China 2025 - Stephen Roach on China's Economy (1/3)

[milkofmal]

One way to know if china is being envied and doing the right thing is that the 'china - bashers' come runnin' in.... It's always easy to point out where things can go wrong but one should always 'get their house in order' first before lecturing 'solutions' to others and expecting them to listen to ya.... they have lifted out millions out from poverty and they will continue to do so in the years to come and as always different obstacles will emerge...

[manofadventure]

there is one stereotype about modern china that most people know chinese success is her economical development```and, also been labled as 'copyier' and lack of innovation```however, statistics from WorldBank and International Monetary fund showed otherwise, that China is the world biggest High Technology player leads out the second place u.s with big margin``and also china recieves the second most patents from international patent treaty cooperation just after u.s!

[KatiushaVN4]

Propaganda

[milkofmal]

@KatiushaVN4 yeah, propaganda it is... but its coming from stephen roach and i kinda like his track record and not some you tubee anonymous smart ass.... cheers!

[catnipcraze1]

ON THE 400 MILLION EXTRA POPULATION COMMENT.

The chinese fertility rate is FAR BELOW american level, at just 1.1 children born per woman ! (the figure for united states is 2.2 !), at this point, in the foresable future, Chinese population will START TO DECLINE (i.e. negative growth of population) as early as 2025 !

In fact, their population is never gonna be above the 1.3 billion mark, and it has been stopping at that figure for almost 15 yrs !

[bobby4500]

gotta love stephen roach and peter schiff

[bobxchen]

why no one is asking the most important questions? Can We peacefully transition into a democracy like Korea & Taiwan did in the 90's? unlike KMT in 80's, so far CCP has made absolutely no progress towards democracy. Or will we suffer the same fate as USSR? If so what will happen to Xingjian and Tibet. If we transition into democracy, will the Uyghur\Tibetan stay as part of China, or will they vote to secede from China.

[huiguorou2007]

Hey, thanks for sharing this.

[Powa2]

The Chinese economy is truly incredible, it's an economy that makes me reminisces of Korea in the 80s and Japan in the 60s. It's a dynamic economy that isn't laden with debts that's fueled by real growth. The ultimate success of their economy could be attribute to their government, the government has provided and cut loans at the right time, invested heavily in all areas and promoted labour. However, their economy has to increase consumption to extend their growth after their labour cost rise.

[erictjie]

My china needs to slow down below 8 % growth to be sustainable for the long run otherwise we will like Japan in 80's which doesnot help the world recovery and also more economic development in inner west and increase wages to reduce social tension. come on China you can do it!

[chrispo187]

@Powa2 need a whole lot of reform for success in the future though! probs with corruption, shakey financial institutions propping up inefficient state-owned enterprises, aging population and the lack of any protection on intellectual property rights. the next couple of decades will be very interesting though!

[Powa2]

@chrispo187 Yes that is true, incredible market liberalization is still needed. China needs to shift its economy from export to more of a import based. It has to tap into the purchasing power of its people by making people spend instead of save. However it can't do that until it improves basic welfare like health care or unemployment insurance so that people won't worry but saving.

[Metsada007]

@Powa2

The only problem is that they will face serious trouble in the next decades because of the one-child policy.

[Ortheos2006]

@Metsada007

No they won't. How much trouble would they face if they had 400 million extra mouths to feed?

[Ortheos2006]

@Powa2

domestic consumption has skyrocketed. Most cars sold int he world, worlds largest market for luxury goods, it's all pointing up from here.

[CHUUMPASS]

@Powa2 china will be enron of asia, their accounting practices actually are highly doubtable, you cannot honestly be of the opinion that china is incredible, for example when the west experienced the dramatic slow down and still suffers from it china posts numbers again that simply don`t correspond to reality, they are cooking the books, the investment flow into china from the west made the U.S. suffer, but china has peaked and will be short sold and it will come to be this decade.

[milkofmal]

@CHUUMPASS ....

[Dimitri0809]

@CHUUMPASS

But how come China could not grow their own economy? How come they have had to rely on foreign investment?

[CHUUMPASS]

@Dimitri0809 because china attracted foreign investment first to get an inflow of money into their system first, and they basically did that with providing slave labour for low skill production as they have people in abundance over there willing to do about anything to make just a little money as a little money is still better for them than what they otherwise have,which is nothing.add basically non-existent environmental standarts for industrial activities to that and you know how it came to be

[Dimitri0809]

@CHUUMPASS

So when does the time come when things actually become free you know.. when we have the ability to make things free hopefully?

[CHUUMPASS]

@Dimitri0809 you mean like free of charge? free for everyone? well, you are free to try and make all the stuff that you need/desire yourself, if that`s what you meant in your comment/question. but there will always be a certain degree of interdependency between people that inhabit the same planet so to speak.

[Dimitri0809]

@Powa2

If china can invest and get a hold of advancements in technology then the time will come where china may become a superpower that has the capability to provide it's people a high technological standard of living similar to what Japan lives by.

basic necessities like clothing and food may be a free commodity in future not just in china.

[khmaiboihon]

@realpolyester

maybe its because most of US don't care about anybody but ourselves...aka our currency is doomed

[RealPolyester]

Hey khmaiboihon

I remember hearing a former U.S. ambassador to Iran chastise our society for being "insular". What's ironic about it is that we are essentially a nation of immigrants.

Asia has some fundamental challenges to overcome. I senses that they are building an intensively crude oil based economy like the U.S. Such is a horrible strategy for the future.

--Best

P.S. There are some people here who look forward to (and will benefit greatly from) the death of the dollar.

[khmaiboihon]

The only people who will benefit from this is the top tier. What about the average Americans who have all their savings in Dollars? It feels like there is a force that is driving this to happen.

[RealPolyester]

This lecture has been up for a month and it ONLY has 404 views! Have we become that brain dead as a society that we ignore the thoughts of guys like Stephen Roach? He just reconfirmed my belief that there will be a world altering resource crunch in the future.

And what will the mainstream be asking itself when shortages arise: "Where'd du oil, water and du other resources go? No one saw dis comin'."

We're in trouble people.

[danielz4485]

its amazing how little essential information reaches the mainstream media. not just in the usa, but everywhere.

[milkofmal]

@RealPolyester people are more into Madonna dating some guy less than half her age or what Lady Gaga is gonna wear, i guess.... cheers!