How to Calculate Poker Odds and Outs with Howard Lederer

[theman1819]

why does it say that the odds of winning are 4-1 shouldnt it be 5-1 if he is sitting at 20 percent can some 1 explain

[Gebuza]

@theman1819 Simple math. 4-1 means that out of 5 hands with the same cards, he is like to lose 4 times and win 1 time. Four plus one equals five. 100/5 = 20%.

On the other hand if his odds were 5-1 that would mean that out of 6 hands (5+1 = 6), he would lose five times and win once. 100/6 = 16,67%

[laffizzle]

how to calculate a ponzi scheme

[Allanlegacy43]

Hey Howard what are the odds of a couple of guys creating a poker company that owes it's members 390 million and has only 60 million in the bank, what about it Howard???

[bartithamos]

@Allanlegacy43 ROFL

[bartithamos]

@Allanlegacy43 ROFL

[theREALpromised1]

ok i really like the fact that you explain these odds and outs but i wanna know since in the real game you dont even know what the other person has so how do you use this sort of information in the the game when you're playing?

[yonex003]

@theREALpromised1

You are not suppose to take your opponents hands into consideration when applying odds. Whenever i play i usually only add the odds that will give me the best hand so I know I can win with the best hand.

[artysmokes]

@yonex003 Actually the top players do take into account other players's possible hands. If the flop was Kh Qd 4d and you are chasing the diamond flush with 7d 6d, and the opponent has made a bet indicating he has a King, that King could be a diamond, or maybe they have the Ace of diamonds as a kicker. The top pros reduce their number of outs by "eliminating" cards. There's a 50/50 chance that the opponent has at least one diamond, so you really only have 8 and a half outs.

[yonex003]

@artysmokes So what ur saying is they take in the probability of what their opponents have? I think i understand what ur saying with using 50/50 by saying usually you can have 9 but its 8 1/2

[artysmokes]

@yonex003 Yes, that's it. You have to bear in mind that there is a chance your opponent is chasing the same draw. Many times there will be 7 8 J on the table and I have the 9 and an opponent has the 10. I might think there are 4 tens still available, when really there are only 3. On a 4-player table, there's about a 30% chance that someone will have one of the 10s I need, so my number of outs on that gutshot would be between 3 and 4. I'd only have all 4 outs for sure if I was playing alone. :)

[artysmokes]

@theREALpromised1 The way you use these odds is in deciding whether a call offers good value. You compare the pot odds (the ratio of the size of the pot to the bet you need to call) with the odds of making your hand. E.g. if the pot is $100 and you have to pay $20 to call, then pot odds are 5:1. A flush draw offers about 4:1, so it makes sense to call. (You're only contributing 1/6 of the pot, but have a 1 in 5 chance of winning).

[artysmokes]

@theREALpromised1 Here's another more obvious example, that amateurs don't realise. If your opponent goes all in after the flop and you only have a low flush draw, it's usually not worth calling. Reason: You'll be contributing half the pot, but only have a 35% chance of winning. It makes no sense to contribute 50% of the pot unless you have a better than 50% chance of winning.

[stephenlandrum]

On the turn its actually X2+2

[BxSQUIRREL]

howard lederer is actually not too bad in this video.. i usually hate him

[BxSQUIRREL]

@BxSQUIRREL since you never see your opponents cards , you wouldnt be able to.. but if you have a good read on your opponent and think hes chasing a flush or straight then you can do very general calculation. And then of course if you are both all in you can look at your opponents cards and then do the calculations as you would do for your own cards

[pirocan1]

how would u calculate the outs for the other guy?

[ansionnachcliste]

@pirocan1 Would be easier and maybe even possible if you knew what cards he/she had.

[PBRMafia]

The 4 and 2 method is way off. If you are heads up and the flop just hit the board that means there are 44 cards left in the deck(dont forget the burn card). Now lets say you have 10 outs,10 goes into 44 4.5 times giving you 4.5:1,which is about 23%. Now if you use the 4 and 2 method that would give you 40%,which is a 17% differnece and is way off. Now you may say howard is a pro and yes that is true,but howard still loses his fair shair of big pots.

[metalcello]

@PBRMafia Please correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you forget to take into consideration that there are TWO chances after the flop (the turn, then river) to make your hand? Therefore, on the flop, your odds are 10/44 (turn) + 10/42 (river) = 46.5% which is close to the 40% given by the 4 and 2 method. If you haven't made your hand on the turn, then, 10/42 = 24% for the river which is about 2 x 10 (outs) = 20?

[PBRMafia]

@metalcello Ok,one this whole method is stupid bcuz you shouldnt be worried about what is going to happen on the river when your only at the turn.

[artysmokes]

@PBRMafia You've got it a bit confused. The 4 and 2 thing isn't particularly accurate, but 10 outs multiplied by 2 suggests a 20% chance of making the hand on the turn and 10x4=40% chance of making it by the river. 10 outs actually provides 21.3% on the turn and 38% on turn or river combines, so 20 and 40 wasn't so far off.

[hanselategretel]

seeing that banana get sliced by the card looks painful... 

[GearoMusic]

terry -outs are presumably used to calculate your hand and YOURS only. bettering your hand does not mean you have the best hand in play.

[terryfink]

How do you factor in the 7's on the flop? wouldn't you have to know your opponent is on a low pair?is this in hindsight ? Some one please explain or point me in the right direction.

[Wrdlbrnftey]

@terryfink That doesn't matter. You just calculate the odds that your hand will improve and not that you have the best hand. On the other side you should always try to find out what cards your opponent might have and that gives you a hint on which cards might make your hand the best hand and which will not.

[teespoon1234]

you DON'T factor in the possibility that somebody has folded some of your outs as it's evened out by the possibility they have folded some of the cards that decrease the strenght of your hand! calculating outs is about calculating the possibility of all the unseen cards coming up! If you havn't seen your opponent's hand, you can't presume he has some of your outs.

[TheCheesecar]

what do you multiply it by like with gus hansens 20 outs do you multiply it by 2 on the turn and 4 on flop?

[joyariffic]

@TheCheesecar yep

[tyrant313]

doesnt another 2 5's count as outs? trips will beat his pair?

[whitetrashbiotch]

calculate odds and full tilt? i dont fucking think so.

Doesn't matter if your a hugh favorite to win. yeah you know what im talking about howard, runner runner flush straights your a fat scammer.

[ChrisSchwanrez]

i dont ... but would like to

[jmponmyfoot]

do you not take into account the possibility that other people have folded some of your outs?

[alfiecaygill]

thats what i was thinking at first... but its just to give you a quick understanding of how strong your hand or your outs are... if you tally up and it isnt that good, then think if someone has folded some of your outs that its decreased alot. its for maximum possibility and to see how good the odds and outs actually are