Electoral Prediction for 2008 Presidential Election and Beyond

[bengaltigre53]

Florida, Indiana

[wtfdudesitedown]

VERMONT goes Republican?

[GrantDevereaux]

While I generally agree with you assessment of 2012, your assessment after that time, I do not see as remotely possible. Republicans have become an anathema to the Hispanic, Black population, LGBT population as well as the majority of women. This is an increasing problem for them, not a decreasing one and Republicans are likely to become increasingly marginalized as we move forward unless they radically change their agenda.

[XXXjuqinctylkjnmswXX]

Obama doesn't have a prayer's chance in hell to win by a bigger margin than last time, short of some unforeseen save-the-world from nuclear holocaust scenario and that would take a hell of a lot more than another pretentious, self-righteous speech.

People believe in positive action not condescending patronization, to say the least.

Republicans win by a narrower margin than they should.

[nukliergeneral]

@XXXjuqinctylkjnmswXX the republicans are egotistical maniacs who only care about the money in thie pocket. the economy is doing better.

[XXXjuqinctylkjnmswXX]

@nukliergeneral Damn you dumb.

[ryanfuckinmcgoldrick]

I don't think Obama will gain votes in 2012. The question is how many he will lose. I think he'll lose three or four states that voted for him in 2008. He won by 95 electoral college votes. I doubt the four middle states will comprise that many college votes.

[bcurb1]

I agree, If Obama gets another term it will take 20 years for the Democratic party to recover.

[ryanfuckinmcgoldrick]

@bcurb1 How so? I'm assuming you have access to facts.

[nukliergeneral]

@bcurb1 hey dip shit if Obama gets reelected it is the republican party that's going to become a marginal party.

[STLConservative]

@nukliergeneral On the contrary, the economy will get worse to an even worse degree, and we could be in another DEPRESSION.

The Republican candidate whoever he or she may be, will trounce Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden...

[DiverseLA]

Stupid predictions since you're not basing it on any educated guess of any sort. How could you predict 2012 in 2008? Or how can you predict 2016?

[mhstl97]

I hope the world ends in 2012 if we have to live through 2 republican presidents in a row

[Shahamu]

Honestly it's probably not too far off. After Clinton first won in 1992, there were predictions that Democrats would hold the office for good due to demographic changes. But parties change, external issues change, and elections are as much about the individual running as the party itself. There will continue to be a pendulum swing back and forth for the foreseeable future.

[mmj75]

geez, we will never survive another 4 yrs with obama, but if he wins, he will change the voting system and he will be our "supreme leader" because gov't will control everything! I don't think people are fully aware of what obama is capable of

[rawn4203]

@mmj75 Sure we are. He is capable of winning an election with the consent of the people, of keeping us safe on our own soil, and killing bin laden. Among many other positive things.

[ToutCQJM]

if that's our future, then I hope the world ends at the end of this year

[cassidy99ful]

those who support romney deserve obam in 2012.

[buckeyesrule10]

ROMNEY 2012

[GOD719]

@buckeyesrule10 Romney is the same as Obama. He received money from the same corporations as Obama and he even said he would sign the NDAA if he was president? He is a flip flopping Mexican anchor baby. What we need is a pro American Veteran Ron Paul. If you want someone to start the North American Union and destroy the United States. vote Romney/Obama. How the hell can people support Romney or Obama? America is full of ignorant people. I'm ashamed to be in this country

[6806goats1]

@buckeyesrule10 There ya go x2

[kell4809]

Obama 2012

[RoflCoptr20]

@kell4809 why?

[onomatopoeia162003]

Minnesota won't either. its always for dems when it goes towards a president.. last time was Nixon.

[williamertz]

GO IOWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[williamertz]

Iowa sure as hell won't go red.

[Kuma562]

LOL at Vermont going Republican in 2020. Vermont is the only state with an avowedly socialist senator.

[trooper40below]

All the states this guy had going red will not likely happen with demographic changes that appear to be coming. In the long run the democrats will be getting stronger if anything. Especially in certain states like GA, AZ, and TX. I see those three states being the next VA, NC, and IN to switch from red to blue. in 2016 or by 2020. VA, NC are probably gone forever for the GOP. IN they may still get at this point but in the future...No.

[Hello59239]

There's no way Vermont will ever again go red.

My conservative friend called it the bastion of socialism in America

[djdavemick]

2016: NO. EFFIN'. WAY.

It will be nothing short of DISGRACE if we see a Republican win landslide a la 1972 Nixon (what a JOKE that election was).

[123keryn]

The 2012 one I would say is close

[trooper40below]

@123keryn 2012 will be close poll wise. Electoral college wise Obama is going to win handily.

[dancthegr]

This is absolute ludicrous as you expect that you can predict elections twelve years in advance- by 2050, the ethnic minorities in America will outnumber the whites- more democrats in the future

[gigantomachyusa]

LOL at Illinois going Republican in 2016

[declancf]

i hope 2012 goes how you predict. however i dont reckon virginia will go obamas way. i think 2008 was a 1 time off. would be good but i dont think it will

[happycan107]

your 2008 was pretty close your 2012 couldn't be fare from the truth

[Calsummersishere]

hahaha

[starwarssub4sub]

YOU #FAIL

[rncoco]

dreaming! 

[GODBLESSUSA100]

This vid was made b4 2008 election the 2012 election by my poll counting should be a republican victory unless a change happens in the near future

[feeblepizza]

I agree with 2016 and 2020 in that traditional blue states will shift, although we will have a different Electoral count. In 2012, though, I think ppl will wake up and tear Obama to pieces.

[horta85]

How could you even call 2012? What a joke!

Only way Obama will save his ass if his get the economy in order, which is currently not being done. The Obama fad is died out, those stupid shirts are overstocked! Now that reality kicked in explains his under 50% approval rating. Bottom line, if Obama want's a second term, which he has a good chance of doing even with a bad presidential performance he better hopes he runs against a moron like Palin. Another strong candidate, who knows!

[SakeandSoju]

The predictions for the U.S. Presidential Elections 2016 and 2020 are really way off in this video. The problem with those predictions is that the person who posted that video seems to have somehow ignored the changing demographics of America. Had the current demographic trends been reversed, then I would agree with the state-by-state analysis laid out for those elections of this video.

[ConservativeMan1776]

Colbert 2016 and 2020

[BaseballNum5]

Obama will win a second term after that i think another democrat will win dont know who yet though

[FJV1996]

I am a a democrat but I support rebubplicans I say Mitt Romny will win

[DethWizardMan]

i hope that the democrats will win those elections, because democrats had kick-ass people like FDR and JFK and now Obama, and someday, ME!

[WilliamHCarney]

I will say right now. If Obama stops one war, and the unemployment increases a little. Obama will be re-elected, and will receive a minimum of 300 Electoral Votes. Especially since MSNBC, and The Washington Post has done an excellent job of exposing the GOP Liars.

[Hippolf]

How do you expect the Republicans to win in ILLINOIS?!?!?!

[RochesterFICS]

I liked the first two...

[johnnydamon3]

Your wrong 2012 is going to be won by a republican when everyone finds out how bad Obama is and you were right with 2016 and 2020.

[west521]

how the fuck do you know whats gonna happen in 2016 and 2020???? hu you dont. you dont know what presedint whomever we have from 2013-2017. you dont know what they will do. so you have no fucking clue i hate dumb ass party only people

[Joshrpsycho]

I hate people who can't type, just saying dude.

[TruthinessCrusader]

@west521 Well someone's angry. Ha ha.

[203mkj]

One slight problem... the elections of 2012, 2016 & 2020 will have different electoral vote calculations based on the 2010 census. I do expect some traditional blue states to go red in coming elections, like Oregon or Pennsylvania. However, I expect the Democrats to maintain some of their newly gained blue states like Virginia and Indiana.

[jredditt84]

@203mkj

Indiana I think Not.

[Skabur123]

@203mkj Indiana will go red, for sure.

[PrinceOfPennsylvania]

@203mkj Sorry to say but PA will not be going red any time soon.

[ThaAmericanSocialist]

@203mkj Pennsylvania will stay blue, and oregon even more so..... though virginia may turn blue depending on who runs in 16 and if they can fight for it

[Kippe1702]

And what is this based on?

[west521]

exactley we could have some super canidate from ether party they dont know

[Kippe1702]

Yeah, Illinois will turn red, and I'll decide to get my balls cut off.

[FinalFantasyDCCXXVI]

2008: A lot of the states you missed were pretty close, so I can't blame you.

2012: I think Obama could win more states than that in 2012. Depending on the candidate, I can see him flipping Missouri, Montana, Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota and possibly South Carolina, Arizona and Texas.

2016: If Obama does well as president, there's a decent shot at getting a new Democrat in, but if a Republican wins, I don't see Illinois going red.

2020: I can't see PA, VT and OR going red.

[west521]

Democrats for ever baby

[johnnydamon3]

Democrats suck

[johnnydamon3]

democrats suck

[west521]

your fucking face sucks

[Claronium780]

2016 and 2020, or at least 2016 are going to be way off...i think 2016 will be more like 2000....do you really think the Republcans even COULD win so big in 2016???

[Slorginvader]

It's remarkable that almost every time a party makes two terms, than the other party makes to terms, then the other makes two terms etc...

There are some exceptions (during the reagan years for example the Republicans got three terms (Bush-Reagan-Reagan)... But still ^^

[FinalFantasyDCCXXVI]

It was Reagan-Reagan-Bush

[Slorginvader]

Yes, You're right, my mistake....

[abarzilai664]

On the Obama mcain contest you're half right. Obama won big but McCain did not win IN, NC, VA, and FL.

[KaiUchiha15]

You've underistimated Sarah Palin n 2012. She's BEAT Obama, or Biden (in case something happens to Obama)

[sicktoaster]

Also Vermont goes red in 2020? I doubt it. Vermont elected an openly socialist candidate as Senator. That state will never be Republican.

[sicktoaster]

You underestimated Obama even in 2008.

He won Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida too.

I expect an even better performance in 2012. Probably like 1984 except the Democrats win.

And after history's worst president do you really think Republicans are going to recover that quickly? A Democrat will win in 2016 (probably not Biden he'll be old and probably wont seek the presidency). And they will probably win reelection in 2020. After that who knows.

[RhysieKup]

No, more like 1936.

[firepanther7777]

Obama have managed to get the 2012 map in the 2008 election. Even I couldn't believe he would get that. The electoral is Obama 264 and McCain got 174. He ran the most disciplined, organized, efficient campaign ever in the history of politics. The Tiger Woods of politics.Imagine what he can do for our country.

[shonester]

He can get HIMSELF elected.

You keep imaginging.

[dmdcreations]

So your saying the immediate future is bleak but when the inmates realize running the asylum is not as much fun as they imagined they will give the keys back to the Warden

[BreachedWall]

It's completely pointless making detailed predictions for 2012 let alone 2016 and 2020.

[electionologist]

I'll be damned if your 2020 prediction turn out to be correct. That would put me out of business/

[ktchong]

2016!?!? 2020????

What will happen in 2016 and 2020 that give Republican a victory?

Will the Democratic and Republican parties even exist by then??

The only way the Republican party can win so far in the future is that it will become a Hispanic party, because Hispanics will be the majority in America by then.

[Abcflc]

I think this is realistic, although predicting elections so far into the future is kind of ridiculous... but I agree in the 8 year pattern: dem dem , rep rep, dem dem, rep rep...

its has happened and it most probably continue to..

[dertyjerzian]

Obama for 98

But,how do you come to these conclusions?? Where is your process?

[electionologist]

I agree with your 2008 prediction.

[oak91td]

and you were correct!

[l234567898765432l]

Go Obama!!!

[JoePlumber08]

BS...McCain all the way!!!