@dink65 Yeah 50K sounds about right where I live...so much for me ever even thinking of living in Cali...some of the most expensive real estate in the country. Still some nice places out there though.
@dink65 because it can probably rent for $2000/mo. Two roommates @ $1000/each.
$690K @ 3.88% 15 year FHA has a total carrying cost (PITI less the P) of $2300/mo or so. Sucker almost cash-flows at list price, plus if rates go down any more (NOT impossible) one can re-fi that 15 into a 30 @ say 3% to really make a killing.
@dink65 Nope, price doesn't matter at all, what matters (for the non-cash buyer) is the monthly nut.
For cash buyers, a person looking to put away money for 10 years can get 3% from the government. What will this house go for in 10 years? If prior large trends are any guide, $1.2M or so, nice 6% annual gain.
I happen to think wages are going to continue to be under pressure this decade, which will hold down rents (and values), but there are some very big fish swimming in these coastal markets.
@tachikaze222 - Dude, that's what has been going on for the last 50 years. That will change and change dramatically in the coming years and decades. PRICE ALWAYS MATTERS!!!!!!
rents have been going up since we first stole the land from the Mexicans, and interest rates have been going down since 1983, from ~20% to today's 4%.
(The bubble was partially fueled by the teaser rate / negative-am rates of 2-3%) Buying always wins in the end, thanks to Prop 13 and the inflation we've seen since 1945.
Rents have always gone up, but interest costs go down, property taxes remain low.
@tachikaze222 - Regarding the "big fish" - they are also VERY GOOD at losing money just like anyone else. And they will give back a HUGE portion of their (what I consider to be) Ill-gotten gains of the last 20 years........
@tachikaze222 - What inflation are you talking about? We already had it for the last 20 years. The "hyper-inflation" talk is the big myth that everyone buying now is counting on. They will be SEVERELY disappointed and many of them bankrupted. It's not about "supply & demand" it's still about fraudulent lending supporting these insanely ludicrous prices.
The bubble in CA has STILL not burst. But it will soon enough. It's just math....
I didn't say hyper-inflation, I just said normal inflation. I lived in Japan for most of the 90s so I know that monetary inflation does not necessarily result in wage inflation, and I do not think prices will be going up much this decade.
However, many people in the market disagree about this, either through ignorance or they know something I don't.
>It's still about fraudulent lending supporting these insanely ludicrous prices
@dink65 Nobody can reliably predict the timing of future price movements. It's a corollary to the rule that the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.
A long term investor just needs to make a return when the investment is sold. Until then, it's cash flow and opportunity cost. A surprising number of them don't factor in inflation and accept a notional return that is in reality negative after inflation and taxes. Caveat emptor.
Prop 13 limits supply since anyone who bought in the 80s or 90s can rent out their properties for 10X the property tax . Many places like this one have a $150/mo property tax and $1500/mo rent easily. Nice thing about being close to the beach is you have no cooling bills ($300/mo in summer) and only a couple of months of heating bills. That $2000/yr+ savings goes right into property values -- $50K or so at today's interest rates.
LOL $680,000! My car is worth more than that rats' nest and I bought it new for 70,000 Euros.
IKilled007 1 year ago
Comment removed
COM0fAek 1 year ago
I likes those "fork" cabinet handles.
Be great because you could hang your dishrag and potholder on em.
Hey Jim, if you go back there liberate those babies for me, huh?
MamaPangging 1 year ago
@dink65 Yeah 50K sounds about right where I live...so much for me ever even thinking of living in Cali...some of the most expensive real estate in the country. Still some nice places out there though.
kramer727272 1 year ago
@dink65 because it can probably rent for $2000/mo. Two roommates @ $1000/each.
$690K @ 3.88% 15 year FHA has a total carrying cost (PITI less the P) of $2300/mo or so. Sucker almost cash-flows at list price, plus if rates go down any more (NOT impossible) one can re-fi that 15 into a 30 @ say 3% to really make a killing.
tachikaze222 1 year ago
@tachikaze222 - I really don't give a $-h-i-t about what "carrying costs" are with financing. PRICE MATTERS!
dink65 1 year ago
@dink65 Nope, price doesn't matter at all, what matters (for the non-cash buyer) is the monthly nut.
For cash buyers, a person looking to put away money for 10 years can get 3% from the government. What will this house go for in 10 years? If prior large trends are any guide, $1.2M or so, nice 6% annual gain.
I happen to think wages are going to continue to be under pressure this decade, which will hold down rents (and values), but there are some very big fish swimming in these coastal markets.
tachikaze222 1 year ago
@tachikaze222 - Dude, that's what has been going on for the last 50 years. That will change and change dramatically in the coming years and decades. PRICE ALWAYS MATTERS!!!!!!
dink65 1 year ago
@dink65 rents and interest rates matter more.
rents have been going up since we first stole the land from the Mexicans, and interest rates have been going down since 1983, from ~20% to today's 4%.
(The bubble was partially fueled by the teaser rate / negative-am rates of 2-3%) Buying always wins in the end, thanks to Prop 13 and the inflation we've seen since 1945.
Rents have always gone up, but interest costs go down, property taxes remain low.
Welcome to California.
tachikaze222 1 year ago
@tachikaze222 - Regarding the "big fish" - they are also VERY GOOD at losing money just like anyone else. And they will give back a HUGE portion of their (what I consider to be) Ill-gotten gains of the last 20 years........
dink65 1 year ago
@dink65 Don't get me wrong, I think the current system stinks like old fish. If I were King I'd ditch Prop 13 on non-owner occupied in a heartbeat.
But the fact of the matter is that unless inflation stops, buying at any price will eventually be profitable.
But with real estate, location does matter to a great extent. Supply & demand.
tachikaze222 1 year ago
@tachikaze222 - What inflation are you talking about? We already had it for the last 20 years. The "hyper-inflation" talk is the big myth that everyone buying now is counting on. They will be SEVERELY disappointed and many of them bankrupted. It's not about "supply & demand" it's still about fraudulent lending supporting these insanely ludicrous prices.
The bubble in CA has STILL not burst. But it will soon enough. It's just math....
dink65 1 year ago
@dink65
I didn't say hyper-inflation, I just said normal inflation. I lived in Japan for most of the 90s so I know that monetary inflation does not necessarily result in wage inflation, and I do not think prices will be going up much this decade.
However, many people in the market disagree about this, either through ignorance or they know something I don't.
>It's still about fraudulent lending supporting these insanely ludicrous prices
What do you think this will rent at now? In 2020?
tachikaze222 1 year ago
@dink65 Nobody can reliably predict the timing of future price movements. It's a corollary to the rule that the market can be irrational longer than you can be solvent.
A long term investor just needs to make a return when the investment is sold. Until then, it's cash flow and opportunity cost. A surprising number of them don't factor in inflation and accept a notional return that is in reality negative after inflation and taxes. Caveat emptor.
maniacalmike 1 year ago
heh, I was guessing $690K.
tachikaze222 1 year ago
LOL, I was thinking $249,000
v1d30junk 1 year ago
nice benz. mandatory for real estate.
djgrooveline 1 year ago
689K for that? You guys in Cali are out of your mother loving minds lol.
kramer727272 1 year ago
@kramer727272
supply and demand my friend, supply and demand
Prop 13 limits supply since anyone who bought in the 80s or 90s can rent out their properties for 10X the property tax . Many places like this one have a $150/mo property tax and $1500/mo rent easily. Nice thing about being close to the beach is you have no cooling bills ($300/mo in summer) and only a couple of months of heating bills. That $2000/yr+ savings goes right into property values -- $50K or so at today's interest rates.
tachikaze222 1 year ago
Wish the beach wasn't so expensive.
Thanks for the tour Jim.
mja2035 1 year ago
Way to sell it jim!
bunkermunk 1 year ago