Added: 2 years ago
From: stellaconcepts
Views: 2,644
Sort by time | Sort by thread (beta)

Link to this comment:

Share to:
see all

All Comments (134)

Sign In or Sign Up now to post a comment!
  • ditto, please message me and explain what you are trying to say?

  • If you listen carefully you can hear a baby (Stella Jr.?) babbling in the background.

  • Funny how no one subscribes to the "contrarian" view when it comes to crossing a busy street.

    Sometimes the crowd is doing things for a very good reason.

  • im not into this carry trade thing.but i want to find out how do u borrow and from whom?

    i dont understand how u can borrow US dollars from and where. or any currency for that matter.

  • unfortunately minions like us dont get those rates - only banks

  • and ***** for the content!

  • love your tags :)

  • I'll apologies for my ignorance if gold is at $1500 next year.......barring any major war of course.

  • dont apologise - research the carry trade and get on the right side of the trade mate.

  • The RBA had to raise interest rates to curb exploding inflation in Australia. Add this to household debt levels and a governement sponsored housing bubble that embarasses the US, and you have a formula for destruction. 2009 in Oz is the US version of 2006. As for the USD, I believe it's ripe for reversal. Attitudes have changed and once the equity markets react to this, repatriation of USD's for deleverageing will strengthen it. Deflation is still the game.

  • "out for coffee"

    Just sayin lol

  • Don't get me wrong I love my real estate, I just think too many people have got themselves into too much debt. Credit cards maxed out and November looking like another .25. It doesn't look like a good Christmas ahead. Watch them by the January 2010 they will be dropping like flies. And the other thing to watch out for is the inflated ASX and Dow and the amount of people who will default on their credit cards, tough times ahead. Peace

  • no man that was some good break downs. I never heard it that simplified! Thanks.

  • hey stella you still selling kookaburras for cheap?????

  • I saw webpolloc's video too... I agree - he's mixing stocks and currency contrairian views... Still web's a good source to bounce new ideas and theories to see what sticks.

  • fyi, wepollock

    he seems very level-headed and inquisitive (with a massive Wall Street background)... so ya, in his way, like John here, they are assets in the market of knowledge!!! :)

  • wepollock is the man - he's genuine... thats all that matters in this biz

  • i didn't want to stick my neck out there, but since you did (here's the 'me too' attitude again!), IMHO, i think he's a genius too.

    although iq'wise, he's prob smarter than you, John, don't let that put you down (like it will anyways!); it's the open/thinking/inquisitive mind combined with the smarts that is all that matters in this biz - and you're certainly in that category!!!

  • there's a slip! - i read "genius" in your comment, John, not "genuine"; my bad!

    You're absolutely right. The "truthers" here on YT have an audience b/c of their genuine intentions. Seems legitimate enough to me in our present-day fuct up World!

  • Just noticed "tags" in the info box. funny:)

  • Thanks Stella in made a couple of grand on the shorts and hedged the rest and made on the physical i purchased. Basically made the same amount if it had pulled back to 15.00 US. Owning physical makes hedging a lot easier for some reason. might be psychological but still. I am planning heavy shorts again at 18.00 US resistance.

  • fomulaprimer - i think silver is going to 21 this year - i wouldnt rush into that short until you get confirmation

  • I'll wait for fractal confirmation.

  • John, why do you always look like you just fell out of bed? Great hair mate ;)

  • could be the baby factor??? ;)

  • great vid!

  • Thanks again for your thoughts John - always appreciated!

    (excellent quality video - looks like you're sitting across my desk from me)

  • Burnt toast! (sorry about it btw :0( )

    Meanwhile the PM's have taken off at a fair lick!!!

    Something about: the Arab/ Oil nations want oil to be quoted in something other than the $...?

    A bit like: "Take your $ and F*** Off!

    Sequentially denied - apparently?

    (of course, of course...)

  • Today was the first time there was a clearly defined disconnect from the USD to the prices in gold and silver moves up. The signs, proof and data all lines up but the real question is "Are you in or are you out.?"

  • You certainly get your 5*s from me. :-)

    And I give myself 5*s too, for squeeeeeezing in the door at the last moment before the show began. :-)

  • It's like the more USD/treasuries the Chinese dump, the less fear they have they will cause a collapse, and so just dump them even faster

  • 1034 for gold on friday

  • 1093 For Gold Friday!

    Silver 18.35!

    Celebrate good times come ON!

    Soon the paper will say...

    "Dollar in Free Fall! United States is BANKRUPT!"

  • For a silver to gold ratio of 59.56/1?

    I'd hope it would be lower. Like gold 1,093, silver 21.86, for a ratio of 50/1. I wanna see that ratio fall! =^[.]^=

  • This has to be killing the Silver shorts..so maybe you will get your wish

  • What about silver as an investment?

  • So, does this wipe the slate on the technical side clean? Between the Chinese bolstering PMs, and the whole gorram world saying "No more dollars for us," PMs have left the launch pad. The dynamics which drove the charts must surely now be disrupted by these unprecedented events.

    Question is: Will the PM rocket reach the moon, or fall over on the launch pad? We're flying blind, for now, until the new order stabilizes into a recognizable new pattern. ='[.]'=

  • Holy GOD 8 sovereigns on ebay for £3433!!!! Thats £429 EACH. Could have bought them for £165-£170 this morning!!!!!! btw sorry John for the comment earlier, I was grumpy.

  • Whats Japans position re gold? Are they showing any similar tendencies to China? (I know the population is only 10% but they are still the world's 2nd biggest economy with GDP of $4 trill

  • do you see the aussie dollar going to US$1.20 ?

  • John - I',m confused on the carry trade concept. If other countries borrow the USD .. even to buy another currency .. wouldn.t it be a wash .. or even supoprt the USD? I know I am wrong, just not sure why.

  • They are short selling the USD

  • Example: GS has access to FedRes FedFunds Window, so can borrow USD @ 0.25% interest. Then, GS takes that USD, converts it to AUD (for example) in the forex mrkts @ prevailing rates (and there's no forex margin for them I'm sure!!), and then goes to the RBA and like anyone out there can, picks up Aussie treasury notes (series TN0611 maturity 6Nov09 @ 3.245% annualized or TN0801 mat 8Jan10 @ 3.42%). So, effective return is 3% annualized here. Add the usual 9x leverage GS can do and that's 27%!

  • But, if I'm correct, I think the real outrage stems from the Interbank Overnight Cash Rate at the RBA (%p.a.) 3.25!!! So, only asshole banks like GS/JPMC/etc. have access to this totally liquid (i.e. no waiting even for 6Nov09 first maturity in a treasury note) 3.25% instrument. Now THAT's a healthy carry-trade esp. with that fraudulent leveraging the US banks are so good at...

  • Can you please message me and explain what you are trying to say here?

  • 1041.70!

    Good Vid John.. agreed.

    You may have mentioned this in a previous video, but how many ounces do you think is a "good amount" to have minimally? I have some friends/family who have bought on my recommendation.. from the standpoint of how high silver may go AND the world situation we will likely find ourselves in if silver goes hyperbolic, I'm contemplating the amount of silver, aside from other necessary items they should have, a person should feel "safe" with.

    Thanks again!

  • 1042.08 $

    heading towards 1050.

    getting a little spookey out here ..

    DXY getting spanked ..

    china is pissed

    buying any gold they can ..

    actually buying ...anything... they can ..

    stufff good ....

    dollar ...not so good ...

    take care ..

  • chena, what else do you see running up?

  • right now

    looks like any thing priced in US dollars ....

    india ruppie looking good..

  • support just fell away

  • Still lots of support on the spreads, we could see that $1045 in the next 10 mins. position closing may curtail rises after that, ,,,,,, ,,, panic buying may set in if this keeps up for much longer,,,

  • Thanks John ~

  • by the way John:: good call on the gold run up!

  • i think what we're seeing is speculation on inflation, when gold and the markets are all up. contrarian, could be stimulus, because the dollars purchasing power in the US for consumer goods and food is certainly holding, as stores are closing. id take this run up with a grain of salt, because the reality and the fundamentals of the true markets will eventually win out, manipulation or no manipulation. btw grats to gold holders gold hit new all time high over 1,040. lets hope it holds.

  • how about the contrarian contrarian view? lol

  • i was thinking that but didnt want to go there ;)

  • Thanks John!

  • you mean its a set up? you mean now we may see deflation like we've never seen and godzilla dollar?

    makes sense... which means it might not happen!

  • Thanks for the info.

  • $1039.55

  • The party's over.

  • $1037.5 :)

  • $1034. NOW!

  • i would like to move to another country,I wonder how hard it will be to get my bags of gold and silver on a plane.

  • As of 10:07 New York time (USA) the spot price on Kitco is $1036.30/ounce.

  • Right on mate, thanks for sharing.

  • Been a contrarian since I called the '87 crash and painfully (but ultimately, for the better) pulled out of my junk bonds job.

    It works better for me than following the obvious. Greetings from France.

  • looking at the spreads there's still a lot of upward pressure even at the1033 gold price. we could see 1045 in the next hour if the pause for the US market starts upwards, however the pause does indicate we are in speculative territory so a pull back is likely if we get more gains.

  • Hi John, Nice move to the upside yesterday and this morning for gold and silver. I heard the Arabs don't want U.S dollars anymore they want gold or FDR's.

  • and back to £1031,,, there must be massive amounts of money making these moves. Surely the drop in dollar cant be driving all this, the move in Ausie Dollars doesnt make sense, why the drop over night?

  • Contrarian Indicators = There is no way the Titanic can sink .

    Good vid and thanks ✔✔✔✔✔

    Do you need a coffee lol

  • two - i dont think ill be sleeping tonight

  • Try to get a few hours. Really there's nothing you can do to affect the outcome, right? Get some rest and catch up with the excitement when you get back up. It'll be here waiting for you. :) Besides, you'll enjoy it all the more if you're fully awake and thinking clearly.

  • A long day/night for us then guys... Im wondering if after the thousands of hours learning and watching are now whitnessing the start of the end game. Hurray for Bob Chapman, all those who have been part of this journey. And if it is that moment a thought for all those affected by others greed.

  • Gold at $1035, $30 in the last 24hrs. and rising...

  • I think that next 30 days are going to see some serious moves in the commodities and equities.

    Thats one thing for sure.

  • Thanks again John - todays RBA bump was intriguing.

    Looking forward to hearing your take on the latest development about Saudi, Oman, Kuwait, China, Russia & France all dumping the dollar for foreign reserve holdings in favour of a basket of fiat + gold.

    Its going to be an interesting month.

  • I'd be happy with a strong currency as it buys more. Too bad silver is lagging futher behind gold. I suppose the reason is that gold is widely traded?

  • right now the focus is USD:GOLD - silver will play catchup when this battle is sorted.

  • Made some money on Silver already today. I'm happy with my winnings for now :)

  • I'm Trading SLV by the way

  • Agree. Holding all silver.

  • Re USD, aren't you forgetting the extent to which the value of currency is being inflated away to nothing ?

  • no... just another nail in the coffin.

  • If the USD crashes, then one of largest consuming countries in the world will no longer be able to consume as it has been, so wouldn't that be deflationary to the rest of the world in the short term(apart from precious metal prices) because if there is less consumption, then wouldn't that mean less demand for industrial commodities and so less demand for the Aussie dollar which is supposed to be a commodity currency?

  • The ablity for large crowds to behave irrationally time and time again is well documented throughout history.

    However when you are a participant, it is so hypnotic that you do not even realise that you are part of the crowd. It is human nature.

    This stock market is overvalued and it will go down and the dollar will rise as consequence.

    Gold could possibly go up as everyone takes the fetal position but not due to impending hyperinflation.

  • the markets have already crashed (crashing) priced in gold and silver - the nominal value of the dow is anyones guess.

    why will the dollar rise when the dow falls anyhow? cause we saw that last time? that is a different thing beast.

    cause its the "safe haven" nope - lost that with the carry trade in my opinion.

    time will tell anyhow - there might be a knee jerk move in to the dollar but it will be brief and sold into in my opinion.

  • It was not a safe haven play last year. It was asset liquidation - including that of Gold and Silver, last year that caused the dollar to rise.

    When the loans become due and people cannot pay them off they have to sell assets. That is what is going to happen. I do not see us getting to 10 000 on the dow and I am sticking my neck out here but I think we have seen the last high of the year.

    If you are saying that the dollar is falling you must be saying that the stock market will rise.

  • agree re asset liquidation

    banks are flush with cash - liquidation is over... infact banks have never been more flush (even prior) - you think the people debt is enough to spike the dollar? the forex market is 1 trillion a day - and only banks move markets.

    the dow will crash priced in gold and silver... as for the dollar value - who knows (or cares).

  • I think we are coming to some agreement in that the issue here is how much debt there is in relation to the amount of money in the system.

    I believe the debt in the American system excessed by far exceeds the liquidity to pay it off.

    And the debt is more the 4 trillion.

    The stimulus to he banks was less than that.

  • the only way to pay it off is devalue the currency....ala 0% interest rates... more money in the system , devalued currency, debts paid.

  • Do you think that people will allow the government to print the dollar?

    I mean people are already taking it to the streets for a mere $1 trillion

  • I'm sure the majority of people were surprised when gold fell from it's last high in March 08, to the low around November 08(so why not again of course?), but it's come screaming back up to make new highs, that's got to send a strong message around the world, that even if gold falls, it's only going to recover it's losses and then some, so it could just get bought heavily on the dips anyway? I mean how many other assets have recovered like gold has after they crashed?

  • Dont believe the hype. Do not put your heart into this rally.

    I have bought it too but I will be shorting it with the profits eventually. Give your hear to a woman, not the stock market. I am telling you. You have less chance of being heart-broken.

  • actually, since I've made new lows in the relationship markets in the last few years now,I should probably take the contrarian stance and go long again soon:)

    They say "once bitten, twice shy",and I can say that all that ever seems to happen to me is get bitten so I'm pretty bearish, but silver's doing quite nicely, and to me, the prospect of currencies heavily being devalued over next few years is much greater than me finding happiness in love lol.Faithful to silver in sickness and in health:)

  • Well just like my advice to you is to prostitute the markets and give your heart to something else.

    You'll be happier in the long run.

  • hey john,

    any news from the Perth Mint about the 10 oz Tigers? I still wait for mine.. i ordered 4 Weeks ago now.. do they still have delivery problems?

  • no update mate - u know what i know...

  • John...

    We waited all night for your vid like screaming kids. Thank you.

    I think if you're in the zone and you know what's going on, it's just further confirmation.

    Others will see this as confusing or deny it's validity.

  • Long term- competitive devaluation.

  • exactly

  • yes either that kind of rate cut or purely a declaration of devaluation - either are possible now - still a ways away - the AUD would prob need to get into the 1.20-1.50 range before this become a serious threat.

  • The dollar is bottoming, it is forming a base.

    Has the Yen crashed from their financial crisis in the 90s?

    There was no strong yen policy it moved on its own.

    The more thumbs down I get the better.

  • mate gold just made an 81 week high - thats not a base in my opinion.

  • Well to be honest I might just ride that wave up with everyone else and use the profits to short in the way down.

  • In a way, I would like to see the USD strengthen as Robert Prechter from Elliotwave International is predicting(he reckons the USD is in a 5 wave bull market, and has almost finished it's 2nd wave down, and should commense it's 3rd wave up very soon), because just doing the opposite of everyone else would be so much easier than trying to stay abreast of all the fundamentals and out maneuver others with technicals, either way, the next few weeks are going to very educational for me:)

  • Let me ask you this. Do you think more people in this month are paying off their bills/mortgages and other debt or less?

    If you you think that rising unemployment decreases credit defaults then sure im with you.

    We are following the same path as Japan: the stimulus money is going to stocks and commodities not business loans as exhibited by the bond markets low rates.

    The more steadfast the pigs the greater the knashing when they get slaughtered.

  • small correction, Robert Prechter does actually take technicals seriously, its fundamentals he doesn't trust, he believes they are just a story the rational mind uses to justify our powerful subconscious desire to act on herd mentality. He gives an example with the fact that an individual will fill up the gas tank when fuel is cheap, but won't invest heavily into oil until after it's started to soar already, it's funny actually:)

  • Nice one johnny!

  • Dr Carl Calleman(the only 'expert' on the Mayan calendar who is accepted by the Mayan 'elders') says based on his timing concerning the mayan calendar, the USD should begin a rapid death from Nov 7th onwards, and the world will head towards a system where no paper assets will be accepted which will lead to a 'real' economy. Interesting his prediction is very near to the webbot guys November 4th prediction

  • yep, beginning of the 6th Night ...

  • Thanks John!

  • I housing bubble in Australia has to burst. It must.

  • You'd think yes. I sold up a year ago, swapped an old two bedroom red ceder outer suburbs home for a brand new double storey 3 bedroom.3 bathroom house in thailand for half the cost. Prices in Australia just too crazy for words.

  • there is a huge shortage. overseas migration are at unprecedented levels and building approvals have fallen due to lack of access to finance. hence i strongly believe it won't burst and is ready for the next boom. supply and demand.

  • banks ability to lend is what effects housing prices - nothing else. no housing shortage, no immigration - purely the banks ability (either on part of the borrower or the bank itself) to lend sets housing rates.

    the "immigration shortage" is a fallacy mate. it doesnt affect housing prices one bit.

  • that i agree. i'm talking about overseas migration net inwards to australia and hence this will drive rents up and so with a yield of about 5-8% for residential properties and hence that will set a floor. this is evident because alot of the chinese started purchasing australian residential properties from abroad. so even if the bank's here can't lend you can bet the chinese overseas will come in. they already have.

  • thekwng, thats all hipe. Read somewhere that ABS stats indicates we have more spare housing than the US.

  • i'll look into it thanks

  • hey i couldn't find anything. all i can see is lowest vacancy rates and thats the best indicator of spare housing? if not can you gimme a link? cheers

  • Had a quick look but cannot find same article that compared australia to US unoccupied houses. Did find article about last years abs that indicated 10% of australian housing unoccupied, you can find article by Google "830,000 houses empty amid rental shortage".

  • Hi there, 6 months ago i would agreed with you but 6 months on, I think the bubble will burst, not to the degree like the sub prime in America but something similar. The first home owners grant coupled with low interest rates kept the real estate boom going when prices should have flattened. The last 18 months have been a bubble that everyone wants to get in unfortunately they will be the first casualties. The RBA lifted just .25 and look at the outraged imagine next month if they do it again

  • This is the thing. Most Banks have given low income earners a average mortgage of $190,000 - $250,000 AUD. That has maxed out fortnightly payments up too 1000,00 or more. That can't be sustainable.

    Oh that price range is for poverty homes by the way. I will never buy an over expensive property.

  • Yes, true it's not looking pretty out there. Thanks for the email

  • The web bot guys are saying the Chinese announcing that they will dishonor any losing derivative contracts was the trigger event that they were predicting to begin the USD slide,for 15days after Oct 25th 09 something will have the world on the edge of their seats(bank holiday?Israel hits Irans nuke facilities?), and from Nov 4th 09 the dollar death will really begin to avalanche rapidly, and in terms of precious metal they seem to believe the words 'panic to own' will apply in January

  • Incidentally, 'Cliff' from the webbot project stated in a recent interview I heard, that he owned no shares of any sort, but has been buying silver coins when ever he has the available cash, but has made his gardening and self sufficiency etc...as a higher priority from what I could understand

  • Thanks for the video. Any guess when Australian dollar could fall.

  • not for a long time

  • The Reserve bank will probably start selling off Australian dollars to keep the exchange rate in check and buy them back when the rate falls.

  • I agree that as interest rates go higher in Oz, the market has got to see some distressed sales and when the Great Depression #2 sets in, we must crash.

  • Like Warren Buffet says, be greedy when others a fearful, and fearful when others are greedy

    lol your taking the 'contrarian' view of Australian real estate, and being bearish on it while everyone else is so bullish and desperately trying to buy into the boom before prices go higher, so that makes you the smart money right?and you own silver too right?....awesome, I must be on a winner then:)

  • In this world of 'total contradiction' indicators that are totally in contradiction of one another are of course par for the course.

    All one can do as a responsible/intelligent individual is glean as much information from as many different sources as is possible, and then go with the biggest YES.

    Isn't that why we watch all these video's like yours on You Tube, as well as read the myriad of articles on these subjects?

    Each day the picture IS becoming clearer.

    Good video,

    Thank you.

  • Well said, thank you!

  • but it is good for exports. and Australia was a big target of the yen carry trade too.

  • how is it good for exports? it means buyers prefer to shop elsewhere for a cheaper deal..

    australia is a massive target now for the carry because we have the highest interest rates than anyone involved in the G20

  • sorry john i explained it wrong...it is good for the usa because it will make their goods cheaper abroad and it helps the international companies bring good international profits back home.this really helped Japanese companies and society during the lost decade...it, on the other hand is not so good for Australian exporters.i want a gold standard and a more stable exchange regime going forward. this is idiotic this system

  • no mate.. it will mean they have to pay more usd's to buy stuff from us... it will be more expensive for them to shop from australia - they will look for somwhere else where they can get the same whatever for less usd's.

  • Are you against a gold/silver standard? Because if we had this in Australia it will so call "hurt" our export because our currency would be too strong

  • a strong currency is ok if it goes hand in hand with a strong economy. my point was that our currency is artifically strong due to the carry trade... the audusd cross doesnt give an indication of the strength of our economy anymore - only the extent of the carry trade. im all for a strong currency... if we have the economy to boot.

  • Obviously this was always going to happen...

    This is why the Amero is ready and waiting in the wings to be rolled out as and when required.

    However if they're not careful.. the rest of the world won't be too keen on the Amero when it comes out.

  • Ok, let me get this straight... when you say "the USD is fucked," now do you mean in a homosexual or straight way? Also, in which orifice and will there be lube involved?

  • I've been thinking, a carry trade from USD to AUD assets, means alot more money is coming into Australia pushing alot of assets up. We might not experience a housing bubble burst because too much money is coming in

  • I don't know. From the charts I've seen, your housing markets are way worse than ours was before it popped.

  • no - thats not how a carry works - we dont get richer - we just get lower prices (its kinda deflationary in a weird way) no money is coming into the system tho... our standard of living increases IF your livelihood is not effected by the carry... in our case, we're heavily reliant on our exports... a strong currency and strong exports do not go hand in hand

  • In other words, one or the other has to fall by the wayside? So, with the carry trade bringing a strong currency by default of the high interest rate...then the export markets for you guys must slacken off then. Than according to this, then this would eventually cripple the Oz economy in it's soft spot and weaken it's ability to remain stable by hanging onto China's coattails (through the heavy exports with them). -Or maybe I'm suffering muddy logic thanks to lack of sleep....lol

  • I have fears that within a month the dollar could suffer notable damage, marking the end of the present "calm before the storm." Do you have any ideas about when we will bust through $20 silver?

    Thanks John

    PS What happened to the HD version of your vids?

  • Hopefully not yet I need too buy more lol.

  • Somehow I felt compelled to rate you five stars for your brilliant scholarly like explanation. :)

    Thanks John! -And here's to a big, earthshaking day in the market.... my gut's all butterflies.

    Hope the little one was ok!

  • I think you're looking after your own interests here. aka the perth mint? Seems as you are so heavily invested in Ag. You know something don't you? Can't quite understand what you said. Rambling. Not quite able to say something. Panic and rebound. Tell us really what you think John.

  • CelticReject - whats not clear?

  • Nice.  Now I can get some sleep. lol.

  • Nope. Market will be opening soon. You HAVE to watch this train wreck in progress!

    That's the way I feel in any respect...

  • The dollar's death is a done deal, I hope we would have enough to eat in the years ahead

  • Golds up $7 in the last half hour again due to ausie interest rate hike and the report in the UK Independant paper ref BRIC Jpn and Gulf states to move to Gold in the short term and SDR in the long. the question is which country will break ranks and dump sooner, probably the markets will get there first as they do not have the same political gerrymandering to deal with.

    D

  • Today gold will break $1030

  • twisty straw? hehehe

Loading...
0 / 00Unsaved Playlist Return to active list
    1. Your queue is empty. Add videos to your queue using this button:
      or sign in to load a different list.
    Loading...Loading...Saving...
    • Clear all videos from this list
    • Learn more