TPMtv: 2008 General Election Roundup #1

[mattandshane]

this video got my pusssssyyyy wweeeettttt!!! c me on cam! n

[arjosca]

You have got to be out of your mind if you vote Obama. I'm from Chicago and he is part of the political machine here. You think he was elected to that senate seat he's not serving? It was practically given to him. Chicago has the highest taxes in the USA and has the most corrupt political system. And these idiot Obama supporters want this guy in the White House? It makes no sense. America will get it right: Obama loses on a landslide. I hope the police are ready for the riots to come...

[SunnyKid975]

Sept 2 Polls:

Gallup Tracking: Obama +8

Rasmussen Track: Obama +6

USA Today : Obama +7

Hotline/FD : Obama +9

CBS News : Obama +8

Nice bump after convention.

OBama / Biden 2008

[CoronaDays]

Sept 5 Polls

USA Today : McCain +10

I don't see Obama Bin Biden with those numbers!

Was not just a bump it was a jump after the convention!

[SerpentScribe7]

By the way, 0613, voting Independent could be a good idea, but if the candidates are Lou Dobbs or especially Nader, you're just shooting yourself in the foot. Cynthia McKinney will do all that and much more effieciently without wrecking the liberal vote in swing states like Nader has most likely been paid off by republicans to do time and time again! She was the first black congresswoman in Georgia but was ousted by the DEMS for asking too many questions about 9/11...!

[coreyrocks14]

ummm... democrats pay attention.

how come liberals don't want the 2001&2003 tax cuts to stay???

john mccain atleast wants to benefit single families with the tax cuts.

i looked at hillary and obama's views which stated... "no tax cuts!!"

wow.... ok.

and they didn't have a reason either.

why are people still democrat???

you know obama is only popular with mostly african-americans and some stupid whites.

mitt romney, it sucks you did not make it!!

oh well.

[SerpentScribe7]

You are seriously blind if you believe those tax cuts have at ALL helped middle-class families! They were for the wealthiest 5-10%, and that's being charitable!! Obama's popularity is Obama's popularity, it's only your xenophobic media that lets you believe its just race. As progressive as I am, Im not supporting Obama in my heart because I know he won't actually change anything except a few symbolic measures. At least hes not McCain, who will plunge us even further into this very real recession

[heywoodjablohme]

Veracifier and Josh are great! I love their reporting, it is expert! I'd like to see them comment on the Barr/Root candidacy, and question --in depth-- how much they think Barr is likely to hurt McCain (and maybe Obama) in different states. Also curious about their position on Baldwin (CP) and other third party candidates, especially since Veracifier serves to inform voting trends as well as track them... :)

[0613162k]

Vote INDEPENDENT. Vote NADER. He is the ONLY candidate left that will:

1 Impeach Bush to hold him acountable 4 crimes

2 Against telecom immunity

3 Ending war in Iraq AND ONLY candidate that WILL END OCCUPATION IN IRAQ

4 Cutting unnessecary military spending unlike the 2 parties causing further debt

5 No threat of war against Iran

6 No wasting US taxpayers money on military aid 2 foreign countries & factions that backfires on US national secuity

7 For single payer universal healthcare

[Roisin3]

What a lovely clear comment for the non US viewer.

[ver506]

Yeah, they rock, don't they? It's only June however like you said. Let's go Team Obama!!!!

[Gook14]

If you really think that the elections don't really count, I pity you. After all, it would be the other way around if they were fixed, as the media hates Bush. You think Kerry and Gore beat Bush? You really think that?

[Gook14]

Whoever leads right after the primary usually loses.

[fywacia]

Once the paperless voting machines are used to throw the election we will have 4 more years of Bush in the form of Mccain. If Obama wins he will do as he's told in order to avoid being the next JFK.

[southalgent]

our presidents are SELECTED not ELECTED. It's all a wonderful little play to entertain the masses and maintain the illusion they have a choice.

[makaisenki]

then obviously you know exactly who is going to win and who the exact people that are pulling the strings are. If so, then prove it. If not, then... you're just another conspiracy theorist.

[bigjstokes]

Does anyone know if Veracifier has admitted to having a large bias towards democrats?

(For the record, I'm an Obama supporter, I just want to know if there's supposed to be some kind of secret, because it seems obvious to me)

[benprusak]

I don't think they put up any pretensions of objectivity.

[crazations]

What a choice you have in (s)Elections:

The Republicrats or The Demicons

They all work for the same international corporations!

Does anyone know why the war costs so much?

They already had the troops and the equipment, so are they really spending that much on bombs and bullets?

Has anyone noticed that all the Rights were Amendments to the Constitution? Thankfully a few spoke out against tyranny in 1776!

Watch my film 'Minority of One' to see the only man left in the UK who has Free Speech!

[totallyautomatic0]

john mccain called his wife a cun*

[itsasin702]

Hillary would have won. Obama will loose. When Kerry Clinched the nomination he held a 20 point lead over Bush....Obama has had his higest lead of 6 points. lol. even with an extremely unpopular president lol

[greg2009]

kerry didn't have a 20 point lead over Bush. Poll mean nothing until late Aug to late October. Based on all the controversy, if Hillary would have overtaken Obama and clinched the nomination, I don't think she could be McCain. Black voters would stay home because blacks would have seen her campaign and her nomination as racist. Dems can't win a presidential election without large black or black turnout. Latinos would need to help her win.

[itsasin702]

yes kerry did lead bush by 20 points when he clinched the nomination. and at the time people thought the democrat would win because bush was still very unpopular. and u are saying hillary couldn't beat mccain? um news flash the black vote is prevelant in states that usually go red anyway. obama hada huge weakness with working class voters in the critical swing states. yeah hillary's not gonna win georgia or south carolina but chances are neither will obama.hillarywouldhave won ohio not obama tho

[greg2009]

I know that the black vote is prevalant in Southern red states because.I'm not silly! Hillary or any Democrat can't win swing states like OH, MI, Penn, MO, FLA, VA, with out a strong majority of the black vote. Hillary would have trouble because a majority of white don't vote Democrat and need some black votes to make up for that. Voters in the South vote along racial lines. Whites vote 75% for Rep/blacks vote 90% for the Dems.Democrats can't win in the South because of that.Polls mean nothing!!

[itsasin702]

You think the swing voters are going to vote for obama? the reagan democrats? i have news for you they won't. and african americans would have supported hillary. angry ones would not vote mccain, if anything they would stay home. but hillary has the support of maya angelou and many other influential african americans. Hillary could get it. Obama is not going to get the white working class. not because he is black but because he is too far to the left

[greg2009]

Yes Hillary could get swing votes because she is a centrist. I'm not arguing that Obama can win swing votes. I was talking about Dems can't win the SWING states without black support. If the swing votes had a mix of new voters, young voters, and minorities then Obama could win those. People aren't as scared of the "ultra-liberal" label anymore.The Reagan Democrats are fading out because people are more suburban and not as fixated in small industrial towns where the Reagan Dems came.

[greg2009]

This election is going to come down to who can win the suburbs. The suburbs is the new battleground, not Reagan Democrats in industrial small/medium towns. People in the suburb is a great place for Obama and McCain. The suburbs are more diverse, more focused on school choice, more for gun control, has many married couples with kids, and are more middle class. This place is neither mostly Democrat or mostly Republican. It is divided

[bleunt]

America's voting system is wacky. :(

[dingorex]

Congrats on your wedding Josh.

[everthustotyrants]

comrade obama or juan mccain....that's like choosing between gambino's or gotti's

[funkyyow]

Most of us always make mistakes and thats why Bush is in the office twice and still most of us think that Mccain is a better choice.

Wake up! Is he inspiring? Is he our hope?

Im voting for Obama simply because Obama is a better choice.

[sugarpuddin88]

McShame: Ole' Blinkie!

Never trust a man who can't stop blinking!

Rust Belt: Backwoods hillbilly's that are like concrete: All mixed up and permanently set!

Eastern Kentucky has a 40% incidence of no running water among its population

Forget Florida - It's voting is rigged

[Kevron76]

youre a tool!

[hippieCy08]

people do not vote on 'issues' or 'good judgment'. Americans only vote on 'values' perceived by their candidate or opponents. So this whole argument of we want 'real issues' not smear campaign is B.S. We want the best fighting dog to get into the Whitehouse.

Obama is no Dukakis and if he can defeat the best political operating machine in our modern history, aka the Clintons....he can swim in the dirt with Republicans and their usual fear-mongering tactics. Outsmart the masters @ their own game.

[oldtownkid]

I was just browsing through articles published from jul'88- Oct'88, and that race began with Dukakis leading G.H.Bush by double digits, and smear tactics, name calling, twisting facts, Willie Horton adds, all of those things in a period of 5 months, made Dukakis look like a baby lookin' for his mommy. Problem, according to most articles, Dukakis did not fight back. He relied on the judgement of our people, and our people judged based on stupid tv adds.

[oldtownkid]

Polls reflect today opinions and people's opinions change, and they could change dramatically in favor or McCain with the help of negative campagining. Republicans have been sticking labels on Democrats and it's always worked. Obama better fight back quick because most Americans make up their mind about Politicians from thouse 30 second adds and smear tactics. Dukakis, Gore, and Kerry would have been much better presidents, but that was not enough.

Obama/Webb 2008/2012

[the2006rookie]

Bush/Cheny/2008

[paddedshell]

So, rookie, is that your vote for Martial Law or for John McSame-Old-BullShit?

[the2006rookie]

As a matter of fact I don't trust McCain because he is a wolf in sheeps clothing, A lib in Rubublicans clothing. But I'll tell you that I don't trust Obama even more. You see I still have faith in the American people and I believe that they will wake up and see Obama for the Socialist S.O.B. he is and vote against him. And you will realize how right I am when you see that our Constitution has been Abolished.

[jjoshaugh]

Your good old boy bush has done more to subvert your constitution than any other administration ever.

[TheWorldPerPete]

November is a long ways off...this is pointless.

[foxxx2001]

You forgot to mention Media bashing of Obama while praising McCain, Diebold and Jed Bush(FL)

[bobbooty]

Thank you so much for these videos. Your analysis is far more reasonable and detailed than any news cast. Keep it up.

[GrownupPhan]

This is encouraging, but I would take all polls for this whole contest with a big grain of salt. There are way too many factors that are unpredictable, starting with who should be considered "likely voters." That's the fundamental, bedrock decision in constructing a sampling plan in political polling. If anyone is honest, none of them have a clue how to do it this time around.

[fettaspetta]

Lieberman was the VP pick in 2000.

And the Dems have only been in the majority for the last 2 years.

[mexcurmudgeon]

Actually, your closing quote is from the song "Crazy" by Seal. Just FYI.

[BJBlitzstein]

Thanks again TPM crew. Can you do a video on Vera Cifier?

[iamafractal]

Josh,

now go look at the charts over at fivethirtyeight..com, which are even more interesting.

[pseudolover]

does anyone know of any sites that Targets specific reporters like Chris Matthews, Stephanopolous (sp), as well as the Fox people and magazines. We need to dig up some dirt on them to delegitimize their opinions. I don't know how to make videos but I really hope someone will.

[PappyRoo]

It's spelled Steponallofus.

[jthomp3120]

cloppered?

[voyzovrezon]

What's the matter with Ohio? Pennsylvania is a blue state, so why isn't Ohio? Geez people, think about it. McSame??

[ls1z28chris]

Pretty good analysis.

[2004JETTA]

great vid cant wait til next week

[Richardgwm]

100 years in Iraq.

George W McCain has promised to keep American troops in Iraq for 100 years.

100 years in Iraq.

[dennisthapa]

good stuff TPM!

[ltlillil]

John McCain has said when it comes time to take care of Iran, he will put on his flight suit, strap himself in the cockpit, and personally fly over Tehran to drop the big one.

[tillo2008]

yeah right... i'll believe it when I see it :P

Until America has a truly informed and half-intelligent general population, the politicians will continue to get away with gestures. well intentioned gestures, but gestures all the same.

[JoeFelice]

Great update, but you can be bolder in your conclusion! We now know the claim that McCain would just scoop those states up without a fight was both wrong, and it's even tilting toward the opposite result.

Of course McCain could take the lead back, but the people who said Obama can't even be COMPETITIVE in OH/PA/FL should lose their electoral handicapping merit badges.

[sharshur]

Your green is much better than McCain's green.

[HaloedG]

Hopefully, the "working class" aka poor white people will realize that the rich white McCain is not after their interests just because he has the same color skin as them.

[mayaluvsmusic]

What are the interests of "poor white people"?

[Plecter]

Mayaluvsmusic

More jobs, less wars.

More taxes for the rich, less taxes for the poor.

Freedom, Democracy and peace.

None of which McCain support or practice respectably.

[HaloedG]

To no longer be poor. Voting for a rich White man ain't gonna do it, though. McCain is more likely to send the poor White family's sons overseas to fight wars, ignore public health and social programs to improve their lives, better education for knowledge of the world around them and enhance the racial divide that feeds into racism in this country. Some poor Whites think a Black president is gonna hole them all up in concentration camps and make them learn Islam...its ignorance.

[itfigures]

nascar.

[Teenom]

Greeeen with envy about your new background... Cant wait!

[foley15136]

Obama got the Colbert bump

[makeyanoticeme]

I'm moving to Florida in a few weeks and I am going to register to vote ASAP and work very hard to campaign and get the word out about Obama.

Thanks for this EXTREMELY comprehensive evaluation of the polls. Great job.