With respect Ciaran, the concern is with the contradiction in the beliefs underpinning peak oil and NAMA.
And unfortunately the 10% uplift is not relevant to making a judgement on NAMA.
€77bn in loans, 40% performing (we think) 60% not. If we collect 100% of the performing loans (a dream) and 50% of the non-performing loans (a fantasy) we'll break even. A more prudent view (while ignoring peak oil) would be 65% performing and 25% non-performing: NAMA loses = €22bn
I note your concern about the ten per cent uplift in property.
-I'd imagine lands close to urban centres will have a significant uplift, but commuter belt properties will lose value.
-An average home can probably be made into a passive home for around €20,000.
-Think of what property did between 1994 and 2004. (not that will be repeated, but 10% is not an enormous lift, particularly when you take inflation into account.
With respect Ciaran, the concern is with the contradiction in the beliefs underpinning peak oil and NAMA.
And unfortunately the 10% uplift is not relevant to making a judgement on NAMA.
€77bn in loans, 40% performing (we think) 60% not. If we collect 100% of the performing loans (a dream) and 50% of the non-performing loans (a fantasy) we'll break even. A more prudent view (while ignoring peak oil) would be 65% performing and 25% non-performing: NAMA loses = €22bn
It doesn't add up.
rsorourke 2 years ago
I note your concern about the ten per cent uplift in property.
-I'd imagine lands close to urban centres will have a significant uplift, but commuter belt properties will lose value.
-An average home can probably be made into a passive home for around €20,000.
-Think of what property did between 1994 and 2004. (not that will be repeated, but 10% is not an enormous lift, particularly when you take inflation into account.
CiaranCuffe 2 years ago