Matt Simmons (Bloomberg): Peak Oil Now, Oil Perhaps to $300

[donttrustany1]

"oil rigs are all 25+ years old....the age when we use to scrap em"

Oil company's make the most profit in history, so why would they not be building new rigs? Peak oil has either happened or will happen very soon.

[janvantonder]

Peak oil will put an uncomfortable stop to the exponential growth of all the things we define as human progress.

Be it population growth, economic or scientific progress. All of these things are ultimately dependent on a finite energy source and it is high time we rethink how our global society and economic system functions.

[ADollarSaved]

Solar power is energy. Conservation IS energy. All these things help the economy. Insulating your house frees up energy for other uses. All energy is more or less interchangeable. Save electricity with compact fluorescent bulbs & you're also saving oil! Jack rabbit your car about and you're also driving up the cost of electricity.

A dollar saved is . . .

[daltonagre]

Here in Brazil, a brent of ethanol costs just about R$50.

[DescryHeart]

Yep.. Drilling is about to become a must on the coasts of California, Florida, all the state coasts that never drilled before. But Guess what? Louisiana, Texas, Mississippi get the shaft at the 65 dollars a barrel. No wonder those states were holding out. Hmm 300 dollars a barrel? We'll be paying $13.84 a gallon of fuel then. Business?

[DescryHeart]

And we'll see more laws which take away freedoms that claim to be directed to this so-called Oil Peak. Their answer is this.. lets make tons of money, reserve enough for the rich, and let the poor suffer. Then when we get low on oil, we'll advertise a new location of oil fields, and start drilling again.

[DescryHeart]

Our government will have plenty of oil. Its the people who worked for it that won't have it. Or they'll need plenty of money to buy it. Rich getting richer, poor getting poorer.

Government will make sure they have plenty of fuel to fight wars if the have to. Even against angry civilian mobs.

[daltonagre]

Uncle Sam is doing nothing against peak oil.

[GFkilla17]

good luck you stupid humans

[54spiritedwill54]

The solution is nuclear and/or wind power, electric cars and an insane amount of lead-acid batteries, since they are cheap.

[LatteLiberal]

Families with babies dont want to be killed in a tin can Prius. The IIHS website is a lie because it claims the Prius and hybrids to be safer than some larger cars. IIHS is biased by liberal interests. Jobs are lost when fuel economy goes up. Soldiers will be laid off if war ends. The only way to help the economy is to take over more oil and icrease military activity. Period.

[phantomentality]

we (the entire world), must wake up and produce all electricity and run all transportation on green energy! there's no escape of that!

[edwinthomasr]

should have listened to carter....'malease' is nothing compared to whats coming now....

[newculture]

The scariest thing about this is that Simmons is downplaying the issue. When equating the energy in oil to human muscle energy or labor, a GALLON of oil is worth over $1,000.

I understand why he is just going with the numbers that people throw out though. Most people probably imagine $1,000 per gallon to be beyond possibility and even ludicrous. And yet, it is the truth, just do the math.

[ZeketheSwede]

This guy is virtually correct. But was he right on the Saudi oil production? It has actually started to increase again lately. He predicted that the peak was imminent there too.

[TheRealArchAngel]

Saudis don't have as much oil that they say they do, but they are intentionally trickling the spigot. Truth of the matter is that a barrel is 47 gallons, and the Saudis get about 5 cents a gallon, and the Oil Companies make 10 cents a gallon of their end of the deal with government subsidies covering the loss of about $7 a gallon in transporting it and selling it to a refiner.

[ZeketheSwede]

Matt is right. So what can you do? Ethically: travel less. Economically: buy gold. The gold price will follow the oil price, look what happened in the seventies!

[risen777]

thanks for the many informative comments....

[iorr98]

It looks like we are way past the time to look for solutions, that was in the 70's, all we have left now are "options", welcome to peak industrial age.

[Marchant2]

If we can get people to turn their homes into their work station, think of how many cars that would take off the road and how much oil that would free up. One of the most inefficient things in the world is to have everyone go to work at the same time, clogging our roads while idle cars waste oil into the air.

[LatteLiberal]

Solar power will hurt jobs. So will hybrids and public transportation. Energy efficiency will only hurt jobs and not help the oil thing at all. What we need is more drilling. We need to take over as many arab and oil countries as possible before its too late!!

[AfanassievIgor]

we are f*cked

:(

we are.

[TheRealArchAngel]

Actually the Saudis are fucked, because driving the over all price for oil products up by getting greedy is promoting alternative fuels technology. Luckly Industry doesn't work on Starbucks Coffee which is currently $2585 a barrel by comparision or corn Oil which is $375 a Barrel(unrefined)

[geir44]

Good points. Norways production is decreasing now, only NGL is increasing.

[transhuman7]

The oil issue is inherently a supply and demand issue, since we're dealing with a finite natural resource. Economics is a little more complicated than profit maximization. This is not a market issue. Mother Nature doesn't care about markets.

[talktal]

amazing, people who speak logically are considered heretics. this is the voice of reason.

[Golgo13ThePro]

Matt had to restrain himself so hard from telling her that the game is over and oil-dependent societies are going to implode under the colossal weight of their own unsustainability.

[janvantonder]

Very well said!

[alanhowitzer]

$300 a barrel oil within the next three years? Absolutely.

How do you fix it? It's the solution to the problem!

[massagemantra]

Wow, I love this guy. Oilaholics shall pay and burn. I always wanted to see a civilisation sank

[massagemantra]

Wow, I love this guy, and I'm not gay and I've no car. Bloody oilaholics, Burn.

[Meowbay]

You might not have a car, but your food, your internet-router, your shirts, yoru shoes, it's ALL depending on oil.

[chuckerchucker]

Food, internet, shirts and shoes don't depend on oil, they depend on energy. There are other ways to produce thise energy besides oil (Wind, Solar, Turbines) but the car is the only neccessity that requires oil and only oil thus far.

[bryceronie]

Oil companies spend profits finding more oil, oil potentially in Darfur and many dying there now. Describing how to fix Global Warming and Global Dimming is the issue now. There is one fix, that society demands from corporations alternative energy, and choose to pay the costs for it to become cheaper over the years. Or we will wait until peak oil eventually hits, if it does, people will demand alternative energy since oil prices will be too high. Once demand is set, businesses supply.

[TheRealArchAngel]

"Oil Companies" are actually Energy Suppliers and Exxon provides most of the Uranium to nuclear plants as well and Chevron is the largest producwer of commercial Geothermal Power and also Hydro-Electric. Governments restrict R&D on them and still make them supply oil "at gunpoint" though it's not really profitable to them as Alternative Energy would be.

[Canadaman005]

We're not gonna have to give up air conditioning. When electricity and natural gas prices get too high public demand for incredibly cheap nuclear energy will exceed public fear of it. (Nuclear energy is up to 7x cheaper than oil-powered electric plants.) Let the markets work their magic.

[ntt688]

The solution...get away from an oil based economy as soon as possible.

We should use hydrogen for cars and nuclear energy for electricity to assure a future with no environmental or energy issues and no wars over oil.

[ntt688]

I think the western economy is slowly being deliberately destroyed by its enemies, using oil prices.

[rpmangin]

There will be mass starvation (most likely starting with the poorer nations), and those humans that do survive will have their life expectancies cut in half IF WE'RE LUCKY!!!! We have also burned all of our bridges with nature along with burning crude oil, so us humans in modern economies will all DIE!!!!!!! On the upside, since we're all going to be dead within ten years (at the most), we might as well LIVE IT UP NOW!!!!!

[ricmcusa]

Synthetic fuels require a relatively high price of crude oil in order to be competitive with petroleum-based fuels without subsidies However, they offer the potential to supplement or replace petroleum-based fuels if oil prices continue to rise. * The raw material (coal) is available in quantities sufficient to meet current demand for centuries * It can produce gasoline, diesel or kerosene directly without the need for See the rest on wikipedia. Or look it up on the net.

[maninbucium]

starting to farm every acre of land is the biggest necessity at this moment

[mancomendoza]

Driving V6s and V8s just like Americans and Canadians do it´s an absurd,and a luxury. Plus they drive bigger cars with every generation of cars in those countries.

[2buckchuk]

Yeah unfortunately there is no quick solution,to this problem. Check out A Crude Awakening, it's pretty good documentary regarding oil.

[belmont14]

I think he's right that the phrase Peak Oil will replace Global Warming as the new global talking point. Unfortunately, by then it may be too late to implement any worthwhile changes.

[rlgladding]

It will never run out completely, prices will just keep going up. It will eventually be too expensive for people to buy so there will always be some left.

[TheRealArchAngel]

Add to the fact that what you learn in School about it being from Dead dinosaurs and plants being utterly wron as there is Oil in the middle of the Oceans. Truth is that,like Dimonds, Oil and Coal and Shale are a type of "Lava rock" from deep earth, and closed Wells seem to seep new oil into them, though not at a rate making them worth opening again

[radicalsam]

If it were true don't you think the auto industry would try to make more  fuel effecient cars trucks average mpg is 18 mpg The model T in 1908 got 25 mpg! toyota in 2002 made a concept car toyota eco spirit that got 100 miles to the gallon then canned it? search toyota eco spirit,Audi A2,VW Lupo.

PS newculture won't let me post this on their video because their gov.,big oil shills and don't want people to know it's all a lie to bunch us up in big cities to better control us

[CO2Junkie]

Great vid. Thanks for posting it.

[COMALiteJ]

I really cannot see a way that civilization as we know it will survive even another generation. We're too dependent on petroleum, its supply will decline, and there are NO viable substitutes that will cover ALL of what we need oil for. Not even any viabile COMBINATION of substitutes.

[5k3lu2]

We now use 10 calories of oil to grow 1 calorie worth of food. This ratio of ten to 1 is only sustainable thanks to cheap oil. Human population as grown much higher that what agriculture can feed without the help of oil. The wake up call will be brutal. I hope you know how to grow potatoes and empty a fish, guys.

[schizophrenic123]

You need to look at grain prices. We are shortly to be reintroduced to `real` inflation. The US won`t make it to wpring without a real fuel shortage.

[redviper101]

Most of the plastics that surround you come from oil. Many products come from oil and it's not just fuel. It will run out at some time. That is a given.

[228player]

But the issue is not literally running out of oil, but the demand highly surpassing the supply rate(which is diminishing).

[COMALiteJ]

Not just plastics. Pharmaceuticals (from chemotherapy to Vaseline® PETROLEUM Jelly), synthetic fibres (rayon, nylon, polyester, etc.), lubricants (duh!), and many others, most notably the Green Revolution pesticides and herbicides which are the ONLY REASON we can even PARTIALLY feed seven billion people on this planet — or six billion. Or five. Or four. Or three. We can MAYBE feed TWO billion without them.

[COMALiteJ]

The thing is, you can't make ANY of those things out of wind power. Nor water power. Nor solar power. Nor geothermal power. Nor even NUCLEAR power (fission nor fusion, even if the latter were made feasible)!

Nor can most of them be made from biodiesel, ethanol, etc. They can ONLY be made from SWEET CRUDE OIL.

[truthseeker83]

peak oil will happen because oil companies want to keep their profit margins as high as possible. peak oil doesn't mean oil is running out, it doesn't mean demand is rising too fast, it means it's more profitable to not invest in places like venezuela, Iraq and Iran so we're going to let prices rise. or maybe it's real, i dunno. either way we should work on reducing demand.

[Etimos]

Peak oil doesnt mean oil is running out, or demand is rising too fast, OR that oil companies are trying to drain as high a profit as possible. Peak oil is when the oil that remains is so troublesome to extract that it takes more energy to pump it out than you get once you've done it. At this point in our developement, we are already scraping that line. Oil is currently only providing slightly more energy than it's consuming. By 2010, we'll be breaking even.

[alexpasch]

That is incorrect, peak oil is when production the year before was higher than the current year (with the reason being the increased difficulty in extraction/lack or reserves)

[Azathoth43]

hi there, you're right, it doesn't matter one way or the other whether or not peak oil is geological (which I tend to believe) or manufactured. The result is the same.

We have got to, as a nation, get our heads out of our asses and look at our lives and lifestyles and see where we are being taken advantage of, see where we can cut back, reuse, conserve etc...

[bouncedrealitycheck]

Look. Oil is AMAZING as far as caloric energy. (thanks to all organic matter that existed before us)

STILL, it's cheaper than bottled water, but will SKYROCKET in your lifetime, to make air travel Too EXPRNSIVE. The OIL game is over. We need somebody smart to think of a new way. QUICK. The Iraq war, among others, is based on this. We need an alternative. The Gig is UP! Let's do it...

You kids out there...we need a genius to save us...Like an Einstein. HELP!!!

[bramcorleone]

Hahaha.. that's really funny!! I already thought of it today.. there are over six billion people out here on earth, which means there are at least one or more really, really smartasses, who can maybe (I hope) fix this GIGANTIC problem pretty soon!!

[Favel22]

The solution is nuclear and/or wind power, electric cars and an insane amount of lead-acid batteries, since they are cheap. That could hold civilization in one piece until Doc Brown finally invents a way to power a flying Delorian with garbage.

[Neithax]

Einstein is one of the most overhyped physicists. All the hype mostly comes from the american media. Most of 'his ideas' came from either Lorentz or Poincaré. Don't get me wrong, we need a revolution in the energy production. But since you mention a true genius, I think we are referring to someone as a new Newton or Tesla.

[kkob]

Incorrect. Peak Oil is a geological phenomenon, not an economic one. We simply cannot produce enough any longer. Oil discoveries peaked 30 or 40 years ago. We have been using more than we've been finding for years. Reserve stocks have been falling since summer. Winter demand will be about 88 million barrels a day vs. 85 million barrels a day produced.

[sundarbal]

Simmons is unleashing the hidden fear in our mind. I teach this in the university but the bitter fact is that the ultimate depends on individual responsibility and a responsible government which is in the hands of politicians and administrators who abide to their interests. The human tendency is to remain cool until an emergency strikes and that is what we have to wait for while persons like us sit with hands crossed waiting for the impending disaster including Simmons.

[jeroid]

Better enjoy your air conditioning while you can, folks.

[derjew]

exactly. Im worried about this, but i dont drive my car less agressivly or not use my ac. Im suckin it all up for me!

[scidhumouse1]

Denial is a horrible thing. Look at your neighbors cars and understand that they'd rather send their own children to war in the middle east than give up their SUV's. Until that changes, we're all doomed.

[profgoose]

If you all are interested in this topic, make sure to go over to The Oil Drum (theoildrum DOT com), really educational and evidence-laden place over there.

[jackson32]

profgoose

It's all good that we know peak oil is coming, but the problem with most peak oilers is that they sound like their looking forward to it, that now we will "live in tune with nature", "stop raping the planet", "live simpler" etc. Most of these people are just closet socialists/communists. They're completely uninformed about libertarianism, the free market, and Laissez-faire Capitalism. Government control of the economy will be the biggest barrier to solving the peak oil issue.

[simonrijsdam]

When the oil really starts running out, money rapidly becomes worthless. Everthing we consume in the west is dependant of oil. Doesn't get any closer to doomsday than this!

[retrop75]

very telling stuff -- explains the scramble for control over the middle east

[DoctorJohnJGibbons]

Frigin' genius. Can't dismiss him as a librul loon since he is a Bush backer.

[schizophrenic123]

The most promising technolgy being developed seems to be GM crops, if you can take fertilizers and pesticides out of the question you`ll save a lot. It looks like all civilaztion does is buy time until its inevitible collapse.

[schizophrenic123]

Can anyone describe a functioning industrial economy not based on fossil fuels. The nuclear industry is surely subsidised by oil? How do you build power plants without fossil fuels? How do you mine and transport fissile materials?

[jackson32]

The whole debate of Peak Oil comes down to how much oil, discovered and undiscovered is left in the ground. Matthew Simmon's is an expert on this subject, so we should take what he says very seriously. What is not debatable is that many of the largest oilfields have had their oil production go down in recent years while others have stagnated, and this supports the Peak Oil case.

[jackson32]

Peak oil is real, the only questions is when. It's impossible to tell until we are at least a few years into it, but there's a good possibility were very close to it already.

[tlacoyo1]

U BUNCH OF LOSERS electric, nuclear and other kinds of energy cant be transformed into cups, bottles, clothing and so on...the car u driving has a great percentage of oil derivates...we make everything out of oil, so to say that just switching to electric or nuclear isnt the solution to this, the GREATEST DISASTER in human civilazation

[nurbsenvi]

plastics are recyclable and polymers can be extracted from sugarcane

[TheRealArchAngel]

Not to mention the CO2 sent as Byproduct of burning oil based fuels can itself be turned into plastics. Oil itself is is a natural product and it's the outdated technology that is wasting Co2. 100 years ago Gasoline was a "useless byproduct" of making Kerosene that was just dumped after processing other oil products out of it

[confeysteve]

what fuel will the recycling plants use?

[4ourthofjuly]

It takes quite a bit of energy to recycle plastics, and the product gets worse every generation.

[Cortisol]

and also we ahve people like Mr. Palast who say nothihngs wrong and we all should live like consuming pigs for the next 100 years.

[azdalin]

Times running out guys and gals!

[styx123456]

Thank you very much for the post.

Peak Oil has been foreseen for many years. Mass Media coverage of an imminent global economical crisis will cause widespread chaos, so I'm surprised that even something like this was aired. So many small-minded idiots in this world are too ignorant or self-absorbed to even begin to consider the magnitude of this impending problem.

[franceshaller]

We all need to drive electric cars.

[MrTeaB]

powered from nuclear power stations.

[derjew]

thats a temporary solution to a permanent problem. Uranium is extrememly limited and peak uranium probably wont be to far off if we started using it up alot

[latinslav]

How about bicycles instead.

[rpmangin]

I hate to say this, but bicycles won't work in a post-oil world either, as it takes oil to manufacture and transport bicycles to the masses. Face it, 90% of all humans cannot survive without oil.

[jrwakefield]

If Ontario Canada were to instantly convert to electric cars we would have to build 40 nuclear reactors, which would take more than 50 years to build.

[OilCrash]

For a complete look at the topic rent "A Crude Awakening" from Netflix or buy the DVD from Docurama. Matt Simmons features in it as well.

[steadydecline]

Get your V-8 Interceptor ready.

[brunsviger]

EVIL OIL >

Its better we dont have oil. We cant control it !

[DYBoulet]

Thank you for posting this video. It is sad to see how so many people are absolutely oblivious as to how incredibly important this issue is to humanity as a whole.

[theoneagain]

WE NEED alternative energy BIO hydrogen fuel cell and solar power ; end oil; oil is bad news for everyone no more wars

[ccricers]

Peak oil would occur when marginal profits from producing stuff from crude goes into the negatives, right? That is, if we're facing a decline in the energy return. Or is it just simply supply and demand?

[profgoose]

if you are interested in learning more about this topic, google "The Oil Drum," it's a great blog/place to talk/learn about energy for layperson and for the expert.

[colefordham]

Conventional oil has peaked & is now in decline. The US strategic petroleum reserve will be drawn down and oil prices will spike. Hyper-inflation will be imbedded in the world economy. Oil shale will NEVER be produced in any significant quantity or capacity. It's physically impossible (do your own research). This is the beginning of a precipitous decline into absolute destitution. Remember.. The Roman Empire didn't fall in a day.

[3rdbillygoat]

Check out Matt's little model oil rig pumping away there in the background... Classic!

You tell 'em Matt! Good shit since I started engaging with you 4 yrs ago.

Regards - da 3rdbillygoat

[madraven06]

Everything we've known since 1850, when petroleum started fueling our society, is false. What looked so boyant in the mid-20th Century has made a sickening mess of our planet and induced to procreate to unsustainable numbers. The world's human population can only survive on cheap oil and, with that gone, we risk a descent into chaos and eventual contraction as a species.

What to do, what to do?

[bennycouch]

Everyone in cities are fucked. One solution, from the grass roots. There are 5 billion people walking around because of oil. Flee the cities now! There is no future in our cement block cities.

[rspawn]

Fascinating to hear an insider of the capitalist system say that we need to "end globalization as we know it and liberate the work force" - them's socialist words...

[wakadudel]

Considering the magnitude of this imminent catastrophe, why are the financiers & commodities traders the only people discussing it? Where is the Al Gore of peak oil?

[cytuber]

BE WARNED: Many people believe this peak oil scare campaign is simply to enable the big oil co's to raise their prices without a triggering a civil war. In other words, they're faking scarcity to increase their prices.

When I see a big oil company divesting its way out of the dying oil business, then I'll consider believing they're running out of oil but today, the oil industry has never been more powerful or profitable.

[eseptimus]

I wish you were right...However, no new oiltankers or rafineries are being build. Oil companies are merging left and right, which is usually what happens when companies are having problems. Oil is being drilled everywhere; in more and more difficult places to get to. And oil companies are denying peak oil to keep their stocks up. These are some examples of the fact that peak oil is not just a scare of big oil.

[Favel22]

Well, cytuber, duh, of course the oil industry is more profitable than ever, with sky high prices at max production. Thats not the point. We know that as oil becomes more scarce the price will go up, making oil companies even richer even counting the loss of production. Thats statement in no way contradicts the idea that oil will eventually run out, no matter the price or the wealth of the oil companies.

[ibis118]

I hate Capitalism and the meaningless of modern life. Glad to see this so called "civilisation" is finally going to collapse. What a vile and ignorant species we have become, maybe utopia is on the other side (but probably not soon)

[ve240]

the problem is not enough oil, but to many people.

[rspawn]

Oil is a finite resource regardless of how many people there are. With less people the oil will last longer. Perhaps we should kill off everyone but the Oil CEOs so that they can live happily ever after.

[oilcrisis2010]

you might be right rspawn, there is a New World Order Plans to depopulate the earth by 80% soon. Can you say nuclear war & yes russia and china have ICBMs that can reach all major US cities. All the top elites don't have to worry about that because they have their secret underground bunkers to hide from the nukes. Good luck to all!

[opalcomp]

Yes, excellent service putting Simmons up here,he is a sane expert. Unfortunately, the news is not good. This century will be "interesting".

[erikmyers74]

Wish they 4 hours?! They should bloody well make 4 hours of coverage on every media outlet on Earth. This is a huge problem. It isn't just "shit it's too expensive to drive my hummer" it's "SHIT! We can't feed people under our current system". The vast bulk of objects on your computer desk right now are oil based and/or needed massive amounts of oil to get to you. The threat of this is the end of civilisation. Muslims are no threat, this is!

[westerhof]

Notice the pumpjack operating in the background. Sweet! Is that the executive pumpjack made of brass that is currently being sold on the internet? Its slow movement is very relaxing.

[PeterSodhi]

Nice post - very valuable coming from Simmons.

[DaveEngland187]

we need to RE-locolize everything in our lives. but nothing is going to change. people are so stupid and corporations are greedy SOB. we're all F*cked and doomed to the post industrial stone age and serfdom

[OddI87]

Norway is declining!

[yigit2681]

alot of countries are going to run out of oil in this century. daily comsuption is in the millions, total reserves is in the billions so go figure!

[CheeChee21]

Karma's a bitch.

[magaga7]

This life time will be interesting. I cant wait to see our fate.

[ploppy193]

Scary stuff, I heard about peak oil last year, its coming, and its coming soon!

[richardsprague]

Anybody know the date on this clip? It says "today oil is at $65/bb"...but that's not true in late Jan 07.

[profgoose]

it's actually from 1 FEB 07 on Bloomberg. He's not too far off, today on 2 FEB, we're pressing $60. Lots of instability in the market right now, which is rather the point.