Peak Oil

[Cleisthenis]

The OPEC crisis in the early 70's and subsequent economic downturn also had the effect of hiding the fact that US domestic crude production had peaked. Globally we're already over the peak. Because of the recession demand has dropped. Oil is traded on the futures commodities markets months and years ahead. Since things are going to get a lot worse before they get better, don't expect Oil to bounce back until later this year. If you think PO is just about the $/barrel you are sadly mistaken.

[boomeros]

Oil is down to $40 per barrel and sometimes under... how is that peak oil thing working out for you all now?

[trevdogg100]

oil is up to almost 80$ a barrel. How is that smug satisfaction thing working out for you now?

[boomeros]

it's working out just fine. $70 to $80 per barrel isn't too bad considering how much money the Americans have printed in the past year.

[beaumec242]

we are going to die so that 's great

[OnlyOneUmmah]

The NWO can go **** itself! Wake up!

[falkminuteman]

lies lies and lies

oil is the democracy killer

no one is driving the car as they used to look at the aaa report

they want to wipe out the middle class

dictatorship in on the rise

fuck the new world order

[kentucy9999]

I was on Wikepedia today re: oil sands. 18-22 out of the pit but overall cost is 36-40 barrel when refining is taken into consideration. For all the "doom and gloom" people. There have been challenges to the human race for hundreds of years which have been overcome.......many alot stiffer than "peak oil." I'll sleep well tonite. Least of my worries. Ever hear of technology?

[Cleisthenis]

Oil sands here in Alberta will never reach more than 5 mbpd. Tripling the current level three times to 3 mbpd is unsustainable and impractical given current lack of infrastructure and strains on fresh water and natural gas supplies.

We might be able to do 2-3 over a period of several decades or more, but it is a drop in a bucket to the projected demand of over 120 mbpd in 15 to 20 years of business as usual.

Sleep ignorant,

Sleep tight.

[kentucy9999]

Ignorant of what? We'll adapt...........I'm not worried if we don't. Nothing you or I can do about it dipsh*t. Who cares? What are you gonna do about it?

[Cleisthenis]

Ignorant if you think that technology will save us from the potentially disastrous consequences of this. What can we do? Beyond being a prepared for the impacts in advance, and even just having knowledge and foresight, spreading the awareness and getting your local government to act and prepare as well is important.

[thearmin]

uh oh.....

[DigitalSelfImage]

I love this song, what is it called?

[boomeros]

Do you honestly think we are running out of oil? Not going to happen. We will eventually quit using oil when something better suited comes along. We didn't get out of the stone age because we ran out of rocks, we didn't stop using horses because we ran out of horses.

[Cleisthenis]

We're never going to run out of oil though boomeros. The problem is in the very near future, we won't be able to supply global demand. To borrow and paraphrase a political meme, "It's economics, stupid". :)

[boomeros]

In the 19th century when whale oil became scarce and demand exceeded supply that is when petro based oil came into being. As long as the markets are left to deal with supply and demand in as free a way as possible, we will be fine.

[Cleisthenis]

I'm afraid you're dead wrong. There is no new source of oil to meet the growing demand in the west and the exponential growth of demand in the east. The Alberta oil sands will be a guaranteed source for decades to come, but production will never be greater than 4 or 5 mdb.

[Cleisthenis]

Not nearly enough to replace middle eastern output in the long run. If the peak doesn't actually happen for another 10 or 15 years, it should be just enough time to adapt our economies to rail and more regional and localized economies.

[Cleisthenis]

If it is happening as we speak, there will be no saving grace from the unpredictable and potentially devastating effects on our way of life. Keep in mind that it only will take a supply shortfall of between 1 and 5 percent to trigger an extended recession; or worse.

[boomeros]

I don't think I said oil would be the replacement for oil. Seems redundant. The oilsands of alberta is already putting out 1 million b/day. It will be very feasible to exceed 4 or 5 mbd in 10 years or so. Hugo Chavez is sitting on huge reserves of the same type of oil. Oil Shale is everywhere. Brazil seems to have become independent of oil imports with ethanol. Given enough capital investment there are lots of prospects for energy production, as long as the free market is allowed to work.

[Cleisthenis]

I appreciate all of that... except for that it will take 15 to 20 years at a minimum for alberta to scale up to 5 mbd. If it can sustain that intensity to begin with. You haven't addressed the problem of demand yet boomer.

[Cleisthenis]

While you didn't say that oil would be the replacement, your original comment re: whale oil would imply that is what you meant. As far as free market economics goes, the foundation of free market is an informed consumer. If it's true that we are nearing the peak of production, consumers as a whole should be given viable alternatives.

[boomeros]

I stand corrected on the replacing oil with oil comment. I do believe that it is very feasible that what we call "conventional oil" can be replaced with unconventional oil and other sources of energy. Off shore oil will continue to be exploited, areas in the artic, oilsands, oil shale, ethanol, nuclear, natural gas, coal, etc etc. As well as improvements in energy efficiency.

[Cleisthenis]

In the context of global production increased exploration and production in the areas of off-shore, artic, the oil sands, and oil shale will never replace a stagnant 'easy' oil production from saudi arabia. Economic growth equals ever more intense energy input.

[Cleisthenis]

Peak oil throws traditional free-market economics out the window. The 'market' is not a natural phenomenon. It is an abstract system of artificial mechanisms that are subject to manipulation but known and unknown forces, man-made and otherwise. While the above-mentioned sources will certainly 'soften' any blow of the energy crisis, they will not abate it.

[boomeros]

"the market" is very natural. It is as natural as private property, as natural as ownership of a bone by a dog.

[Cleisthenis]

Perhaps, but the economic, financial and cultural institutions that 'operate' it are not.

[boomeros]

How do you define easy oil? In 1900, to be feasible a copper mine had to have %10 copper ore, now it requires only %1 copper ore to make money, thanks to new tech and capital accumulation. Oilsands projects did not make money until 20 years ago, now they make money. Now they are easy oil. Actually our economy requires less energy input per unit of output compared to 30 or 40 years ago. We are becoming more efficient.

[Cleisthenis]

"Easy oil", is easily defined as the stuff that costs the cheapest to produce and refine. I.e. Middle Eastern oil costs less then 5 dollars a barrel to produce while oil sands and deep sea/arctic sources need prices above $40-50 to be profitable.

[boomeros]

but if it is gone as you say, then it is no longer part of the economic picture. Like the whales and their oil. We always exploit the easiest deposits first. Oilsands is profitable at less than $20/b the last I heard. Depends on capital cost of the plant. It is good to have an intelligent conversation on here for a change.

[Cleisthenis]

To be clear, it isn't 'gone', rather the 2nd half of the peak curve means 2-5% decreases in max. prod. per year. US, ENG and RUS have seen this domestically already. When talking about reserves you have to consider oil sands outside of the global curve. As mentioned before, there is a potential for a hundreds years or more of oil sands in alberta - environmental and social costs aside - that will be profitable but never able to put much of a dent in global demand in excess of 80 - 100 mbd.

[boomeros]

Demand would be unlimited if the price of energy was zero, but it isn't. Therefore demand will match supply, thanks to the price system of the free market. If the supply of oil is so scarce that it can not meet our needs for energy it will be replaced by the next best alternative. That is the way economics has always worked and will always work.

[Cleisthenis]

The transition will probably occur beyond the capacity of our economy to adapt without disrupting quality of life with massive recessions. The free market failed in the 1930's and in Argentina, because it was never truly free. What you're advocating could be potentially catastrophic as the model doesn't take into account the levelling off and subsequent rapid decline of supply, at a threshold far to sudden for our heavily dependent and intricate global economy to adapt to.

[boomeros]

Well... I am not too worried, we have been running out of oil since I can remember, and it hasn't happened yet. The economist Julian Simons made money betting that not only would we not run out of essential commodities, but they would become cheaper was well. He was right then, and he is still right.

[Cleisthenis]

Which is why oil and gasoline is so much cheaper now. Just wait until the summer driving season. I'm sure we'll be breaking records again. I wouldn't bet short on crude. not now. Not ever. That fact is since we first drilled for oil over 150 years ago, we've been running out. The implications of reaching the half way point globally, as the US did in the early 70's, will be potentially catastrophic. Sound risk mitigation begs us to act.

[boomeros]

At one time it didn't pay for me to buy a more efficient gas furnace or to put more insulation in my house or install better windows, but increases in the price of nat-gas and decreases in the cost of doing the above mentioned improvements have made it the right thing to do economically speaking. The same will happen with hybrid cars, ethanol/gasoline cars, etc.

[Cleisthenis]

I appreciate your energy efficiency consciousness at home, but the changes that need to be made now to mitigate economic collapse from peak oil are massive. A tenfold investment in bio-fuels, public and rail cargo transit need to be made now to avert disaster and head this thing off.

[zzbullan]

your so wrong the world will go threw a tough time and we will come out the other side smiling. no doubt there will be a decade or two of depression but after that the human race will kepp on growing (its what we do best). so to all of you out there who want to get rich. invest in unranium now and keep doing so until oil starts to dry up. then sell you stock at an inflated price and trade in the money for gold. if history has tought you anything is that gold will always be valuable

[Cleisthenis]

Please rate the video and spread the word. Do check out mkalus video response; a very enlightening discussion between Preston Manning and David Suzuki.

[neverknwo]

Thanks mandot of GNN who posted this link in GNN's forum for us to watch and comment on.