Bogosity Ep. 8: Election Polls (Part 1)

[dj092768]

Look I''m a Necromancer! Anyway, I used to have a job doing surveys and polls like your talking about here. In this kind of survey, the margin of error is the number of people who: A) Told you to fuck off (or variations thereof), B) Did not answer the question or C) Gave a response that was inconsistent with the phraseology of the question. (For example, giving a long lecture about alleles when ask "do you accept evolution" [a y/n ?]) It has no other significance

[xoy71]

A bias towards reality is the best bias of all.

[UnmaskedTuxedo]

One important question: What's the difference between a vote and a poll? And what about the Electoral College - should we dismantle it?

[Aerosteon]

Why don't you write a better polling algorithm then?

[TehBestZors]

@Aerosteon You do not have to provide an alternative when critiquing something.

[Aerosteon]

I know. I just thought since Shane is a programmer he could get super rich if he could convince pollsters of the problem then fix it for them.

[shanedk]

It's not about the algorithms. It's about the process. We KNOW how to do scientific surveys, but they're too expensive and time-consuming for the polling places to do.

Without those scientific controls, there is NO way of knowing if you're really getting accurate data.

[Surhotchaperchlorome]

Is your DVD of the first 9 episodes of Bogosity going to be in HD?

[shanedk]

The DVD is the first 6 episodes. They won't be in HD. After that, I'll re-release 7-9 in HD.

[Surhotchaperchlorome]

Damn.  Oh well. Still awesome. :)

Sweet. :)

[shanedk]

On the plus side, the Blu-Ray version of the Second Edition of How Evolution Is Scientific will be 1080p, and both it and the DVD will be in Dolby 5.1.

[WecksyRex]

This was votedbotted.

[DrFoolishit]

was this on BNN?

[shanedk]

BNN's a parody of CNN.

[Surhotchaperchlorome]

BNN ?= Bogosity News Network

[amateurevolutionist]

BNN is an actual network in the Netherlands, it's a network for young people

One of the programs (Spuiten en Slikken, i.e. Shooting and Swallowing) is about sex and drugs, where the presentors actually use Coke, XTC, Pot, Noz etc to educate the public about what they do, what the danger is etc and they talk a lot about sex ed,

I love BNN :P

[shanedk]

Really? I didn't know that.

I suppose no matter what initials I came up with, it was bound to be in use SOMEWHERE.

[amateurevolutionist]

Could you imagine such a program in the US? A program where young people are tought:

- How to use laughing gas

- How to have anal sex

- Who gives better blow-jobs? Men or women? (they actually tested this one)

- What happens when you use coke and drive a scooter

etc?

Damn, Fox news would be able to fill their programs for the next 10 months

[jumpperi]

somehow im reminded of howtheworldworks, with that background. Even the world spins backwards:D

[shanedk]

I didn't create it; it was a freebie.

I'm thinking of redoing 7-9 in HD (I can't do 1-6 because they were recorded in SD), and redoing this background myself.

[veryhighsamurai]

make it spin forward just to spite howtheworldworks XD

[LiberalofLiberty]

1) What do you have to say about TJ's open criticism and rejection of ron paul? Ex post Facto of course.

2) has anyone told you that you look completely different without your glasses.

[niqueth]

Averaging all the polls together and applying some other mathematical adjustments gives fairly accurate results. I follow Real Clear Politics. They were right on in the election.

[shanedk]

Did you not watch the section on the 20 different polls and what happened when they were averaged?

The prediction markets did a MUCH better job with the results!

[niqueth]

I did after I made that comment. Yes the prediction markets are the best.

[Apptendo]

I see that you have the same video editing software as Howtheworldworks.

[shanedk]

He uses Sony Vegas?

[CommunistHunter]

while some polls are wrong, to call all polls bogus outright is incorrect. Sure you point out the few times it was drasticlly wrong but many times they are right, for instance intrade called ever state in their polls exactly right on who would take that state based on polls.

[shanedk]

Intrade doesn't do polls. They do prediction markets, which are far more accurate.

[flamablesteve]

Which is why at the end of the last presidential debate, Fox News poll said 86% of people thought McCain won.

I don't care if your Republican or Democrat. You have to admit that is really inaccurate.

[nicky2coats]

probably just indicative of fox's audience

[CBERASTUS]

I just love how the MSM tries to discourage conservatives by reporting the most ridiculous poll numbers - and they do it every election cycle.

Remember Dukakis and his 15% lead? (If I remember correctly Dukakis was routed.)

Don't let anyone fool you - McCain will win in a landslide!!!

[brengun42]

Shane, brengun again:

Please submit your videos to Showtime, HBO, etc. You could EASILY get these excellent vids expanded into quality programming.

[shanedk]

Well, well, I was just polled on my opinions on Climate Change. The options were:

Global Warming is happening and humans are the cause

Global Warming is happening due to natural causes

The Earth is not warming

None of these

I had to answer "None of these," because the answer that conforms to the REAL science--which is that it's warming due to a COMBINATION of human and natural factors--was not represented!

Stupid polls...

[Surhotchaperchlorome]

Speaking of Climate Change (aka Global Warming), you once said it was because the addition of CO2 decreases the specific heat of the atmosphere (or something such as that).

It makes good sense; do you have sources/links/evidence to demonstrate this?

Anything you can provide would be greatly appreciated.

[shanedk]

Actually, Potholer54 has an excellent series of videos about it.

[Surhotchaperchlorome]

Thank you Shane. :)

[ggiibbbbyy]

These videos are great. You should do one about 9/11 conspiracy theories.

[nemesisnick66]

if the polls were right Ron Paul would have a 100% lead over everybody

[666daedsidog]

"if the polls were right Ron Paul would have a 100% lead over everybody "

Of the people that have heard of him

Im from outside of the USA but i can guarantee that no where near %100 of Americans have heard of him

Aswell as Denis Kisinech (spelling) Who else would have been a prime candidate

Obama would have won but now Mcain will because Palin is pretty That is american politics

Sad but true

And the rest of the world has to put up with it

[JonathanClement140]

Hey, I have a few ideas for future episodes:

1. The growing earth theory by Neal Adams.

2. The hallow earth theory

3. A cashless society with RFID tracking implants.

[SlyEcho]

"Dewey Defeats Truman" comes to mind...

[shanedk]

Yeah, I think Orson Welles was interestingly prophetic when he made Citizen Kane. I'm thinking of the day of the election where Kane runs for President and loses because of a scandal. The reporter has one proof sheet that says, KANE WINS PRESIDENCY.

Since he lost, they'd have to go with the only other one they had, which was: FRAUD AT POLLS!

[reckingmachine]

Did I hear the news reporter right at the start, african american COLONISTS?

My god what an arse.

[shanedk]

COLUMNISTS. You know, as in people who write newspaper columns?

[reckingmachine]

I will have to take your word on it, I listened to it a bunch of times im sure I heard it. Im not used to the accent.

[shanedk]

See the previous episode. Once your ear gets a bias, it's hard to shift it.

[reckingmachine]

Yeah I already seen that ( good stuff ),I imagine that is the case.

[Desertphile]

"Did I hear the news reporter right at the start, african american COLONISTS?"

Blessed are the cheesmakers.

[reckingmachine]

Hahah

[freebaker]

Great topic, info, and new background! Thank you for doing these vids :D

[jedi1josh]

I know I've argued with you on other subject but this is one I agree with 100%.

[digitalshark]

Shanedk - It was a scene (don't know the episode name) where the actor Nigel Hawthorne's character demonstrated how polls can be manipulated by framing a question about whether the Minister would favor a draft (conscription in the UK) or not with a leading set of statements that would direct the response to either a yes or no answer. It made a huge impression on me at the time because it made it very clear how these polls can been used to result in a desired response. You're doing great work!

[SpookyFan]

Great background graphic. Very professional looking.

[digitalshark]

There was a british tv comedy series a long way back called "Yes Minister" that summarized the leading question and attitude aspect of how polls can be manipulated rather easily.

[shanedk]

I remember seeing that when I was younger. I don't remember much of it, though.

[cerealboxconspiracy]

Eh, I've just watched the first one of these, but I hope you mention that there are many good polls out there and it's often more the news media than the pollsters who exaggerate the accuracy and validity of the polls.

[shanedk]

You may be right, but I've still never seen a poll done with the scientific rigor they give to surveys that are submitted for peer-review.

[Nutcasenightmare]

Very informative... I've never thought much about election polls before. Now I know not only does your vote not count, THEY can't count. Thank you so much for this series!

"Fair... and biased!" ~Love the Bullshit reference, btw. Bogosity is like Youtube version of Bullshit, innit?

[SisyphusRedeemed]

This sounds like serious anecdotal reasoning. Sure, there are many examples of polls that got it wrong, but what about all the times they get it right? I seem to recall the 2004 Presidential election polls being very close to accurate. Do you have any evidence that suggests that polls get it wrong significantly more often than they get it right?

[SisyphusRedeemed]

Never mind, you address this in part 2. Thank you.

[shanedk]

Yeah, the 2004 polls were nowhere near accurate. They predicted a landslide for Kerry!

[SisyphusRedeemed]

They did? I seem to remember them saying Bush by a small margin. (I remember being concerned about it, but hoping they were wrong because they were under counting young, cell-phone-based voters.) But I'll take your word for it if you say so.

[shanedk]

There were most likely individual polls all over the place; there always are. But the ones that got reported a lot--especially afterwards by people who were trying to "prove" there was voter fraud--were for Kerry.

[4EverShadowless]

BNN. I LOVE IT!

[neveruse513]

More bogosity???

YES!!!!

[ogjimkenobi]

Wow great show on a very interesting topic!

[jebus6kryst]

I have always heard that giving false information was the reason why polls are so far off. Thank you for this video.

[Libertarianist]

Yay! Bogosity! The kinder version of Bullshit!

[TomSFox]

Kick ass!

[zbambam5]

Awesome episode Shane.

[CrashGames2108]

Bogosity would be better if it weren't a poor copy of Bullshit. Do something original.

[shanedk]

I've done LOTS of things that Bullshit hasn't! In fact, in some episodes (most notably the War on Drugs), I went out of my way to avoid doing what they did and making the same points they did.

There's very little crossover.

[UrbanZenpk]

i agree with Shane, this might be similar in the idea of a debunking bullshit but not in ideas that are covered....

keep up the good work shane

[shanedk]

I think this series should complement BS very well--it's the same idea, and we reach a lot of the same conclusions, but independently and with mostly different data.