any decision based on a theory is a decision based on incomplete data.
I tend to agree. I'd put it a slightly different way: That the theory is NOT the data, the same way that the map is not the territory. If the theory, model or framework used to explain somethign is thought up by people with no knwoledge of the facts or little respect for them, then the understanding conveyed by an otherwise good-sounding theoretical explanation will be flawed or ultimately counterfactual.
I agree; I'm not finished reading the book, and anytime someone asks me what I'm reading and what the book is about, I have no idea what to say, and I always end up feeling like I am discrediting Taleb.
BLONDE says Apocalyptic at the end
She bought a dictionary!
genyue 2 weeks ago
11 are part of the 1%
rcsm77 2 weeks ago
Austrian economists predicted this.
steve0281 1 month ago 3
I love Taleb's facial expression at 4:51 when the other guest is talking about being "forward-looking"--she sounds like a phoney representative from some company.
dedbusted 1 month ago
the man is not an economist
mzee101 1 month ago
@mzee101 Are you saying that is a bad thing?
If you are, I would disagree with you. Would you say Fermat was an economist? Or just a mathematician? A lot of what he's saying comes from Fermat.
Do you have to be an economist to talk about maths?
stuartnnn 3 weeks ago
@stuartnnnBO Sorry i dindt make it clear you it isnt a bad thing dont have to be mathematical to be a economist some schools of economic thought actually shun mathematical approach to model building(Austrian school).TALEB himself proclaims he is not an economist he calls them pseudo intellectuals. as a result of being not being an economist he has been able to develop independent thinking on the black swan problem .oh and although Fermat was known for his mathematical exploits he was a lawyer
mzee101 2 weeks ago
Best economic philosopher
sosofresh360 1 month ago
What he's said about it just being the start has been proven completely correct in the last few months
TheDanielmac 1 month ago
Extremely smart man !
nokia3210fuck 2 months ago
He knew more than all those talking head economists and sheeple.
Tsnore 2 months ago
LEBANESE POWER !!
huntedrasta 3 months ago
Heck, it should be mandatory reading for everyone!
IJASFDIJL 4 months ago
His writings should be mandatory for anyone in the finacial and economic field.
IJASFDIJL 4 months ago 2
@IJASFDIJL absolutely....so true....as well as Nouriel Roubini aka Dr.Doom and Joseph Stiglitz
sosofresh360 1 month ago
I like this guy. He hits the nail on the head about the arrogance of "experts".
britishjohn04 4 months ago 3
Poor Nassim, people do not understand the system needs to be rewritten.
rpapaz 5 months ago
Why did you cut out the comments of the other person? Are we not allowed to hear two sides of the debate?
jismith1989 5 months ago
He was angry in 2008, wouldn't you be if you can see the problem, explain it clearly, and have this ridiculous anchor ask the same stupid question over and over again? As it turns out, it WAS only the beginning....
rcsm77 5 months ago 5
what a joker! he's got good entertainment value..
varunba08 5 months ago
he's not angry, he's passionate
vwazp 6 months ago 4
3 years later and we're set for a worldwide economic collapse by the enđ of the year. Obviously Taleb was right.
publicanimal 6 months ago 3
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Has Taleb said anything about Extreme Value Analysis? I could not find a single word about it in the book (The Black Swan).
uRRonin 6 months ago
He was amazingly prescient.
TheSanityInspector 7 months ago
So are all this people very blind to what Taleb is saying?
nvanwensen 7 months ago
look at 4:48- Teleb's like, "women, you're talking out of your ass! go home and cook or something.."
cisdolce 8 months ago 8
@cisdolce It was beautiful! She mentioned how we need to be "forward thinking," totally not getting that the very idea that we can think forward is the whole problem.
ATL45 7 months ago
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cisdolce 8 months ago
Fuck ! That was like an intellectual orgasm!!!! (understanding this guy) He needs to collaborate with Ron Paul
vortexy1 9 months ago
Hyper-bull?
fiandrhi 9 months ago
Taleb is wonderful....
the woman, that make the questions... it's stupid or just maddening???
lalo487 9 months ago
look at the frustration on his face, he just wants to beat those bitches to death with a chair
visa 9 months ago
Must be an inverse relationship to hair and intelligence, considering Talib and these two bimbos.
pretorious700 9 months ago
He's absolutely wonderful.
QuadrigaConsulting 10 months ago
why does he talk so abstractly? just talk about this: bush and the democrats forced affirmative action lending which caused the meltdown.
knightschwartz 10 months ago
@knightschwartz,
i think it has to do with intelligence... i think.
loudandright 10 months ago
He sounds like the grandfather I wish I had - "wise common sense".
Most institutions everywhere (especially governments) seem to be run either by the morally bankrupt or overeducated / inexperienced "me" generation who never lived through the 70's/80's recession and rose rapidly to high levels of incompetence - you have to invest for yourself and be your own expert - or your done!
burmanhands 10 months ago
Mr.Taleb is a freaking Genius!
I am reading his book "fooled by randomness".
Magnificent stuff !
ET
DancingET 11 months ago
@DancingET I am reading his latest book, the Black Swan.After seeing the passion he displays on this talk show, i can say that is very similar to the way he writes. Terrific stuff !
I keep thinking - how incredible this guy must feel to have been validated in such a big way on the global stage. He writes about how we do what we do because we are looking for validation -from others.His open scorn for "experts" is so refreshing.
Fred Hayek still lives !
nagee76 11 months ago
that image of mark urban made me feel the same as that small child in fight club when tyler durden messes around with the reel.
justnotcricket 11 months ago
Nassim Taleb is bang on when he talks about the "incentive to make money on a steady basis" claiming they are taking no risk.. collecting bonuses each year .. without taking into account the "blow up".. and he is also correct about bogus measures.. if they were so good? in the words of Hugh Hendry (Plasticine Man in Invisible Hands - Drobny) "How do smart people keep f*cking it up!?"
ChristopherAdderley 11 months ago
Volga One, you shouldn't chop this up.
pogovoreem 1 year ago
WTF? Why is this video all chopped up?
kenstaman 1 year ago
@kenstaman The other commenters were very boring if I remember correctly.
Malthus0 11 months ago
In order to solve America's Financial Problems, we must prevent Cost Overruns - we must underestand Uncertainty and Risk - learn HOW at my channel - read my book "Cost Overruns" on Amazon.com only $2.99 on Kindle
CostAnalyst 1 year ago
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Damn, Taleb, stop stuttering and spit it out. The OTC Derivative Market with a notional value of $600- $1500 Trillion dollars is collapsing because investors were sold CDO's stuffed with Mortgage Back Securities that contained NO MORTGAGES in them!!!. Death of the Dollar and the Anglo Empire. GAME OVER!!!!!!
traynickel 1 year ago
"they got a noble for it by the way".............feels like i'm watching a movie..!!
ryshabh11 1 year ago
"they got a noble for it by the way"
ryshabh11 1 year ago
Interesting aside on the Nobel prize: the prize for economics wasn't originally one of the categories... some people say that it is politically motivated to spread the ideology of free markets and free banking... from what this guy is saying that would seem to make sense...
p.s. this is not conspiratorial, it's simply coincidence or like minded people rewarding like minded people or power begetting power or something...
Peace
MrBobbillo 1 year ago
It turns out he was right. It was really just starting...
gamenorus 1 year ago 29
I like his points (I've read The Black Swan), but I worry about people who'll misunderstand his point and respond with "let's take all the statistical analysis out of finance and economics because it does this". That's a step backwards. What we really need to do is to fix the models and to build in safeguards in case the models are still wrong.
minderbinder8 1 year ago
he wasn't wrong
capitola 1 year ago
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Date Russian women and marry her gettop5.info
EmmaJakn 1 year ago
these two women have the slightest clue what they are talking about.
Nassim atleast is partially aware of the problem of the financial structure.
What discredits this man (including the TED incident), is his temper and speech style.
It's just unpersuasive to hear someone repeat "I don't know" and rush words.
rainzoro 1 year ago 2
@rainzoro Just keep in mind that people have an incentive to try and convince you they know. In my humble opinion, the main point Taleb is pushing here is that there will ALWAYS be uncertainty, and in fact a great deal of it, in the future. For example: no one foresaw the fall of the Soviet Union [save the Lubavitcher Rebbe who is a prophet.]
aaronhedberg 1 year ago
@rainzoro I find it re-assuring to hear someone repeat the words "I don't know". Makes me think I can trust him.
wheezechisel 1 year ago 2
@rainzoro What TED incident? Do you have a link to his TED talk? I cannot Google it. Maybe they removed the video from the internet?
TheBrotherMouzone 1 year ago
@TheBrotherMouzone check his wikipedia page
rainzoro 1 year ago
@rainzoro I don't see anything about any TED incident on his Wikipedia page.
TheBrotherMouzone 1 year ago
@TheBrotherMouzone sry it's wiki page on TED not nassim
rainzoro 1 year ago
@rainzoro Ok there is a short discussion there about his talk. But ok, looks like his talk is nowhere available then..
TheBrotherMouzone 1 year ago
The banks believed their own bullshit because it rewarded them so well - in the short term .....
JSavic 1 year ago
We hate uncertainty... We need to understand everything.. and if it doesn't exist, we make it up, with models and statistics and stories.. kind of like... religion?
spnsirTV 1 year ago 2
He is the contemporary Socrates: "I know that I do not know" !
IlGiglioNero 1 year ago 31
@IlGiglioNero I know. Almost everything he says is very compelling, so, his explanation in The Black Swan notwithstanding, I really can't understand why he would single out Plato as the embodiment of what he calls "Platonicity" or "nerd knowledge" -- Plato's Socrates is perhaps the most powerful and influential proto-skeptic in our intellectual history, and I've always seen Plato's theory of forms as an admission that our reality is imperfect and incomprehensible, inferior to a higher reality...
ShipperS7 9 months ago 2
@IlGiglioNero all i know is that i know nothing ;)
yoyuepz 6 months ago
Hilarious. He's in a nutshell saying that there are some things you simply cannot predict, so build the system on robustness to withstand the unexpected hits when they happen. Then the woman to his right basically says we just have to be more "forward looking" and be better at predicting. Basically she's saying we'd be better off just predicting the unpredictable. (That's when you see Taleb look at her and frown :)
toluca56 1 year ago
The essence of the contemporary monetary system is very easy to understand, dogmas, superstitions and unawareness keep people in a state of weakness, in a state of vulnerability. The financial system is a zero sum game and it's played on our lives. Human beings are often very dangerous.
Grazie del video :)
neoplastik 1 year ago
i think its not so much that the measures of risk are fundamentally flawed but the failure of the public to recognize and take into account risk. people tend to become optimists when it is favourable for them to think so. also, when someone is trying to sell you a derivative or share, they're bloody not likely going to emphasize the point that you might lose all that money overnight? they're more likely to play down the risk and disregard it even, no?
busybee89 1 year ago
The constant cuts were really annoying, especially since I wanted to hear Rogoff's (probably silly) responses.
baseballnolie34 1 year ago
i'd like to see Taleb debate Robert Merton or Myron Scholes
goPistons06 1 year ago
He's not angry, just passionate as to what he believes. I agree with his points, most of the great findings and inventions in history were made out of a black swan event which was unprecedented.
Value at risk does take into account extremes, but the data can only be taken of what has happened, and hence is not adept to an unprecedented event.
zahablog 1 year ago
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zahablog 1 year ago
It's farce to believe that because you've studied mathematical models for years in school that you understand how the world works. Economics is not a hard science, and the more they try to make it one, the less relevant it becomes. I love that Taleb starts from the basis that study all you want, you will never understand the intricacies of the world. "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design." - FA Hayek
publicanimal 1 year ago
Learned about this guy just from seeing photo of him with Tim Ferriss. Good he knows that the Federal Reserve helped cause this, the artificially low interest rates allowed for economic expansion which didn't have the demand to support it, causing a recession.
hughtub 1 year ago
He is lucky like what he said about Casanova.
There may be many men like him who "we" have not discovered because they are dead or what.
linjiahao 1 year ago
Thanks for your comments at 4:11, Mr. Taleb. I feel much better now! :D. In all seriousness, this man's writings are witty and compelling. AFAIK, VAR and cVAR are still used everywhere in risk models... scary.
Ainznando 1 year ago
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Ainznando 1 year ago
Does anywhere know where one can get the full version of this interview?
Witnessthefitness84 1 year ago
@Witnessthefitness84 BBC Newsnight 2008/10/10. I am trying to dload the torrent (search Google) but there's a lack of seeds right now (situ could change). I have searched thebox.bz to no avail but you may have better luck. Pls let me know if you find it!
Ainznando 1 year ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
This guy Taleb is full of shit.... He mixes truth with disinfo.... Any poker player can tell you he is a total liar the way the uses his hands and doesn't sit still.. LOL he wants you to believe Trillionaire Banksters are Stupid.. and don't know what they're doing.. Wake Up you idiots!!!
YankeeClippa 1 year ago
@YankeeClippa lawl. I think you need to wake up. idiot .
hydrolist1 1 year ago
@hydrolist1 I'm wide awake and if you can't see Taleb is a bullshit disinfo spewing jerkoff with mediocre acting skills then Ur either a totally brain dead mind controlled chump or you're attempting to intentionally mislead the dumbed down sheeple with your jackass comment
YankeeClippa 1 year ago
@YankeeClippa lawl. You still need to wake up. Idiot.
hydrolist1 1 year ago
the beginning of the end or the end of the beginning
Models around PD, LGD EAD are all made of thin air
hydroptere 1 year ago
Taleb is intimidatingly insightful.
Most people have learnt to get on with serious-sounding BS.
I can see why Taleb frightens them.
acrobat741 1 year ago
Can Taleb's theories be applied to not only the financial markets, but to the Multicultural societal models advocated by Western governments and experts? Everyone assumes, for example, that importing millions of Muslims, Africans, and Latin Americans to industrialised countries will have no consequences. Taleb's family originated in Lebanon, which had (still has) its own problems with the Multi-Cult model of society (i.e., it failed).
whitekuduone 1 year ago
He's not angry. these days people are coached on how to act on tv, so you have to keep you head very still but move your hands alot. If you raise you voice 2 much the box amplifies this and if you do move your head a bit, it looks like its bouncing around inside a box! So this would be normal in the real world, its just that tv distorts. He is a clever bloke though, so bring on the philosopher rulers!
Pittounikos 1 year ago
that anchor is way too unqualified to....
rivershoe 1 year ago
I just started reading the Black Swan & yes it is quite complex. & yes It's hard to really get a handle on what he is saying exactly ? Where does he stand ? What exactly does that mean to become more "robust" Now again I just started the book but I hope he provides some solutions. I mean I think he kind of is stating the obvious - yes there is much we don't know but we do know something. Dont we?
rushrushrushfan 1 year ago
Preach!!!!! This is not difficult to understand, coming from the 'hood.
wailflower 1 year ago
genius at hes best
Ulterior1980 1 year ago
Mr. Taleb is not wrong and the idiots in power are clueless.
rohr808 1 year ago
Bankers and traders take enormous amounts of risk that puts stakeholder's equity at jeopardy. Bankers and traders are rewarded by how much money they make. To make more money, they take more risk, and as a reward for their hard-work they take home huge bonuses. If they risk end up sour, they may still have a job, but if they don't, they walk away with nice severance packages, while shareholders lose by a drop in the stock price. Bankers and traders win no matter what.
JSan898123 1 year ago
Nassim is the intellectuals intellectual and it just shows you how ridiculous these people are around him on this BBC TV show.
HyperColours 1 year ago 2
@dougIassbickford I'm trying to remember, but I think that might be the British pronunciation of it. I seem to remember my English teacher saying it that way (although she was Irish), considering Taleb was taught in Oxford this certainly could make sense. It also makes contextual sense as he was just talking about how people talk about him exaggerating. Hope this helps :).
PhilipWaterfield 1 year ago
@PhilipWaterfield replace taught with teaches
PhilipWaterfield 1 year ago
@dougIassbickford hyperbole
PhilipWaterfield 1 year ago
Goddamn you can see in his eyes how the 2 dumb cunts annoy him
MistaFrista 1 year ago 3
@MistaFrista Just watching them is painful
nuclearcollision 1 year ago
I like Taleb, but he really does have a bad habbit of pointing out the need to get rid of all of our models for understanding risk without explaining how markets and capitalism will function without them.
mocarro 1 year ago
@mocarro
I agree that Taleb is a little extreme, but a lot of the things he proposes we abolish are not really all that essential to the stability of our financial system. Many complex derivatives are nothing more than speculative tools which serve to provide more leverage under the guise of reducing risk. Remember, Taleb is an options trader so he's not against all derivatives only those we don't understand or whose risk we can't adequately quantify.
tlreddragon 1 year ago
@mocarro - that's the whole point to what Mr. Taleb is saying. These models of so called risk are useless, and that derivatives, equity markets and anything else that use "risk models" to convey a sense of legitimacy are at its core casinos. He is trying to tell you that when people put money into equity markets and the like, they should know that they are placing money on a roulette table and anything these bankers tell you about the absence of risk is a whole lot of b.s.
rohr808 1 year ago
He is an American hero.
eatandtravel 1 year ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
The guy offers nothing everytime you see him.
soml 1 year ago
Wow. Talib is the first prof who I see talking in public reasonably. You can learn so much, and understand and apply successfully many things nowadays. It's a society of information and know-how, by the means of analytic reduction and simplification. And exactly these two methods work mostly, but when they fail they do so epically. There are 4 Masters and PHDs on the screen in the discussion, but 3 of them are blind dumb b**** who just don't get it. So this is our society,clever dumbasses, gosh!
Torrriate 1 year ago 2
When they were in college, they were drunks.
akprince213 1 year ago
once the jooz set up the Federal Reserve in 1915, the dollar began to fall, and now its lost 98% of its value.
borisbmx 1 year ago
But research, and if you play it well, silver then water and phosphorus will make you some nice wealth so you can raise a nice family. Something this world seriously lacks more than it lacks adequate food and energy.
The water and phosphorus being very long term investments. Once uranium sells off it should be a great investment as well. You could play the miners.
Well that was a ramble.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
too, the problem is the volatility of the markets. It will keep affecting demand and thus lower the prices significantly as you saw in the summer 2008. But with peak phosphorus coming, and people needing to eat, you really cannot lose. Potash the fertilizer company would be an OK way to play it.
CGW is a water ETF, it is just not a good one, investing in things like this are not as easy as of now, however they eventually will be.
You do not have to believe an anonymous guy on the internet
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
But will shall see. You will have to stay on your toes. You could buy silver now like lots of people are doing, I simply personally believe lots of them are going to be flushed out in the next leg down.
After you made some money there, you will then be able to invest long term in what will make you a lot this century, it is just not easy to invest in them unless you have a 100 million dollars or so.
Water, Phosphorus. With peak oil, alternative energies, oil, natural gas will all be good
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
inflation. As Hugh Hendry says, it will happen, just NOT yet. Look at the euro, it is in trouble, the head of Societie Generale in France says a break up is inevitable, this is bullish for the dollar, not good for commodities like gold/silver. But this will not go on forever, and if the economy continues to suffer, you can count on the US to pass more stimulus.
So what I am trying to say is, when you see silver under 10 dollars, buy it, I know a few multi millionaires that see silver 200.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
deflation, and it did not work. They continued down a deflationary spiral for 20 years. I personally am now in Hugh Hendry's camp, the Chinese are not immune (their GDP is high because they are building entire cities no one lives in yet) and the world will suffer through another deflationary 'collapse' in the markets. At this point, things like silver that the inflationists have been championing will be incredibly cheap, and the continued government spending will now completely insure hyper
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
Marc Faber is one of my favorite economists. He is convinced the dollar will eventually be worth zero, which rightfully so, in order to pay our 13 trillion worth of debt, and Obama's additional 1.3 trillion annual deficit, plus our future obligations, the Fed will have to monetize the debt.
Now, Marc Faber was hosting a discussion at a Russian conference and Hugh Hendry spoke. He made me start thinking a little differently. He points out the Japanese trying inflating their way out of
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
As for my initial response to you, I apologize, that was really uncalled for. There was no need to throwing insults. I just get tired of this path of insanity. We will eventually be at war with Iran, and then all hell will really break lose. You seem to think I am just not willing to fight for my country and am a pussy or something, wrong, I will fight for the right reasons.
We simply cannot afford to keep fighting these wars. However we do a lot of things we cannot afford to do.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
Please give me one good reason why we should give Israel billions of dollars a year. Just one logical reason. "God will curse us if we don't" does not count as a logical reason.
Look if the American people, a lot of Americans think the same as you, want to keep going down this path fine. I will make a shit load of money off the inevitable collapse of the dollar. And I am harmed, any muslim that wants to do me or mine harm will be put down, same goes with anyone else.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
Wow dude just wow. Maybe you should listen to the fucking people explain why they are attacking you. It has absolutely everything to do with Israel. Or maybe you can explain to me why Osama Bin Laden is attacking us. Because Osama Bin Laden has made himself clear, and the answer is Israel.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
i once met and had a chat with this taleb nassim and never had an idea who he was until the 2008 bankcrash.
Berialavrenti 1 year ago
You are absolutely fucking retarded if you think you are a fiscal conservative and at the same time advocate destroying this nation's wealth through perpetual war.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
lol, yea all them "terrists just be hatin our freedoms!"
Israel does not factor into the equation obviously. So what we should do is destroy US wealth by spending one trillion plus dollars to destroy the goods this country still actually does make (bombs, tanks, planes).
Ron Paul never said they were justified by the way, he simply tries to explain to incredibly ignorant people why terrorists are in fact attacking us. And it sure as hell is not because they hate our freedoms.
EuropeanAmericanMan 1 year ago
Taleb's comment were "cut" because the bald man was also commenting so you got soundbites. It wasn't fluid. He does not believe in "theories" nor does he believe that because something happened in 1929 that it is necessarily going to "play out" today as it did then. He also believes randomness or "chance" plays a much bigger role in our collective lives than we think. Think of these CDS's and other intricate economic "instruments" and the fact no one really understood them.
kentucy9999 1 year ago
and you are clueless if you thinkt that americans have to do proactive national defense! First of all the U.S. cannot afford it financially. Second, your proactive defense has been a total failure! In what way has it helped the safety and prosperity of the U.S.? It has made the U.S. totally unpopular around the world (= less safety) and worsened the fiscal deficit dramatically. (= less prosperity)
very smart!
edwinhermet 1 year ago
He does NOT say that terrorist attacks are justified! but are not happening without a reason. If you get attacked in your country makes you angry (afghanistan or wherever). This anger combined with no education and poverty can make you do foolish things. He doesn't say the reason makes the attacks acceptable. But he does not see the situation getting better by being involved in wars that the U.S. cannot afford anyway!
edwinhermet 2 years ago
I'm just reading the book by Taleb, Fooled by Randomness, and his points are valid. I think what he is saying is that models and forecasts are not inherently useless, but that we interpret them poorly and wrongly assess risk. Past events/data will not correctly predict the future. Taleb expresses this well in his book, but I have to agree that on this show he did not convey his message in layman terms, and not very structured.
EMVienna 2 years ago 2
Ron Paul 2012 Abolish the federal and state government, and of course the Federal Reserve sham
358Liberty 2 years ago
i wonder how taleb makes/made trading decisions. if you do not accept any model or forecast that can give you at least a hint of what could be happening in the future then how do you make management decisions? he himself wakes up every day thinking he doesnt understand the world. i personally like taleb, but i dont understand this point.
citaro06 2 years ago
@citaro06 I understand this, I got some experience in trading.I don't trust in Models.Trade with news about the market and your feeling about the trade.This will let you win!!
MASTERTRADERSAM 2 years ago
@citaro06 Taleb describes his basic investment strategy in "The Black Swan". He calls it the "Barbell" strategy, putting the vast majority of his assets in highly conservative investments and using about 10-20% to play around with high-risk investments that could pay off big time in the event of a Black Swan. He said he had only had four good days in his career as a trader, but the winnings from any one of those days would have been enough for a lifetime.
Seasass 1 year ago
you know what, like Warren Buffet says, its better to be approximately right than precisely wrong.
The world is complicated. but there are basic components and mechanics to this chaos. We have to stop focusing on the complex results, we have to look at the big picture, core problems that create crisis.
Taleb is angry because he feels angry at people around him failing to admit the huge impacts of human fallibility. if the pilot doesn't know what he's doing, i'd be pretty scared too.
yurikomuro 2 years ago 10
He is a genius!His words are true.You don t belive me? Think about his ideas ! I would give him the Nobel!
MASTERTRADERSAM 2 years ago 2
clone Taleb
nxi145 2 years ago
plus one
anyakisel 2 years ago
nassim is god
raymajdalani 2 years ago
Wow, imagine that. Basing important decisions on scientific reasoning and study. Of course thats the problem. Greed, going along with the mob, and ego cause people to be irrational.
ridewave444 2 years ago
This guy is a fucken genius, for purely pointing out that markets are comforted by models which don't work he should be given a Nobel. Ratings agencies and Big 4 accounting firms should be dissolved and rebuilt with people who aren't susceptible to "well bla bla bla" wrote a paper on it so therefore it must be true".
loungingaround 2 years ago 38
Yeah, if Merton & Scholes got the Nobel and LTCM blew up by following their models, and Taleb has debunked them even to their face, then that sits well for Taleb. His point is that economists assume the future will be like the past, so they use means and standard deviations and beta to construct portfolios and figure risks going forward that are all based on a dead past, not realizing that past imbalances can lead to future crises that are NEW. NASDAQ 5,000 was a joke not a solid trendline.
JoeyFudd 2 years ago
When I started reading his book I thought it was nonsense, by the moment I finished I realized he was genius.
ElBurroQueVaAMarte 2 years ago 2
we need more men like this
MichaelDeMichele 2 years ago 20
Mr. Taleb is just impassioned, and is tired, it appears, of fools....as to his book Black Swan, I have only heard about it recently and I do plan to read it. I'll see if I can see fact mistakes....we're only human..., but making false and misleading claims, ie those Mr. Tableb is pointing a damning finger at, that's fraud. Mr. Taleb is far from blaze (blah-zey) and thank god for that!
shtonker8 2 years ago
I'm reading the Black Swan and think it's great, but this guy seems rather obnoxious in-person. Once he got stuck on communicating his point, he couldn't go beyond it. I still don't know if he's pure genius or pure paranoia.
dj504dj 2 years ago
The Black Swan is full of factual mistakes. Had to stop reading it because I was so annoyed. He might be right in principle, but He's terrible at proving his theories.
tdnrarogerg 2 years ago
give some examples and I'll explain why you are wrong.
snakecharmer133 2 years ago
LOL, towards the end dude is talking like the end of the world is coming along..... and she just contunues reading the news.
Nuanceqwest 2 years ago
my god do those people understand the english language. I dont think they were listening.
sysopkc 2 years ago
two stupid biatches! Common sense rules for ever!
AFRIKTODAY 2 years ago
I have read your books. I agree with you. You tell them the truth. They will believe when its too late.
tanyaradic 2 years ago 3
Best policies:
Tear down Socialism
Try the Free Market System
Read the Constitution
mustang607 2 years ago
I hate to break it to you, but we started with the Constitution. Saying that we should read the Constitution and pay attention to it is not a new suggestion at all. The Constitution was a great document, unlike any before it. Unfortunately, it has become clear that it is insufficient, if our goal is to maintain a limited government with focused objectives.
The tenth amendment delegates remaining powers to the states. But then we have the elastic and interstate commerce clauses...too open ended.
jka446 2 years ago
why does this get 3 thumbs down?
akprince213 2 years ago
Bitchez didn't understand a word Nassim was talking about. How do these bitchez got their jobs anyways?
YouriCarma 2 years ago 5
Are you talking to me? I guess you need to wake up a bit , kiddo.
wwwarburg 2 years ago
Learn how to speak 5 more langauges , kiddo.
wwwarburg 2 years ago
I think you should revert to some basic english lessons and forget the other 4 languages my friend... then you would have realised that my initial comment was in support of him, and not a criticism. Nice try though. あんまりかしこくないなー！
yoslammer 2 years ago
Sorry I was repliyng to that fly by night incompetent sucker of
yoslammer
wwwarburg 2 years ago
economy professors and everybody else who built their career around the established portfolio theories will never admit their defeat even if there will be 10 more black swans. they will always find new excuses about why the reality didn't fit their theory in the particular cases.
DillonSundance 2 years ago 2
Taleb, you are awesome! Keep speaking your mind!
afendiamir 2 years ago 8
3:44 "...Tie wearing economists..." LOL
afendiamir 2 years ago 2
this guy is THE shit. full stop. his website is ace too
yoslammer 2 years ago
You are shit, mediocristan , mediocre arrogant incomeptent. I am a trader , I trade in my fund my own money. I know NNT since 1984 in NYC and I'm honoured. You are a bunch of idiot determinst. Your totally clear incompetence is under everyone eyes: res ipsa loquor , imbecil.
Very likely you are a poor clerck of some fly by night corporation. Imbecil , shut up study and than came back.
wwwarburg 2 years ago
Learn how to speak english man.
yoslammer 2 years ago
Comment removed
wwwarburg 2 years ago
''...does this require a mindset change?'' - Presenter
Jesus Christ, it's as if she didn't listen to a single word he said.
simonandtheghost 2 years ago 4
The journalist and the other two panelists are clueless.
They should have left Taleb on his own to express his opinions. He is very astute as to the reasons of the crisis.
urasa1 2 years ago
Keynesian economics is a pseudo-science
it allows "the powers at be" to manipulate their way to stealing trillions
TheFlex21 2 years ago
I have a question for anyone who has read his book. If everyone around him is wrong, then what does he recommend we do in terms of investment? Should we even invest in bonds? Gold?
AChrisL 2 years ago
He believes you should invest in very safe areas - government bonds etc. and put a small amount into areas that can benefit from black swans and unexpected events. he also outlines ways of mitigating the effects of black swans. His "black swan hedge fund" has benefited from the crisis by about 20bn apparently. His earlier book "fooled by randomness" is probably a better book if you are interested in learning more.
ljr35 2 years ago 2
Thanks!
AChrisL 2 years ago
he doesn't say everyone around him is wrong, he says the world is simply too complicated to make perfect predictions and thus any investment based upon a complex model that "cages risk" isn't fundamentally sound and eventually equivalent to gambling. Ideally, you highly diversify and invest in things that contain real value and/or productive capacity such as commodities and businesses.
charleshoskinson 2 years ago
Solid rational consciousness structure. The best complement for a romantic new ager worldview.
clarinetato 2 years ago
He can not explain his argument because it is far to complicated to understand in a period of six minutes. He is frustrated because he knows he is right and most people dont have the ability to understand. Read his books and try explaining them to people and you will sound the same way.
jbeaotn04 2 years ago 26
YES! You are one of the people who get it. Media is dumbing us down, it is dumbing society down, it is dumbing politics down, because it is such now, that whoever in TV debated delivers the best "one line punch", gets the best standing in the eyes of the audience, barring prior ideological standing.
If you can't DUMB your point down to a ten-second smart-sounding line, you lose on TV, no matter if you're Garry kasparov or Einstein #2 in terms of smarts.
neglesaks 2 years ago 11
Well, then, given that the media is so influential and so predictable at dumbing complex realities down to comprehensible 10-second recaps digestible by the short-attention-span crowd, then that should create some exploitable opportunities in the marketplace.
That's why I buy chicken stocks at the first mention of 'mad cow' disease occuring in North America. Shoppers react first, and get around to digesting the reality if they can make the time. Journalists report the shoppers' reactions.
Leutchik 2 years ago
Let me try to sum up in less than 6 minutes.
People make decisions based on models and theories. Models and theories are *by definition* incomplete because they are simplifications of reality and not reality itself. Therefore any decision based on a theory is a decision based on incomplete data.
squeezetruck 2 years ago 3
I tend to agree. I'd put it a slightly different way: That the theory is NOT the data, the same way that the map is not the territory. If the theory, model or framework used to explain somethign is thought up by people with no knwoledge of the facts or little respect for them, then the understanding conveyed by an otherwise good-sounding theoretical explanation will be flawed or ultimately counterfactual.
neglesaks 2 years ago
I agree; I'm not finished reading the book, and anytime someone asks me what I'm reading and what the book is about, I have no idea what to say, and I always end up feeling like I am discrediting Taleb.