America will be wiping their ass with pinecones sooner than I thought. America will not be able to buy walmart toilet papers from China because it will be too expensive.
now its too late to buy gold and other commodities, the prices are already too jacked up, the more u buy, the more peter makes. If you wanted to buy gold, you should of bought it in 06 or 07.
These dipshits didn't listen to a word Schiff said. I'll be sure to look for their books that I'm sure they worte where they warned us of an economic/real estate/credit collapse.
Spot on...it only makes sense how many folks from ALL walks of life had more than an idea what a financial mess was in the pipeline. We should never make the mistake of thinking only bankers and investors had the foresight to have seen the mess heading our way.... also can't underestimate the power of a blue collar.
Unfortunately Peter Schiff will probably not win a senate place because the real rulers of the USA will not allow it.
Why?
Recessions/depressions are manufactured by the banking cartels which run the FED. Recessions allow big businesses to purchase smaller businesses at low costs. It also destroys the middle class in terms of jobs, wages, and savings widening the gap between rich and poor.
It would be naive to think that Peter Schiff was the only expert to see this depression coming.
If there is no inflation then why is the dollar loosing value?
If you expand the total amount of dollars in the world - without increasing the output of service and industry in the US - there will be inflation. Its that simple.
First, the dollars only returning to its pre-crisis baseline. Second, foreign exchange values and values within our economy are two different things. For example, if Japan started paying down its debt after this recession all else being equal, their currency would rise against the dollar, even though we have no inflation.
If Inflation is the Increase in Money supply.. Then yes with interest Rates to borrow at 0 to.25% what bank wouldn't borrow at this rate. Its just that banks atm are hoarding all this newly created money, give it some time we will see Inflation that is out of control. It's just that banks that are borrowing are putting their newly created capital into the markets, and not into the consumers hands just yet, that is why we are seeing the Market go up because of this inflation.
Inflation involves higher prices, not monetary expansion. If the money supply expands, but at a rate below that of the real value of aggregate goods and services, there is still deflation. If the velocity of money slows down and the monetary expansion doesn't keep up, that's deflationary.
The problem with Schiff's ideas is that they seem to make sense on the surace, but when you actually look at the numbers, they don't come close to adding up.
And banks, consumers, investors, hoarding money, it means that the demand for money is greater than the supply. With monetary expansion and a return to a sustainable GDP growth rate (related to velocity of money), instead of trying to rebalance a larger share of labor and other resources left idle than the previous malinvetment justifies, we can rebalance the economy at full employment. Which works better? To have millions unemployed, or to have everyone still employed for lower real wages?
We're more productive at reallocating capital when more people are working, while real wages decrease. Note that this takes care of the sticky wages problem, allowing for the capital readjustment. At the same time, the real value of debt decreases, so that irresponsible lenders will receive less real interest and principal so that the debt problems are solved. We take a temporary hit on wages and money earned on previous debt, while keeping employment high to reallocate as quickly as possible
With nominal GDP targeting, when the real GDP increases, monetary stimulus makes up the difference to reach the target. This keeps the money supply constant relative to productivity with the benefits mentioned above.
EVen better, once the Fed earns credibility with such a target, the market expectations will act as if there was monetary expansion, without the Fed needing to expand the money supply at all. Hence, inflation has a leash when there's no real monetary expansion.
I just wonder how they can pay the wages if there is a hyper inflation scenario. The government can print the money for its workers, but how will businesses get enough money to pay such high wages to employees if there is 20-50% inflation a month?
Who said anything abotu hyper-inflation? When money velocity is low, more money can be created without rising prices. Then when the economy recovers, the Fed can reign in the extra money by selling the securities on its balance sheet, raising reserve requirments, and raising the federal funds rate.
In order for there to be hyper-infllation , there has to be enough money created to keep it going. The Fed has more than doubled the monetary base, but most of it hasn't gone into the economy because banks are hoarding money. Even with historic rates of inflation by US standards, we will be nowhere near hyper-inflation. If we do get to historically high infation rates, the Fed can either keep interest rates constant, so that money velocity is restrained or can raise interest rates to lower it
If interest rates were raised? Don't you think it would make it very hard for the govt to service it's debt. Especially with the deficits that are being run. Get real now!!
Interest rates would go up whether there is inflation or if the Fed contracts the money supply. Inflation raises interest rates on new borrowing to account for the inflation premium.
Well we better pray for bumper crops, and bumper production in everything then, otherwise the Debt cycle is going to get ugly! If I hoard my debt free money long enough I probably could put alot debtors under a bridge begging for food, because they won't get the money plus the interest to pay back their debts. That is the bad thing about our debt based system is that the interest is never put into the system. It's one big upside down pyramid that at some point, has to tip over.
Time always tells the truth, so all we got is time to see what tomorrow brings.. I have a felling we will see Inflation in all Goods because of lack of expansion as you put it can't keep up with the expansion of paper money! I would prefer a Gold currency, it forces saving as well as work to make the economy work, instead of doing nothing for everything.. The human mind can't stand to watch some get everything, while those that work hard get nothing, at some point non will work to have nothing!
Banks create money when they loan there excess reserves, when depositors demand more money than what the bank has in reserves they borrow more money to pay depositors, that money eventually ends up in a bank where it goes through the same cycle and is multiplied every time. the fractional reserve system expands the money supply, increases in the money supply causes inflation, inflation causes your purchasing power to go down, hence prices go up.
The definition of inflation is monetary expansion. Higher prices is just a consequence of inflation, not inflation itself. In a bad economy where everyone loses their jobs, yes there is price decrease because demand for certain items will fall and fall drastically. You can define that as "deflation" and as peter says, there will be "deflation" if you price things in gold (real money). However, if the monetary expansion beats the "deflation", then prices in dollars will rise.
But, Schiff's definition of inflation is simply wrong. Inflation involves rising prices. For example, if the money supply increases, but more slowly than does output, then you have deflation, not inflation.
I don't think its Schiff's definition. It is the definition. Inflate means blow up or expand. Inflation therefore means expansion. What exactly is expanding? Isn't it money supply? Output on the other hand is a variable. Some things have a lot of output, say water while other things have little output like gasoline. Output for different commodities varies with time. Say if there is a drought, output for water could go down which makes the prices of water go up. That's not inflation.
Um, "increase" and "inflate" mean the same thing in this context. When the monetary supply increases, you can say it inflates, but this is not the technical economic definition of inflation. Inflation in this context refers to rising prices.
I don't see how increase and inflate mean the same thing. They are related, yes but not the same. Whatever the technical definition of inflation, prices of goods can rise and fall regardless of monetary policy due to demand and supply. I do not consider that as inflation or deflation. I guess you mean that the technical definition of inflation is an aggregate measure of all factors together, ie money supply, demand and output on prices of a certain commodity in a certain market. Is that right?
Price inflation occurs when increases in prices are due to the money supply rising relative to the real value of goods and services produced. This does not have to involve monetary expansion, It can occur if productivity falls, but the money supply remains the same.
What would you then consider the technical definition of price inflation solely due to increase in money supply? Would "monetary inflation" be an accurate technical term?
If we remove money from the equation and do barter trade. Say today, you can exchange 1 apple for 1 orange. Maybe 5 years later, people prefer apples to oranges, or there was an apple famine and you can exchange 1 apple for 2 oranges. Does that mean that apples "inflated" while oranges "deflated"? I don't think so. Inflation and deflation is meaningless without the context of money.
why would output increase if the whole reason for deflation is that demand is down, because there is less money in the consumer's hand to buy goods and services. they expand the money supply so people can consume with new loans. But the products consumed would be at a higher price than otherwise set by the law of supply and demand. artificial booms that when over will leave the consumer deeper in debt and with high inflation once the surpluses end.
at 3:56 someone needs to tell this guy that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, which is going through the roof. Higher prices are the consequense of inflation. Why do prices continue to go up 1-2% anualized when demand has fallen sharply. That dude doesn't know what inflation is.
Yeah, he makes a good point about benefiting from the high unemployment. But we'll need to get the unemployment rate up to about 85% to combat the coming inflation. If we fully nationalize the banking industry, healthcare, and all manufacturing, that should get us there.
I am so sick of hearing that inflation is "under wraps!" Where in the hell are these people buying their groceries? Oops, my bad, I forgot that government inflation measures don't count food and energy.
I can't believe that schiff dude said short walmart. He is somehow expecting hyper inflation, and the most he can do is double his money if it goes to zero. And he completely misses the idea that there are walmarts in china selling goods to chinese and getting rmb. He really has a one track mind.
that's EXACTLY what I was thinking, they have wal-mart's up and running in China and Japan!!!! Maybe he thinks their growth there won't make up for the losses due to inflation here...
So while people wait for walmart to go to zero they might even consider shorting something else. I know Schiff is a cheap guy just from what he says, but come on if walmart is like saks, then what about saks's business. What would that be like? He could pick a better short. There are tons of retailers to choose from.
u have a zero track brain. ur clueless. walmart is an american company that deals in dollars. the dollar is on the verge of collapse, thus dont buy any US stocks.
Actually I can't tell if you are a Sheep of Schiff or are you joking. Do you really believe everything that comes out of Schiff's mouth as truth? You should try and think for yourself instead of follow in someone's footsteps.
Having been a broker before, I can say he is spot on. When jobless numbers are at a 26 year high, and PE ratios on stocks are way to high, there is no reason why the market should still be where it is.
The best you can do on a short is double your money, and in a hyper inflationary scenario that will limit your upside. I can't remember if Schiff said it himself or others like him that the market is up because they are printing money. If that is the case and inflation increases stock prices why would walmart's stock price go down? The worse the economy gets, the more money they will print, and the higher the stocks will go. Don't forget walmart also has earnings in other currencies.
For 1 you are wrong on the shorting part. For 2, the newly printed money is only going to select sectors of the markets (Like banks, GM, etc). Their stock will then go up naturally. Walmart is already using over seas job to get away from taxes etc - once China returns the tarrifs, what do you think will happen then?
You also fail to address price to earning (PE) ratios. When it is 14-25 times what the company is worth, there is no reason for that.
In addition, you must learn that hype sells more stock then sound fundamentals. I think the market crashes in both stock and real estate should have proven this to you by now. Heck, the media does it everyday. It is why many small brokerages wait to see when the big ones jump - because it is the only way to know when something is going to happen with the stock in question.
I am sorry to question Schiff on the shorting part. I should not question the master, so in that respect I am wrong. Thank you for pointing that out.
A quarter of walmart's business is international, and if there is hyper inflation, then the value of that revenue will go to up substantially along with the assets in the other country.
P/E ratios of 14-25 times are normal. Walmart's is 14, so the earnings yield is like 7%, and in the bank you get next to nothing.
I wouldn't look at the P/E of the whole market as a good indicator. Maybe if you looked at it sector by sector, but the number does not matter much at this time.
Sorry it took so long to get back to you - things are chaotic.
Anyway, PE ratio's have been overly inflated for a long time. When we the last time you saw a market that was stable enough so a person invest in it long term with no fear of loss?
Of course the numbers matter. The problem is that everyone is so used to this being the norm that they ignore the fact that it is still a sign of a highly inflated market. MTF
If one actually looks at the market as a whole, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that it is not sustainable, even at it's current 'lows' it is over valued.
Remember also that Schiff is the opposite of a day trader, he goes for the long term. In that small snap shot of time, yes he took a hit. But Looking at it now can you tell me he was that far off?
If there is a positive return in the stock market, then it can beat cash. The stock market just needs to beat cash by a few basis points to account for risk. If the interest rate is 15% then PEs of stocks should be 5-6 or so if you do not look at book values.
I never trusted PE ratios even when the banks were strong. Banks normally have low PEs and they were like 30% of the S&P, so the numbers were not a good measure as a whole, but individual names you can find values.
Yes, things are chaotic and PE is not the only measure of value in a company. Probably if you look at book values stocks are not too over valued.
The problem I see is that that the trending of interest rates was down ever since the peak in the 80's. A falling interest rate increases the price of a stock and other assets. That is normal, but now we have gotten to zero interest rates. An increase will hurt all asset prices and hurt tax revenues.
Good point. With so much money in the system, it will most certainly make its way into the equity markets, and give investors nominal (but not real) gains as we approach massive money velocity. Shorting anything equity-wise right now is VERY dangerous.
If the U.S. currency looses value to the Chinese currency anything imported here from china will be more expensive, hence price will rise causing consumers to consume less from Walmart and more from American producers because of the cheaper dollar. Hence we may even start exporting more ourselves but our standard of living will decline. It all depends on how cheap the dollar gets.
Walmart will most likely increase market share against other retailers but second hand stores will pop up more. Many of the goods in walmart can probably go up 10-20% and some people would not notice. American people are not good at math.
Not only are the hosts continuing to smirk, but they now place bullish comments in the banner below Peter, to mislead the sheeple as much as possible.
All I want to hear from the Asian chick from now on is "Me so horny". I would find that more conducive to dialogue. As for the guy at the end, he can shove his Phillips curve crap right up his end. He's downright evil.
I think he's right in the sense that the velocity of money is lower because of unemployment. It's silly to argue that if by tomorrow everyone of the 10% of unemployed people found jobs that their spending would not have us feel the effects of inflation sooner as it relates to the CPI (consumer price index)
BLS measured unemployment by G.D. era criteria is U6-which is about 16%. U3 is 10%.
CPI doesn't account for the two biggest household expenses, Food & Fuel. Regardless the doubling of the money supply in the last year IS INFLATION. "Velocity" or not the inflation has occurred. Money is being spread to banks, GM, foreign central banks, and on and on....the effects are coming regardless of the employment picture.
I've been doing a TON of research on the inflation vs deflation argument. If you haven't seen it, check out the elliotwave website. He makes some interesting points about near-term deflation that might last alot longer than many people think. The fact of the matter is that the dollar is being heavily shorted and investors are all bracing for inflation. The question is "how long" till it gets here. Schiff has a rather short timeline (cont'd)...
If you've been doing a ton of research on inflation you should know that it's an increase in the money supply, not rising prices. There is no deflation!
Prices can fluctuate up or down in the short run, but the money supply is growing exponentially.
How many times have Schiff and Faber explained this? Not enough, apparently.
First off, yes, I understand the definitions of inflation and deflation. And yes, Schiff and the inflationists are correct that massive price increases are the ultimate destination. But continued price decreases and deflationary forces are still in the cards, and it behooves the smart investor to prepare for both. I should have said "deflationary effects" vice deflation.
But guys like Faber and other are calling it out a further 4 to 5 years. I think the key to success is going against the grain, and right now everyone is betting against the dollar and factoring in inflationary expectations. So what's the near-term angle? In other words, how will everyone "get this wrong"? I think that deflation could be so serious to the point that everyone rules out the possibility of inflation...and then a crisis event triggers immediate and MASSIVE hyperinflation.
I understand what you mean and have the same concerns, but if you listen to Faber, Schiff, or Rogers, then they will always say there is inflation comming into the system no matter how much deflation you see, so you will not have the feeling that there is no possibility of inflation.
The most profitable trade is the most unexpected.
Definitely. One way to play this is "bullet proof" your portfolio on either ends with heavy investments in cash and precious metals. I think the best investment right now is the physical metals (and food, guns, and ammo of course). They are both inflation and deflation proof.
Japan has made it clear according to an article I read on bloomberg that if the yen goes in an "unfavorable" direction vs the dollar they will step-in. By unfavorable I'm pretty sure they mean if the dollar gains too much strength vs the yen.
Schiff is wasting his time talking to the CNBC hosts. It's all BS and it all bad for ya. It either CNBC is desperate for ratings or they enjjoy having there asses handed to them by Schiff.
No don't get me wrong I get what Schiff is doing. But I am saying is these CNBC host are so far gone they are not just drinking the Kool-Aide they are mixing it up. Schiff is doing his public service in waking up the brain dead drones that still watch this rubbish channel. But if the viewers are not getting by now they are nothing more then just mulch or people are no longer watching and they need find something for the overpaid schills to do. 3:53 "Job Loses controls inflation?" What total BS!
I've noticed more and more lately that they let him talk, then he goes away and then they start talking about how he's wrong. I guess that minimizes the smack down because he can't pick apart their arguments if he's not there.
Your are not the only one to notice that. It shows how they don't have any valid arguments at all and how cowardice they are. Look as it as entertainment CNBC has no valid information.
OK so higher stock market is not an effect of inflation, higher GOLD, SILVER, OIL GAS and all other commodities since March of 2009 is not a effect of a 15% lower dollar value.
Last time I checked higher prices is the effect of inflation. Sorry I forgot what the Feds said they would do with $1.3 trillion they plan to print. Was it keep for a rain day or spend it on something?
That was a weird thing to say that warranted elaboration. I think he might have meant something like: the threat of unemployment makes people save more, and since a lot of savings are now going to the perceived safe-heaven of treasuries, it gives some largess to the Federal govt to accumulate debt without resorting to the printing press...
Right, if you believe that buy up some treasures or junk bonds from GE and JP Morgan, they ain't going no where. See how that works out for Yeah. Just leave the physical gold for China and us who think the fed will print.
Geeez, is she a bitch? I've seen her work and she gets down right scary. Why in the world would they put that one on? I figure they feel the need for a bully cause they do not have the horse power to counter a guy like Schiff. CNBC is all about propaganda.
Someone should tell her to do her job and not show such an attitude. I can't wait until the future proves Peter right and we'll see all these videos with her being a bitch and hopefully get fired. hahaha
That one guy who was saying unemployment is a good thing for inflation is a complete idiot. Unemployment isn't going to stop inflation because THE GOV. HAS TO MAKE UP FOR THE CONSUMER AND SPEND EVEN MORE in order to temperley bump up GDP, so they just take the place of the consumer. The problem is, however, the foundation for short economic growth is the gov. and NOT the consumer, so when the gov. steps away to let the economy stand alone (it will eventually have to), it WILL implode.
Get paid to be stupid!!! Hello public education America! Just great! Inflation has been kept under what? WTF is wrong with these people? In which planet do they travel through time to find these ass fucking moronic idiots with their powdered ugly faces? Are these the people, along with the likes of CRUMMY CRAMER, we are expected to listen to ? WTF? Truly indeed, George Orwell must be rolling over his grave.
How can he say inflation has been held in check the money supply is been pumped like a balloon. The prices will rise when the money gets in the system. There is no such thing as a economic rebound when jobs are being cut. There is a such thing as stock markets rising but that is not the economy the true economy we live in is not on wall street and these fools that believe this hype are crazy and these fools on tv a just manipulating the moron american public. wake up people.
Schiff owns POT?? haha. wtf is up with the fast money guys??? they seem like they hate peter. we benefit fom unemployment??? did that boob face just say that? what an elitest thing to say. i'm sitting here on tv pretending to not be a monkey throwing darts at a listing of stocks saying that unemployment is a good thing, haha. if he is talking about in regards to inflation, some one needs to tell this boob face that the philips curve exploded in the stagflation of 70's, please try a again
America will be wiping their ass with pinecones sooner than I thought. America will not be able to buy walmart toilet papers from China because it will be too expensive.
gyozadumpling 1 year ago
chinar
boipinoi604 1 year ago
Hello PhilDeCarolis
I have to admit I am very impressed with the quality of your videos here on youtube.
They are certainly a pleasure to watch as I do enjoy them.
I am sure there is many others who also feel the same about your videos.
Mark McCulloch
MarkMillionaireGuru 2 years ago
now its too late to buy gold and other commodities, the prices are already too jacked up, the more u buy, the more peter makes. If you wanted to buy gold, you should of bought it in 06 or 07.
51674 2 years ago
Google - PBS Frontline The Warning
Watch the report and see how these Libertarian Ideals fucked America up the ass. Watching these teabaggers punch themselves in the face is painful
THEY HAVE KNOW FUCKING CLUE WHAT THEY ARE DOING TO THEMSELVES
Libertarianism, Ayn Rand and the concept of laissez-faire capitalism is a complete joke like Peter Schiff.
robb1031 2 years ago
How can they say inflation is under wraps? OMG....
smasila 2 years ago
moron at 3:57
please think before you open your pie hole
ric0rich 2 years ago
These dipshits didn't listen to a word Schiff said. I'll be sure to look for their books that I'm sure they worte where they warned us of an economic/real estate/credit collapse.
seanannapolis 2 years ago
I don't understand why the US stock market keeps going up?
watcher2987 2 years ago
Spot on...it only makes sense how many folks from ALL walks of life had more than an idea what a financial mess was in the pipeline. We should never make the mistake of thinking only bankers and investors had the foresight to have seen the mess heading our way.... also can't underestimate the power of a blue collar.
lynage1 2 years ago
Unfortunately Peter Schiff will probably not win a senate place because the real rulers of the USA will not allow it.
Why?
Recessions/depressions are manufactured by the banking cartels which run the FED. Recessions allow big businesses to purchase smaller businesses at low costs. It also destroys the middle class in terms of jobs, wages, and savings widening the gap between rich and poor.
It would be naive to think that Peter Schiff was the only expert to see this depression coming.
dazzagazza6969 2 years ago
omg if and when we get jobs again, that means there is gonna be a shitstorm of inflation!
wachman 2 years ago
This idiot thinks there's inflation during a deflationary recession.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
If there is no inflation then why is the dollar loosing value?
If you expand the total amount of dollars in the world - without increasing the output of service and industry in the US - there will be inflation. Its that simple.
InJonatansOpinion 2 years ago 5
First, the dollars only returning to its pre-crisis baseline. Second, foreign exchange values and values within our economy are two different things. For example, if Japan started paying down its debt after this recession all else being equal, their currency would rise against the dollar, even though we have no inflation.
Come on, this isn't complicated.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
If Inflation is the Increase in Money supply.. Then yes with interest Rates to borrow at 0 to.25% what bank wouldn't borrow at this rate. Its just that banks atm are hoarding all this newly created money, give it some time we will see Inflation that is out of control. It's just that banks that are borrowing are putting their newly created capital into the markets, and not into the consumers hands just yet, that is why we are seeing the Market go up because of this inflation.
Budvb 2 years ago
Inflation involves higher prices, not monetary expansion. If the money supply expands, but at a rate below that of the real value of aggregate goods and services, there is still deflation. If the velocity of money slows down and the monetary expansion doesn't keep up, that's deflationary.
The problem with Schiff's ideas is that they seem to make sense on the surace, but when you actually look at the numbers, they don't come close to adding up.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
And banks, consumers, investors, hoarding money, it means that the demand for money is greater than the supply. With monetary expansion and a return to a sustainable GDP growth rate (related to velocity of money), instead of trying to rebalance a larger share of labor and other resources left idle than the previous malinvetment justifies, we can rebalance the economy at full employment. Which works better? To have millions unemployed, or to have everyone still employed for lower real wages?
Zeldovich 2 years ago
We're more productive at reallocating capital when more people are working, while real wages decrease. Note that this takes care of the sticky wages problem, allowing for the capital readjustment. At the same time, the real value of debt decreases, so that irresponsible lenders will receive less real interest and principal so that the debt problems are solved. We take a temporary hit on wages and money earned on previous debt, while keeping employment high to reallocate as quickly as possible
Zeldovich 2 years ago
With nominal GDP targeting, when the real GDP increases, monetary stimulus makes up the difference to reach the target. This keeps the money supply constant relative to productivity with the benefits mentioned above.
EVen better, once the Fed earns credibility with such a target, the market expectations will act as if there was monetary expansion, without the Fed needing to expand the money supply at all. Hence, inflation has a leash when there's no real monetary expansion.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
I just wonder how they can pay the wages if there is a hyper inflation scenario. The government can print the money for its workers, but how will businesses get enough money to pay such high wages to employees if there is 20-50% inflation a month?
panther9mm 2 years ago
Who said anything abotu hyper-inflation? When money velocity is low, more money can be created without rising prices. Then when the economy recovers, the Fed can reign in the extra money by selling the securities on its balance sheet, raising reserve requirments, and raising the federal funds rate.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Schiff and the others keep saying hyper-inflation. I just don't understand how the money can go through the system for it to work.
panther9mm 2 years ago
In order for there to be hyper-infllation , there has to be enough money created to keep it going. The Fed has more than doubled the monetary base, but most of it hasn't gone into the economy because banks are hoarding money. Even with historic rates of inflation by US standards, we will be nowhere near hyper-inflation. If we do get to historically high infation rates, the Fed can either keep interest rates constant, so that money velocity is restrained or can raise interest rates to lower it
Zeldovich 2 years ago
If interest rates were raised? Don't you think it would make it very hard for the govt to service it's debt. Especially with the deficits that are being run. Get real now!!
ELREY120 2 years ago
Interest rates would go up whether there is inflation or if the Fed contracts the money supply. Inflation raises interest rates on new borrowing to account for the inflation premium.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Well we better pray for bumper crops, and bumper production in everything then, otherwise the Debt cycle is going to get ugly! If I hoard my debt free money long enough I probably could put alot debtors under a bridge begging for food, because they won't get the money plus the interest to pay back their debts. That is the bad thing about our debt based system is that the interest is never put into the system. It's one big upside down pyramid that at some point, has to tip over.
Budvb 2 years ago
Time always tells the truth, so all we got is time to see what tomorrow brings.. I have a felling we will see Inflation in all Goods because of lack of expansion as you put it can't keep up with the expansion of paper money! I would prefer a Gold currency, it forces saving as well as work to make the economy work, instead of doing nothing for everything.. The human mind can't stand to watch some get everything, while those that work hard get nothing, at some point non will work to have nothing!
Budvb 2 years ago
Monetary expansion doesn't involve the printing of money. Money is only printed to meet the demands of those withdrawing money from banks.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Banks create money when they loan there excess reserves, when depositors demand more money than what the bank has in reserves they borrow more money to pay depositors, that money eventually ends up in a bank where it goes through the same cycle and is multiplied every time. the fractional reserve system expands the money supply, increases in the money supply causes inflation, inflation causes your purchasing power to go down, hence prices go up.
ELREY120 2 years ago
I can see that you didn't understand a word I posted.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
The definition of inflation is monetary expansion. Higher prices is just a consequence of inflation, not inflation itself. In a bad economy where everyone loses their jobs, yes there is price decrease because demand for certain items will fall and fall drastically. You can define that as "deflation" and as peter says, there will be "deflation" if you price things in gold (real money). However, if the monetary expansion beats the "deflation", then prices in dollars will rise.
bochap21 2 years ago
Yes, that's right. And as long as monetary policy does not go too far toward inflation, then we don't have serious problems.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
But, Schiff's definition of inflation is simply wrong. Inflation involves rising prices. For example, if the money supply increases, but more slowly than does output, then you have deflation, not inflation.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
I don't think its Schiff's definition. It is the definition. Inflate means blow up or expand. Inflation therefore means expansion. What exactly is expanding? Isn't it money supply? Output on the other hand is a variable. Some things have a lot of output, say water while other things have little output like gasoline. Output for different commodities varies with time. Say if there is a drought, output for water could go down which makes the prices of water go up. That's not inflation.
bochap21 2 years ago
It's prices that are inflating.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
Prices can only increase or decrease. Prices cannot inflate or deflate.
bochap21 2 years ago 2
Um, "increase" and "inflate" mean the same thing in this context. When the monetary supply increases, you can say it inflates, but this is not the technical economic definition of inflation. Inflation in this context refers to rising prices.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
I don't see how increase and inflate mean the same thing. They are related, yes but not the same. Whatever the technical definition of inflation, prices of goods can rise and fall regardless of monetary policy due to demand and supply. I do not consider that as inflation or deflation. I guess you mean that the technical definition of inflation is an aggregate measure of all factors together, ie money supply, demand and output on prices of a certain commodity in a certain market. Is that right?
bochap21 2 years ago
Price inflation occurs when increases in prices are due to the money supply rising relative to the real value of goods and services produced. This does not have to involve monetary expansion, It can occur if productivity falls, but the money supply remains the same.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
What would you then consider the technical definition of price inflation solely due to increase in money supply? Would "monetary inflation" be an accurate technical term?
bochap21 2 years ago
If we remove money from the equation and do barter trade. Say today, you can exchange 1 apple for 1 orange. Maybe 5 years later, people prefer apples to oranges, or there was an apple famine and you can exchange 1 apple for 2 oranges. Does that mean that apples "inflated" while oranges "deflated"? I don't think so. Inflation and deflation is meaningless without the context of money.
bochap21 2 years ago
why would output increase if the whole reason for deflation is that demand is down, because there is less money in the consumer's hand to buy goods and services. they expand the money supply so people can consume with new loans. But the products consumed would be at a higher price than otherwise set by the law of supply and demand. artificial booms that when over will leave the consumer deeper in debt and with high inflation once the surpluses end.
ELREY120 2 years ago
I never said that output would increase with deflation.
Zeldovich 2 years ago
at 3:56 someone needs to tell this guy that inflation is the expansion of the money supply, which is going through the roof. Higher prices are the consequense of inflation. Why do prices continue to go up 1-2% anualized when demand has fallen sharply. That dude doesn't know what inflation is.
WPAJoker 2 years ago 5
Yeah, he makes a good point about benefiting from the high unemployment. But we'll need to get the unemployment rate up to about 85% to combat the coming inflation. If we fully nationalize the banking industry, healthcare, and all manufacturing, that should get us there.
surferaw949 2 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
What was the stock the guy mentioned at around 2:43?????
ryry1227 2 years ago
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ryry1227 2 years ago
they always keep the most stupid thing to say for last. lol. always.
nogl0001 2 years ago
Corporate media type takes the last word and spins positive.
That's like sending your debating opponent home then talking to the audience for another 10 minutes.
Another NBC(GE) product of propaganda. Boycott GE. Is it possible?
Epic878787 2 years ago
I am so sick of hearing that inflation is "under wraps!" Where in the hell are these people buying their groceries? Oops, my bad, I forgot that government inflation measures don't count food and energy.
abirch300 2 years ago
I can't believe that schiff dude said short walmart. He is somehow expecting hyper inflation, and the most he can do is double his money if it goes to zero. And he completely misses the idea that there are walmarts in china selling goods to chinese and getting rmb. He really has a one track mind.
panther9mm 2 years ago
that's EXACTLY what I was thinking, they have wal-mart's up and running in China and Japan!!!! Maybe he thinks their growth there won't make up for the losses due to inflation here...
john5246 2 years ago
So while people wait for walmart to go to zero they might even consider shorting something else. I know Schiff is a cheap guy just from what he says, but come on if walmart is like saks, then what about saks's business. What would that be like? He could pick a better short. There are tons of retailers to choose from.
panther9mm 2 years ago
u have a zero track brain. ur clueless. walmart is an american company that deals in dollars. the dollar is on the verge of collapse, thus dont buy any US stocks.
stealthpakfa 2 years ago
Actually I can't tell if you are a Sheep of Schiff or are you joking. Do you really believe everything that comes out of Schiff's mouth as truth? You should try and think for yourself instead of follow in someone's footsteps.
panther9mm 2 years ago
Having been a broker before, I can say he is spot on. When jobless numbers are at a 26 year high, and PE ratios on stocks are way to high, there is no reason why the market should still be where it is.
Tell me, why is schiff wrong?
brokerdavelhr 2 years ago 2
The best you can do on a short is double your money, and in a hyper inflationary scenario that will limit your upside. I can't remember if Schiff said it himself or others like him that the market is up because they are printing money. If that is the case and inflation increases stock prices why would walmart's stock price go down? The worse the economy gets, the more money they will print, and the higher the stocks will go. Don't forget walmart also has earnings in other currencies.
panther9mm 2 years ago
For 1 you are wrong on the shorting part. For 2, the newly printed money is only going to select sectors of the markets (Like banks, GM, etc). Their stock will then go up naturally. Walmart is already using over seas job to get away from taxes etc - once China returns the tarrifs, what do you think will happen then?
You also fail to address price to earning (PE) ratios. When it is 14-25 times what the company is worth, there is no reason for that.
brokerdavelhr 2 years ago
In addition, you must learn that hype sells more stock then sound fundamentals. I think the market crashes in both stock and real estate should have proven this to you by now. Heck, the media does it everyday. It is why many small brokerages wait to see when the big ones jump - because it is the only way to know when something is going to happen with the stock in question.
brokerdavelhr 2 years ago
You need to understand that hype goes both ways. Don't forget Schiff was pimping chinese stocks when it was 6000.
panther9mm 2 years ago
I am sorry to question Schiff on the shorting part. I should not question the master, so in that respect I am wrong. Thank you for pointing that out.
A quarter of walmart's business is international, and if there is hyper inflation, then the value of that revenue will go to up substantially along with the assets in the other country.
P/E ratios of 14-25 times are normal. Walmart's is 14, so the earnings yield is like 7%, and in the bank you get next to nothing.
panther9mm 2 years ago
I wouldn't look at the P/E of the whole market as a good indicator. Maybe if you looked at it sector by sector, but the number does not matter much at this time.
panther9mm 2 years ago
Sorry it took so long to get back to you - things are chaotic.
Anyway, PE ratio's have been overly inflated for a long time. When we the last time you saw a market that was stable enough so a person invest in it long term with no fear of loss?
Of course the numbers matter. The problem is that everyone is so used to this being the norm that they ignore the fact that it is still a sign of a highly inflated market. MTF
brokerdavelhr 2 years ago
If one actually looks at the market as a whole, it doesn't take a genius to figure out that it is not sustainable, even at it's current 'lows' it is over valued.
Remember also that Schiff is the opposite of a day trader, he goes for the long term. In that small snap shot of time, yes he took a hit. But Looking at it now can you tell me he was that far off?
brokerdavelhr 2 years ago
If there is a positive return in the stock market, then it can beat cash. The stock market just needs to beat cash by a few basis points to account for risk. If the interest rate is 15% then PEs of stocks should be 5-6 or so if you do not look at book values.
TheSheepLeader 2 years ago
I never trusted PE ratios even when the banks were strong. Banks normally have low PEs and they were like 30% of the S&P, so the numbers were not a good measure as a whole, but individual names you can find values.
Yes, things are chaotic and PE is not the only measure of value in a company. Probably if you look at book values stocks are not too over valued.
TheSheepLeader 2 years ago
The problem I see is that that the trending of interest rates was down ever since the peak in the 80's. A falling interest rate increases the price of a stock and other assets. That is normal, but now we have gotten to zero interest rates. An increase will hurt all asset prices and hurt tax revenues.
TheSheepLeader 2 years ago
Good point. With so much money in the system, it will most certainly make its way into the equity markets, and give investors nominal (but not real) gains as we approach massive money velocity. Shorting anything equity-wise right now is VERY dangerous.
surferaw949 2 years ago
If the U.S. currency looses value to the Chinese currency anything imported here from china will be more expensive, hence price will rise causing consumers to consume less from Walmart and more from American producers because of the cheaper dollar. Hence we may even start exporting more ourselves but our standard of living will decline. It all depends on how cheap the dollar gets.
ELREY120 2 years ago
Walmart will most likely increase market share against other retailers but second hand stores will pop up more. Many of the goods in walmart can probably go up 10-20% and some people would not notice. American people are not good at math.
TheSheepLeader 2 years ago
Buy Gold - Dont worry about the price, the weight stays the same.
myyootube 2 years ago
Not only are the hosts continuing to smirk, but they now place bullish comments in the banner below Peter, to mislead the sheeple as much as possible.
myyootube 2 years ago
These hosts are living in la la land! We are definitely feeling the inflation in Florida!!!
roseagain2 2 years ago 3
All I want to hear from the Asian chick from now on is "Me so horny". I would find that more conducive to dialogue. As for the guy at the end, he can shove his Phillips curve crap right up his end. He's downright evil.
Nickelodeon2002 2 years ago 3
I think he's right in the sense that the velocity of money is lower because of unemployment. It's silly to argue that if by tomorrow everyone of the 10% of unemployed people found jobs that their spending would not have us feel the effects of inflation sooner as it relates to the CPI (consumer price index)
john5246 2 years ago
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Nickelodeon2002 2 years ago
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Nickelodeon2002 2 years ago
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Nickelodeon2002 2 years ago
BLS measured unemployment by G.D. era criteria is U6-which is about 16%. U3 is 10%.
CPI doesn't account for the two biggest household expenses, Food & Fuel. Regardless the doubling of the money supply in the last year IS INFLATION. "Velocity" or not the inflation has occurred. Money is being spread to banks, GM, foreign central banks, and on and on....the effects are coming regardless of the employment picture.
Nickelodeon2002 2 years ago
I've been doing a TON of research on the inflation vs deflation argument. If you haven't seen it, check out the elliotwave website. He makes some interesting points about near-term deflation that might last alot longer than many people think. The fact of the matter is that the dollar is being heavily shorted and investors are all bracing for inflation. The question is "how long" till it gets here. Schiff has a rather short timeline (cont'd)...
surferaw949 2 years ago
If you've been doing a ton of research on inflation you should know that it's an increase in the money supply, not rising prices. There is no deflation!
Prices can fluctuate up or down in the short run, but the money supply is growing exponentially.
How many times have Schiff and Faber explained this? Not enough, apparently.
trent2429 2 years ago 2
First off, yes, I understand the definitions of inflation and deflation. And yes, Schiff and the inflationists are correct that massive price increases are the ultimate destination. But continued price decreases and deflationary forces are still in the cards, and it behooves the smart investor to prepare for both. I should have said "deflationary effects" vice deflation.
surferaw949 2 years ago
But guys like Faber and other are calling it out a further 4 to 5 years. I think the key to success is going against the grain, and right now everyone is betting against the dollar and factoring in inflationary expectations. So what's the near-term angle? In other words, how will everyone "get this wrong"? I think that deflation could be so serious to the point that everyone rules out the possibility of inflation...and then a crisis event triggers immediate and MASSIVE hyperinflation.
surferaw949 2 years ago
I understand what you mean and have the same concerns, but if you listen to Faber, Schiff, or Rogers, then they will always say there is inflation comming into the system no matter how much deflation you see, so you will not have the feeling that there is no possibility of inflation.
The most profitable trade is the most unexpected.
Nobody can time it. You just have to be prepared.
panther9mm 2 years ago
Definitely. One way to play this is "bullet proof" your portfolio on either ends with heavy investments in cash and precious metals. I think the best investment right now is the physical metals (and food, guns, and ammo of course). They are both inflation and deflation proof.
surferaw949 2 years ago
Walmart like SachsFifthAve. HA HA HA Com on Peter. But Everything else is right on.
jfcrow1 2 years ago
Don't forget to short wal-mart.
panther9mm 2 years ago 2
Japan has made it clear according to an article I read on bloomberg that if the yen goes in an "unfavorable" direction vs the dollar they will step-in. By unfavorable I'm pretty sure they mean if the dollar gains too much strength vs the yen.
john5246 2 years ago
whats is saksfifthavenue?????
stealthpakfa 2 years ago
A place that sells $500 sweaters.
eurohim 2 years ago
5 against 1...not good odds but when PS is the one, bet on him...
JoeyPencils 2 years ago
Schiff is wasting his time talking to the CNBC hosts. It's all BS and it all bad for ya. It either CNBC is desperate for ratings or they enjjoy having there asses handed to them by Schiff.
gli96187 2 years ago 7
Peter is used as a CYA. So months from now they can claim they were unbiased and had guests on warning about what is to come.
myyootube 2 years ago
No don't get me wrong I get what Schiff is doing. But I am saying is these CNBC host are so far gone they are not just drinking the Kool-Aide they are mixing it up. Schiff is doing his public service in waking up the brain dead drones that still watch this rubbish channel. But if the viewers are not getting by now they are nothing more then just mulch or people are no longer watching and they need find something for the overpaid schills to do. 3:53 "Job Loses controls inflation?" What total BS!
gli96187 2 years ago 2
I've noticed more and more lately that they let him talk, then he goes away and then they start talking about how he's wrong. I guess that minimizes the smack down because he can't pick apart their arguments if he's not there.
eurohim 2 years ago 4
Your are not the only one to notice that. It shows how they don't have any valid arguments at all and how cowardice they are. Look as it as entertainment CNBC has no valid information.
gli96187 2 years ago
Great point! They must've learned that when they debate him, they end up looking stupid.
byrdinflight 2 years ago
My gold and silver came in the mail today. :)
rockhuddy 2 years ago 7
Where u live? I make sure you don't get it next time.
panther9mm 2 years ago
Buy Gold!
BeantownJim 2 years ago 3
Welcome to Schiff's school for shills! lol He takes em to the wall ( or behind it ) every time! Go Peter!
PressForFreedom 2 years ago 7
"notable bear gives us some buys for a change"
text on bottom of screen while schiff is talking, AFTER he explains that he has owned some key stocks all along.
What a riot. :)
darkherokaze 2 years ago
Inflation is down because unemployment high!
WTF?
OK so higher stock market is not an effect of inflation, higher GOLD, SILVER, OIL GAS and all other commodities since March of 2009 is not a effect of a 15% lower dollar value.
Last time I checked higher prices is the effect of inflation. Sorry I forgot what the Feds said they would do with $1.3 trillion they plan to print. Was it keep for a rain day or spend it on something?
davincij15 2 years ago
That was a weird thing to say that warranted elaboration. I think he might have meant something like: the threat of unemployment makes people save more, and since a lot of savings are now going to the perceived safe-heaven of treasuries, it gives some largess to the Federal govt to accumulate debt without resorting to the printing press...
picapauengracado 2 years ago
Right, if you believe that buy up some treasures or junk bonds from GE and JP Morgan, they ain't going no where. See how that works out for Yeah. Just leave the physical gold for China and us who think the fed will print.
Good Luck.
davincij15 2 years ago
Geeez, is she a bitch? I've seen her work and she gets down right scary. Why in the world would they put that one on? I figure they feel the need for a bully cause they do not have the horse power to counter a guy like Schiff. CNBC is all about propaganda.
InTheSticks1881 2 years ago 2
She's like that especially when Peter comes on.
Someone should tell her to do her job and not show such an attitude. I can't wait until the future proves Peter right and we'll see all these videos with her being a bitch and hopefully get fired. hahaha
PeterPancrease 2 years ago 3
Bull market or BS? If you have to ask the question you are watching too much TV and what the government tells you.
davincij15 2 years ago
I don't get why CNBC keeps putting Peter on the air. He tears them a new one every time (especially that Asian cunt.)
Vodka2389 2 years ago 5
That one guy who was saying unemployment is a good thing for inflation is a complete idiot. Unemployment isn't going to stop inflation because THE GOV. HAS TO MAKE UP FOR THE CONSUMER AND SPEND EVEN MORE in order to temperley bump up GDP, so they just take the place of the consumer. The problem is, however, the foundation for short economic growth is the gov. and NOT the consumer, so when the gov. steps away to let the economy stand alone (it will eventually have to), it WILL implode.
JackNeedles 2 years ago 6
Get paid to be stupid!!! Hello public education America! Just great! Inflation has been kept under what? WTF is wrong with these people? In which planet do they travel through time to find these ass fucking moronic idiots with their powdered ugly faces? Are these the people, along with the likes of CRUMMY CRAMER, we are expected to listen to ? WTF? Truly indeed, George Orwell must be rolling over his grave.
AFRIKTODAY 2 years ago 2
Good stuff!!! Needed a good laugh.
eyewitness043 2 years ago
on a scale from A-Z ...what's the letter for the recovery ? ? ? LoL
dudebud007 2 years ago
How can he say inflation has been held in check the money supply is been pumped like a balloon. The prices will rise when the money gets in the system. There is no such thing as a economic rebound when jobs are being cut. There is a such thing as stock markets rising but that is not the economy the true economy we live in is not on wall street and these fools that believe this hype are crazy and these fools on tv a just manipulating the moron american public. wake up people.
wakeupsheeplenow 2 years ago
Agreed. Its not a "jobless recovery", its jobless because its NOT a recovery.
myyootube 2 years ago
Yep, the philips curve should be dead and buried by now.
job187 2 years ago
My god , this is unbelievable..
Unemployment is helpful coz it prevents inflation
So if you want low inflation keep printing and keep firing...
This happens all the time to people who read books and become big in life....go outside people;look at your friends, they are hurting:
Oh yeah, I forgot; you were rejoicing that you were better...My bad!
madhuradi 2 years ago 4
Schiff owns POT?? haha. wtf is up with the fast money guys??? they seem like they hate peter. we benefit fom unemployment??? did that boob face just say that? what an elitest thing to say. i'm sitting here on tv pretending to not be a monkey throwing darts at a listing of stocks saying that unemployment is a good thing, haha. if he is talking about in regards to inflation, some one needs to tell this boob face that the philips curve exploded in the stagflation of 70's, please try a again
soundmoneyfan 2 years ago 6
they put him on the show to try and discredit him. by doing this the shows' followers won't believe him.
mreisma 2 years ago
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korrdxl 2 years ago