How do you stay confident with your self without sharing how you feel at work? When your employer ask you to make everyone around you to get up to speed what do you do or say to keep from saying something smartass? I fell it is dumb when my supervisor askes me to carry my teamates work when they are having a bad day.
I got fired for being overconfident. Why should I get fired for being the best? If I was not doing well I would have understood but I was let go for not giving good moral to my co-workers for not being a team player WTF. Why is it when i'm paid at a low price why is it my job to do the supervisors job. I feel that it is hard enough to keep up with fast work why should I have to push and carry everyoneelse.
Over confidence is not entirely good for someone, it also has negatives. You qualify very easily to be ignorant.
I think the best way a person can be is being humble. Respecting one's opinion and then having your turn to say something. Pause and just stay cool. Then again not ever personality trait attracts everyone. Everyone has a different personality and every type of personality is always offended by another.
Shut up with your dumb, psycho babbel bullshit allready! I can see why you're not overconfident, however don't bother people who are. You just sound like a dumb bitch. Shut up.
Well, Marie, in your case, the question was rhetorical!
Believe it or not, some people actually ARE overconfident...in fact, over the last, oh, 20 years or so, you and I have seen plenty of them! Merry Christmas!
very interesting. Wow, a leo as mediator (council) and as a psychologist. Aren´t you an untypical leo?
back to your topic: Last time I realized that I was overconfident was when I started to play poker on an international level (and underrated the other players)....
Fascinating topic. Self direction is something I continually find needing outside coaching help--then the hard thing becomes finding the right coach, yet so vital for so many reasons. The road to true reality seems paved with a lot of painful self admittance.
No question about it: self-direction is a continuing challenge for many of us. It sounds like you've found a method for helping yourself, through coaching, which is more than half the battle. Good luck.
Great video. I really look forward to your topical reflections, especially when they help us learn more about ourselves and how we relate to the world.
This is so eerily true.. the over-confidence part, at this very moment for us out here in the San Diego area.. Where I am we've not yet been too affected.. and most are pretty.., yess, "confident" that we are safe from any real harm. Well, isn't that what A LOT of the poor people who lost everything thought at one time ?? .. I'm still not totally convinced we're that safe from harm.. I'm mentally staying ready for anything!!:-}
Thanks AGAIN, especially now, for this, Tom! Take care, Anni:)
Well, Anni...the background is a close up of a hammered metal sculpture. And that picture at 2:37 is just one I found when I googled around to find images of overconfidence! Cute kid, though! Thanks!
The overwhelming undertaking of catching up on alllll your videos is becoming prett-ty daunt-ting!! HAHAHA ..what with all your multi-faceted and absorbing features I have to keep coming BACK to again and again.. why, I may NEVer find my way through them all! LOL x)) ~Thank you dear Tom
golly, i did it againnn? i'll have to work on being gruffer, and more critical! GRRRR! }:-{} .. how' z'at?! ;)
Wait! I DO get that way.. sommetiimes.. I willy-willy dOO! ..Ah, BUT, you're just an exceptionallly fascinating fellow, and I've YET to go away uninspired! ~See ya in your library;-)
Well, I certainly didn't mean my remark as a rebuke, more, simply as a manner of recognizing the welcome support that your words bring. Very glad that you find my work interesting. Many thanks, Anni.
HAHAHAHA~ I knoww, I knoww you didn't, hehe.. I just love these conversations with you! I was away too long, and I've been missing thenm..them lately! Like being in that library of yours with you;)) ..*yours..your's.. hmm*
Just playing off of artemis's comment. Yeah, I think a lot of people suffer from social phobia. My cousin wasn't that shy in most situations, but he couldn't give presentations in front of large groups. He was voted "shyest" in his high school because of it.
hehe, I'll bet from this that SOMEone will be at least 90% confident enough to post their probably 90% accurate estimation of the height of Mt. Everest! hahaha;)
Overconfidence is not only context dependent, but maybe culture dependent as well?
In Asian philosophy they have a saying that goes something like "understand yourself and the enemy you will win many battles before it has even begun." This can make them second guess themselves. But many of the Western society on average seems to act first and think later.
Yes, culture is context writ large. We have a very different point of view on confidence in the West. We try to groom it; other cultures believe it unseemly. Second guessing has gotten such a bad name in the West that almost any reflection at all is questioned. Thanks.
as to the video, it was interesting to watch; I like the background too btw. I'd have to read about the different levels more but I like how you explained everything and the driving example. Yeah a lot of people are very confident about driving.
i'm probably on the other extreme, i'm underconfident (-: If we just take my videos for example, I'm only fully satisfied with 5% of them(out of 98 videos) and those are the ones which probably get the least views. I want people to rip them apart and to critisize me but all I get is positive feedback. Maybe I'm a bit confident in the way I deal with negative feedback (I usually distance myself a lot from feedback in both positive and negative cases)
Tom - would you be able to make a video about how social anxiety affects people in the workforce? I know a few people in the corporate world that are viewed as "not being as sharp" due to their SA. I'd love to hear your thoughts about this.
3 types of overconfidence? There are hundreds of types of cognitive bias related to overestimating the ability to: characterize people; identify correlations (illusory correlation); explain how things work (illusion of explanatory depth); solve problems; arrive somewhere on time; to predict the future (especially retroactively)...
...also, awareness of such bias is typically inefficient as a debiasing technique, meaning that people who watch your video will persist in making overconfidence errors. There is not one source of the bias, but many: inability to understand probability, memory shortcomings, chronic and severe egotism that biases perception and decision-making, unavailability of knowledge about the skills of others, cognitive dissonance about accepting negative self-evaluations, and so on.
Awareness of bias is a start; imo, necessary but not sufficient to change this kind of behavior. Becoming more fine-grained in understanding the subtleties you describe is the result of further reflection. Thanks.
And you're saying that those examples can't be placed into the three categories from the psychological literature? Well, if not, there's an opportunity to add to that work because what I cited is the current way of understanding the phenomenon.
When you asked the question how tall is mount everest. I just guessed about 15,000 feet and in my mind I was pretty sure. I was overconfident, it was 29,029. But, I get what you're saying. Because when I'm having conversations with friends and we are talking about a specific topic, all of us are usually always WAY overconfident in our knowledge about the subject. Also, a lot of that is ID and perception and mostly ego for males anyway.
Fantastic video. UpDownMostly's response brought us here and we have now subscribed. Thank you for your insight. Look forward to getting to know you more!
Wow. That was great. Did you get inside my head to come up with this subject matter? Generally, the older I get, the more my confidence level matches my ability. When younger, I overestimated & my confidence exceeded my capability.
I do. You can subscribe to it from my blog page which you can find on my company website truetalknow dot com. Since I've been on YouTube, however, I've made my videos my video podcasts rather than recording original material strictly for audio.
I wonder if there is neuro-scientific or other physiological/anatomical/chemical reasons for this? Maybe with respect to adrenaline and other hormonal responses?
Ah, I'm not a chemist (or physicist, if you want to take the reductionism farther), so I leave these things to others. I'm a behavioral observer; at that level, things make sense to me.
I guess there is 'being accurate' with anything (self-perception, etc) and then there is a series of 'overs' which create the false perceptions (over-confidence, over-compensation) which is probably synonymous or indicative of the critiques such as 'narcissism' and the 'overs'.
The influence of the "overs" on the perceptions is also a key issue. Systems react holistically, so overconfidence typically leads to distorted perceptions as well as unrealistic estimates of ability.
Well, I think that is a true statement. I guess your advice, which I agree with, is syntonous with Aristotle "everything in moderation, including moderation"
Although you did say 90% certainty, so there's a 10% chance I could be wrong. In this case I was. One could therefore argue that the fact I was wrong was simply part of that 10%. If you had asked for 100% certainty I'm sure my numbers would have been different.
So what's the diagnosis? Am I overconfident? Narcisstic? After all I seem to be arguing here "Yeah maybe I was wrong, but I'm still right!" :P
Overly precise would be my guess. Narcissistic is a whole other matter. Although that, "I was wrong but I was still right..." line starts to move the bubble a little!
Turns out it's higher than I thought. I knew it was about 5 miles high, which I estimated was about 26,000 feet, but I figured with 90% certainty I might be off by as much as 2,000 feet. Turns out it's altitude is actually 29,017 feet, which is closer to being five and a half miles high.
Hi Tom - while I recognize what you are saying, my personal opinion is that there are way too many people who are more valuable than they estimate or promote - i.e. under-confidence. It's a fabulously interesting and beneficial thing to study, and I'm one for (in most but not all situations) "Faking it 'till you make it" - to "fool" the brain to begin producing positive results and characteristics
Yes, that's the zeitgeist Steve. For me it's all a matter of the when/when not...one of the dodgiest issues any of us has to face because we buy into the fictionalism of the unitary self. This means, "if you're smart, you're smart." Well, that's nonsense. If you're smart, you're smart about some things and dumb as a rock about others. Thanks.
Sounds like a recognition of the demands of a situation. If overconfident you'd be more likely to think you could handle things without having to push yourself. Thanks.
The people around me say I am cautious for my overconfidence when I don't have to be, they are more confident in my performance than I am myself, or at least than I tell _them_ I am. Because I'd say I'm pretty confident, but I'm cautious not to take on an assignment that I can't handle because of it, and they feel I shouldn't be worried about that.
I'm not, but again, I'm cautious to be overconfident in these situations (the circle is round)
In the end, would that be over- or underconfidence?
In the end, to me, it sounds like wisdom. I'd say you have a pretty solid handle on what you can and can't do. The biggest challenge to any of us is trying to find out what it is we DON'T KNOW about a situation. That's usually what gets us. If we're smart, we realize there's something and try to figure out what it is before it bites us in the butt. thanks.
Sometimes I think I am the "Poster Child" for overconfidence. A Police Captain approached me one day when I was implementing the first NCIC system (which was not my regular duties) at the department, and said, "You remind me of a little boy doing you know what in the snow. A dabble here and a dabble there. But he always came to me when he needed help, and to this day tells people how I obtained information for him that he didn't think possible.
Overconfidence made me go in all kinds of directions. I wish all my efforts were directed in something like automotive mechanics. Then I would be "Pimping Rides" rather than watching and replying to another excellent video which I have already watched 3 times. :) Thanks, Tom
The idea of you "pimpin' rides" (wearing your renetto shoes, of course!) absofrackin'lutely cracks me up, Frank! Many thanks for the kind words and great comments.
These things become more interesting as they become subtler. For instance, what's the difference between "overconfidence" and "courage"? Well...some might say courage = overconfidence + luck. Others might say it = overconfidence + faith. Still others: = preparation + opportunity. Subtle but worth thinking about, imo.
In my field(IT)...you absolutely HAVE to sell yourself. A little overconfidence can be a good thing as it will keep you on your toes and keep others expecting good things from you. Too much confidence will make you either look like a prick or a fool or usually both.
We have overconfidence because has humans we want to be loved liked (IE) look how great i am. People want to be right in front of others. I find that more of society lack confidence rather than have over confidence. I always like to point out that to act confident is the same as being confident there is no difference. I know this last sentence has nothing to do with you video but i just needed to say it it makes me feel esteemed :-)
The key is in the when/when not of confidence. As for acting like one is confident, this is a very interesting factor. In philosophy it's known as the "as if"; acting as if one feels or believes a certain thing often brings that thing to life. Professional actors use this all the time. As for confidence and love, that's for another video. Thanks.
Praise can work on a number of levels when it is merited, but if it isn't merited then it's hollow and the recipient of that praise will normally know this deep down. It's the realisation that said praise is perhaps overblown which helps self confidence as we begin to realise our limitations as well as our capacity to improve.
Am I overconfident? Sometimes, I've learned to start underestimating. If you underestimate, you can't get arrogant. :) Though I also can't underestimate too much... tis a fun challenge :)
It is the key challenge. Knowing when/when not to be confident, or, more accurately, to know how confident to be and to adjust strategy accordingly. Thanks.
Praise works if it's directed and specific. An empty compliment like you're great is not specific enough. You're good with people, or you're a good listener is a more directed compliment.
I wonder how commenters contribute to videomakers' confidence. Seems either they try to kill a person's confidence or induce them to overconfidence with overstated praise. In the end, I hope most people are happy making videos for their own enjoyment, regardless of how they are received.
I can sure understand you being wary of your surroundings after what happened, Alan. Give yourself a minute to catch your breath. You'll know when you're ready to take the next step.
Well, Bryony, we know that overconfidence is unlikely to be your problem! On the contrary, you seem to have a hard time stepping back and objectively evaluating your accomplishments. But, overall, you're doing great! Keep doin' what you're doin'!
It's a paradox, isn't it? We are so focused on positive thinking that we want to stamp out any doubt. I'm suggesting that reflection about typical style is a very valuable exercise.
The jobless comments depress me. My son just got back into his field of video journalism which he loves. He had been so over-confident of his abilities that he refused to try another field of work after being unemployed for over a year. His new employers are giving him good feedback but I think he needs some good luck to go with it.
That's a 2x2 matrix of confidence/performance that we've all seen, Joe. Well put. And your assessment of people who reside in those quadrants is very, very common. Thanks.
I'm underconfident in all three areas with fair consistency. The reasons are varied and extend many years back. One reason though is that I tend to be more deeply affected by my failures than my accomplishments, which is part of a feedback loop because being too hesitant and indecisive is in itself a type of failure. Consequently, I gravitate toward activities in which failure is subjective and inconsequential. e.g. I don't climb mountains, I vlog.
Working with overconfident people really makes me want to fail at climbing a steep rock face. They just create work for everyone else and become tiresome. But they do help us to appreciate happy and practical people a lot more.
Diminishing accomplishments and overvaluing failures is not a great recipe for success, PSM. The impact is just what you describe: lowering expectations. Gradually developing risk-tolerance is one way to address that situation. Putting yourself in precarious positions? Why do that unless you feel ready.
Your points are well-taken Tom and I appreciate the note of caution. A relevant point and one that requires me to focus heavily on emphasizing what I've done well is that I'm currently looking for a job. I know from my own patterns of behavior that we must be positive and work to achieve things we don't necessarily feel ready to achieve. Positive thinking really does yield good results and affects those around us. I'll continue to fight my demons and be positive! Thanks as always Tom :)
great topic Tom! I'd love to be able to instantly know where I'm overconfident, but I guess its a process whereby I'll have to take a long hard look at myself in order to find out. I'm quite confident in most things I do, but quite possibly its too much. I've crashed and burned a few times, and I think overconfidence has something to do with it
Tom's insights are a win-win. Positive exposure is always good, and we learn something we would not have otherwise learned, even if that's just the result of asking questions of ourselves we might not have asked without such thoughts being provoked (or invoked, for those subconscious thoughts that never bubbled to the surface previously).
When I was working, I used to think that I could never lose. I KNEW that I might not win immediately, but over time, I would not lose. I FELT successful; I produced successfully; I negoticated successfully; I succeeded in win/win; I had tangible evidence that I was successful. I had what I thought was confidence, which, with reflection, I realize may have been cocky overconfidence. - roc
Then, when I lost my job a year ago and I began to put together a CV (or resume), I found I had zero skill sets. I had nothing that anyone wanted or would want. I could produce nothing of value. I couldn't describe one thing I could do with any conficence. After so many years of seeing clear results and after really making a difference, I felt I had nothing. - roc
So, I am not "overconfident" any more. I remain jobless, and my confidence has dwindled. Is confidence related to positive activity? To the visual satisfaction of accomplishment? Plus, I think there is the issue of ageism - I am now too old for a vibrant, exciting workplace. Perhaps I should rediscover my confidence by volunteering.... Okay. I rambled enough. - roc
Whenever we stumble our confidence gets shaken. Volunteering might help you get back on stride. The more successful interactions we have the better we feel about the next one...it's about momentum. And stop with the "too old" nonsense! Go watch one of geriatric1927's videos for inspiration.
My suggestion is to drop way back and re-think what you've learned about yourself over the years. It's silly to say you have zero skills after having been successful over a long career. Start with how you got those results, those win/wins you describe above. Talk to friends about what they've seen you do well. Don't keep spinning your wheels; change gears.
Hey, I have ALL three types. At least, I'm pretty sure I do....... at least I did until I started thinking about what you said....... but now I just don't know! Did you make this video to mess with my head? lol
He already wrote a song about all of us. You'll have to move for Peri to write a good song about you! He is in his creative evoking emotion stage right now! But I love him anyway! lol
I think praising along with pointing in the right direction (read:criticism) is the best tool there is. But not everybody's Dale Carnegie smooth if you know what I'm saying. It also depends on the person. I think there's a lot less people that will be motivated if you outright criticise them, but then again there's also the inner motivation factor here at play.. if a person's not interested you can't really teach him anything no matter how Dale Carnegie smooth you are.
Your estimation on the height of Mt Everest was actually VERY close. 29,029 ft
yserrant 8 months ago
How do you stay confident with your self without sharing how you feel at work? When your employer ask you to make everyone around you to get up to speed what do you do or say to keep from saying something smartass? I fell it is dumb when my supervisor askes me to carry my teamates work when they are having a bad day.
carnypimp 1 year ago
I got fired for being overconfident. Why should I get fired for being the best? If I was not doing well I would have understood but I was let go for not giving good moral to my co-workers for not being a team player WTF. Why is it when i'm paid at a low price why is it my job to do the supervisors job. I feel that it is hard enough to keep up with fast work why should I have to push and carry everyoneelse.
carnypimp 1 year ago
Over confidence is not entirely good for someone, it also has negatives. You qualify very easily to be ignorant.
I think the best way a person can be is being humble. Respecting one's opinion and then having your turn to say something. Pause and just stay cool. Then again not ever personality trait attracts everyone. Everyone has a different personality and every type of personality is always offended by another.
braziliannegro 2 years ago
Shut up with your dumb, psycho babbel bullshit allready! I can see why you're not overconfident, however don't bother people who are. You just sound like a dumb bitch. Shut up.
piskekvist 2 years ago
@piskekvist Do you realise..... how you sound ?
oklapi 1 year ago
im over confident sometimes.
AwsomeCuban 3 years ago
How sad.
tlg847 4 years ago
lol, nice nomal distribution graph, i betting thats the 3 Standard deviations from the mean? 68.7, 95, 99
p4psm3re 4 years ago
Comment removed
aslanatlastang 4 years ago
Am I overconfident? You kill me Tom!
marieRao57 4 years ago
Well, Marie, in your case, the question was rhetorical!
Believe it or not, some people actually ARE overconfident...in fact, over the last, oh, 20 years or so, you and I have seen plenty of them! Merry Christmas!
tlg847 4 years ago
My overconfident situations:
1. Most situations and subjects when I'm drunk.
2. I assume that if the idiot is smack-talking and provoking me, I can "take him"... especially if he is taller and/ or younger than me.
3. I assume new people that I meet are dumber than me, especially if they are younger.
That80sGuy1972 4 years ago
Let's talk remedies:
1) after three drinks, shut up!
2) make sure "the idiot" really is an idiot before smackin' back
3) oh, that one's a problem...especially as you get older...how 'bout giving each new person a test of some kind before you get too carried away
Good luck and Happy Holidays!
tlg847 4 years ago
Great advice, cat. Thanx.
You have a happy... er... whatever you celebrate. :)
That80sGuy1972 4 years ago
Welcome.
Same to you!
tlg847 4 years ago
I'm confident that I do not suffer from any kind of overconfidence. :P
Great vlog. I really enjoyed it and learned something quite practical.
NaturalTwentyFilms 4 years ago
im glad MT everest is not my employer
RIPPPtheJacker 4 years ago
Here's an easy way:
Guess between 1 ft and 9,999,999 ft.
SomethingSea 4 years ago
i'm honestly going to go insane if you don't put up another video
ahardy5891 4 years ago
OK, well, I absolutely cannot live with something like that on my conscience...stay tuned!
tlg847 4 years ago
this vid was a reply to dandcvideos dont worry he is cool with me just check out why i replied your friend tlwc
THELONEWEBCRUSADER 4 years ago
very interesting. Wow, a leo as mediator (council) and as a psychologist. Aren´t you an untypical leo?
back to your topic: Last time I realized that I was overconfident was when I started to play poker on an international level (and underrated the other players)....
ogier1 4 years ago
I guess I am unusual...actually, I think I've always known that!
Overconfidence at the international level poker table...that can be expensive!
Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
funny question since your a fiery Leo
guitaoist 4 years ago
Well, we "fiery Leos" are probably more prone to this trap than most, so, I think I know whereof I speak! Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Fascinating topic. Self direction is something I continually find needing outside coaching help--then the hard thing becomes finding the right coach, yet so vital for so many reasons. The road to true reality seems paved with a lot of painful self admittance.
Rhemasonador 4 years ago
No question about it: self-direction is a continuing challenge for many of us. It sounds like you've found a method for helping yourself, through coaching, which is more than half the battle. Good luck.
tlg847 4 years ago
Great video. I really look forward to your topical reflections, especially when they help us learn more about ourselves and how we relate to the world.
Ringollo 4 years ago
Sorry to take so long to get back to you on this comment. I appreciate the compliments very much. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Hey Tom:
Are you going to do a video on Social Phobia?
zimbobwet 4 years ago
Sorry to take so long to respond. That video is on my list...I'll try to get to it soon. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
This is so eerily true.. the over-confidence part, at this very moment for us out here in the San Diego area.. Where I am we've not yet been too affected.. and most are pretty.., yess, "confident" that we are safe from any real harm. Well, isn't that what A LOT of the poor people who lost everything thought at one time ?? .. I'm still not totally convinced we're that safe from harm.. I'm mentally staying ready for anything!!:-}
Thanks AGAIN, especially now, for this, Tom! Take care, Anni:)
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
Well, Anni, let's hope that your confidence is well-founded in this case!
Stay safe!
t
tlg847 4 years ago
VERY interesting BACKground! A cave? ..And @ 2:37, is that a little pic of little yooou??;p
Great vid, this, Tom! 'care~ :)
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
Well, Anni...the background is a close up of a hammered metal sculpture. And that picture at 2:37 is just one I found when I googled around to find images of overconfidence! Cute kid, though! Thanks!
tlg847 4 years ago
hehehe.. I'll bet you were even cuter!;D
The overwhelming undertaking of catching up on alllll your videos is becoming prett-ty daunt-ting!! HAHAHA ..what with all your multi-faceted and absorbing features I have to keep coming BACK to again and again.. why, I may NEVer find my way through them all! LOL x)) ~Thank you dear Tom
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
As always, Anni, you are too kind. I hope you enjoy whatever you find time to watch.
;^)
tlg847 4 years ago
golly, i did it againnn? i'll have to work on being gruffer, and more critical! GRRRR! }:-{} .. how' z'at?! ;)
Wait! I DO get that way.. sommetiimes.. I willy-willy dOO! ..Ah, BUT, you're just an exceptionallly fascinating fellow, and I've YET to go away uninspired! ~See ya in your library;-)
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
Well, I certainly didn't mean my remark as a rebuke, more, simply as a manner of recognizing the welcome support that your words bring. Very glad that you find my work interesting. Many thanks, Anni.
tlg847 4 years ago
HAHAHAHA~ I knoww, I knoww you didn't, hehe.. I just love these conversations with you! I was away too long, and I've been missing thenm..them lately! Like being in that library of yours with you;)) ..*yours..your's.. hmm*
Thanks for such warm, homey visits!x)
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
"2:20 practicng your mistakes"
Like that concept.
How much does luck have to do with things?
vs. opportunity?
speedcrayzy 4 years ago
i just play it by ear
popebenadict16 4 years ago
overconfidence can be an issue for many, but I think more people struggle with underconfidence.
zimbobwet 4 years ago
Just playing off of artemis's comment. Yeah, I think a lot of people suffer from social phobia. My cousin wasn't that shy in most situations, but he couldn't give presentations in front of large groups. He was voted "shyest" in his high school because of it.
beastercall 4 years ago
High school. What a disastrous place to establish an identity! I'll definitely give some thought to a social phobia video. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Woww! .. practicing your faults.. hmmm ~I think I DO that!! I'd never heard it put that way before.
I often blurt out to myself, "Why do I ALWAYS DO "that"?!" ..reiforcing "that", that I DO! ..How does one STOP "THAT"?!
Especially thought-provoking, Counselor!:)
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
hehe, I'll bet from this that SOMEone will be at least 90% confident enough to post their probably 90% accurate estimation of the height of Mt. Everest! hahaha;)
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
Are you 90% sure of that bet?
jm2trash 4 years ago
ABSOLUTELy! ComPLETELy100% 90% SURE!xD
tubeeorrnottubee 4 years ago
lol!
jm2trash 4 years ago
Well, we all learn by practice and practicing stuff that's wrong will mean more wrong stuff! Right? Thanks!
tlg847 4 years ago
Overconfidence is not only context dependent, but maybe culture dependent as well?
In Asian philosophy they have a saying that goes something like "understand yourself and the enemy you will win many battles before it has even begun." This can make them second guess themselves. But many of the Western society on average seems to act first and think later.
ILovePaylessshoes 4 years ago
Yes, culture is context writ large. We have a very different point of view on confidence in the West. We try to groom it; other cultures believe it unseemly. Second guessing has gotten such a bad name in the West that almost any reflection at all is questioned. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
what if somebody (me lol) can't keep eye contact with real people, is that as sign of not being confident?
Annaconda1984 4 years ago
very good video, tom. i read an article on this in my local newspaper. the same concepts were covered in parents praising kids.
ThaSkOOp 4 years ago
as to the video, it was interesting to watch; I like the background too btw. I'd have to read about the different levels more but I like how you explained everything and the driving example. Yeah a lot of people are very confident about driving.
Annaconda1984 4 years ago
i'm probably on the other extreme, i'm underconfident (-: If we just take my videos for example, I'm only fully satisfied with 5% of them(out of 98 videos) and those are the ones which probably get the least views. I want people to rip them apart and to critisize me but all I get is positive feedback. Maybe I'm a bit confident in the way I deal with negative feedback (I usually distance myself a lot from feedback in both positive and negative cases)
Annaconda1984 4 years ago
Confidence is so context-dependent that your video example may, or may not, translate into a lack of confidence elsewhere. Thanks for the comments.
tlg847 4 years ago
Tom - would you be able to make a video about how social anxiety affects people in the workforce? I know a few people in the corporate world that are viewed as "not being as sharp" due to their SA. I'd love to hear your thoughts about this.
artemis138 4 years ago
I'll definitely keep that topic in mind. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Very interesting concept, that there are three types of over-confidence. I'll be on the lookout for these.
kenrg 4 years ago
I AM better than everyone else. Of this, I am confident.
Capslock17 4 years ago
3 types of overconfidence? There are hundreds of types of cognitive bias related to overestimating the ability to: characterize people; identify correlations (illusory correlation); explain how things work (illusion of explanatory depth); solve problems; arrive somewhere on time; to predict the future (especially retroactively)...
philosophydude 4 years ago
...also, awareness of such bias is typically inefficient as a debiasing technique, meaning that people who watch your video will persist in making overconfidence errors. There is not one source of the bias, but many: inability to understand probability, memory shortcomings, chronic and severe egotism that biases perception and decision-making, unavailability of knowledge about the skills of others, cognitive dissonance about accepting negative self-evaluations, and so on.
philosophydude 4 years ago
Awareness of bias is a start; imo, necessary but not sufficient to change this kind of behavior. Becoming more fine-grained in understanding the subtleties you describe is the result of further reflection. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
And you're saying that those examples can't be placed into the three categories from the psychological literature? Well, if not, there's an opportunity to add to that work because what I cited is the current way of understanding the phenomenon.
tlg847 4 years ago
When you asked the question how tall is mount everest. I just guessed about 15,000 feet and in my mind I was pretty sure. I was overconfident, it was 29,029. But, I get what you're saying. Because when I'm having conversations with friends and we are talking about a specific topic, all of us are usually always WAY overconfident in our knowledge about the subject. Also, a lot of that is ID and perception and mostly ego for males anyway.
calsonicSTi 4 years ago
Yes, ego is a very important factor in overconfidence. That may be a good topic for another video. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Fantastic video. UpDownMostly's response brought us here and we have now subscribed. Thank you for your insight. Look forward to getting to know you more!
TJsMomma 4 years ago
Thanks very much. I enjoyed Tim's response and am very happy to have you here.
tlg847 4 years ago
Fantastic, Informative Video, Tom.
Cheers,
Sam.
samelf 4 years ago
Thanks very much, Sam. Appreciate your support.
tlg847 4 years ago
I want to do a response, ran out of time, but I'm gonna do one. Great video Tom.
UpDownMostly 4 years ago
Wow. That was great. Did you get inside my head to come up with this subject matter? Generally, the older I get, the more my confidence level matches my ability. When younger, I overestimated & my confidence exceeded my capability.
breezin48 4 years ago
Do you have a podcast? I would love to listen to it if you do.
carouselqueenmi 4 years ago
I do. You can subscribe to it from my blog page which you can find on my company website truetalknow dot com. Since I've been on YouTube, however, I've made my videos my video podcasts rather than recording original material strictly for audio.
tlg847 4 years ago
I wonder if there is neuro-scientific or other physiological/anatomical/chemical reasons for this? Maybe with respect to adrenaline and other hormonal responses?
MadM3rv 4 years ago
Ah, I'm not a chemist (or physicist, if you want to take the reductionism farther), so I leave these things to others. I'm a behavioral observer; at that level, things make sense to me.
tlg847 4 years ago
I guess there is 'being accurate' with anything (self-perception, etc) and then there is a series of 'overs' which create the false perceptions (over-confidence, over-compensation) which is probably synonymous or indicative of the critiques such as 'narcissism' and the 'overs'.
MadM3rv 4 years ago
The influence of the "overs" on the perceptions is also a key issue. Systems react holistically, so overconfidence typically leads to distorted perceptions as well as unrealistic estimates of ability.
tlg847 4 years ago
Well, I think that is a true statement. I guess your advice, which I agree with, is syntonous with Aristotle "everything in moderation, including moderation"
MadM3rv 4 years ago
Which, of course, was the second admonition of the Delphic Oracle.
tlg847 4 years ago
Love the bluescreening!!
MadM3rv 4 years ago
Thanks. Sometimes I just need to do something different.
tlg847 4 years ago
Although you did say 90% certainty, so there's a 10% chance I could be wrong. In this case I was. One could therefore argue that the fact I was wrong was simply part of that 10%. If you had asked for 100% certainty I'm sure my numbers would have been different.
So what's the diagnosis? Am I overconfident? Narcisstic? After all I seem to be arguing here "Yeah maybe I was wrong, but I'm still right!" :P
TheMathGuy 4 years ago
Overly precise would be my guess. Narcissistic is a whole other matter. Although that, "I was wrong but I was still right..." line starts to move the bubble a little!
Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
porbably not...for I find myself hesitent to try and comment intelligently on this video!
talk74 4 years ago
I'm gonna say it's between 24,000 and 28,000 feet. Now let's look it up and see what it actually is...
TheMathGuy 4 years ago
29,029...see what I mean!
tlg847 4 years ago
Turns out it's higher than I thought. I knew it was about 5 miles high, which I estimated was about 26,000 feet, but I figured with 90% certainty I might be off by as much as 2,000 feet. Turns out it's altitude is actually 29,017 feet, which is closer to being five and a half miles high.
TheMathGuy 4 years ago
To be safer, I should have estimated that it was between 5 and 6 miles high. I see what you mean!
TheMathGuy 4 years ago
Hi Tom - while I recognize what you are saying, my personal opinion is that there are way too many people who are more valuable than they estimate or promote - i.e. under-confidence. It's a fabulously interesting and beneficial thing to study, and I'm one for (in most but not all situations) "Faking it 'till you make it" - to "fool" the brain to begin producing positive results and characteristics
morfeene2 4 years ago
Yes, that's the zeitgeist Steve. For me it's all a matter of the when/when not...one of the dodgiest issues any of us has to face because we buy into the fictionalism of the unitary self. This means, "if you're smart, you're smart." Well, that's nonsense. If you're smart, you're smart about some things and dumb as a rock about others. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
I always tend to push myself when I need to perform. Does that have to do anything with overconfidence?
MGSGeneral 4 years ago
Sounds like a recognition of the demands of a situation. If overconfident you'd be more likely to think you could handle things without having to push yourself. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
I see mika watching this video so he was here!
f3xpgm 4 years ago
A secondary mikma report is most excellent! Of course, he didn't report in, so I hope you weren't being overconfident!
8^)
tlg847 4 years ago
But he was here, i saw! lol!
f3xpgm 4 years ago
Sighting has been logged!
tlg847 4 years ago
The people around me say I am cautious for my overconfidence when I don't have to be, they are more confident in my performance than I am myself, or at least than I tell _them_ I am. Because I'd say I'm pretty confident, but I'm cautious not to take on an assignment that I can't handle because of it, and they feel I shouldn't be worried about that.
I'm not, but again, I'm cautious to be overconfident in these situations (the circle is round)
In the end, would that be over- or underconfidence?
funkwurm 4 years ago
In the end, to me, it sounds like wisdom. I'd say you have a pretty solid handle on what you can and can't do. The biggest challenge to any of us is trying to find out what it is we DON'T KNOW about a situation. That's usually what gets us. If we're smart, we realize there's something and try to figure out what it is before it bites us in the butt. thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Sometimes I think I am the "Poster Child" for overconfidence. A Police Captain approached me one day when I was implementing the first NCIC system (which was not my regular duties) at the department, and said, "You remind me of a little boy doing you know what in the snow. A dabble here and a dabble there. But he always came to me when he needed help, and to this day tells people how I obtained information for him that he didn't think possible.
ockteby 4 years ago
Overconfidence made me go in all kinds of directions. I wish all my efforts were directed in something like automotive mechanics. Then I would be "Pimping Rides" rather than watching and replying to another excellent video which I have already watched 3 times. :) Thanks, Tom
ockteby 4 years ago
The idea of you "pimpin' rides" (wearing your renetto shoes, of course!) absofrackin'lutely cracks me up, Frank! Many thanks for the kind words and great comments.
tlg847 4 years ago
These things become more interesting as they become subtler. For instance, what's the difference between "overconfidence" and "courage"? Well...some might say courage = overconfidence + luck. Others might say it = overconfidence + faith. Still others: = preparation + opportunity. Subtle but worth thinking about, imo.
tlg847 4 years ago
wow, that video made me think alot!
thanks
hellyersonline 4 years ago
If anything I'm not overconfident enough. LOL! I enjoy your videos so very much.
khayav 4 years ago
Well, that's a problem of a different sort that paperlilies also says she suffers from. Guess we need another video on that! Thanks, khaya!
tlg847 4 years ago
In a word...Yes.
Great video Tom!
2of6Solutions 4 years ago
lol, 2/6! Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Thanks Tom, very interesting video. You made some great points:)
DTOlness2860 4 years ago
Appreciate that. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
In my field(IT)...you absolutely HAVE to sell yourself. A little overconfidence can be a good thing as it will keep you on your toes and keep others expecting good things from you. Too much confidence will make you either look like a prick or a fool or usually both.
Shoregrey 4 years ago
Great distinction. Reality-based confidence is great; ego-based isn't.
tlg847 4 years ago
We have overconfidence because has humans we want to be loved liked (IE) look how great i am. People want to be right in front of others. I find that more of society lack confidence rather than have over confidence. I always like to point out that to act confident is the same as being confident there is no difference. I know this last sentence has nothing to do with you video but i just needed to say it it makes me feel esteemed :-)
TheCouncellor 4 years ago
The key is in the when/when not of confidence. As for acting like one is confident, this is a very interesting factor. In philosophy it's known as the "as if"; acting as if one feels or believes a certain thing often brings that thing to life. Professional actors use this all the time. As for confidence and love, that's for another video. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Praise can work on a number of levels when it is merited, but if it isn't merited then it's hollow and the recipient of that praise will normally know this deep down. It's the realisation that said praise is perhaps overblown which helps self confidence as we begin to realise our limitations as well as our capacity to improve.
TamHickey67 4 years ago
Hollow praise ultimately erodes self-esteem and self-confidence. It's one of the most counter-productive things we can do to someone.
tlg847 4 years ago
Am I overconfident? Sometimes, I've learned to start underestimating. If you underestimate, you can't get arrogant. :) Though I also can't underestimate too much... tis a fun challenge :)
KGSGoFreak 4 years ago
It is the key challenge. Knowing when/when not to be confident, or, more accurately, to know how confident to be and to adjust strategy accordingly. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
Praise works if it's directed and specific. An empty compliment like you're great is not specific enough. You're good with people, or you're a good listener is a more directed compliment.
Maxxie753 4 years ago
I love this video Tom. I think everything about it is excellent. I'm not just saying that.. that feedback is at least 90% accurate :)
If you ever feel like witnessing overconfidence in it's natural habitat, just tune in to about 10 min of an American Idol episode. :)
DrLemur 4 years ago
Thanks, Dan. Great point: the early rounds of AI are a huge case study in overconfidence and its furthest extension, self-delusion.
tlg847 4 years ago
I wonder how commenters contribute to videomakers' confidence. Seems either they try to kill a person's confidence or induce them to overconfidence with overstated praise. In the end, I hope most people are happy making videos for their own enjoyment, regardless of how they are received.
KennyWrites 4 years ago
Again, I find myself shaking my head in assent as I watch your video. Good topic; presented very well!
KennyWrites 4 years ago
Thanks, Kenny. Appreciate the kind words.
tlg847 4 years ago
Id like more confidence more than anything....so over confidence is beyond.
I havent even got the pluck to go out my door now.
brayshizzle 4 years ago
I can sure understand you being wary of your surroundings after what happened, Alan. Give yourself a minute to catch your breath. You'll know when you're ready to take the next step.
tlg847 4 years ago
Thank you, Paul.
tlg847 4 years ago
Glad it helped...thanks for the very kind words.
tlg847 4 years ago
I am 100% confident that you are right! I think! Well, maybe! Freida (Mrs. GeezerArt)
geezerart 4 years ago
Freida, at my age I've learned that it's foolhardy to be 100% confident about anything!
Thanks!
tlg847 4 years ago
Well then, I'm 110% confident that I'm wrong! I think! Maybe! lol
geezerart 4 years ago
You're the man Tom, and that's no overestimation ;)
macflyfilm 4 years ago
Well, that is very kind of you. Thanks very much.
tlg847 4 years ago
hahaha!! I haven't watched this video yet (i have to go to bed right now) but I just read the title and I thought "NO!"
Paperlilies 4 years ago
Well, Bryony, we know that overconfidence is unlikely to be your problem! On the contrary, you seem to have a hard time stepping back and objectively evaluating your accomplishments. But, overall, you're doing great! Keep doin' what you're doin'!
tlg847 4 years ago
Being very positive is a negative thing.
tallhunter1 4 years ago
It's a paradox, isn't it? We are so focused on positive thinking that we want to stamp out any doubt. I'm suggesting that reflection about typical style is a very valuable exercise.
tlg847 4 years ago
The jobless comments depress me. My son just got back into his field of video journalism which he loves. He had been so over-confident of his abilities that he refused to try another field of work after being unemployed for over a year. His new employers are giving him good feedback but I think he needs some good luck to go with it.
ptbernard 4 years ago
Well, it's good that he's gotten an opportunity to get some traction after a setback. Like I said in the vid, a little luck never hurts!
tlg847 4 years ago
#1 I generally feel sorry for. #2 I have no time for. #3 I have a tough time dealing with but do respect them. #4 is exactly "my kind" of person!
vancouver57 4 years ago
In my life experience, there are generally 4 kinds of people:
1. Those who lack confidence and constantly underperform.
2. Those who have too much confidence and don't live up to their self-billing.
3. Those who have a lot of boisterous confidence and do deliver.
4. Those who have a quiet confidence and do deliver.
vancouver57 4 years ago
That's a 2x2 matrix of confidence/performance that we've all seen, Joe. Well put. And your assessment of people who reside in those quadrants is very, very common. Thanks.
tlg847 4 years ago
I'm underconfident in all three areas with fair consistency. The reasons are varied and extend many years back. One reason though is that I tend to be more deeply affected by my failures than my accomplishments, which is part of a feedback loop because being too hesitant and indecisive is in itself a type of failure. Consequently, I gravitate toward activities in which failure is subjective and inconsequential. e.g. I don't climb mountains, I vlog.
poopsIingingmonkey 4 years ago 2
Working with overconfident people really makes me want to fail at climbing a steep rock face. They just create work for everyone else and become tiresome. But they do help us to appreciate happy and practical people a lot more.
poopslingingmonkey 4 years ago
That's a cautionary tale, for sure. It's also an example of feedback opportunities...
tlg847 4 years ago
Diminishing accomplishments and overvaluing failures is not a great recipe for success, PSM. The impact is just what you describe: lowering expectations. Gradually developing risk-tolerance is one way to address that situation. Putting yourself in precarious positions? Why do that unless you feel ready.
tlg847 4 years ago
Your points are well-taken Tom and I appreciate the note of caution. A relevant point and one that requires me to focus heavily on emphasizing what I've done well is that I'm currently looking for a job. I know from my own patterns of behavior that we must be positive and work to achieve things we don't necessarily feel ready to achieve. Positive thinking really does yield good results and affects those around us. I'll continue to fight my demons and be positive! Thanks as always Tom :)
poopslingingmonkey 4 years ago
Your a lot like me in all those ways PSM. I can certainly relate to gravitating toward paths where failures are subjective.
DrLemur 4 years ago
great topic Tom! I'd love to be able to instantly know where I'm overconfident, but I guess its a process whereby I'll have to take a long hard look at myself in order to find out. I'm quite confident in most things I do, but quite possibly its too much. I've crashed and burned a few times, and I think overconfidence has something to do with it
riverbasil 4 years ago
Exactly; it is a process. But if you watch where your confidence was misplaced you'll begin to learn the when/when not lessons.
tlg847 4 years ago
You know, Tom, sometimes I feel guilty watching your videos because I feel like I'm getting $150/hr advice for free! :-)
DigitalFrontiers 4 years ago
shhhh...;-)
ophelia219us 4 years ago
lol. Ooops, wasn't even thinking and let the cat out of the bag!
DigitalFrontiers 4 years ago
8^)
tlg847 4 years ago
It's the new economy: best thing to do nowadays is give stuff away! Thanks for the compliment.
tlg847 4 years ago
Tom's insights are a win-win. Positive exposure is always good, and we learn something we would not have otherwise learned, even if that's just the result of asking questions of ourselves we might not have asked without such thoughts being provoked (or invoked, for those subconscious thoughts that never bubbled to the surface previously).
poopslingingmonkey 4 years ago
When I was working, I used to think that I could never lose. I KNEW that I might not win immediately, but over time, I would not lose. I FELT successful; I produced successfully; I negoticated successfully; I succeeded in win/win; I had tangible evidence that I was successful. I had what I thought was confidence, which, with reflection, I realize may have been cocky overconfidence. - roc
popparoc46 4 years ago
Then, when I lost my job a year ago and I began to put together a CV (or resume), I found I had zero skill sets. I had nothing that anyone wanted or would want. I could produce nothing of value. I couldn't describe one thing I could do with any conficence. After so many years of seeing clear results and after really making a difference, I felt I had nothing. - roc
popparoc46 4 years ago
So, I am not "overconfident" any more. I remain jobless, and my confidence has dwindled. Is confidence related to positive activity? To the visual satisfaction of accomplishment? Plus, I think there is the issue of ageism - I am now too old for a vibrant, exciting workplace. Perhaps I should rediscover my confidence by volunteering.... Okay. I rambled enough. - roc
popparoc46 4 years ago
Whenever we stumble our confidence gets shaken. Volunteering might help you get back on stride. The more successful interactions we have the better we feel about the next one...it's about momentum. And stop with the "too old" nonsense! Go watch one of geriatric1927's videos for inspiration.
tlg847 4 years ago
My suggestion is to drop way back and re-think what you've learned about yourself over the years. It's silly to say you have zero skills after having been successful over a long career. Start with how you got those results, those win/wins you describe above. Talk to friends about what they've seen you do well. Don't keep spinning your wheels; change gears.
tlg847 4 years ago
I love this video!!
vitalfinds 4 years ago
Thank you very much!
tlg847 4 years ago
Tom! Just saw this vid and the topic interested me very very much and I'm about to comment! - John Reagan
johnreagannumber1 4 years ago
Thanks, John. Look forward to it.
tlg847 4 years ago
Hey, I have ALL three types. At least, I'm pretty sure I do....... at least I did until I started thinking about what you said....... but now I just don't know! Did you make this video to mess with my head? lol
periurban 4 years ago
In fact, I DID NOT make this video to mess with your head and I'm glad to see I've HAVE NOT succeeded! It's like that song you didn't write about me!
8^)
tlg847 4 years ago
He already wrote a song about all of us. You'll have to move for Peri to write a good song about you! He is in his creative evoking emotion stage right now! But I love him anyway! lol
geezerart 4 years ago
I think praising along with pointing in the right direction (read:criticism) is the best tool there is. But not everybody's Dale Carnegie smooth if you know what I'm saying. It also depends on the person. I think there's a lot less people that will be motivated if you outright criticise them, but then again there's also the inner motivation factor here at play.. if a person's not interested you can't really teach him anything no matter how Dale Carnegie smooth you are.
xleax 4 years ago