A STRATFOR Conversation: George Friedman and Special Guest Robert Kaplan

[silicoaluminate]

how do u compare a US sub and ch sub? it's like comparing caddic and cherry

[svenrsr]

I don't agree with George that just Japan and not China is the major power in the East. If you take the big perspective, just two civilizations have been superpowers for most of the time in the last two millennia: the Graeco-Roman-Christian civilization and China. - with India already trailing quite behind those.

China has sufficient cultural and manpower resources to reach that superpower status again, after last centuries' setback. A typical setback happening every few centuries.

[jiboou]

Things that should be taught in 21st century schools.

[pangpingw]

kaplan seems to have not spoken to chinese about what chinese really think - too bullish. friedman seems more neutral

[stalkingalizee]

Chinese submarines are so noisy they can be tracked in the 1st convergence (25km+). Their submarine fleet is undermanned, untrained and lacks adequate maintenance routines. Chinese ASW is practically non-existent. US SSNs could shut down Chinese shipping with little effort.

[202cStGB]

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[gellertmag]

I respect Mr Friedman, I read his books nest 100 years and next 10 year,both great work, what ı dont agree is that china is a big world power,its the country that buid great china wall thousand year ago, its developing so fast,look at the fast trains,look at the modern cities,washington looks like a village compared with beijing,I dont agree with mr friedman,nobody can predict for 20-30 years....

[chan00chap]

HACKED and bagged

[aaveragejoe]

Friedman still seems to think "bigger is better" in terms of warfare and conflict. The Chinese do not think this way. Understand that its diplomatic and strategic moves are subtle, much more so than American strategists.

And sea denial, Mr. Friedman, requires only the threat of a single sea mine to deny an entire carrier battle group.

[matchbox555]

friedman hates china and engages in wishful thinking

kaplan is far more realistic

[nadeemstine]

@matchbox555 lol....Even this fucking Youtube website is running on Chinese..I bet!

[TacticusPrime]

A war with China over control of seas adjacent to their sovereign territory would be IDIOTIC. American national interests do not require that we master every fucking ocean on Earth. Domination of the Pacific between Guam and California, and of the Atlantic west of Madeira is more than enough to ensure America's security. It's ridiculously arrogant to pretend that America's outsized strength entitles it to global empire. There's a difference between leadership and suzerainty.

[billyboy8888]

bigger than the US navy? wtf? what are they smoking?

[lolitinhasoares]

Besides, if China was as Friedman said, very dependent on exports, what about the USA, which is dependent of loans from the Chinese, earned through their exports?

[TheDualEconomist]

@lolitinhasoares America has 300 trillion in assets it can tax. The debt problem is purely political. It can be solved at any moment. The people or the government just have to put their foot down.

It's actually one of the biggest non-issues I've ever heard of.

[lolitinhasoares]

I disagree with Friedman, the export-led strategy of China is not a permanent pattern, but a phase, other countries have gone through the same process. As income rises, the Chinese economy will be ever more reliant in the internal market, just watch bloomberg to see the latest investment strategies for China, it is shifting from the export sector to sector related to the internal market, services, for example.

[udical]

@lolitinhasoares they can t expand domestic market without more political power to consumers and entrepreneurship. they expanded so far because they were free from hunting for any kind of capital so far. but they are now in maximum of this kind of low rights concept

[lolitinhasoares]

@udical the internal market is already expanded due to the raised income generated by exports, this will be translated in the services sector, the political arrangements in China is a different matter.

[udical]

@lolitinhasoares no it s not different, there are no expanded market without expanded individual political rights

[lolitinhasoares]

@udical you are taking the stance based on the liberal myth, which is just a myth. During most of history, free markets lived along authoritarian regimes, including in the western countries.

[lolitinhasoares]

@udical besides, the services sector is more decentralized. Deng Xiaoping said China would be a democracy by 2050, lets see, that would make the 21th century the chinese century.

[udical]

@lolitinhasoares well democracies does not exist in way we think of it, today democracy means u have informed spectators who look at every step of procedure of bringing decisions, but of course those individuals do not and can not change decisions made by oligarchy, that is today's democracy.... difference is only how many rights are transfer d toward individuals to be protected on courts, today china s municipals have level of rights like us individuals but in both cases oligarchy decide

[melnick1985]

This is absurd, talking about controlling the waterway. Do they really think two major nuclear powers are ever going to attack each other? Future wars are all asymmetric.

[elicitwildly]

Genius.

[mphet26]

1:38... Russia so small today(((( shit how could we lose cold war. I need a revenge!

[PeoplesWar]

Now THIS is a debate!!!

[TOTCD]

Very interesting discussion

[andrewMLhero]

Holy fuck his ears are big.

[mcmh1988]

More of these please. More Kaplan and more Friedman. The other STRATFOR videos are waaaaay too short. Roundtables, roundtables, roundtables!

[Antiks72]

Two Jewish neocons?

[Kaxcer]

I aggre with Robert Kaplan more then with Goerge Friedman.

[6gatornation]

I like the table talk with the map. You should do more of these.

[nadeemstine]

@6gatornation

lol! IF YOU CANNOT BEAT THEM JOIN THEM!

[manofsan]

I love these discussions between the mental heavyweights. Please keep up the good work, Stratfor!

[marcdaddy33]

great conversation. very intelligent men.

[nadeemstine]

@marcdaddy33 They hardly know about the Indian Subcontinent. They gotta have more lessons on geography...

[Slavko961234]

Japan will not rise again. The total fertility rate is too low to sustain civilization.

[thekingofROFL]

@Slavko961234

Same thing with Russia, tough both will have some sort of growth before there low fertility rate becomes there undoing.

[atemlos2585]

Friedman's knowledge is impressive.

[rstora01]

The 2nd error that George Friedman and Robert Kaplan make in their thinking is conventional conflict. A future major global conflict will be nuclear. Communist military doctrine has a difference logic to war. The Soviet era weapons were design to fight on a nuclear battlefield. We have seen how Soviet era weapons fare on the modern conventional battlefield. But high tech is the 1st to go down on the nuclear battleground. Then one has a more level playing field. And everything changes.

[DiNatalli]

America will look like Brazil in 100 years. The smartest most productive people are dying out and the lazy, violent, freeloaders are multiplying.

[M0nkeyDropP0d]

id love to watch the next one on japan hope its soon

[MrCarlosBrazao]

really good discussion, and it lets your head thinking... eve though i agree with Friedman: Japan will be the big threat to the US and its allies in about 30 years or less. Countries that grow this much like China in so little time usually tend to crash eventually.

[Itchhhh]

I so enjoyed this!  I hope to see more tableside chats such as this.

[edinhenrik]

Is this what you get when you become a stratfor member, because in that case I want it. This was interesting. Thank you!

[danielrg2112]

@edinhenrik

Yes, I'm a member and this is the level of analysis George provides. This is the first time I've seen a 30 minute discussion, but it is exactly the sort of thing that goes on behind the scenes from what I understand at Stratfor.

I advise you sign up for the free week and check it out. Sign up for the free weekly mails. Then watch your mail for discount offers.

[uru86]

I find it hard to believe that in the discussion regarding the economy, China's massive FOREX reserves were not discussed. Also, the leverage China has over the US as its primary lender, and creditor. I think a bit of American hubris was at play here.

[atemlos2585]

@uru86 Maybe, but mind a fact that this leverage you speak of over US can not be really used. China is extremely dependent with US, they have no power to call their debts, by hurting US in any way their hurting themselves twice much.

[jrm21386]

@uru86 I think you're overstating the importance of foreign exchange reserves. Foreign exchange reserves do not matter when you (the United States) issue the global reserve currency. China can accumulate as many foreign exchange reserves as it likes, it's not really going to influence US policy all that much.

[rstora01]

I think the error that both speakers make is the basic premise of China against the US. It most likely will be an alliance of nations against the US.

[atemlos2585]

@rstora01 Yes, but it is very likely that China will stay somewhat independent from other competing countries against US, like for example Turkey and Russia. China will be also standing as a competitor to those countries.

[rstora01]

@atemlos2585 Not certain where you get your info. But Russia and China are members of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization (SCO) I consider that an alliance. There are also energy agreements, military cooperation and common mistrust of the west.

[atemlos2585]

@rstora01 It's very unlikely that two countries which have superpower tendencies could stay as an alliances. Those points you made are of course true and valid, but extend of those cooperations are not that significant as they sound. There are many such cooperations between Europeans countries made just out of necessity or mutual benefit, not necessarily against something. Trade organizations, energy, etc., which countries participating in as a part of just doing business.

[atemlos2585]

@rstora01 Russia and China are competing as was stated in the discussion and will compete in future for influences in neighbouring countries which their share, like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and so forth.

[TOTCD]

@rstora01 Not entirely true.

The US already has allies in that region.

South Korea, Australia and Japan.

So you have to weigh different countries seperately.

[mphet26]

@TOTCD Japan, S. Korea not allies of US... those countries was occupied by US Army. Allied policy will come to end when US army will go home. And then you'll see how allied Japan.

[TOTCD]

@mphet26 South Korea occupied by the US?

Please read some books about the korean war

[mphet26]

@TOTCD ohh yeah! sorry forget... US is not occupy countries and not killed the people! US bring democracy to them! thats what i need to read in american books?

[TOTCD]

@mphet26 Who said anything about american books?

Read about the korean war. Koreans wanted the US to help them out.

you anti-US people aren even trying to change history.

[mphet26]

@TOTCD have nothing against US and i know a lot of people in US with which we are friends.

I do not agree with terroristic policy of US government and as i see what happen now on the street of US the same reactions on government's policy at all people of US.

[TOTCD]

@mphet26 Okay weird you say terrorist policy.

When countries actually ask the US to be more militarily involved in their region.

Like Australia recently. And those protests don't really speak volumes about the US itself.

It's opponents of capitalism who go out on the street and march.

There have always been opponents of capitalism but in times of high unemployment people

start being hostile. And those protests are kind of small.

Nowhere near 100 K

[mphet26]

@TOTCD Do you really believe in fact that Australia ask US about military bases on their lands))) Such words just political announcement.

[TOTCD]

@mphet26 the australians have been asking the US to have a base in Australia for years.

They want the US as protection if they were to be attacked.

It's not political. Australians asked the US to re-engage in the Pacific for a while now.

[nadeemstine]

@TOTCD Who lives in Brisbane? Newly arrived British?