The long bond is market priced, as long as there's demand for those bonds the cost of the bond goes up while the yield falls. Don't you need to factor in the political enviorment as well? China, the largest holder of our debt, has a strong interest in helping the US economy stay healthy. Their own economy depends on Ameirca. Kinda a dam if they do dam if they don't situation. If China continues buying our debt, the rate on the long bond should stay low. Shorting the long bond is very risky
Anybody know of any funds/way to invest in futures contracts/options, etc. to short the US Bond...I am fully happy to pay for performance since I know that one gets what one pays for generally..Thanks in advance!
Most real things (not high end real estate) will continue to rise in value as measured in dollars. The dollar is doomed. It's fate is sealed. I like your comment and ideas.
no war with iran unless china lends us the money. The fed tightens and the dollar stablizes, china tightens, global growth slows if there is any at all right now, deflation. Stocks and commodities crater. Bonds remain flat or rally.
steelydan -- you are confused. The 30yr rate is now about 4.3% -- a fair amount higher than 3.25% in Jan. So shorting long-term Treasuries as MOT recommended back in late '08 MADE MONEY!
I shorted them back in the early part of the year but covered a couple months ago as the intermediate term trend reversed down for 10yr and 30yr ... that "correction is still underway" ... probably the Fed is buying bonds to keep rates down. Can't let those mortgage rates go up and wreck the recovery (I'm being sarcastic, but that's their reasoning). The Fed (and Goldman Sucks) will probably pull this rally out in the next 6 months to scare people into buying Treasuries.
You claim to be obsessed with the yields on bonds and the bond market then declare the most illogical statement of inconsistency that the last time you looked at it the yield on the 30 year was 3.25%
The yield on the 30 year was 3.25% in JANUARY 2009. 9-10 MONTHS AGO. Your credibility is now less than ZERO.
There are several instruments to do so. One I follow is the ETF TBT. Caution howwever, the ETF masters are crooks. Many folks on the net are warning about ETFs. For instance the Silver and Gold ETFs SLV and GLD are not fully vested in silver or gold a large portion is just paper. God only knows how they are backing TBT. There are other ways and financial instruments perhaps others con comment on that and about what I said.
Would not surprise me to see the 30year crash back to the lows of Aug 1981 at around 57, can anyone remember those days when rates were around 20%, that was when Paul Volcker was running the Fed.
They will do it again telling us they are fighting inflation. They have already started in Australia, they are already talking about raising rate by half a percent in Nov due to "inflation fears".
Yes. I was graduating from BYU at the time with an undergrad in Finance. Money Market rates were 21 percent and 30 year mortgages were 14 percent. I will never forget it. MOT
I'm in Miami, FL. Society is holding up. A lot of unemployment going on. I still think most people are completely oblivious to the upcoming hardship. They know nothing about monetary policy and our Keynsianism. They figure things will be looking up any second now. God help us all. Thanks for posting these videos. Lord knows we need more people seeing reality.
OH! MoT....NOW I know what i was gonna ask, and this has me confused to the point of anger...lol. Why when the $ was dropped as the reserve on the 12th was the NY Times the ONLY one to report it? Everyone was hush hush....I could understand them not saying anything in order to not cause a panic. Im just confused on why that didnt make bigger news. I dont even hear about it from anyone on Youtube.....
yea chrome whats the deal with that? I keep hearing Oct 25th, the 25th.....All I hear over and over. I made a prediction about the dollar for that date but it came early on the 12th....lol
Forget the ETF. What you need to do is get ready to short the dollar. Learn to trade spot forex: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF.
Watch these 4 pairs closely. the first two pair move together and the last two pair move together. In other words if you go long the first two then you wouild look to short the last two pair and vice versa.
You can invest in MERKX hard currency fund. It's vlaue goes up when the dollar goes down and gold goes up (12.5% in gold) It's up over 16.6% YTD. It is easy to put money in and take some or all of it out with no transaction fees and you can do it all within a browser.
Note that like all stocks and funds, this is not FDIC insured. However, keeping your money in a dollar denominated savings account is a financial death sentence.
16.6% is ok but the tax ramifications of owning a fund vs trading the physical outweighs the benefits. I'd rather be up 400% in the spot with soft tax implications then to be out of since with a fund. the dollar has fallen more than 40% off its highs and the fund is only up 16%???? that should tell you something... Funds and ETFs are not good long term instruments to hold money or benefit from falling dollar.
"the dollar has fallen more than 40% off its highs and the fund is only up 16%???? that should tell you something."
Yes; it means it has the potential to go much higher.
I do agree that there are better places to put your money. That is why I recommend you buy physical assets with money you plan on holding for the long haul and put your spending money in MERKX. The point is that if you are holding dollars because you want to stay liquid, you're much better off with them in MERKX.
sushi after the quarantine haha, good vid mot. Yes, I really have a hard time understanding why anyone in the world would buy a 30 yr bond for 2.52%. These people in US securities are going to get burned and really they deserve it.
Hyperbolic T-Bills. Good Exposé. $ 120 oil? Devastating. Now a second time around this scenario is not an option. People are already beginning to abandon cars along the road because towing service is so expensive. Seeing any of that lately? I am stunned at the increase.
Rock on. I would do 6 months out and a year out. I think the probability of being successful at the trade will be extremely high. You might want to cash a bit in when you hit 20 to 30 times your money.
THE WARNING! If you want some corruption google - the warning cftc video. It goes over what was going on behind close doors to NOT regulate the derivatives market!
and the point of your response is ???????????? the name calling is quite mature of you and really gets your point across very well and also shows your sanity !!!
MOT, technical question: in the video you say that a buyer of the 30 year T-Bond will get a 4.25% interest payment... do you not intend to say a 4.5% interest payment from the coupon?
Is the yield not collected at maturity instead of split up and issued yearly as you allude to in the video?
My parents are thinking about buying bonds for the grand kids as Christmas gifts but I'm trying to get them to buy gold and silver coins and give that as gifts instead.....I hope they listen. I think that is what I'm going to do this year along with Peter Schiffs books and maybe some MOT videos. My place in the Ozarks of Arkansas will soon be ready. It will be interesting to watch wall street react to the Christmas sales numbers in Jan--March.
I guess what this all comes down to is the choices facing the US. So, if the US wants a public option for health care, re-developed infrastructure, etc, the choice is clear: STOP BEING A GLOBAL EMPIRE!! One thing that history has shown us time and time again that there is a high price to be paid for being an empire. It can be sustained, but only for a short time. At some point, the wolves will beat at the door and the resources available to maintain an empire will become unattainable. Choices.
The U.S. is past saving. The game is over. We will have to start again after the collapse....but we will rebuild a better country than ever...in fact the whole world will be a much better place in 30 years or so.
Ive been playing a real time trading game in order to learn how to do it. Awesome way to learn if you wanna trade, but are afraid to....cause your trading in real time but your not buying real shares or using real money. Ive learned a lot between your vids, and this game i found. In the words of the MoT; Rock On! ;)
Always love your state of mind MoT...If i ever see you nervous thats a sign we should all run to the hills...lol. 5/5
I do actually. I live in the Hudson Valley so we tend to spend lots of time in the Mts here, and we just built a small cabin one summer. Whats your take on a serious "depression" like collapse? If you had to give it a time period in which you expect it to happen?
That is an excellent question. You have to go all the way down and come out of the rabbit hole to understand it. I think you should have your cabin ready as a Christmas present to yourself and loved ones.
Yup. Peter Schiff has been talking about getting into gold for quite some time. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know the US is spending. I've been doing research on the health care reform and stumbled upon the figures of 1.8 trillion deficit adding up each year. Somehow Obama said he plans on cutting it down to 1.4 or 1.5 trillion as if that's going to help out that much. That won't even buy us a year.
Prepare for a financial earthquake, tsunami, and hurricane for the next 10+ yrs.
But if they do that audit bill then all hell is gonna break loose. The worlds biggest digital paper shredder. I guarantee you Fed's won't be 2 steps to the front door with the search warrant and someone in the Fed will press that Red panic button and one giant shredder will activate. I am beyond broke anyway I am blessed just to have little bit of cash for food & ammo stash. I figure there is only a 6 month window the the re-election ass kissing will ramp up. If SHTF it will be soon.
The Fed needs to print at least another 2 trillion for any inflation to take- in other words replace the money that was printed by mortgages is at least another 2T jsut to get back to 0. No for. power can dictate treasury rates- it would mean the Euro was paying that high of rates, too. Not going to happen, although gold will rise some more in tandem to the declining dollar.
It all comes down to inflation or deflation. It seems odd that smart people can disagree on which way its going to go. Obviously, bonds are good during deflation. I don't buy into this dumping of the dollar theory - dump it for what, another fiat currency? Your own currency - which would cause it to rise? no
Deflation is logical - credit bubbles deflate and cannot be inflated until the bottom is reached - prices have not fallen but jobs are being lost - this is the calm before the storm.
I bought some gold a few years ago and sold it for a good profit last week. Its a decent play but you have to buy it before inflation hits. We've had major inflation since 82' or so - we've now come to the peak and its going to reverse. Principle and interest gong back to the banks yet new loans not covering this reversal. Throw in the reversal from the derivatives and you have a major contraction of the money supply at hand. Where's the inflation? oil, houses, cars, all down.
Hmm, I haven't ever considered the derivative market as a factor of the Money Supply. Academically speaking it isn't, however given it's affect on purchasing power , I can see your point. Thanks for sharing your viewpoint.
If war breaks out with iran there will be many job openings in the military, green shoot. High gas prices? more manufacturing jobs in the bicycle industry, green shoot. wealthy people losing tons of money? they'll start businesses to make that money back; new businesses need new employees, green shoot. there really aren't any downsides here.
it's best to order that suschi "well done" . Those who need training on how to catch fish "by hand", DEMCAD has a good instructional video.
Good advice on the "bonds" , you never hear this type of advice on regular tv. I always thought the higher the interest the better the investment but now I know better.
MOT, Love your vids man. You keep talking about how wealty people are going to get killed in the long bond or equities market and how sad that would be.
I'm of the attitude, that is troubleing but it won't be the end of the world for these folk. The really poor and people with their heads just above water are going to suffer the most, until the meek inherit the earth. I hope that day come because the Wealthy have done a bang up job of screwing up the works.
MOT, I'm commenting on your new style of presenting. This video is different than the others. Its a good organized composition. Its simple and sincere for a serious message.
Thank you for all of your hardwork with explaining the situation with the 30 year bond, a few members of my family have placed retirement money in these bonds. I hope to show them your video! Thank you so much! God Bless you!
A person can pay less for the same bond you own and get the same yield. So... a 100% increase in yield will drop the corpus by 50% on the 30 year bond in the short run.
If held to maturity, the principal is returned intact.
The problem is that, along the way, if one wants to sell the bond, new buyers will only give a price that gives them a satisfactory yield. If that required yield is higher than the yield you accepted, and you want to sell, then you will receive less back than you paid.
The 'risk-free' reputation of bonds is because the govt will give you back the agreed amount at the end of the term.
NT, Rev 2,9: I know your afflictions and your poverty- yet you are rich! I know the slander of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan. 10 Do not be afraid of what you are about to suffer. I tell you, the devil will put some of you in prison to test you, and you will suffer persecution for ten days. Be faithful, even to the point of death, and I will give you the crown of life.
I just started watching " fall of the republic" alex jones movie. I'm loving it. I agree with all of the guys on that film. I see hyperinflation, crashing of the dollar. World gov. and world currency. IMFcurrency to the rescue under the climate change treaty.
I have not started watching it yet but i want to organise a screening in my town for as many people as i can. Things are happening fast. Alex had a guy on his show the other day who said the US has only two years before it will be a 3rd world nation. I tried telling an American Friend of mine this and she got mad with me. Its amazing how some people hate to be disturbed from their dream. She even called me anti-American??? Huh i'm sick of seeing the greatest nation ever, go down the tubes
There's a retired professor of history named Chalmers Johnson who's written extensively on what causes empires to fall. It's interesting to note that Jones, )who gets emotionally hyped-up and even hysterical regarding his material) and Dr. Johnson (who is the model of calm, studied objectivity), reach similar conclusions about where the U.S. is headed. I don't know about the IMF currency one way or the other, but I think the rest of what you're predicting is pretty likely.
He's a Brilliant guy, and lives about 4 miles from me. I have never met him, but have felt that I should invite him to lunch some day as he seems like the type of special American that I would be sorry if I didn't meet him before he dies of old age someday.
If you have the opportunity, I'd urge you to meet with him. I saw three interviews with Dr. Johnson on C-Span as the war on terror unfolded, and he had a significant influence on my own conclusions regarding where we are heading.
According to the late J.K. Galbraith there have been many bubbles (financial history is 5 year long, ten years it disappers) the housing ppears to be the super bubble. What will goldman (GS) do to protect itself ?
Why would other countries drop the dollar? Maybe they have issues with the US spending most the dough on attacking other countries secretly. That function is utterly reprehensible. And when the dollar gets dumped, inflation will explode.
I agree with many of your ideas and fundamentals about the economy. However, why would I follow your financial adivce when it appears in your videos from your living standards you are not making as much money as you purport from your predictions.
If you agree with the ideas and fundamentals, I'd just go with that. There've been plenty of good financial analysts who, at a point in time, have hit on very hard times, and yet emerged by sticking to principles they believed in. If something rings true to you, that's the important thing.
People need to move out of gambling with the dollar and move their energy into real wealth. The US financial is a big game and the game has gotten too big to manage. My brothers and I used to play Monopoly and the "bank" would run out of money before we quit. So, we got more money from other board games and kept playing. After a while, usually a few hours, we all agreed that we had better things to do and we quit playing. I don't recall ever actually winning a game of Monopoly.
I'm thinking about one of these ETF's. Just not sure whether to jump in right away, or wait till March/April 2010 after I'm more certain there won't be another lending crisis stimulated by commercial real estate loans or residential foreclosures that the banks are intentionally delaying for now.
We have had deflation. Purposeful deflation. That will change in the next year. That is why I have not pounded the tables about inflation yet. And I still am not.
MOT - what do you think of the idea that before inflation becomes a threat and interest rates begin a sustained rise, we could see another stock market downturn followed by another stimulus plan? From what I hear, risks posed by borderline commercial real estate loans and delinquent home loans that have yet to be foreclosed on could create another banking crisis in the near term; if so, that may delay interest rate increases for a bit.
If the dollar rallies, that will put some heavy pressure on the markets...but according to my TA studies we are getting close to some sort of a top. Time will tell - Look for some trouble coming soon in the markets.
Mot - Lasr year, you predicted hyperinflation to happen in 2009. And again this spring, you predicted hyperiflation to definitely take a foothold before the end of 2009. And now you are not seeing this happen anytime soon? What made you change your mind?
I don't recall predicting hyperinflation in that time frame. Tell me where I did that and I will admit I was wrong. I have made videos about deflation, but think others are making the hyperinflation videos.
Are you acknowledging that you made the prediction and have been wrong up to now? That is how I interpret your comment as you are hoping it will still happen this year.
Credit is part of the money supply. After the housing bust, hundreds of billions of dollars were destroyed, and credit is tightening up.
Retailers are fiercely battling for customers. Google: amazon and walmart hardcover book war. They dropped prices from $10 down to 8.99. There are tons of coupons and deals where smart customers are getting grocery carts full of food for like, $20. There is downward pressure on price. It makes sense only if you consider credit part of Msupply
china will get upset if we raise the rates ?
Andreellos11 2 years ago
The long bond is market priced, as long as there's demand for those bonds the cost of the bond goes up while the yield falls. Don't you need to factor in the political enviorment as well? China, the largest holder of our debt, has a strong interest in helping the US economy stay healthy. Their own economy depends on Ameirca. Kinda a dam if they do dam if they don't situation. If China continues buying our debt, the rate on the long bond should stay low. Shorting the long bond is very risky
midlantic1 2 years ago
Excellent video
orangedac 2 years ago
Anybody know of any funds/way to invest in futures contracts/options, etc. to short the US Bond...I am fully happy to pay for performance since I know that one gets what one pays for generally..Thanks in advance!
brianblair2007 2 years ago
MOT
I don't understand. If stock market goes down, wouldn't bond prices be going up?
rogerli 2 years ago
Guys, prepare for a dark age. NY city looking like Mexico City with pickpocket thiefs and the streets loaded with hookers.
The Monetary System is dead and the Piramid Game is OVER! Buy Gold, Silver and lots of food
Good luck to you all!
Reno
ItsaDamnPuzzle 2 years ago
For those of you who want to short the 30 yrs T-Bill, You can consider UltraShort 20+Year Treasury ETF "TBT US",
rogerli 2 years ago
were allscrewed
jesus isnt coming
fuck this guy
scroatesque 2 years ago
Thanks MoT: You are.
Gold and other commodities seem to be the only safe haven left to invest.
Corn, copper, oil, etc. At least you are buying something besides a worthless piece of paper.
What's your view on this stategy?
StevePalRP 2 years ago
Most real things (not high end real estate) will continue to rise in value as measured in dollars. The dollar is doomed. It's fate is sealed. I like your comment and ideas.
manoftruth 2 years ago
Mot , search this article on google :
Follow The Herd And Short U.S. Treasury ETFs Today?
Tell us what you think of it .This guy on record advised to short treasuries January but now he says stay away !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
tuktukktotam 2 years ago
He is wrong.
manoftruth 2 years ago
no war with iran unless china lends us the money. The fed tightens and the dollar stablizes, china tightens, global growth slows if there is any at all right now, deflation. Stocks and commodities crater. Bonds remain flat or rally.
abdighazi 2 years ago
a lot of those worthless managers need to lose their jobs
I would have fired most of them
blow up worthless companies to over 150 PE ration ! :)
they are crazy nutcases
people will not buy that shit. fund managers do it . waste people retirement money hang them all publicly
tuktukktotam 2 years ago
This was the best video I've watched all weekend. Thanks mot.
LisaJ4Liberty 2 years ago
Thanks Lisa. Rock on!
manoftruth 2 years ago
steelydan -- you are confused. The 30yr rate is now about 4.3% -- a fair amount higher than 3.25% in Jan. So shorting long-term Treasuries as MOT recommended back in late '08 MADE MONEY!
jeff99az 2 years ago
I shorted them back in the early part of the year but covered a couple months ago as the intermediate term trend reversed down for 10yr and 30yr ... that "correction is still underway" ... probably the Fed is buying bonds to keep rates down. Can't let those mortgage rates go up and wreck the recovery (I'm being sarcastic, but that's their reasoning). The Fed (and Goldman Sucks) will probably pull this rally out in the next 6 months to scare people into buying Treasuries.
jeff99az 2 years ago
What a disingenuous mendacity.
You claim to be obsessed with the yields on bonds and the bond market then declare the most illogical statement of inconsistency that the last time you looked at it the yield on the 30 year was 3.25%
The yield on the 30 year was 3.25% in JANUARY 2009. 9-10 MONTHS AGO. Your credibility is now less than ZERO.
steelydan4848 2 years ago 2
Thanks M.O.T., Is 9% high enough? Remember that when buying any U.S. bond, your buying junk bonds.
justaoldslave 2 years ago
MOT...Clinton never had a balanced budget...the National Debt went up every year he was President...so it is impossible to have a balanced budget.
Buckhead1959 2 years ago
30 year bond? I think I'd rather buy gold.
doc7474 2 years ago
Yoke up with you on that one - rock on MOT.
HumanitysAdvocate 2 years ago
Thank you HA. May you rock on also!!!
manoftruth 2 years ago
Who is going pull one over on the crime syndicate?
mn8aol 2 years ago
I only have one question, and that's probably because I don't trade stocks. How do you short the 30 year bond a year out?
InvestigatEverything 2 years ago
There are several instruments to do so. One I follow is the ETF TBT. Caution howwever, the ETF masters are crooks. Many folks on the net are warning about ETFs. For instance the Silver and Gold ETFs SLV and GLD are not fully vested in silver or gold a large portion is just paper. God only knows how they are backing TBT. There are other ways and financial instruments perhaps others con comment on that and about what I said.
l13xquinn 2 years ago
How does one go about shorting the 30-year bond??? I totally agree with the analysis here, but how do we go about? Thx in advance!
brianblair2007 2 years ago
You can do it with futures contracts or a safer way is with options on futures contracts.
carlfinkle 2 years ago
Amen
manoftruth 2 years ago
Would not surprise me to see the 30year crash back to the lows of Aug 1981 at around 57, can anyone remember those days when rates were around 20%, that was when Paul Volcker was running the Fed.
They will do it again telling us they are fighting inflation. They have already started in Australia, they are already talking about raising rate by half a percent in Nov due to "inflation fears".
carlfinkle 2 years ago
Yes. I was graduating from BYU at the time with an undergrad in Finance. Money Market rates were 21 percent and 30 year mortgages were 14 percent. I will never forget it. MOT
manoftruth 2 years ago
Nicely done. I like the little bit of humor you throw in from time to tome. :-)
RedDelPaPa 2 years ago
thnks MOT
njboesman 2 years ago
Hey MOT,
Have you watched this short vid yet?
Introducing Jesus:
watch?v=cvCd_ANIKys
BeenInACaveWayToLong 2 years ago
Excellent video :)
Goldsovereignuk 2 years ago
Thank you.
manoftruth 2 years ago
great video!
numba1stunna4269 2 years ago
Thanks numba. How is society doing in your neck of the woods?
manoftruth 2 years ago
I'm in Miami, FL. Society is holding up. A lot of unemployment going on. I still think most people are completely oblivious to the upcoming hardship. They know nothing about monetary policy and our Keynsianism. They figure things will be looking up any second now. God help us all. Thanks for posting these videos. Lord knows we need more people seeing reality.
numba1stunna4269 2 years ago 3
Good show ! Thanks MOT !
artdeco101010 2 years ago
Hey artdeco, do you think it will get like scarface?
manoftruth 2 years ago
In some ways it feels like it already has - the scary part is how it seems like everyone is just on autopilot - youtube has become my "reality zone".
artdeco101010 2 years ago 3
OH! MoT....NOW I know what i was gonna ask, and this has me confused to the point of anger...lol. Why when the $ was dropped as the reserve on the 12th was the NY Times the ONLY one to report it? Everyone was hush hush....I could understand them not saying anything in order to not cause a panic. Im just confused on why that didnt make bigger news. I dont even hear about it from anyone on Youtube.....
Dt0x75 2 years ago
Rock on!
5*
PestControl02 2 years ago
hey MOT, what do you thing about the infamous Oct 25th/26th date???
chromedreamz 2 years ago
yea chrome whats the deal with that? I keep hearing Oct 25th, the 25th.....All I hear over and over. I made a prediction about the dollar for that date but it came early on the 12th....lol
Dt0x75 2 years ago
thanks for videoos
chromedreamz 2 years ago
Forget the ETF. What you need to do is get ready to short the dollar. Learn to trade spot forex: AUD/USD, EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF.
Watch these 4 pairs closely. the first two pair move together and the last two pair move together. In other words if you go long the first two then you wouild look to short the last two pair and vice versa.
good luck
Be encouraged
pulsescan72 2 years ago
Forget the ETF's and shorting the dollar.
You can invest in MERKX hard currency fund. It's vlaue goes up when the dollar goes down and gold goes up (12.5% in gold) It's up over 16.6% YTD. It is easy to put money in and take some or all of it out with no transaction fees and you can do it all within a browser.
Note that like all stocks and funds, this is not FDIC insured. However, keeping your money in a dollar denominated savings account is a financial death sentence.
jjenson2006 2 years ago
16.6% is ok but the tax ramifications of owning a fund vs trading the physical outweighs the benefits. I'd rather be up 400% in the spot with soft tax implications then to be out of since with a fund. the dollar has fallen more than 40% off its highs and the fund is only up 16%???? that should tell you something... Funds and ETFs are not good long term instruments to hold money or benefit from falling dollar.
pulsescan72 2 years ago
"the dollar has fallen more than 40% off its highs and the fund is only up 16%???? that should tell you something."
Yes; it means it has the potential to go much higher.
I do agree that there are better places to put your money. That is why I recommend you buy physical assets with money you plan on holding for the long haul and put your spending money in MERKX. The point is that if you are holding dollars because you want to stay liquid, you're much better off with them in MERKX.
jjenson2006 2 years ago
Oh, and another thing.
The dollar did not fall 40 off its highs. The high was 89 back in march and it's currently at around 75. That means it is down by around 15.5%.
If you want to go by valley (when dollar peaked) to now, MERKX is up around 30% which is approximately a direct correlation.
jjenson2006 2 years ago
I'm a beginner with no experience in financials, but I always learn something with each of your vids. Thank you.
JOHNNYH8STHENWO 2 years ago
Good vid. Back on track!
BeenInACaveWayToLong 2 years ago 2
I agree. 8.5% interest on US bonds is probable, and it would destroy us.
Why isn't Congress dramatically cutting Federal spending? Are they honestly this blind????
kja5 2 years ago
Shorting anything requires the patience to wait it out. Be careful people.
WHEREtheFUNK 2 years ago
Great info... thanks.
t4ac3y1 2 years ago
thanks for watching and commenting. MOT
manoftruth 2 years ago
I bought TBT - bond short ETF - and loss $10 a share
Powdermonkey99 2 years ago
YOUR LOOKING A LOT OLDER MOT??? U OKAY
weapons33 2 years ago 6
sushi after the quarantine haha, good vid mot. Yes, I really have a hard time understanding why anyone in the world would buy a 30 yr bond for 2.52%. These people in US securities are going to get burned and really they deserve it.
MelodicNightmare 2 years ago
Hyperbolic T-Bills. Good Exposé. $ 120 oil? Devastating. Now a second time around this scenario is not an option. People are already beginning to abandon cars along the road because towing service is so expensive. Seeing any of that lately? I am stunned at the increase.
curiousEGM 2 years ago
Aim the camera a little bit higher.
MrBankRuns 2 years ago
MOT
Im gonna put the trade on
How far out would you gol
If this hits, you will have a lot more than sushi show up at your door.
peace
mejt223 2 years ago
Rock on. I would do 6 months out and a year out. I think the probability of being successful at the trade will be extremely high. You might want to cash a bit in when you hit 20 to 30 times your money.
manoftruth 2 years ago
THE WARNING! If you want some corruption google - the warning cftc video. It goes over what was going on behind close doors to NOT regulate the derivatives market!
campeona5 2 years ago
m o t rock on...nice to see you man...lookin good
great call i like it...if you are ever in tokyo..love to take u out for sushi take care lift hard and stay pure...
bjmccullough 2 years ago
Thanks! You guys do have the best sushi over there.
manoftruth 2 years ago
I think this is the first time I have seen you look cold...
/tangent
omiolo 2 years ago
lol, Starting to cool off here in Utah....and hair is a bit wet.
manoftruth 2 years ago
Great video MoT. Rated 5 stars and favorited. Rock on man.
LibertyResolute 2 years ago
Thanks, Liberty. I had a few requests for some financial videos, so I laid out a pretty heavy one here.
manoftruth 2 years ago
and the point of your response is ???????????? the name calling is quite mature of you and really gets your point across very well and also shows your sanity !!!
PREPAREORSUFFER 2 years ago
MOT, technical question: in the video you say that a buyer of the 30 year T-Bond will get a 4.25% interest payment... do you not intend to say a 4.5% interest payment from the coupon?
Is the yield not collected at maturity instead of split up and issued yearly as you allude to in the video?
Screwschom 2 years ago
I am talking if they bought one today. The current yield, since it would be bought at a slight discount would be 4.25 percent if held to maturity.
manoftruth 2 years ago
My parents are thinking about buying bonds for the grand kids as Christmas gifts but I'm trying to get them to buy gold and silver coins and give that as gifts instead.....I hope they listen. I think that is what I'm going to do this year along with Peter Schiffs books and maybe some MOT videos. My place in the Ozarks of Arkansas will soon be ready. It will be interesting to watch wall street react to the Christmas sales numbers in Jan--March.
manofreedom 2 years ago 2
I guess what this all comes down to is the choices facing the US. So, if the US wants a public option for health care, re-developed infrastructure, etc, the choice is clear: STOP BEING A GLOBAL EMPIRE!! One thing that history has shown us time and time again that there is a high price to be paid for being an empire. It can be sustained, but only for a short time. At some point, the wolves will beat at the door and the resources available to maintain an empire will become unattainable. Choices.
bearmare 2 years ago
The U.S. is past saving. The game is over. We will have to start again after the collapse....but we will rebuild a better country than ever...in fact the whole world will be a much better place in 30 years or so.
manoftruth 2 years ago
Ive been playing a real time trading game in order to learn how to do it. Awesome way to learn if you wanna trade, but are afraid to....cause your trading in real time but your not buying real shares or using real money. Ive learned a lot between your vids, and this game i found. In the words of the MoT; Rock On! ;)
Always love your state of mind MoT...If i ever see you nervous thats a sign we should all run to the hills...lol. 5/5
Dt0x75 2 years ago
lol thanks. Better have your place in the hills prepared soon.
manoftruth 2 years ago
I do actually. I live in the Hudson Valley so we tend to spend lots of time in the Mts here, and we just built a small cabin one summer. Whats your take on a serious "depression" like collapse? If you had to give it a time period in which you expect it to happen?
Dt0x75 2 years ago
That is an excellent question. You have to go all the way down and come out of the rabbit hole to understand it. I think you should have your cabin ready as a Christmas present to yourself and loved ones.
manoftruth 2 years ago
ty MoT...Always look fwd to your advice.
Dt0x75 2 years ago 2
Yup. Peter Schiff has been talking about getting into gold for quite some time. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to know the US is spending. I've been doing research on the health care reform and stumbled upon the figures of 1.8 trillion deficit adding up each year. Somehow Obama said he plans on cutting it down to 1.4 or 1.5 trillion as if that's going to help out that much. That won't even buy us a year.
Prepare for a financial earthquake, tsunami, and hurricane for the next 10+ yrs.
addiktion13 2 years ago
But if they do that audit bill then all hell is gonna break loose. The worlds biggest digital paper shredder. I guarantee you Fed's won't be 2 steps to the front door with the search warrant and someone in the Fed will press that Red panic button and one giant shredder will activate. I am beyond broke anyway I am blessed just to have little bit of cash for food & ammo stash. I figure there is only a 6 month window the the re-election ass kissing will ramp up. If SHTF it will be soon.
vashguud 2 years ago
dollar already lost more than 15 % value so what is big deal by making 5 % a year if dollar losing value like a used pumpkin pie ?
who in the right mind would want to invest in those papers ?
tuktukktotam 2 years ago
amen
manoftruth 2 years ago
those that had no choice and those who profit from fees making the recommendation
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
Skousen proven wrong yet again!
The Fed needs to print at least another 2 trillion for any inflation to take- in other words replace the money that was printed by mortgages is at least another 2T jsut to get back to 0. No for. power can dictate treasury rates- it would mean the Euro was paying that high of rates, too. Not going to happen, although gold will rise some more in tandem to the declining dollar.
BluePhilDog 2 years ago
tys for posting
vid
gazoorap 2 years ago
If you know what the fed is going to do, then you can place the trade.
manoftruth 2 years ago
It's really clear how the U.S.A. is teetering on the brink of huge inflation.
slobomotion 2 years ago
oui
manoftruth 2 years ago
So when is this quarantine supposed to happen?
Picknroll6 2 years ago
I would watch that closely. Could happen before Christmas.
manoftruth 2 years ago
It all comes down to inflation or deflation. It seems odd that smart people can disagree on which way its going to go. Obviously, bonds are good during deflation. I don't buy into this dumping of the dollar theory - dump it for what, another fiat currency? Your own currency - which would cause it to rise? no
Deflation is logical - credit bubbles deflate and cannot be inflated until the bottom is reached - prices have not fallen but jobs are being lost - this is the calm before the storm.
jdcremin 2 years ago
I advised dumping dollars for gold a couple of years ago. Those that did did EXTREMELY well.
manoftruth 2 years ago
I bought some gold a few years ago and sold it for a good profit last week. Its a decent play but you have to buy it before inflation hits. We've had major inflation since 82' or so - we've now come to the peak and its going to reverse. Principle and interest gong back to the banks yet new loans not covering this reversal. Throw in the reversal from the derivatives and you have a major contraction of the money supply at hand. Where's the inflation? oil, houses, cars, all down.
jdcremin 2 years ago
Hmm, I haven't ever considered the derivative market as a factor of the Money Supply. Academically speaking it isn't, however given it's affect on purchasing power , I can see your point. Thanks for sharing your viewpoint.
Screwschom 2 years ago
Very interest -ing.
Howouldado 2 years ago
If war breaks out with iran there will be many job openings in the military, green shoot. High gas prices? more manufacturing jobs in the bicycle industry, green shoot. wealthy people losing tons of money? they'll start businesses to make that money back; new businesses need new employees, green shoot. there really aren't any downsides here.
pentel1911 2 years ago
major downside for many, upside for others
manoftruth 2 years ago
Comment removed
meikagirl 2 years ago
I'm dumping gold and buying a 30 bond, because the Fed will get the 30 year rate down even lower by printing more money.
davincij15 2 years ago
I disagree in the medium and long term...and maybe even in the short term
manoftruth 2 years ago
It's a joke, even if the fed purchased the 30 year note to get the rate down the debt holder will still lose to real inflation.
One thing I would not do is short those bonds, you are going up against the Fed who has a printing press and is not shy about using it.
davincij15 2 years ago
The fed will switch gears at some point. The key is to know when.
manoftruth 2 years ago
it's best to order that suschi "well done" . Those who need training on how to catch fish "by hand", DEMCAD has a good instructional video.
Good advice on the "bonds" , you never hear this type of advice on regular tv. I always thought the higher the interest the better the investment but now I know better.
jonyjoe896 2 years ago
Five Stars My Friend!
MadBadVoodo 2 years ago 2
MOT, Love your vids man. You keep talking about how wealty people are going to get killed in the long bond or equities market and how sad that would be.
I'm of the attitude, that is troubleing but it won't be the end of the world for these folk. The really poor and people with their heads just above water are going to suffer the most, until the meek inherit the earth. I hope that day come because the Wealthy have done a bang up job of screwing up the works.
valhala56 2 years ago
who's to say that when **** hits the fan that the government doesn't just say sorry!
deborahadams1 2 years ago
MOT, I'm commenting on your new style of presenting. This video is different than the others. Its a good organized composition. Its simple and sincere for a serious message.
ctwright82 2 years ago 2
pretty soon
if you want sushi
you will have to
jump in the ocean
and catch it yourself ...
wasabi and long shredded
parsnips...
possibly fermented..
chena3 2 years ago
Nice, chena, nice!
manoftruth 2 years ago
Thank you for all of your hardwork with explaining the situation with the 30 year bond, a few members of my family have placed retirement money in these bonds. I hope to show them your video! Thank you so much! God Bless you!
POSSUMTOHIDE 2 years ago
Get them out now, if you can.
manoftruth 2 years ago
How will the stock market move with the increasing interest rates?
yomeyo99 2 years ago
Good question. You have to consider how it is being manipulated to begin to form meaningful conclusions.
manoftruth 2 years ago
Why does the principal value go down when the interest rate goes up?
yomeyo99 2 years ago
A person can pay less for the same bond you own and get the same yield. So... a 100% increase in yield will drop the corpus by 50% on the 30 year bond in the short run.
manoftruth 2 years ago
I think it is because the bond with the lower rate isn't as valuable as the one with the higher rate.
tradergee1 2 years ago
correct.
manoftruth 2 years ago
yes - good question. that was an intuitive leap in logic that left me confused. Why should the principal change at all?
hnsbro 2 years ago
If held to maturity, the principal is returned intact.
The problem is that, along the way, if one wants to sell the bond, new buyers will only give a price that gives them a satisfactory yield. If that required yield is higher than the yield you accepted, and you want to sell, then you will receive less back than you paid.
The 'risk-free' reputation of bonds is because the govt will give you back the agreed amount at the end of the term.
The RISK, however, is what happens along the way.
flaskofcoffee 2 years ago
The gov will not be giving anything back 5 to 10 years from now
manoftruth 2 years ago
Well, for sure... that would take any joy out of holding for 30 years. ;-)
I agree with you, by the way, that bonds will fall at some point - just tossed in the technical meaning of 'hold to expiry' vs 'sell along the way'.
Cheers.
flaskofcoffee 2 years ago
thanks for the explaination - 'risk along the way' makes even more sense when you are talking about a time period as long as 30 yrs.
hnsbro 2 years ago
long parsnips
and poppies..
short badgers ..
and their
mean little noses ...
400 oz bars
tungsten free
half a mil ..
chena3 2 years ago
I agree with you, but the Fed is maniupating those markets by buying treasuries. I'd rather not fight the Fed on my trades.
GypsyHustle 2 years ago
Major Amen on this comment! The key is to get in their heads and figure out what they are going to do.
manoftruth 2 years ago
Great vid, thx for the post MOT
visionvictory 2 years ago
Vision, you rock...and if I ever disappear I want people to follow your videos and your pure spirit.
manoftruth 2 years ago
NT, Rev 2,9: I know your afflictions and your poverty- yet you are rich! I know the slander of those who say they are Jews and are not, but are a synagogue of Satan. 10 Do not be afraid of what you are about to suffer. I tell you, the devil will put some of you in prison to test you, and you will suffer persecution for ten days. Be faithful, even to the point of death, and I will give you the crown of life.
chapthe 2 years ago 4
I just started watching " fall of the republic" alex jones movie. I'm loving it. I agree with all of the guys on that film. I see hyperinflation, crashing of the dollar. World gov. and world currency. IMFcurrency to the rescue under the climate change treaty.
jaingxu 2 years ago
I have not started watching it yet but i want to organise a screening in my town for as many people as i can. Things are happening fast. Alex had a guy on his show the other day who said the US has only two years before it will be a 3rd world nation. I tried telling an American Friend of mine this and she got mad with me. Its amazing how some people hate to be disturbed from their dream. She even called me anti-American??? Huh i'm sick of seeing the greatest nation ever, go down the tubes
Justyburger 2 years ago
There's a retired professor of history named Chalmers Johnson who's written extensively on what causes empires to fall. It's interesting to note that Jones, )who gets emotionally hyped-up and even hysterical regarding his material) and Dr. Johnson (who is the model of calm, studied objectivity), reach similar conclusions about where the U.S. is headed. I don't know about the IMF currency one way or the other, but I think the rest of what you're predicting is pretty likely.
Tigerpaws9097826 2 years ago
Yep
manoftruth 2 years ago
He's a Brilliant guy, and lives about 4 miles from me. I have never met him, but have felt that I should invite him to lunch some day as he seems like the type of special American that I would be sorry if I didn't meet him before he dies of old age someday.
jarden69 2 years ago
If you have the opportunity, I'd urge you to meet with him. I saw three interviews with Dr. Johnson on C-Span as the war on terror unfolded, and he had a significant influence on my own conclusions regarding where we are heading.
Tigerpaws9097826 2 years ago
How high would the fed discount rate have to go if the fed wanted to curtail or pull in the inevitable inflation they have created?
dx11101 2 years ago
20% MINIMUM.....probably much higher
zappos49 2 years ago
true that
manoftruth 2 years ago
Hey MOT How do you short the 30 year bond ?
What do you do buy ?
boots920 2 years ago 3
MOT,
According to the late J.K. Galbraith there have been many bubbles (financial history is 5 year long, ten years it disappers) the housing ppears to be the super bubble. What will goldman (GS) do to protect itself ?
ad2181 2 years ago
front run its clients using high frequency trading
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
get out of the market,buy gold or silver.leave the bank
bash186 2 years ago 2
..."We were singing,
...Bye bye miss american pie,
Drove my chevy to the levee,
But the levee was dry.
Them good old boys were drinking whiskey and rye,
an singin, this'll be the day that I die,
This'll be the day that I die.
Don McLean.
tetekofa 2 years ago 5
Why would other countries drop the dollar? Maybe they have issues with the US spending most the dough on attacking other countries secretly. That function is utterly reprehensible. And when the dollar gets dumped, inflation will explode.
realmajimac 2 years ago
I know a few Rich folk who believe the good ol US will do just Fine. And would laugh at your opinion on the 30yr T-Bill
Repomex01 2 years ago
I agree with many of your ideas and fundamentals about the economy. However, why would I follow your financial adivce when it appears in your videos from your living standards you are not making as much money as you purport from your predictions.
drvenkman16 2 years ago
So its all about living standards with you?
manoftruth 2 years ago
If you agree with the ideas and fundamentals, I'd just go with that. There've been plenty of good financial analysts who, at a point in time, have hit on very hard times, and yet emerged by sticking to principles they believed in. If something rings true to you, that's the important thing.
Tigerpaws9097826 2 years ago
Amen, Bro!
manoftruth 2 years ago
Looking rich does not equal being rich.
Being rich does not equal looking rich.
shtosuka 2 years ago
Good to see you putting your cards on the table MOT. Nothing validates a prophecy better than evidence of its prediction. Rock on. lol
PsyogiBottoms 2 years ago
u rock on 2!! MOT
manoftruth 2 years ago
People need to move out of gambling with the dollar and move their energy into real wealth. The US financial is a big game and the game has gotten too big to manage. My brothers and I used to play Monopoly and the "bank" would run out of money before we quit. So, we got more money from other board games and kept playing. After a while, usually a few hours, we all agreed that we had better things to do and we quit playing. I don't recall ever actually winning a game of Monopoly.
jailarson 2 years ago
How do you short the 30 year bond? I didn't know you could short U.S. bonds
AndyMH182 2 years ago 2
tbt
manoftruth 2 years ago
Exchange traded funds: TBF (Short), TBT (2X Short)
TonyUnplugged 2 years ago 2
I'm thinking about one of these ETF's. Just not sure whether to jump in right away, or wait till March/April 2010 after I'm more certain there won't be another lending crisis stimulated by commercial real estate loans or residential foreclosures that the banks are intentionally delaying for now.
Tigerpaws9097826 2 years ago
Smart people don't invest in bonds.
Why would any rational person tie up their money for such a horrible return?
4.25% LOL!!!!! The Inflation rate is around 3 times that amount!!
Pvtjamesryan2 2 years ago 5
There are a few trillion invested there. That is the way the world works right now.
manoftruth 2 years ago
Some people believe deflation is here to stay for awhile, much like what Japan went through.
And in many areas of our economy, we're experiencing deflation. But at the same time the dollar is losing value ( fell below 75 ).
Iunno, but PMs and other commodities are THE place to be.
AndyMH182 2 years ago
We have had deflation. Purposeful deflation. That will change in the next year. That is why I have not pounded the tables about inflation yet. And I still am not.
manoftruth 2 years ago
MOT - what do you think of the idea that before inflation becomes a threat and interest rates begin a sustained rise, we could see another stock market downturn followed by another stimulus plan? From what I hear, risks posed by borderline commercial real estate loans and delinquent home loans that have yet to be foreclosed on could create another banking crisis in the near term; if so, that may delay interest rate increases for a bit.
Tigerpaws9097826 2 years ago
I think the stock market will head down again. When investors realize that bank earnings are artificial, we will see another downturn in stocks.
manoftruth 2 years ago
market is heavily weighed on by the dollar...
If the dollar rallies, that will put some heavy pressure on the markets...but according to my TA studies we are getting close to some sort of a top. Time will tell - Look for some trouble coming soon in the markets.
Get ready for a big bowl of Sushi MOT.
myspacesecrets 2 years ago
rock on thanks!
manoftruth 2 years ago
Mot - Lasr year, you predicted hyperinflation to happen in 2009. And again this spring, you predicted hyperiflation to definitely take a foothold before the end of 2009. And now you are not seeing this happen anytime soon? What made you change your mind?
T8864 2 years ago
I don't recall predicting hyperinflation in that time frame. Tell me where I did that and I will admit I was wrong. I have made videos about deflation, but think others are making the hyperinflation videos.
manoftruth 2 years ago
MOT - For one as a start, your video Nov 06 - 2007 titled: Predictions coming true - Hyperinflation by 2009
T8864 2 years ago 2
thanks. 09 is FAR from over
manoftruth 2 years ago
MOT - Missed your response.
Are you acknowledging that you made the prediction and have been wrong up to now? That is how I interpret your comment as you are hoping it will still happen this year.
T8864 2 years ago
I don't understand why you used the term deflation? I seldom see better purchasing power with the dollar.
Do you mind taking the time to clarify what you mean?
Pvtjamesryan2 2 years ago
Credit is part of the money supply. After the housing bust, hundreds of billions of dollars were destroyed, and credit is tightening up.
Retailers are fiercely battling for customers. Google: amazon and walmart hardcover book war. They dropped prices from $10 down to 8.99. There are tons of coupons and deals where smart customers are getting grocery carts full of food for like, $20. There is downward pressure on price. It makes sense only if you consider credit part of Msupply
AndyMH182 2 years ago
>It makes sense only if you consider credit part of Msupply
which you have to because it is a debt economy
DavidAKZ 2 years ago
Do you have some specific references to deflation thanks ?
DavidAKZ