Harry Dent Oct 2009 Economic Update

[harrydentfam]

you have the same name as me Harry Dent

[Ellipsis10]

in the Revised version of the Great Depression Ahead you guys wrote that the market would crash between December 09 and February 10. The market closed at 10,300+ for February.....The real questions is: will the economy be able to sustain itself once the bailout money drys up?

[bigmat59]

When is the next update?

I'm from France.

[bestgtor22]

Dent is right just look at Japan who was supposed to be unstoppable they said in the late 80's and they have been bottom bouncing ever since due to aging demographics with a huge loss in their market and real estate and the rest due to demographics. We will be in Depression soon.

[ABETRMAN]

@bestgtor22

We Are In Depression Now.

Dents Timing Is Bad But His projections Seem To Be Spot On.

[eliasmouawad]

@ABETRMAN Search for "DEBT SCARY COMPARISONS"

[ktseng1]

he is as good or better than most forecaster

[chardnj]

destiny666,,,,hahaha going up or going down...he just trying to be a smart guy..forgive him...I wonder how much he makes this.guy..

[athertg]

DOW seems to be levelling off. It's managed very little increase in the last month. It could start down from here soon. It will be interesting to see the year end earnings as they come through over the coming weeks. ALCOA have already disappointed.

[bakabusu]

mr dent, remember when u said the Dow will be 35,000 by 2008....

Im listening to u saying that the market should start to fall after early jan but if it does not.....I dont know if i should listen to u anymore

[hsdentfinancial]

bakabusu,

We did forecast that the Dow could reach as high as 32k-40k. This forecast is from the late 1990s, and was based on our view that the economy would continue to grow for over 10 years. The economy did grow as forecast, but the markets didn't! In '05 we said there were only a few years left for growth. In '06 we lowered our top forecast because there were only a few more years before we saw the economy, and therefore the markets, turning.

Rodney Johnson, President, HS Dent

[eliasmouawad]

Search for "CIA NEW FIASCO" amazing

[destiny6666]

wasn't the Dow going to hit 30-40,000 in 2009 Harry?

this is hilarious !!!

:)

[karenbcz22]

Destiny:

I thought you were a heckler. But I just googled "harry Dent DOW 20,000" ... and sure enough!

Ugh!!

:>(

[karenbcz22]

In fact, he said DOW 20,000 in 2009!

Ugh!

:>(

[hsdentfinancial]

karenbcz22,

As replied to bakabusu, we were forecasting markets much higher. Our analysis starts with demographics (people at each age and stage of life), then goes to economic change, and finally to the markets. Throughout the 90s and 00s we had more spenders who did drive the economy higher. It did not, as we anticipated, drive the stock market higher, it instead showed up in housing, our incredible appetite for imports (leading to foreign country growth) and commodities.

Rodney Johnson

[alstu4u]

I agree there is a correction yet to come. Interest rates at near 0% gets the consumer to spend. More people are overspent with huge debt. In Canada, people are spending 140% of their yearly salery. Stats show housing is up for Nov 73% from last year, with first time home buyers leading. Now the average home owner payes 70% of their salery to their mortgage. Guess what'll happen when they get in trouble.

[destiny6666]

poor Harry is running out of time for his prediction to come true ... good old 0Nostramus ... sounds on a fence a little in this video ...

2 scenarions Harry ... the market will go up ... or it will go down ...

might wanna check your charts ...

sooo funny ...

:)

[davfritz]

Listen to this guy people..... he is genuine

[InterestingBoredom]

But, but, but... green shoots!

[gamblerjag]

why don't cnbc and the others get all people who said what the market was going to do and when they are wrong bring them back on t.v. and say you were wrong... they would never do that.... ..

[mikecatadjuster]

Years ago I enjoyed the book 'Future Shock' and I enjoyed Harry Dent's offerings as well. But pulling the trigger on something and using predictive information to make money is something I haven't done. The only thing I did was sell my house early on from the information I gathered from my readings. That paid dividens. I am intrigued, however, at the possibility of seeing into the future, thus making huge sums of money as a result. As stated, though, it's sometimes hard to pull the trigger.

[karenbcz22]

WHY does the media say the "stimulus is working".

Actually, the stimulus didn't help the economy.

It only made the stock market go up.

People are STILL losing jobs and homes.

Home values are still dropping.

Unemployment is at record highs.

Yet, we are in "recovery" BECAUSE ... the stock market is going up????

That makes no sense.

That's sort of a lie, isn't it?

Isn't the public being mislead?

[DonPaulPro]

I suspect that a weak dollar, hidden inflation, and flawed/fraudulent bank accounting is the best explanation for the market. The banks have hundreds of billions or trillions of absolute garbage commercial loans that are being accounted for assets.

[joelhoo1]

this dude is on the Ball nice work keep it coming

[karenbcz22]

Since this video, the market has continued to GO UP ... to DOW 10,300.

Unbelievable!

I don't get it.

How can gold AND the market be going up simultaneously??

[karenbcz22]

Someone please explain to me why the market is STILL GOING UP, while people are jobless aand still losing their homes?????

[Trialpha1000]

The market is still going up because people at wall street think 14 to 16 months ahead.But I forsee this high unemployment rate which I see going beyond 14% will catch up with wall street somewhere between May and November of 2010.When wall street sees unemployment getting worse there start selling off.

[morphia001]

World War 3 coming soon.

[DonPaulPro]

WW3 will start in October 2010.

[florgat91]

Recession is over - Dow to 15000 - Great Depression averted - thank you President Obama ..

[Trialpha1000]

Guess again.Unemployment figures for October will be out the first week of November and unemployment is expected to be above 10%.Also a total of 100 banks(mostly small banks)have failed since Obama took office.The number of people defaulting on loans have gone up.Last department stores are bracing for the worst Christmas shoping season in decades.

[Trialpha1000]

Also last summer it was posted on the Drudge Report that Walmart is expecting this seasons Christmas shoping to be so bad that everything that can be posted under ten dollars will be.Sure enuff I was in a Walmart store last night and I saw prices on alot of stuff under ten dollars.Clothes priced at listings that are outragously low.Walmart knows whats coming.

[b5kalad]

I do not know you trying to be funny or foolish.

[shawnaspen25]

Hope your joking!

[Ellipsis10]

"we been expecting a late market rally into late summer early fall"...Harry are you F'n kidding me?? On your March 09 video update you said to sell your stocks in JULY!!, On your September 11th video update you said.."Sell NOW, our studies indicate that market will begin to decline"... why should i believe you now??? YOU WERE DEAD WRONG!!!! you don't know SHIT!!

[30percentplusreturns]

Dead wrong? This guy is dead right you moron. Nobody can pinpoint the exact day when to sell. For this guy to say sell in july and september is pretty darn amazing. Someone like you will never make money in markets. I know your type. Your the type who want to catch perfect tops and bottoms and goes all in trying to do just that. Obviously you are agitated and upset because you have been losing money.

[thebigleone]

I don't any business that is hiring. No jobs for college grads.. The housing market is still tanking. International lunatics are acquiring weapons of mass destruction. Russia wants a middle east war to boost their oil revenue. California is taxing marijuana to get some revenue. Our politicians are irresponsible. The market is a white knucle ride and I'm getting the hell out.

[burntoastman]

Dent ant the rest of us investing are trying to gauge where the market is going, right?

Well the mind of the market is between 12 to 14 years old and not terribly sain. (The Crowd) Try to time that! It's like herding cats.

[sticksofkansas]

I read some of the comments posted and have concern with some individuals who acted on one man's word of advice.

Just to offer kind comment, the person you should trust first with your investment prospectives is FIRST your paid financial advisor and SECOND you yourself. You should also listen to the other economists (the bulls) and derive your final sentiment after listening to both. Personally, I subscribe to Realmoney SILVER from Jim Cramer's firm and it works for me.

-Thanks,

[jasonpham2009]

just want to say a word from my learning experience. Follow what the market is going to do NOT what you are expecting the market will do and please dont blame Dent for your losses. At the end of the day, it's neither the fundamental nor technical reasons that move the market, it's human that driving this carzy.

[lost70s]

MOre Defaults on mortgage COOL... I believe he is wrong on the stimulus money ..... From what I read not much has hit the street / public .. the reason the market is up is because of the money that has been printed / loaned / given to wall street .

He along with others said the banking industry would have shut down .. I say good .. it should have. Then maybe people would realize how crocked the fractional reserve system is . Americans need more pain . Only way to learn.

[Romulus100BC]

I'd wish H.Dent would read these comments, but in all likelyhood he doesn't. This time I took his book at face value and did follow his recommendations to sell everything before or during March.. Needless to say my portfolio bombed. Conclusion: I no longer accept his arguments and have shelved his book!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[billlajoie]

Something to think about - Why was "The Coming Great Depression" delivery in the stores delayed by over 6 months

[NMGomes]

Isn't this the fellow that predicted the market would top 40,000 before "correcting"???

[StanTrenton]

I know how difficult it is accurately, consistently predict the shortterm moves in the stock market. I respect Harry for his original demographics work. Refer to his Spending Wave chart and observe how closely it correlates to the stock market. Reference this, the next long term up-move in the stock market begins 2021, with a smaller up move in 2014-2017. Now to 2021, just expect maximum uncertainty and minimum predictive accuracy.

[rustybenelli]

I agree with mattthebillionaire. I noticed right away his less confident nature in his presentation. he was more confident in his prior predictions.  He must be catching a lot of heat from people out this makret rally(people following his advice). Time will tell if he is right. You have to admit he did predict this meltdown reasonably well.

[garybees]

Exciting times!!!

[ChiroKirk]

Hold on to your hats folks - the economy is going to be increasingly challenging... for the next DECADE! I think the working tax payers will be having to bail out the FHA within the next 3 years! Our government is foolish enough to think that they can spend (read steal) their way out of a depression.

[30percentplusreturns]

Dents book is pretty much spot on. He called this rally and nobody can predict it perfectly. The point is he called the rally and hes right when he says it will collapse.

[mcourtmiller]

also i just learned that the clock really does go back to 12 on 1/1/10. that's when the new FASB rules are in effect - back to mark to market accounting! bye bye banks, and bye bye rally. and you know the carnage will begin well in advance. perhaps any day now...

[mcourtmiller]

don't back off from your on your original thesis, Harry. this market is looking pretty ripe to me according to the indicators i follow.

[orangedac]

I notice the Sept 2009 update has totally vanished, even from the hsdent website.

What the...

Is this the way financial gurus portray their predictions? They only show the 'right' ones and delete the wrong ones.

[MrMichaelAThompson]

Pretty much Orange. Fundamentally his demographics idea is pretty much right on. His problem mostly has to do with trying to use it as a crystal ball. Example: As time goes on there will be a LOT more demand for caskets in the US. Does anyone doubt this? Of course not. But trying to pick when the demand will peak, down to the month, is outside a mortals skill set... I think. :)

[MrMichaelAThompson]

There was a steep jump in the Dow/Nasdaq right after the 1998/99 recession that was VERY steep! There is no reason to believe that people, and when I say people I mean fund managers, won't try to pile on the Dow as they did on 99/00. In fact you are already seeing that happen right now. Just give that some thought.

[MrMichaelAThompson]

I would also like to add that virtually all the major corrections happened when the S&P was over 20x trailing 12 month earnings. Today they are around 16 and, if you throw out banks with there unreliable stats, much lower then that. That, plus the previous point, seems to tell me we still have a LOT more running room! Again, just something to think about. :)

[JimboWHO]

Harry, you're killing us. Why do some of us PAY YOU for insight & forecasts that you willingly give away to the world for free?

[randybenham]

Your doing a great job Harry! It sounds to me that all the negative comments are coming from mindless wanna-get-rich quick yuppies!

[mattthebillionaire]

randy, you sound like a mindless liberal, the guy was blatantly wrong, won't admit it, is clearly lying and insecure in his current video, deleted his other one and you're calling peoples statements negative b/c they are an accurate analysis of this guys mess up...are you joking...and until you know who you're dealing with, make sure your child like name calling is based on something, Harry, perhaps your analysis should do this, too.

Thanks.

[randybenham]

Forgive me for the name calling, that's beyond me! Open your eyes, look around, what's supporting the markets??? What's driving the markets???...It's the false sense of security that our government is creating, driven by the media, they are creating a black hole that will implode! As for Harry and his analysis, he has come far closer than any of others. If you don't like what he says go for it and throw your money into the markets...and I hope you can sleep well at night...good luck!

[wingrider170]

In the past government help for companies has only been a few tens of billions at most. History shows that the government has never been able to bring the economy to growth. It only shifts the financial pain somewhere else. Everything is bid and ask and next year when the money market accounts that valued more than the S&P500 at one point makes it back into the stock market there could be a false doubling of stocks, then correction.

[orangedac]

You have that wild, panicked look in your eyes Harry - the kind that says "I'm caught in a short squeeze with a big margin call".

I sense fear in your voice and body language.

I just acted on your mid September prediction and now you are singing a different tune. This sucks. At least have the balls to stick to your predictions instead of hitting the panic button and back-tracking.

I swear I need to find a one armed financial guru so he can never say 'on the other hand'.

[Nuanceqwest]

orangedac

Nah dude........... you're too funny. I cant stop laughing.

[burntoastman]

i follow Harry S Dent and a few others like Jim Sinclair, Jim Rogers and Martin Weiss to name a few. I then take the information back and make up my own mind on what will unfold more long term than short term as it is my money and i am responsable for my investments and cannot let one persons educated guesses determine how to invest. No ones right all the time, especially trading.

[inequil1026]

Check out the supplemental financial program (money the FED is paying the primary dealers for excess reserves that they are holding at the fed) the primary dealers are using to pump money into the market after leveraging it 10 to 100x. The money is getting into the markets on Sept 26, Oct 1, Oct 8, Oct 15, Oct 22, Oct 29 with amounts between 12 to 24 bill $. Check out the charts.

As long as this is going on, the market will stay up. When those vapors are gone, the market will go down. Stay put.

[rocktube999]

Hi, I'm trying to learn as much as I can...where can I find info on supplemental financial program? Are you saying that after 10/29 the Fed will stop pumping $ in the market?

[campfiar]

Really starting to lose faith in HS Dent. Was all in due to Harry's Dow 30,000 prediction (Next Great Bubble Boom) when the market tanked in 2008. Got all out July 2009 when Harry (in a video like this one) backtracked on his target of DOW 10K. If licensed advisors made these kinds of mistakes they would go to jail.

[bwolfenson]

I got out of the market on the basis of your prediction of a Dow of 3800- 4000. Now what ?

[b5kalad]

I have been averaging out of the market (going to cash) since August. I believe HS dent overall is correct but it is hard to know exactly when to sell (or buy for that matter).

[LakeviewG]

Appreciate the update Harry. Your timing may be off slightly but a major downturn in the stock market is inevitable. The economy and financial system is a mess and is getting worse. Only a matter of short time before the stock market reflects reality. The higher this goes the quicker and harder the fall will be.

[hewjet]

Harry you are talking about what is already known. These are no longer surprises as the onset of sub-prime was. What is known cannot move the market from where it is. BTW your body language and stuttering delivery means you should stay off the silver screen.

[drfergs]

Let's face it Harry. You don't have a clue what is happening or what is going to happen. Your book is a crock of shit and you look ever more foolish!

[SilverRose09]

Check the next scenario. You are all of the sudden infront of lion which is schewing a delicious piece of meat . At that moment you are just thinking the best way to get out . Your brain start analyzing all possible solutions to get out of there alive. However, you don't know how the lion will react by your scaping. So your insticts will follow the lions' smooths movements in order to hide or to run. No body knows in which direction or when this economic system will collapse..neither do you...

[ThruTheCeiling]

Easy to guess you are an Australian by the brazen tone of your response. The book is certainly not a "a crock of shit" as you so eloquently say, but rather a valid opinion in unprecedented times.

[bcarter79]

It will keep rising as long as there is nowhere else for the money to go. Nobody wants it in a bank earning nothing, and there are no deals because the banks aren't lending. When the banks go back to lending, there is a backlog of deals that can go forward and the money will shift there. The banks are even putting their cash there to grow and offset some of the bloodbath yet to come.

[LondonCrusader]

Sir Many thanks for this latest posting. I know many will appreciate the insight and views.

--

It appeared to me in early Spring, that 2010 was a write-off year. The only question I have is whether ANY sort of stablisation can occur during 2011? Personally, I find it doubtful even growth of 0.5% can occur by then.

The fundamentals are dire, when the market breaks out of its current 'rally of delusion', the fall will be hard and fast.

Brace for impact.

[rrcruiser]

DOW 3000 is a predicted for 2010-2011. The future looks blead. Best to be conservative and unless you can afford to lose, play it safe.for a year or two. I hate to lose out on gains but better that than losing 50% of portfollio value.

[Beabaggage]

when the last bear gets scared it is time to sell, he issued a sell all by mid sept now backing off, sells this new ETF which is all long! ridiculous.

his Macro analysis is incredible, his micro timing like most is awful. still holding on to my sds, mzz, qid, that is what saved my portfolio last year thru the burst, protecting it now and mostly cash and CN stocks.

[stretchsje]

@3:45, how you say the economy is recovering "because of the stimulus" and then go on to point out that many of the most significant underlying problems causing the economic contraction have NOT been addressed? I really enjoy your books and study of demographics, but you're wrong in your presumption that government can somehow create the wealth to recover- let alone sustain- an economy. The stimulus bill has prevented (postponed) the actual recovery- the reset of assets to market value.

[SmartBoxWeb]

it's all about timing. it's going down.

[mattthebillionaire]

so in other words, two months ago it was DOW 3000, not it's going to continue to go upyou s/b ashamed of yourself. -