i agree that its probably a once in a lifetime offer to win $1 million and that you should go for it. however equally, how many times do you have the chance to win 500,000?! its hard to say without being there yourself...but when the other box is 5000..it seems like a no brainer to me, if the other box had been 100k, then i think i may have gone for it.
Well, since I'm a college sophmore, I probably would have said no deal as well. Because, even if you don't get the million dollars, 5 grand could still pay my tution. If I were like older, I probably would have said deal.
If quadrupleplay and this woman had a child he would turn down 999999 if he had 2 cases 1 with a mil and 1 with .01, they are just that stupid and greedy
The people you are calling me and Koshka won $10,001 and $12,000 in the first place, so you can't even tell that. Although not too long after you posted, you probably knew that...yet you should of course still remove the comment...
quad you fukin failed, you could've taken that 416k and got gastric bypass, a new home, invested it made a fortune when the market recovers, but no you wanted to coinflip it and lost bc your a fat greedy dumb fuk just like Koshka, enjoy the 10k you won and forget about the 416k you lost
Did you REALLY even read my channel? There's no way my "alias" would stand up if it were an alias, given everyone else whom I would be associated with as such an important person in that game's community.
Wrong. The expected payoff for NO DEAL is $502,500 *plus* the value of the trip, which is $7,000, plus whatever happens on the trip. And you don't know what happens on the trip yet.
For all you know, the experience she had on the trip may have been worth the 50-50 gamble of losing $518,000 to gain $477,000, in monetary terms of profit (from either a 1M win or from Broadway) or just a life experience. The expected payoff for Deal is $530,000, period.
No life experience is worth instantly losing that much money on a stupid decision. She has to make a decision at that information set, weighing all the options and should've decided it based on probability alone. The immediate gratification factor should be huge. Certainty is a big plus. Obviously we have a failure in Nash equilibrium (she didn't predict correctly).
Sure. No one can correctly predict the contents of the cases. But one can make educated decisions on which path to go with. Obviously, DEAL would've been the better choice because it gives a better payoff, based on the known information, not contingent on future payoffs.
The better payoff is thin and that margin is unchangeable - it's not going past $525,000. Meanwhile, that future payoff is unknowable and unlimited. However small a chance is of a really high payout, it adds more weight onto the No Deal side until the very thin margin of $525,000 vs. $509,500 is completely covered and possibly beyond. Possibly far beyond.
So that covers the monetary side...want to get into the intangible at all?
That's the thing though... Who's really to say she'll have a good time on the trip? She could spend the ENTIRE TIME moping that she lost half a million dollars on not going with the overwhelmingly obvious choice of DEAL.
Our calculations is simply contingent on the expected pay offs, based on probability. The payoff of DEAL is always higher than NO DEAL. That is the mechanics of this game.
Wrong again. If you're talking about just money, it's usually the other way around because the offers are under the expected payout. Each board is different in its own subjective sense, but if you were playing for points, you'd refuse about 95% of the offers.
No. The game is made in such a way that the player always has the incentive to choose DEAL. We call this a Nash equilibrium. There exists about 25 Nash equilibria. The game capitalizes on the players' inability to correctly predict the contents of the cases (and therefore failure of the Nash equilibria). Before you spread untruths again, please look up Nash equilibria for your own benefit.
Just because the player has the "incentive" to choose DEAL does not make it mathematically right. It's just that more people than there should be do it.
Also, just so you know, the "block user" button is only one click away. It's faster than your site, which is "a few clicks away". Learn to count, please.
Basically, the only bad situation is that she holds 5K *and* the audition does little for her, which is a two-event conditional. Even then, she doesn't necessarily come out of it with a sackcloth and ashes - SHE GOT ON BROADWAY. Nobody can buy that. Period.
She rejected the final offer because she was promised a Broadway audition for the musical "Hairspray" in NYC ONLY if she went all the way. That was the only reason why she went all the way.
Not the only reason. She could actually pull out the 1M as well, which would shut andrewmanford up no matter what the result of the audition was.
The 7K value adds to the 5K and 1M, reducing the effect of the AMO offer of 530K, and every dollar she might earn is added to *both* possibilities of No Deal. It only takes $41,000 to become 46K vs. 530K vs. 1041K - which is now an even gamble.
Also, the possible upside from the audition is limitless, while the downside is 525K - 1/2 of the time.
Actually, blasphemy of the Holy Spirit is the most deadly of all sins because it's the ONLY sin that God will not forgive, not in this life or the next.
Okay, so apparently you have some daddy issues or you suffer from some silly god-delusion. Anyway, my comment stands and anyone opposed is clearly not too bright. Only a very stupid person would turn down that much money on such crappy odds. The outcome validates my commentary. Q.E.D. But I admire your passion for a poor argument.
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Ah, I see. I just checked. You're a teenager. Makes sense now. You're too young and stupid to know which side of your playpen smells the worst. Go play with your Sony Playstation and wonder what it's like to have money and get laid. Come back in 20 years.
"She rejected the final offer because she was promised a Broadway audition for the musical "Hairspray" in NYC ONLY if she went all the way. That was the only reason why she went all the way."
That is priceless, and it's potentially a moneymaker. She would not get it by Deal, which means a small extra amount on the No Deal side would turn those "crappy odds" into favorable odds. The extra amount is limitless, while the loss is limited and also 1/2 the time.
Koshka: "I said, all I need to do to purchase a house for my mother and my father, and pay all my bills would be five hundred thousand. But I wrote a check for myself, for a million dollars, and I believe it's in here!". Obviously, she wasn't 100% certain that the $1M was in her case, and I was surprised that it wasn't there because case 18 has a consistent history of holding HUGE amounts of money. Case 18 once held $6 MILLION for Michele Falco!!!
"I'm crazy, I'm too crazy....so I'm gonna say, NO DEAL!!!". Yeah, it's totally insane to reject $530,000!!!! But then again, Koshka is a very brave woman to have gone all the way like this, so kudos to her.
This is simple math: The 1M case can be in one of three groups: the one case on the podium, the 24 cases already picked, or the case in the gallery. 24 out of 26 times, it will have been picked out of the gallery already. 1 out of 26 times, it will be yours. So that leaves 1 out of 26 times it's in the gallery.
There's a difference between this and Monty Hall, where the 24 cases already picked are GUARANTEED not to have the 1M. So 1 out of 26 times, it will be in yours, and 25 out of 26 times, it will be the 25th case in the gallery. However, with random picking, there is only a 2/26 chance that the 1M still remains on the board at all: Either it was in yours (1/26), or you chose your case that didn't have it and then chose 24 from the gallery that didn't have it (1/26).
Her chances of making it on Broadway are about zero. The "walk-on role" means she gets to be an extra for one performance, basically someone in a crowd scene. On the other hand, the 530k was guaranteed.
I love how the call-in contestant at the end up made more than she did.
There's more than that, Lednerg. It would be dubious if she knew she would win 5K, but she could have left with 1M!
To get good out of this situation, either she has to win the 1M or make it big on Broadway. And if she doesn't do either, remember that she could have done both..That will balance some of the loss. And even if she doesn't make a lot, $41,000 is enough to make the initial gamble worthwile, as I explain below.
You just don't know what's going to happen after this, Lednerg.
The estimated value of the NYC trip and hanging out with the Hairspray cast is about $7,000. She's not going to be paid for the walk-on role, and I sure wouldn't bet on it somehow leading to a check for over $41k any time soon. NYC has PLENTY of singers more talented than her, and 99% of them never 'make it'. Exposure on a TV game show means nothing in Broadway.
It boils down to trading $530k for a 50/50 shot at $1m. That's it. She could have bought the rest herself, plus some training.
You can't buy a private meeting with a celebrity or the walk-on role. If you get noticed by a celebrity, that can indeed lead to something big.
The supporters agreed with her when they said that.
And before you tell me that at 530K they said "You can buy all that!", that is true, but that's not to be believed, as at four cases, with no safety net, they told her to go all the way, knowing that this offer, bound to be $500K or more, would have to be turned down to do so.
1st: Golfer, did you read the display? You have the offer all wrong.
2nd: You can't make any judgments becuase the final tally of this game is, as of yet, undetermined. If Koshka makes less than $41,000 on Broadway, let the axes fall. Why $41K? That is the theoretical loss by going on due to the high-skewed offer.
And even $518,000 in the tank isn't close to$659,000, and you know that she was more illogical than Koshka can ever be. Koshka played on for reasons; MB stopped for no reason.
i agree that its probably a once in a lifetime offer to win $1 million and that you should go for it. however equally, how many times do you have the chance to win 500,000?! its hard to say without being there yourself...but when the other box is 5000..it seems like a no brainer to me, if the other box had been 100k, then i think i may have gone for it.
maddoggmabey 2 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
serves her right
Zaryo33 2 years ago
lol pwned
welshkid123 2 years ago
She got what she fucking deserved. My rule to other people is DON'T ANNOY ME. She instantly annoyed me and therefore I'm glad she fucking blew it.
cheatshot26 2 years ago
Well, since I'm a college sophmore, I probably would have said no deal as well. Because, even if you don't get the million dollars, 5 grand could still pay my tution. If I were like older, I probably would have said deal.
Tenorsaxman3030 2 years ago
BURN!!
mycutekat 2 years ago
BIG BLOW!!
kim2tt 2 years ago
If quadrupleplay and this woman had a child he would turn down 999999 if he had 2 cases 1 with a mil and 1 with .01, they are just that stupid and greedy
videowatcher765 2 years ago
The people you are calling me and Koshka won $10,001 and $12,000 in the first place, so you can't even tell that. Although not too long after you posted, you probably knew that...yet you should of course still remove the comment...
quadrupleplay 2 years ago
quad you fukin failed, you could've taken that 416k and got gastric bypass, a new home, invested it made a fortune when the market recovers, but no you wanted to coinflip it and lost bc your a fat greedy dumb fuk just like Koshka, enjoy the 10k you won and forget about the 416k you lost
videowatcher765 2 years ago
Did you REALLY even read my channel? There's no way my "alias" would stand up if it were an alias, given everyone else whom I would be associated with as such an important person in that game's community.
quadrupleplay 2 years ago
:DDDDDDD
boitano666 2 years ago
Hey quadrupleplay how does it feel to be watching the only contestant in game show history dumber than yourself, go enjoy that dollar you won genius
videowatcher765 2 years ago
looks like she should switch to islam.
thousandlegger 2 years ago
IF YOU SPEAK IT, IT SHALL BE DONE!
What the heck....does she believe Jesus cares if she wins an extra $500,000?? What an idiot!
hoffmanleigh 2 years ago
w power
aaronsjesus 2 years ago
lmaoooooooooooooo
she thought she was gonna get it..LMAO
simonote 3 years ago
Okay, it's like this... For anyone who's not well versed in economics and game theory.
The expected payoff for DEAL is = $530,000
The expected payoff for NO DEAL is = 0.5*1m + 0.5*5000 = $502,500.
0.5 is because she has two cases, 50% chance of going either way. Obviously, DEAL would've been the better choice.
happyjihad 3 years ago
Wrong. The expected payoff for NO DEAL is $502,500 *plus* the value of the trip, which is $7,000, plus whatever happens on the trip. And you don't know what happens on the trip yet.
For all you know, the experience she had on the trip may have been worth the 50-50 gamble of losing $518,000 to gain $477,000, in monetary terms of profit (from either a 1M win or from Broadway) or just a life experience. The expected payoff for Deal is $530,000, period.
You should maybe read the comments.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
No life experience is worth instantly losing that much money on a stupid decision. She has to make a decision at that information set, weighing all the options and should've decided it based on probability alone. The immediate gratification factor should be huge. Certainty is a big plus. Obviously we have a failure in Nash equilibrium (she didn't predict correctly).
happyjihad 3 years ago
She may not lose that much money, and it may not be a stupid decision.
And who can predict either the contents of the cases or the result of what happens on the trip? I know you can't. So just forget it.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
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happyjihad 3 years ago
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quadrupleplay 3 years ago
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happyjihad 3 years ago
Sure. No one can correctly predict the contents of the cases. But one can make educated decisions on which path to go with. Obviously, DEAL would've been the better choice because it gives a better payoff, based on the known information, not contingent on future payoffs.
happyjihad 3 years ago
The better payoff is thin and that margin is unchangeable - it's not going past $525,000. Meanwhile, that future payoff is unknowable and unlimited. However small a chance is of a really high payout, it adds more weight onto the No Deal side until the very thin margin of $525,000 vs. $509,500 is completely covered and possibly beyond. Possibly far beyond.
So that covers the monetary side...want to get into the intangible at all?
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
That's the thing though... Who's really to say she'll have a good time on the trip? She could spend the ENTIRE TIME moping that she lost half a million dollars on not going with the overwhelmingly obvious choice of DEAL.
Our calculations is simply contingent on the expected pay offs, based on probability. The payoff of DEAL is always higher than NO DEAL. That is the mechanics of this game.
happyjihad 3 years ago
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quadrupleplay 3 years ago
"She was very happy"
Good for her.
In game theory, this is called a Centipede game. The payoffs of DEAL is always higher than NO DEAL. Look it up on wikipedia. This is a famous game.
happyjihad 3 years ago
Wrong again. If you're talking about just money, it's usually the other way around because the offers are under the expected payout. Each board is different in its own subjective sense, but if you were playing for points, you'd refuse about 95% of the offers.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
No. The game is made in such a way that the player always has the incentive to choose DEAL. We call this a Nash equilibrium. There exists about 25 Nash equilibria. The game capitalizes on the players' inability to correctly predict the contents of the cases (and therefore failure of the Nash equilibria). Before you spread untruths again, please look up Nash equilibria for your own benefit.
happyjihad 3 years ago
Just because the player has the "incentive" to choose DEAL does not make it mathematically right. It's just that more people than there should be do it.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
No. "incentive" to choose DEAL means that DEAL gives a better payoff every time. That is the beauty of the Nash equilibrium.
happyjihad 3 years ago
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quadrupleplay 3 years ago
Expected payoff of NO DEAL = (1/3)5000+(1/3)152000+(1/3)400000=185,666.67
Expected payoff of DEAL = 185,666.67+e
such that e is some epsilon greater than zero, but ExpPayoff(DEAL) shall not equal or exceed the highest payoff on the board (400k in this case).
A Nash equilibrium occurs at DEAL. Contestant should choose DEAL.
happyjihad 3 years ago
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quadrupleplay 3 years ago
That offer is too low. Where did you get these numbers?
happyjihad 3 years ago
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quadrupleplay 3 years ago
I asked where you got those numbers.
happyjihad 3 years ago
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quadrupleplay 3 years ago
Right. But what game? You got an episode number? A time? Date?
happyjihad 3 years ago
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
Where did you get these numbers 5000/152000/400000?
happyjihad 3 years ago
QUIT COMMENTING quadrupleplay !!!! ARE YOU LIKE ANALYZING THIS WHOLE VIDEO???????????????
golfer9301 3 years ago
Also, just so you know, the "block user" button is only one click away. It's faster than your site, which is "a few clicks away". Learn to count, please.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
Hey, quadrupleplay it looks like your staying up to date setting everyone straight in the comment area, so im glad you have enjoyed my video
golfer9301 3 years ago
Basically, the only bad situation is that she holds 5K *and* the audition does little for her, which is a two-event conditional. Even then, she doesn't necessarily come out of it with a sackcloth and ashes - SHE GOT ON BROADWAY. Nobody can buy that. Period.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
what a stupid decision. why would you turn that deal down and take that chance...such greedy people.
andrewmanford 3 years ago
She rejected the final offer because she was promised a Broadway audition for the musical "Hairspray" in NYC ONLY if she went all the way. That was the only reason why she went all the way.
zucchini2007 3 years ago
Not the only reason. She could actually pull out the 1M as well, which would shut andrewmanford up no matter what the result of the audition was.
The 7K value adds to the 5K and 1M, reducing the effect of the AMO offer of 530K, and every dollar she might earn is added to *both* possibilities of No Deal. It only takes $41,000 to become 46K vs. 530K vs. 1041K - which is now an even gamble.
Also, the possible upside from the audition is limitless, while the downside is 525K - 1/2 of the time.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
Pure GREED. The most deadly of all the sins.
nachosjuan 3 years ago
Actually, blasphemy of the Holy Spirit is the most deadly of all sins because it's the ONLY sin that God will not forgive, not in this life or the next.
zucchini2007 3 years ago
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
Stupidity is her crime.
GodlessBastard 3 years ago
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
Okay, so apparently you have some daddy issues or you suffer from some silly god-delusion. Anyway, my comment stands and anyone opposed is clearly not too bright. Only a very stupid person would turn down that much money on such crappy odds. The outcome validates my commentary. Q.E.D. But I admire your passion for a poor argument.
GodlessBastard 3 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
Ah, I see. I just checked. You're a teenager. Makes sense now. You're too young and stupid to know which side of your playpen smells the worst. Go play with your Sony Playstation and wonder what it's like to have money and get laid. Come back in 20 years.
GodlessBastard 3 years ago
I told you to read the comments.
"She rejected the final offer because she was promised a Broadway audition for the musical "Hairspray" in NYC ONLY if she went all the way. That was the only reason why she went all the way."
That is priceless, and it's potentially a moneymaker. She would not get it by Deal, which means a small extra amount on the No Deal side would turn those "crappy odds" into favorable odds. The extra amount is limitless, while the loss is limited and also 1/2 the time.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
it was not the greed but a diluded religious person! where was that areshole god when you needed him.
umeshpatel 3 years ago
Koshka: "I said, all I need to do to purchase a house for my mother and my father, and pay all my bills would be five hundred thousand. But I wrote a check for myself, for a million dollars, and I believe it's in here!". Obviously, she wasn't 100% certain that the $1M was in her case, and I was surprised that it wasn't there because case 18 has a consistent history of holding HUGE amounts of money. Case 18 once held $6 MILLION for Michele Falco!!!
zucchini2007 3 years ago
This has been flagged as spam show
what a dumb nigger
ewoodham 3 years ago
that is just so mean and degrading
roswellatup 3 years ago 4
This has been flagged as spam show
what are you going to do about it, bitch?
ewoodham 3 years ago
Thumb the comment down?
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
i woulda took it
hockey6671 3 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
"fools and money are soon parted..."
this bitch is as dumb as they get.
londonelvis 3 years ago
This comment has received too many negative votes show
What a dumb bitch. I'm glad she lost for being such a stupid shit.
jussisaurio 3 years ago
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago
"I'm crazy, I'm too crazy....so I'm gonna say, NO DEAL!!!". Yeah, it's totally insane to reject $530,000!!!! But then again, Koshka is a very brave woman to have gone all the way like this, so kudos to her.
zucchini2007 3 years ago 4
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 3
Ugh, thats hard to watch...
mb1412 3 years ago 2
Good Video man!!!
theneighbors123 3 years ago 5
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 4
Comment removed
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 5
Always switch cases if given the choice....simple math
PGolf2 3 years ago
Completely wrong, PGolf.
This is simple math: The 1M case can be in one of three groups: the one case on the podium, the 24 cases already picked, or the case in the gallery. 24 out of 26 times, it will have been picked out of the gallery already. 1 out of 26 times, it will be yours. So that leaves 1 out of 26 times it's in the gallery.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 4
There's a difference between this and Monty Hall, where the 24 cases already picked are GUARANTEED not to have the 1M. So 1 out of 26 times, it will be in yours, and 25 out of 26 times, it will be the 25th case in the gallery. However, with random picking, there is only a 2/26 chance that the 1M still remains on the board at all: Either it was in yours (1/26), or you chose your case that didn't have it and then chose 24 from the gallery that didn't have it (1/26).
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 3
Her chances of making it on Broadway are about zero. The "walk-on role" means she gets to be an extra for one performance, basically someone in a crowd scene. On the other hand, the 530k was guaranteed.
I love how the call-in contestant at the end up made more than she did.
lednerg 3 years ago
lollerskates
ukstevey 3 years ago 4
There's more than that, Lednerg. It would be dubious if she knew she would win 5K, but she could have left with 1M!
To get good out of this situation, either she has to win the 1M or make it big on Broadway. And if she doesn't do either, remember that she could have done both..That will balance some of the loss. And even if she doesn't make a lot, $41,000 is enough to make the initial gamble worthwile, as I explain below.
You just don't know what's going to happen after this, Lednerg.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 4
The estimated value of the NYC trip and hanging out with the Hairspray cast is about $7,000. She's not going to be paid for the walk-on role, and I sure wouldn't bet on it somehow leading to a check for over $41k any time soon. NYC has PLENTY of singers more talented than her, and 99% of them never 'make it'. Exposure on a TV game show means nothing in Broadway.
It boils down to trading $530k for a 50/50 shot at $1m. That's it. She could have bought the rest herself, plus some training.
lednerg 3 years ago
You can't buy a private meeting with a celebrity or the walk-on role. If you get noticed by a celebrity, that can indeed lead to something big.
The supporters agreed with her when they said that.
And before you tell me that at 530K they said "You can buy all that!", that is true, but that's not to be believed, as at four cases, with no safety net, they told her to go all the way, knowing that this offer, bound to be $500K or more, would have to be turned down to do so.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 2
1st: Golfer, did you read the display? You have the offer all wrong.
2nd: You can't make any judgments becuase the final tally of this game is, as of yet, undetermined. If Koshka makes less than $41,000 on Broadway, let the axes fall. Why $41K? That is the theoretical loss by going on due to the high-skewed offer.
And even $518,000 in the tank isn't close to$659,000, and you know that she was more illogical than Koshka can ever be. Koshka played on for reasons; MB stopped for no reason.
quadrupleplay 3 years ago 3
Lucy you got a lot of esplainin' to do.
realtorman2 3 years ago 3
LOL
Khamprasith 3 years ago 3