I am sure you are also aware of a Broadening Bottom formation as described in Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. That is also a possibility. In a broadening Bottom formation the volume will typically rise when prices rise and decline when prices decline which is what is happening here. However fundamentals definitely favor a downside breakout.
PS I think you are a superb technical analyst and thanks for sharing your expertise!
One clue to watch for the direction of the breakout, is if a leg reverses course before reaching a trend line it has a high probability of breaking in the opposite direction.
Tony, Your work is the best - excellent videos, wish we could see the charts better sometimes....
should we be waiting for a break below the bottom trend line before going short, or would one be better waiting for the top of the up move that you predict and a reversal past this current low (or the next low to be established) ?
I am long and scared..will see what G20 brings on Monday. We are on fire here in Southern Ca..It's like my own personal hell on all fronts this weekend. Is there a support on the SPX where we should abandon any thought of an upcoming rally?
sincere thanks, tony, for your kind, generous help and profound market analysis which is of great value. a rare gem of real expertise and a genuine spirit of caring long buried in the industry.
1 question, you say expanding triangle normally occur at Tops not Bottoms, in other words normally a reversal pattern. Could this therefore not be a reversal pattern at the bottom indicating a multi month rally instead of a continuation pattern?
Love your stuff Tony but on this one video I must disagree. Only time will tell and since I'm long I hope you're right but I don't think we'll have the huge emotional swings up with no chance of entry like you think we might. I think we get a nice pullback even tomorrow to the 885 or so range and that would be a good place to get long if you're not already. Disclaimer - we are in a bear market so going long is a counter trend bet! Tight stops are highly recommended! Keep up the good work Tony!
As always, Excellent commentary...my moves have been slightly off, as I was expecting this large move up Wednesday. So i went long with calls..Futures are down 88 (- fair value) right now...Tomorrow im expecting a minor gap down, followed by sideways trading until 2pm then a solid 200-300 pt close higher.
We could even see a pullback to 8500 or so before it resumes its upward climb. There is support just below 8900, so if it rallies above, then it may be good to go over the weekend.
Tony,
I am sure you are also aware of a Broadening Bottom formation as described in Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. That is also a possibility. In a broadening Bottom formation the volume will typically rise when prices rise and decline when prices decline which is what is happening here. However fundamentals definitely favor a downside breakout.
PS I think you are a superb technical analyst and thanks for sharing your expertise!
henrymade 3 years ago
One additional comment on my last post:
One clue to watch for the direction of the breakout, is if a leg reverses course before reaching a trend line it has a high probability of breaking in the opposite direction.
henrymade 3 years ago
i wish i understood charts
rh7onda7 3 years ago
Tony, Your work is the best - excellent videos, wish we could see the charts better sometimes....
should we be waiting for a break below the bottom trend line before going short, or would one be better waiting for the top of the up move that you predict and a reversal past this current low (or the next low to be established) ?
khjohnson1 3 years ago
Tony, Love your videos. I'm really hoping you post this weekend based on the Friday action.
cmacordova 3 years ago
I am long and scared..will see what G20 brings on Monday. We are on fire here in Southern Ca..It's like my own personal hell on all fronts this weekend. Is there a support on the SPX where we should abandon any thought of an upcoming rally?
daytripperMG 3 years ago
I hope your right about being long... Because I am ;-)
mistapikkles 3 years ago
For more trends analysis, listen to Gerald Celente.
He is also in one of my playlists called 'Money opinions'
elboertjie 3 years ago
sincere thanks, tony, for your kind, generous help and profound market analysis which is of great value. a rare gem of real expertise and a genuine spirit of caring long buried in the industry.
cantuscantus 3 years ago
Aren't you also seeing this as a Bearish descending triangle Tony? (3 tests thus far of the bottom trendline and capped by the larger downtrend line)
Schweizer135 3 years ago
Please don't get emotionally attached to this rally. It will end soon and very badly.
ThePracticalInvestor 3 years ago
Thanks! This is much appreciated Tony.
Discoduck76 3 years ago
thanks for the videos, much appreciated.
J25x 3 years ago
Tony, oil is very volatile and im wondering if it will follow the markets in this same trading pattern. disclosure: im short oil at $59
maximumvalues 3 years ago
great videos!
maximumvalues 3 years ago
Thanks Tony. I enjoy your analysis. The charts are great.
cdpcash 3 years ago
Tony brilliant again.
1 question, you say expanding triangle normally occur at Tops not Bottoms, in other words normally a reversal pattern. Could this therefore not be a reversal pattern at the bottom indicating a multi month rally instead of a continuation pattern?
Keep up the great work.
roryduffy259 3 years ago
Rory,
This pattern is very unstable. Google the Portland Narrow Bridge. The concept of wider swings ultimately leads to its destruction.
ThePracticalInvestor 3 years ago
Love your stuff Tony but on this one video I must disagree. Only time will tell and since I'm long I hope you're right but I don't think we'll have the huge emotional swings up with no chance of entry like you think we might. I think we get a nice pullback even tomorrow to the 885 or so range and that would be a good place to get long if you're not already. Disclaimer - we are in a bear market so going long is a counter trend bet! Tight stops are highly recommended! Keep up the good work Tony!
FTVBrian 3 years ago
This pattern needs to suck in as many participants as possible. Watch ho hard it will be to take profits at the top.
ThePracticalInvestor 3 years ago
As always, Excellent commentary...my moves have been slightly off, as I was expecting this large move up Wednesday. So i went long with calls..Futures are down 88 (- fair value) right now...Tomorrow im expecting a minor gap down, followed by sideways trading until 2pm then a solid 200-300 pt close higher.
GoofyVideoMaster 3 years ago
We could even see a pullback to 8500 or so before it resumes its upward climb. There is support just below 8900, so if it rallies above, then it may be good to go over the weekend.
ThePracticalInvestor 3 years ago