Jim Rogers: Bullish on Ag Commodities in 2012

[wesleytarbuck]

if gold corrects as much as he's saying that pretty much throws all technical analysis out the window doesnt it? if its still in a bull market at that stage.

[titan13131]

@kroovyandcal I see your point, manipulations of currency are very different to actual food shortages. I have read that we are about 60% self sufficient and so I guess inflation is the bigger concern. Thanks for the kind words, I hope wherever you are from fairs better than we surely will :-)

[kroovyandcal]

I'd like some solid evidence that there are huge shortages of agricultural commodities. I do not believe this is occurring. This is something Jim Rogers has stated before, and I do not know of any evidence that there is an inability for the people of the earth to produce the required amount of food to feed the world's populace. In fact, I have seen evidence to the contrary.

[titan13131]

@kroovyandcal I know a lot of the food on supermarket shelves is imported (I'm from the UK) and if the Pound tanks and I believe that ultimately it will, then we wont be able to import as much. I personally don't believe that the UK is capable of growing enough food to feed itself. As the currency weakens and as wages and savings go down in value, demand for many goods is going to go down but not really for food since it is essential for survival. So I think the UK will have shortages of food.

[kroovyandcal]

@titan13131 It seems as if it should be able to grow enough food for itself. Certain foods can only be imported, this is true. But the vast majority of food it should be able to produce by itself. Manipulations of currency is a very different thing than actual food shortages. By the way, I know that the UK's financial institutions are in horrendous shape. I wish you and your country the best in these trying times.

[jayangli]

@kroovyandcal yes, a lot of commodities have gone down, and i have looked at some commodity indexes and they haven't done much in the last ten years. check this yourself. look for a popular commodity index on say wheat. going forward it might go up because of inflation and demands, but so far there is has been a lot of hype. Silver and gold has moved up a lot but that is so much linked to inflation. I try not to follow anything blindly now. stocks can go to zero, i hear commodities cannot.

[jayangli]

if a commodity index does go to zero, you know that the stock market is just a casino. lol. There is a lot of inflation and going forward there will probably be more inflation and money to be printed. So commodities could do well.

[kroovyandcal]

@jayangli Wheat is the root of all evil.

Silver and gold have surpassed almost every inflation marker, I think

[jayangli]

@kroovyandcal yeah, no easy money in this lol. silver at this price is a lot for the average person to invest in. Commodities are really a hedge against the dollar or inflation. Also include the demands of Asian growth, and a return to boom in the west, could be interesting in this asset class. We have to invest like a value investor for good returns, as commodities is still a new and uncommon investment class untouched by the majority of people.

[jayangli]

i wouldn't buy companies. commodities as far as we know, do not go to zero, there are real reasons for its value, supply and demand, inflation, Asian growth, so i like commodities.

[kroovyandcal]

@jayangli The Asian growth is going to continue. I think currently China has popped its own housing/city bubble that they themselves created. But obviously, in the long term, the growth will continue

[jayangli]

@kroovyandcal yeah i am going to hold these assets for a long time, and when they are worth selling, I will sell.