Silver & Gold - Major Shakeout

[fCoTweAk]

Do you think we will see a future decline in silver prices to around $15-$16 before returning to skyrocketing?

[lilbitparanoid]

U wuz rite

[pardonwhat]

One hell of a battle going on @ $1195,I'd be very surprised if we dont break $1200 today, then i believe the sky is the limit!

[DavidAKZ]

opps, sorry, wrong video :-(

[DavidAKZ]

Another issue about temperature measurement is that the locations of the measurement are in built up area where there is lots of concrete buildings

[SamuraiCommando]

Silver looking volatile again. sinking right now about a quarter in 30 mins.

[lilbitparanoid]

I was very happy to see the Dubai bailout confirmation :) I kind of figured that they would do something to keep the price of oil up, but good to know before the PM markets start up tonight.

[GuildF40]

Abu Dabu will bail them out (Dubai)

Dubai got to big for it's boots but Abu will look after them (after makin them sweat a little)

[MzProgressive]

Yup! Here's the latest from Yahoo on the subject - released 2 hours ago, says the gov't of UAE will bail out any creditor who wants his cash at an interest rate point of .5% extra - They didn't make 'em sweat for too long! (for some reason, this site won't let me post the thread now - perhaps too many backslashes?)

[GuildF40]

told ya soooooooo lol

[MzProgressive]

Yes thanks

But if you'll NOTICE - I AM the one who PUT UP THOSE "DOT" LINKS Below!

Something else was bothering utube about it, as I had done the same.

[MzProgressive]

No biggy - I've missed things like that myself sometimes.

[mallamoozoo]

whats all this talk about dubai? Ive seen some quotes talk about it but i cant find any real news What sgoing on?

[MzProgressive]

Here's a pretty good story posted at yahoo news from McClatchy

newsDOTyahooDOTcom/s/mcclatchy­/20091127/wl_mcclatchy/3366122

[MzProgressive]

Here's another - they've essentially defaulted on 59 Billion in debt - asking for a six month moratorium on repayment.

newsDOTyahooDOTcom/s/afp/20091­127/bs_wl_afp/stocksworld

[GuildF40]

sorry reply above

[InterestingBoredom]

I'm picturing repo men going into Dubai and reclaiming those "world's tallest eyesores" and the "world's largest swimming pool on the beach."

[MzProgressive]

Anyone seen the latest Lindsey Williams DVDs? (Alex Jones interviews him regularly). He is a former Alaska pipeline chaplain, with apparent "insider" information of the "Elitist's" plans for the world economy.

Eirily on this DVD, he says price of oil is being held below $80 barrel, forcing Middle Eastern Nations to tap their dollar reserves which will = worldwide inflation.

see esp.: 15:50, 38:00, and 48:20 - 57:00

/watch?v=4jAgjw4jfzg&NR=1 Prophetic? Given Friday's DUBAI news?

[Decebal825]

that be why they middle east countries are going broke. could also mean they don't spend that much on gold

[Uenbg]

Know what's REALLY going on in the world before taking actions.

If you feel like investigating some more check out my playlist "The Great Conspiracy 2009 compilation". I've got more playlists on my page showing how everything connects as well.

[genghis6l99]

"file is corrupted" try virtualdub or virtualdub mpg. it restores video headers n stuff input, and output file fixed.

[sa11ee]

Gentlemen, what is the story with Peth mint kookaburras. Which ones are unlimited and which ones are not. I have heard they used to number some but now they will make unlimited amounts? A little confused, please explain someone :)

[tesskansas]

Kilo bars are still available (no mintage limit). The one ounce rounds for 2009 have already hit there 40,000 mint limit. They are still available in U.S. - but at a hefty premium, 25%.

i am glad that I have a Kilo Kookaburra - wish I had ordered more, and passed on the mouse and other Chinese Animal Characters.

2010 Kookaburros appear to be plentiful still in the U.S. - Hope that helps. AMPEX has a nice brouchure available on the topic. The brouchure outlines each product - mintage

[felixdov]

Wow John- that is one trade that you got bang on the money!

Well done mate.

[andrewebisu]

Did anyone see the RBA predict million dollar homes will be the norm in Australia in ten years? Sell your silver and buy real estate LOL. Great work Stellaconcepts

[ozwasp]

The problem with Silver is that it's treated as an industrial commodity rather than a precious metal. Central Banks have only been buying Gold, not Silver or any other precious metals.

[FUZZYisBIG]

Regardless, it is a metal of value. It is still a commodity, even though it doesnot have that appeal of gold. And it's much cheaper.

[ahmedvienna]

You know guys.. I was thinking about that for the past few days .. Who would step in and start buying the silver ? Central Banks obviously are interested into gold. Will we have a Hunts brother scenario coming up again ? Or will silver just go up because gold is going up too ? Who would step in and buy it in large quantities like gold ? Chinese people ? - I dont know.

btw: I am a big silver fan and wish to see it go back to it's old 20-15:1 ratio with gold.

[SatwaMan]

Most of the gold has been stolen.

[crabbydogtrix]

i leave town for a few days and the world goes nuts. thanks for the update

[SamuraiCommando]

Anyone on here seen the new commercial for buying silver on FOX news? They talk about how its worth more than gold and how it is used in industry. crazy stuff. And Glen Beck today was pretty good.

[drutter]

Cool, sounds like a good commercial. When the Beck crowd decides to buy silver, that's another big leg up. Then when the rest get in, another. And finally the sheep will wake up and realize they've missed the boat - but they'll buy anyway! That's bubble time and almost time for the smart money to get out.

From what I've heard, anyway :)

[investornator]

oh 27 billion wiped of the Australian stock exchange

[investornator]

Remember you never loose or gain till you sell your commodities.If you have them horded you should not worry what the price is of the commodity.The only time i really care what the price is,is when its time to sell for a profit

[drutter]

Technical analysis can't predict massive news like the Dubai fiasco, so your last video is still bang on the money. EVERYTHING fell, not just silver. I think silver's still in play. I highly doubt it will pull back much if at all. Gold definitely won't, it's as hot as, hmmmm, your mom 30 years ago. If it does pull back, I'd be shocked but happy, as I want to buy some more. I may do it regardless because I know silver's going nowhere but up.

[stellaconcepts]

in my opinion - silver is now stronger than before that video... as technically, we've had the consolidation of the breakout.

So yea - bad timing for the vid thats all - the only thing that is different is we had a shakeout prior... its going way higher next week.

[drutter]

Yeah gold HAS to go higher next week for sure. Silver might go sideways a bit, I don't know. I'd like to see it at least break $19 which it has been getting ready to do for a week or so now.

[11Nosam11]

it has

[exhorter777]

have u ever herd of bob chapman if not he has a youtube ch

[stellaconcepts]

bobby's the man.

[lilbitparanoid]

Hope G/S go on up enough to make the comex feel the heat of delivery demands.

[KarlBrkr]

I bought back my mini-silver Futures contract on the dip last night at 18.27 for March 2010. I sold out the Dec contract on Tuesday at 18.47.

Had to roll it over but wanted to buy the next months contract cheaper.

Thank you Dubai for that discount! lol.

[ahmedvienna]

for how many troy oz is the mini contract ? 5k t.oz ?

[BJamesEason]

But the price downturn wasn't just confined to gold and silver: everything went down--I have to disagree with it being a shakeout in gold and silver as it was a downturn in the Asian markets and that led to quite a bit of margin calls, and positions were liquidated: it's always a matter of what you can sell, not what you want to sell; and commodities in the metals rebounded quite nicely.  Oil took a massive hit if you were long.

[stellaconcepts]

it wasnt a shakeout in gold and silver no... it was a shakeout in a lot of markets.... ur right... but still a shakeout.

[BJamesEason]

I think you were right on the technicals in calling silver around $19/oz by November's end and a good one (I believe that was your call).

Looking at all the markets it appears that silver has rebounded the fastest and rebounded with the highest recapture of the price before the drop--extremely bullish actions.

Keep up the work, they are many people who appreciate it.

[AfterTheFox75]

I walk away from the computer to enjoy the holiday and come back to market chaos. I'm very disappointed in you John. I thought you ran a tighter ship than this. I thought the instructions I left were clear, you were supposed to raise the price of silver another dollar, not let it fall a dollar. Geez! Luck for you it came back up at my arrival. That's discipline for you. ;-)

Ok, enough silliness.... thanks for the update! Too bad I missed the buying opps at the dips. :(

[rollinglibs101]

John let's just say hypothetically speaking..That silver drops betwwen $8.00 and $10.00..What would you do?Buy more or reevaluate you're opinion on silver?

[gapheu]

Buy as much as you can.

[stellaconcepts]

is that a trick question?

;-)

[rollinglibs101]

Who the hell knows for sure..I still think silver could hit $20.00 by years end..but on the other hand I am just a little guy..I always said if you are not on the inside you are outside when it comes to the market..What I look at our Monetary policy is the US..It can't be sustained..So I am betting on pm like silver to make large moves due to severe inflation..AS far as Dubai.something is very fishy

[sarahsgift1]

Does anyone know if banks in the US are closed today for the thanksgiving holiday or was it just yesterday?

[lilbitparanoid]

silver back at 18.25 on kitco. (?)

[stellaconcepts]

closed at 1830... very bullish

[lilbitparanoid]

Thanks for the reply. I'm trying not to freak out :) Still a little queasy from last year, but I know that a lot has changed since then.

[galikazoid]

thanks for this timely update mate!

[InTheSticks1881]

Perhaps one explaination would help. I've witnessed market manipulation on thinly traded stocks over the years. The hit happen during a major holiday and cooresponded with the news from Dubai made it convienent and more effective. Investors are away and the trading is thin. Eventhough they killed the chart and broke momentum, the weak hands that can slow progress later are out.

No worries, the fundementals have not changed, and Dubai only strengthens the need for Gold.

[stellaconcepts]

agree - i dont know if stuff always goes down on holidays - i've noticed that whichever way th emove is - its just magnified on holidays.

in either case, the silver close is nothing but bullish

[sarahsgift1]

Great video! I really appreciate all the hard work you put into these videos to keep us informed.Best wishes!

[taxman1002]

how can silver spot drop 40cents halfway through a closed market? can anyone confirm if anymarket is open at the moment 8pm uk time looks like new york is closed

[taxman1002]

also now getting different spot prices on different websites $18.28 on some $17.90 on others same for gold

[lilbitparanoid]

what is going on with silver now? Just dropped to 17.90 all at once. This looks very suspicious. Gold is only down about $5 Does China have PM markets open this afternoon?

[hack3434]

It's like they don't even bother making the price manipulation look real.

[CASTILLOM1]

Hey John, tell me if what im thinking makes sense. Gold has pulled back on the news that Dubai is defaulting. Could it be because in order to pay for those loans theyre going to have to sell many of their gold reserves and market reacting?? I see a good gold buying opportunity coming soon. In fact im going to Dubai in December to check it out. Gold much cheaper there I've heard.

[stellaconcepts]

i think the dubai news was a good excuse for a shakeout.

gold and silver charts remain bullish - super bullish infact now

[taxman1002]

Hi been follwing john for a while now and thought id pitch in with an idea ,,this may not have been a correction in price just read this comment on the net "Gold pummeled in dollar terms as it becomes a source of capital drawn

to defend stressed equity positions - " as silver has been tracking gold recently on a ration of between 61 to 64 any drop on gold will have an equal effect on silver, now golds back up silver is also tracking on a ratio of 64 to 1. any thoughts?

[yogiudo]

I predicted the Dubai default a year ago.

:)

[CASTILLOM1]

Good work.

[davids11131113]

'When something just keeps rising and rising and rising' lol yea like US stock markets? Yea theyre due for a massive correction, have no business holding 100 P/E's in an obvious economic implosion, time will tell how long they can keep printing fake dollars to support stocks while the metals give the economic course the middle finger. Its all a bubble that could blow up at any time. Gold and silver, fine, but what happens when they ban trading it and make posession illegal?

[frgtmygld]

Banning trade or posession would indicate that they had completely lost control of their ability to manage demand for the metals. Such a situation might suggest that there would be ample demand to support a lively black market in"alternative" currencies. Such was the case in Russia I believe.

[kfjcer]

I've also been waiting for this correction.

It's been awhile in coming, we'll see what happens. Gold was down as much as 50 buck overnight, but now it's only down 12 bucks.

Silver has also recovered nicely today.

Shakeout indeed, nothing other than a rise in interest rates will shake me out of my metals positions.

Check out KBX on the American exchange, it's popping up nicely because of the results of their find in Mexico.

[vinny1010]

4:10 - I actually read that folks were dumping their commodities in Dubai (not if it was just them or Asia as well) when the debt payment was missed. I am not sure whether they dumped it due to margin calls or whether it was to buy the dips.

[taxman1002]

good call,,im thinking it was margin calls

[Doenietmeermee]

***** and great comments below

[Airave]

Hehe, when I first checked the charts this morning

I really had to laugh and went long over the day. :)

Thanks John, for your well explained

and articulated vids. I always enjoy

and look forward to them.

[Doenietmeermee]

ah, thought I was the only one calling it a shake out, thankx John, I am happy before I watched it, you get the ratings when I finished watching :)

[limitedplay]

only because its a sovergn fund. it could be a cat. for something bigger.

[boots920]

Its too bad there wasn't a physical gold and silver market to gain insight. What's the use of using the paper silver and gold markets because if everyone asked for delivery the product wouldn't be there.

I wish the coin shops could have a separate exchange , what's the price for delivery instead of what's the price for fiat gold a promise of delivery.

Which game would be more intense:

Monopoly played with monopoly $

Monopoly played with US $ (fiat)

Monopoly played with gold, silver coins

[Raycheetah]

@boots920

Interesting observation re "I wish the coin shops could have a separate exchange, what's the price for delivery instead of what's the price for fiat gold a promise of delivery."

eBay (however flawed) has been cited as the "real price" market. Makes me wonder: Should I close out my PMs (when I do) at "spot," or try to get closer to what they're actually "worth"? Must we accept the price set by paper traders, or set our own, as holders of REAL PMs, when the time comes? ='[.]'=

[boots920]

In Zimbabwe you can't do a 1oz gold coin transaction in Zimbabwe dollars because there's not enough paper in the country to do the transaction.

Zimbabwe Dollar and US Federal Reserve Note

both "bills of credit" a promise to pay value

Mankind, Civilization was toast in 1913 no way to have civilization or stable markets without sound money.

The fiat always resets to 0, PM always maintains value.

[Piscivorus]

On the contrary. What we're seeing with the rising price of gold is not a bubble, it's a very slight partial correction from the slow collapse of the last bubble. It should really be around $30,000/oz but they've never let it happen. A new bubble is already expanding and it will likely reverse the price of gold for a little while. The next time gold drops below 1000, I'll be buying up all I can afford because there will be no recovering from this last and final mother of all bubbles.

[nepenthean]

sub1000USD levels are gone mate

[Piscivorus]

I can't say for sure but I would not be surprised.

[anujbahl]

Today's action is very bullish. Watch for divergence to start coming in. G&S will start to diverge from other assets particularly stocks. G&S have already showing signs of diverging fromt he dollar over the last few weeks.

[stellaconcepts]

extremely bullish. i had wished for a close above 18.30 to be super excited about what it could do - its currently at 18.40! ok hasnt closed - but its made the ground back. unless there is another story to rock the market - this thing is going higher

[ang60]

Don't worry mate, Murphy is always lurking around. We all know Au and Ag will get alot better in the long run.

[me2ontube]

i hope you're wrong - i want to see it drop to 15 and that's when i'll do like india did with gold

[stellaconcepts]

i understand - mixed feelings all the way!

[amritsharma]

Long-term Treasury Auctions in 10 days.... it'll probably add to the volatility.

[stellaconcepts]

yea they are having less and less effect tho - seems to be auctions every second day :) but yes, if any auction needed defending - its the long bond - 30yr

[surviveTHEtimes]

India is in works to buy another round of gold from IMF as large as the last.

[popomp1]

look at the price of silver and gold now doesnt look like the dollar is going to come back--

[stellaconcepts]

amazing recovery... things are looking so hot for the metals right now ;)

[jamiedore]

Huge drop on the horizon...

So what?

US investors have the same foreign buying power (they manufactue diddly-squat) as last week. The true price of AU is told in 'other' currencies! (Vietnam?)

Love these moves - 'twill be plus/minus US$235 per day swings soon.

BRING IT ON!

[MrZ421]

as fast it feel, as fast it rises right now.

right now >18.4, i expect it to go up on the ny trade of today to >1.87, maybe 1.9

[sureseam]

I rarely disagree with much of your analysis, however the market never seems to go straight to where the fundamentals inescapably say it should.

There seems to be a spooked herd bouncing the spot prices around, far more than seems reasonable.

The next week will interesting, for sure. A further break to the downside would not surprise me as I suspect there are a high proportion of frenetic speculators around who may well be distracted by Dubai and the banks.

[stellaconcepts]

the retracement back into the 18.30-1840 zone is extremely bullish tho... if it can close out here - good chance we're going way higher next week.

once you make back such ground its very hard to not go higher.

the close will be important

[jamiedore]

COMEX is 'trading' it's own 'Gold'. THINK ABOUT IT!

[lilbitparanoid]

They're probably doing a lot of short covering and underwear changing right now :)

[lilbitparanoid]

Someone is buying a lot of gold; 1174.60 If the Comex fails to put the fire out this time, it seems like the market should see this as very bullish for PMs.

[slobomotion]

Things are so kooky right now, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a huge, inexplicable dollar rally in the short term. A lot of people are hanging on and just not seeing the big picture. I don't blame them -- it's scary! Best to you from France.

[kricke243]

Thanks for the video!

Didn't this Dubai "deflationery news" come "just in time" for the dollar (breaking 75 quite decisively)? Is it the forex reserve of the US: reserve of deflationary news instead of foreign currency and gold? :-)

[lilbitparanoid]

China could really back hand the comex right now if they did come in and run the price up. Come on China, make poor people like me very happy. Dow is holding up pretty well; down 160 right now. Seems like the dollar is on the way down again; 75.19

[62636263c]

Finally a chance to get in at better prices. Bought more EXK this morning. We'll see how she looks 6 months from now. We may yet see even lower prices in the short run, but should do very well in the longer term.

[skybirdbird]

tkx.....

[bluecat1122]

I agree, "artificial" is the key word.  Hold your physical.

[GuildF40]

Hope silver follows gold on the next bull :o)

[davincij15]

Not even Apmex dropped it's price.

I wonder if later on this afternoon China will come in and buy up the market to a new high in gold again?

[smasila]

Is Dubai's problem the start of the next debt storm coming our way?

[stellaconcepts]

the market is reacting like it is.

[fal2grace]

yep, down 217 at open

[slobomotion]

I did just refer both this channel and Ainslee to a woman here in France who came right out and asked me where I would place this huge severance package she got and will have by February.

[GuildF40]

would you BELIEVE I went out of coffee and came back to THIS lol

calling every UK dealer trying to find one that hasprice a justed and you guessed it. NOT ONE !

[stellaconcepts]

go figure hey? lol...

[GuildF40]

not even bloody first majestic has price a justed and that's a LONG drive for me mate lol

[sureseam]

UK dealers will almost certainly use the London Fix prices; which means once a day for silver and twice for gold. This is just the way it operates here.

The bit I find strange is that larger quantities involves committing to a trade at a price to be decided at the next fix.

So, yes, it is arcane and, no, they're not out to get you, especially as it cuts both ways.

Note also that physical silver tends to incur tax (VAT) here which adds to the overheads.

[GuildF40]

Thanks yea I know I know lol but hunting for a deal is fun :o) I am in the UK lol

[GovWillKillU]

Webster Tarpley predicted this last week...

"some "crisis" will happen that would brng capital back to New York.."

they cant do it by raising interest rates... so they must use crisis to artificially strengthen the dollar.

I am NOT selling physical here.

[stellaconcepts]

interesting - makes sense i guess

[Nuanceqwest]

the yen and the buck are taking turns in assaulting commodities.

[lilbitparanoid]

I am somewhat of a conspiracy theorist, but I find the Dubai news perfectly timed to pursuade comex winners to take cash instead of physical metals this december. Over all, the fundamentals haven't changed for the PMs. If the markets get knocked down, Bernanke will get the money hose out again. I also think that China will step in and buy gold while the price is down and help keep their citizens, who have heeded their advice to buy gold and silver, from becoming very angry. Hope I'm right.

[stellaconcepts]

i very much agree with this theory re comex delivery - read something on it today from letmetropole cafe... forgot to bring it up.

[GovWillKillU]

are they still runnin home to momma... the dollar.

[stellaconcepts]

like sheep to the slaughter in my opinion

[4rcane]

despite what Peter Schiff say, that the world won't be dumb enough the 2nd time and run towards USD for safety. I don't have the same confidence as him. I think most ppl still don't get it

[hnsbro]

I agree @4rcane - and it's a question I've asked myself over the last several months. Whether the USD is a safehaven matters not as much as it's *perceived* status. Gold is for pirates as far as most people are concerned... if they can even be bothered to think that much about it.

[GovWillKillU]

i bet they bought up gold before the dubai announcement.

buy on rumor, sell on news.

[relapsemedia]

dubai debt = do buy silver!

[DigBreamer]

Do Buy Silver, Good one :)

[oldmrelics]

Buy on the dips, time to stock up! Thanks for the information!

[wepollock]

Usually these big moves are good for gold. Been watching gold for years. GLD eft action essential and a wild-card issue.

[stellaconcepts]

aint nuthin like a good shakeout ;)

[wepollock]

Closed a long mini-contract before the downdraft based on action. Was not awake to add long position at low, now flat.

I want to see how GLD action effects the price of gold.

[stellaconcepts]

nearly went long gold myself - hit a major trendline and bounced right off it.... if it hadn't of just fallen 5% i may have pulled the trigger but i was thinking to myself - who the hell am i to pick the bottom in this move! so far - it was the penultimate bottom... littleraly to the pip. oh well - next time gadget.

[fal2grace]

Thanks John!

[stellaconcepts]

cheers and thanks for ur vids! hardly comment but watch every one!

[sphindog]

Amazing what the commercials will do to cover their shorts! Look for a rebound next week.

[stellaconcepts]

heres hoping - critical level that 1750 - if it does crack it i dont want to have to do that youtube vid!

[sphindog]

The fundamentals are still in play, right? There is still the shortage of eagles at the mint, still the committment of the Central Banks, still the possibility of more stimulus. The Obama administration's deficit estimates: 10 yrs/9 trillion (and I'm sure they're way off.) I'm convinced this is still the time to buy. Remember what happened last month at options expiriy time ($16.20). This Dubai story was, IMHO, Goldman's "ace in the hole." Next week will be a different story....I hope!!! ;)

[stellaconcepts]

fundamentals - yes.

maybe the stimulus announcement will come soon - now that the dollar is stronger - we saw a MONSTER rally on the dollar just prior to the first stimulus announcement.

[amritsharma]

That makes a LOT of sense... doesn't Obama have a "jobs summit" in early Dec? Let me guess.... stimulus time.

p.s. treasury auctions in 10 days

[sphindog]

Here we go with that rebound I was talking about...$19.30...sweet

[investornator]

Well done John,thanx for the great vid

5 stars

[stellaconcepts]

cheers!

[investornator]

Its time to trade in ya cash and add to your stash.....

[stellaconcepts]

love it - ill use that ;)

[oc5nsli341nforce4]

This is what happens when a lot of paper gold & silver hit the market.

[stellaconcepts]

how on earth do you login with that username ;)

[bunkermunk]

Thanks for the report.

[stellaconcepts]

cheers for watching

[Annihilate3275]

great vid!

[stellaconcepts]

glad you enjoyed it ;)

[popomp1]

I wonder what the dow is going to do today-- down big time I think-

[stellaconcepts]

not by much now - but looking grim earlier on

[JOHNNYH8STHENWO]

And thanks for the plug for wepollack. That's a good channel. I'm a new subscriber.

[stellaconcepts]

wepollock is da man ;)

[77300d]

Time to buy... (-:

[stellaconcepts]

fa sure!

[JOHNNYH8STHENWO]

Unfortunately I don't buy enough for the spot price to really affect me. I'm a little guy. But I buy at least a few ounces a week, usually 5-10. And I'm just gonna keep buying.

[stellaconcepts]

good plan!

[Raycheetah]

Looks like a fantastic buying opportunity, today! =^[.]^=

[stellaconcepts]

you dont say ;)

[Raycheetah]

I'll bet China will jump on this with both feet. They love the dips! =^[.]^=

[alstar70]

thanks for your hard work John

[stellaconcepts]

thanks for your support!