Anybody else notice that there are 13 digits, therefore making it 1.48 TRILLION not billion. Derren is so good at persuasion he made you believe the odds were smaller than they really were.
Odds on this happening in the real world? Unless a mistake is made in the execution of this trick, it's 1/1 since Derren is a professional trickster. You rock Derren, Keep on blowing minds!
That the numbers on the photos match the probability number is inherent in the fact they picked the right photo. That the envelopes match the photos is also inherent. Remember Derren can remember the position of every card in a deck, so handing out the envelopes seemingly randomly, that is not the case. He knew who would get which envelope.
The trick here is how he got the people to select a photo with the same initials, combined with getting them to stand on the right circle.
Anyone know how he did the order bit? Only guess I have is that he has 24 different ways to show order, one for each order, including that red envelope, that appear to be as forward-thinking as pulling off said red envelope. I mean, he never said before they got in that order, "The order I've predicted is in this red envelope here." If they'd got into a different order, he might easily have pulled out a card from his pocket, or from behind the white-board, etc... Any other ideas?
I do notice that, despite the fact that the envelopes are shuffled, it is indeed Derren who hands them out, and he doesn't seem to hand them out in random order. I'd imagine there's something tipping him off as to which envelope is which and hands them out accordingly.
He doesn't need to be able to predict which horse will win. If you've seen enough Derren, you know he can convince the window workers to give him money even for a losing ticket.
@dugw15 i dont think you understand, the issue here is that the lady was given the ticket before hand, so it means that Derren picked out the winning horse prior to the horses racing, handed it over to the lady and she held it all along up until the horse crossed the finish line. Somethings afoot here, and its wicked!!!!
Didn't Derren leave out one part of the math when calculating his odds? He had 4 "random" envelopes. That would be a permutation of 4. (4x3x2x1). Then the 500 pics. (500x499x498x497) then the 4 spots for them to stand, again (4x3x2x1). SO, if my math is correct, he sold himself way short. He said the odds of all that happening were 1 in 1.48 billion, but if you add in the envelopes, you get 1 in 35.57 TRILLION. Can someone verify?
No, he is correct. He didn't specify which way the envelopes were going to be passed out. Given that they were passed out that way, he was calculating the odds that the pictures they chose would be the same.
Huge fan of derren but this is fairly simple for the most part. Though this is one of the rare few clips I can say that about his stuff. He realized that they would subconciously pick the people with their initials, planted the pictures with those people at certain places in that jumble so they would be closer or farther away and put the numbers on there so that theyd work out in advance. The confusing part is how they got the right envelopes. He may have marked them so he knew who to give what
perhaps this segment is quite separate from the pyramid selection that he later explains. what if this little show, was just an exercise in his own abilities.
Hypnosis used to control which picture they got? I bet they didn't stand in the right circles the first time lol Derren would be more convincing if there weren't so many camera edits.
but the odds for that as he said would be 1.48billion.. so.. unless he did it for years upon end with different people from around the world then ye he might have done
well you have no idea how many of the other pictures that match their initials, so if it just so happened that there were only those 4, he could trick their subconscience into picking the right picture. Then comes the only part I don't know how, the lineup... maybe the order the picture are closer to where they started, so he could predict how fast they would've found them, but I dno. Rest is easy for him here on. Numbers etc. he can now place as he likes!
at 1:31 derren mutters very quickly something that sounds lyk 'thats the one' just after he says but not impossible. also at 1:57 this is probably nuthin but he stumbles very briefly after sayin 'dent let that influence you, some' and it sounds like he mutters 'initial' or at least the first two syllabals of the word initial an i think the key to this working was in influencing them to pick the ppl wiv the same initials.
yeah I love Derren Brown as well!! keeps making my day nicer! But best thing I think.. is that he mixes all arts of simple sleight-of-hand, manipulation, behavioral knowledge, NLP, and other just nicely together. It is this that makes that you always keep wandering! I hopes he keeps on doing this!!
** The wonder of life is to wander what life is **
There's always going to be some people who take magicians and mentalists a little too seriously. Look at all the chumps that believed Uri Gellar was a psychic. This is a mentalist's trick, not NLP.
i believe derren is what is called as a mentalist. he deals with mentalism. an illusionist would be more befitting of a stage performer. derren has done stage, but uses mentalist techniques.
oh and one more thing i certainly do not aoubt in his abbilities, no magics just ming illusions. in one show he said that he is psycho-illusionist that's all. and i'm sorry if i spelled any of words wrong xD
what can i say he amazes me every time i see him. now there's even in slovenia show with derren brown half an hour long :) i watch it every week. he's just amazing
Magic IS illusionism. Magic does not exist, it's a 'trick of the mind'. The System was a brilliant program, but I don't see how ANYONE can mistake it for the complex art of NLP. It is a clever maths trick, and if you can't understand that simple truth, then you don't really understand The System.
This is not NLP. What most people forget is that Derren is a very accomplished magician and even says in his book that he does not agree with the ideas supporters of NLP have. This is nothing more than a magic trick.
I've been trying to tell people this for ages, but they wont listen. It's annoying the way everyone just presumes it's NLP when it is clearly not. Did you enjoy the book btw? I think im on my sixth or seventh read of it! :D
i'm a fan of derren brown, dont get me wrong. but i wonder how many times he gets his experiments wrong b4 he get it right, and then shows us all the right one.
Indeed. If you wish to understand magic tricks, you have to realize that there's many ways to perform them. Derren is adept at fooling (most of) his audience about höw he does whät he does. Which is a necessary skill for a magician.
I'm a Master Practitioner of NLP, whatever the hell that means. Agreed they're not really worth the paper they are printed on. I'm a Life Coach now too. I mean who can call themselves a Life Coach?! I fall back heavily on my Clinical Hypnotherapy qualification a lot. Derren alludes to slight use of NLP, he's also done a course and just slated it.
Clray: I don't see any _real_ NLP tricks here, i'm not an expert. But, i'll point out some of the facts though: at 00:58 he clearly says "you'll have an envelope .. TWO". And he gives the guy two finders at 01:31. Now, he also does this with number #1 on guy #1. We don't see the whole thing, this is just 10 minutes. (odds of 24/1 -> 50/50 on where the remaining two people stand)
What you are doing - like most "NLP people" like to do - is called "fishing for data": making up a theory which fits the facts. However, observed that a great number of theories can be made to fit that way. One could claim a causal connection practically from any of his actions to the observed outcome. To give strength theory, I'd expect to see statistical studies which confirm that telling a guy "TWO" in such a situation tends to influence his behavior like you suppose. Where are such studies?
also he clearly and regularly "admits" to using nlp, although i agree it has had poor results in advertising, auto suggestion works very well in marketing, read blink, very interesting, certainly not bs as you say
Quote from Derren: "I've attended NLP courses and things like that, and although there's some interesting and useful aspects to them, they're generally so evangelically packaged and full of self-fulfilling nonsense that it put me off."
There you go, he admits using suggestion techniques and distances himself from NLP crap explicitly.
Why would he distance himself from NLP ("self-fulfilling nonsense") if he thought it was worth endorsing? You are jumping to conclusions in assuming he uses NLP. What he says is that there are some (!) aspects he found interesting; if he believed in effectiveness of NLP as a coherent method, surely he wouldn't put it that way. Indeed, he could make nice money promoting NLP - which YOU do, but not him.
i wouldnt call it pseudoscientific at all, theres lots of evidence to show it works, watch derrens show, something wicked this way comes and see wot you think, fairly conclusive in my humble opinion
I find it disturbing how people associate DB with NLP, even though he has never claimed to use NLP in his tricks. The whole point of the show was to demonstrate that the HIDDEN "behind the scenes" facts do matter a lot and we ought to consider simple alternative explanations to what is going on. Attempting to explain DB's tricks by resorting to NLP - and only interpreting his NON-HIDDEN televised actions - is neither simple nor necessary.
clray: If you think that the four experts made a free choice, when they were asked to, then you don't see what he's doing. As he passed the envelopes, i'm almost certain he says 'foreign bloke' instead of 'four envelopes'.. I still need to take a good look at the whole thing. (He also knew these people before hand, they were interviewed and asked to come to this event, the segment is part of a 50 minute show called "The System".)
It is much more likely that the pictures were prearranged or that he uses gimmicked envelopes or that these folks were not the only group who was invited to the show or that the whole is a stitch-up of not so related scenes (explained to the participants)... Keep in mind that THIS show was about fooling people by cherry-picking from data. Not about any NLP bs.
NLP = Neuro-linguistic programming, a pseudoscientific theory whose proponents like to claim that you can influence people's decisions by "subtle" "subliminal" messages (such as mispronounced words). However, when tested properly, both NLP and subliminal advertising fail miserably. Thus, NLP reduces to a money-making scheme for "experts" who offer NLP training and sell NLP books (who may be either self-deluded or fraudulent).
Actually, a well researched branch of linguistic pshychology that is proven to be useful in treating a number of different conditions and generating positive behavioural change. unfortunately, it has been hijacked and misused by the 'motivational' market who use it for commercial gain.
Anybody else notice that there are 13 digits, therefore making it 1.48 TRILLION not billion. Derren is so good at persuasion he made you believe the odds were smaller than they really were.
rockboy679 5 months ago
Odds on this happening in the real world? Unless a mistake is made in the execution of this trick, it's 1/1 since Derren is a professional trickster. You rock Derren, Keep on blowing minds!
Backyardplay 8 months ago
ok, only way i can explain this is post-hypnotic effect....
langeveld8 1 year ago
That the numbers on the photos match the probability number is inherent in the fact they picked the right photo. That the envelopes match the photos is also inherent. Remember Derren can remember the position of every card in a deck, so handing out the envelopes seemingly randomly, that is not the case. He knew who would get which envelope.
The trick here is how he got the people to select a photo with the same initials, combined with getting them to stand on the right circle.
DustyStew 1 year ago 2
never stops to amaze me
boredom62 1 year ago
it could be real....but the odds are..incredible and could be fake meaning...that all this was directed.....
iuli1993 1 year ago
We are influenced by all the things in the world.
gchain 1 year ago
Fake, duh...
1nspirator 1 year ago
Anyone know how he did the order bit? Only guess I have is that he has 24 different ways to show order, one for each order, including that red envelope, that appear to be as forward-thinking as pulling off said red envelope. I mean, he never said before they got in that order, "The order I've predicted is in this red envelope here." If they'd got into a different order, he might easily have pulled out a card from his pocket, or from behind the white-board, etc... Any other ideas?
MrGallagher 1 year ago
I do notice that, despite the fact that the envelopes are shuffled, it is indeed Derren who hands them out, and he doesn't seem to hand them out in random order. I'd imagine there's something tipping him off as to which envelope is which and hands them out accordingly.
MrGallagher 1 year ago
the system was one of best shows ever made
entaroduai 2 years ago 10
He doesn't need to be able to predict which horse will win. If you've seen enough Derren, you know he can convince the window workers to give him money even for a losing ticket.
/watch?v=II_-QcW4Q4I
dugw15 2 years ago 13
he picks the winning horse at the end of this episode
he doesnt use the same trick he did at the dog track =p
zidex 2 years ago
@dugw15 i dont think you understand, the issue here is that the lady was given the ticket before hand, so it means that Derren picked out the winning horse prior to the horses racing, handed it over to the lady and she held it all along up until the horse crossed the finish line. Somethings afoot here, and its wicked!!!!
Gwambua 1 year ago
this still doesnt show how i can win in horse races lol good trick to ponder about tho
ezname1234 2 years ago
check out the whole show,it can be found on youtube
Matzes 2 years ago
@ezname1234 you totally missed the point of the show... ;) well I guess you didn t watch the whole thing...you should,its great =)
Matzes 1 year ago
I loved the math in this one.
johntkucz 2 years ago
the principle behind The System (essentially confirmation bias) is what is behind belief in spiritualism or homeopathic and alternative medicine.
simosystem1 2 years ago
Didn't Derren leave out one part of the math when calculating his odds? He had 4 "random" envelopes. That would be a permutation of 4. (4x3x2x1). Then the 500 pics. (500x499x498x497) then the 4 spots for them to stand, again (4x3x2x1). SO, if my math is correct, he sold himself way short. He said the odds of all that happening were 1 in 1.48 billion, but if you add in the envelopes, you get 1 in 35.57 TRILLION. Can someone verify?
kopfgeldjagar 2 years ago 2
No, he is correct. He didn't specify which way the envelopes were going to be passed out. Given that they were passed out that way, he was calculating the odds that the pictures they chose would be the same.
mikecreeth 2 years ago
I like permutations and combinations, though. Nice number-crunching!
johntkucz 2 years ago
Huge fan of derren but this is fairly simple for the most part. Though this is one of the rare few clips I can say that about his stuff. He realized that they would subconciously pick the people with their initials, planted the pictures with those people at certain places in that jumble so they would be closer or farther away and put the numbers on there so that theyd work out in advance. The confusing part is how they got the right envelopes. He may have marked them so he knew who to give what
thecolonel981 2 years ago
he didnt hand the envelopes out in order therefore that part of the trick is not random as he handed them the correct envelope!!!
76639 3 years ago
Phenomenal stuff! Derren hands down is my favorite performance/magician/mentalist.
Dleerium 3 years ago
If he uses NLP to get them to pick the pictures and stand where they stand, how does that explain his horse picking system?
netspectre101 3 years ago
hmm maybe it doesnt?
perhaps this segment is quite separate from the pyramid selection that he later explains. what if this little show, was just an exercise in his own abilities.
argh i dont know, haha
lee23joseph 3 years ago
i think he just hypnotized them all and hypnotized us through the computer screen so we think he got it right.
requiemaeternam7 3 years ago 4
LOL yeah that sounds about right
JezzlyJames 3 years ago
most likely rely so far lol
pedropirat 2 years ago
Hypnosis used to control which picture they got? I bet they didn't stand in the right circles the first time lol Derren would be more convincing if there weren't so many camera edits.
blogologist 3 years ago
What exactly is NLP mean?
dixoncheng 3 years ago
Neuro Linguistics Programing
helloween76 3 years ago 5
actually, it's "Neuro Linguistic Programming"
kershawwma 3 years ago
but the odds for that as he said would be 1.48billion.. so.. unless he did it for years upon end with different people from around the world then ye he might have done
DamoFragile 3 years ago
well you have no idea how many of the other pictures that match their initials, so if it just so happened that there were only those 4, he could trick their subconscience into picking the right picture. Then comes the only part I don't know how, the lineup... maybe the order the picture are closer to where they started, so he could predict how fast they would've found them, but I dno. Rest is easy for him here on. Numbers etc. he can now place as he likes!
Bunjabin 3 years ago
He says "at this point" or "thats the point" about 4 times
ericwhyareyousocool 3 years ago
oh...my...god ...what the....THIS IS AWESOME!
E2v0e0y6 3 years ago 3
That's because this is Derren Brown ;]
tkckbmproductions 3 years ago
wtf ?? Oo has somebody any idea how this works ?
SeriousSeaman 3 years ago
Are you sure that this system is not simulate? I'm not...
241371 3 years ago
at 1:31 derren mutters very quickly something that sounds lyk 'thats the one' just after he says but not impossible. also at 1:57 this is probably nuthin but he stumbles very briefly after sayin 'dent let that influence you, some' and it sounds like he mutters 'initial' or at least the first two syllabals of the word initial an i think the key to this working was in influencing them to pick the ppl wiv the same initials.
s66223 3 years ago
has anyone told u before... ur so clever to pick out these tiny tiny things....
farzad135 3 years ago
NLP
quakers101 3 years ago
yea. i think that may be the case.
shadowz12321 3 years ago
i can t begin 2 imagine how this was done
s66223 3 years ago
She is mixing the envelopes, but Derren is handing them out!
clemensetz 3 years ago
I think he did 2 and 3 the wrong way round was because the guy(3) was still putting his sticker on?
satrical 3 years ago
Hey you all,
yeah I love Derren Brown as well!! keeps making my day nicer! But best thing I think.. is that he mixes all arts of simple sleight-of-hand, manipulation, behavioral knowledge, NLP, and other just nicely together. It is this that makes that you always keep wandering! I hopes he keeps on doing this!!
** The wonder of life is to wander what life is **
llwyllin 4 years ago 4
well put :) thats exactly what he s about
Matzes 3 years ago 2
There's always going to be some people who take magicians and mentalists a little too seriously. Look at all the chumps that believed Uri Gellar was a psychic. This is a mentalist's trick, not NLP.
fknugly222 4 years ago
i believe derren is what is called as a mentalist. he deals with mentalism. an illusionist would be more befitting of a stage performer. derren has done stage, but uses mentalist techniques.
Stead3111 4 years ago
He doesn't classify himself as a mentalist.
He does (or used to) a lot of card stuff too etc. that has nothing to do with mentalism >.>
+ I think he found the term 'mentalist' a little too restricting in what he does O.o
callumevans324 3 years ago
Pause at 2:32 that picture is of the main woman in "the system"
UnladeHint 4 years ago
oh and one more thing i certainly do not aoubt in his abbilities, no magics just ming illusions. in one show he said that he is psycho-illusionist that's all. and i'm sorry if i spelled any of words wrong xD
zign92 4 years ago
what can i say he amazes me every time i see him. now there's even in slovenia show with derren brown half an hour long :) i watch it every week. he's just amazing
zign92 4 years ago
I fancy Katie Stephens - she's hot.I would love to ride her!
richardmoores 4 years ago
I admire your honesty
blackdice23 4 years ago
lol
pedropirat 2 years ago
That's right, he is an Illusionist and not a magician ;)
Wolfblaz13 4 years ago
Magic IS illusionism. Magic does not exist, it's a 'trick of the mind'. The System was a brilliant program, but I don't see how ANYONE can mistake it for the complex art of NLP. It is a clever maths trick, and if you can't understand that simple truth, then you don't really understand The System.
blackdice23 4 years ago
But isn't it NLP that made the volunteers stand in the right places and pick out the correct photographs?
richardmoores 4 years ago
Do you know how nlp could make people stand in the right places and pick the right cards?
aceshakazu 3 years ago
Not exactly, no, but I've seen other Derren Brown shows where he uses it to influence people's decisions. Anyway, if not NLP, how did he do it?
richardmoores 3 years ago
I dont know just asking?
aceshakazu 3 years ago
its NLP....ITS NLP
quakers101 3 years ago
youve gotta remember the system he uses.. maybe he did this lots of times with different racing experts?
shadowz12321 3 years ago
This is not NLP. What most people forget is that Derren is a very accomplished magician and even says in his book that he does not agree with the ideas supporters of NLP have. This is nothing more than a magic trick.
mrwhite692000 4 years ago
I've been trying to tell people this for ages, but they wont listen. It's annoying the way everyone just presumes it's NLP when it is clearly not. Did you enjoy the book btw? I think im on my sixth or seventh read of it! :D
Dmanlamius76 4 years ago
i'm a fan of derren brown, dont get me wrong. but i wonder how many times he gets his experiments wrong b4 he get it right, and then shows us all the right one.
i mean there too many things that can go wrong.
chunwun123 4 years ago
Then chunwun123 you need to see his live shows where he literally has us where he wants us...
chicagorocks 4 years ago
He´s not just a magician. He´s also an endurance-artist.
Most of his tricks are done right every time.
But some requires vast amounts of time and effort.
pedropirat 2 years ago 3
Derren is a master of magic, simply because it's magical mastery just watching him. Long Live Master Brown and keep entertaining us as you so do!
DAH210774 4 years ago
Indeed. If you wish to understand magic tricks, you have to realize that there's many ways to perform them. Derren is adept at fooling (most of) his audience about höw he does whät he does. Which is a necessary skill for a magician.
clray123 4 years ago
I'm a Master Practitioner of NLP, whatever the hell that means. Agreed they're not really worth the paper they are printed on. I'm a Life Coach now too. I mean who can call themselves a Life Coach?! I fall back heavily on my Clinical Hypnotherapy qualification a lot. Derren alludes to slight use of NLP, he's also done a course and just slated it.
DAH210774 4 years ago
Clray: I don't see any _real_ NLP tricks here, i'm not an expert. But, i'll point out some of the facts though: at 00:58 he clearly says "you'll have an envelope .. TWO". And he gives the guy two finders at 01:31. Now, he also does this with number #1 on guy #1. We don't see the whole thing, this is just 10 minutes. (odds of 24/1 -> 50/50 on where the remaining two people stand)
Asure007 4 years ago
What you are doing - like most "NLP people" like to do - is called "fishing for data": making up a theory which fits the facts. However, observed that a great number of theories can be made to fit that way. One could claim a causal connection practically from any of his actions to the observed outcome. To give strength theory, I'd expect to see statistical studies which confirm that telling a guy "TWO" in such a situation tends to influence his behavior like you suppose. Where are such studies?
clray123 4 years ago
also he clearly and regularly "admits" to using nlp, although i agree it has had poor results in advertising, auto suggestion works very well in marketing, read blink, very interesting, certainly not bs as you say
strabbs1 4 years ago
Oh yeah? Point me to an interview where he admits using NLP then?
clray123 4 years ago
theres a video on youtube where he uses it on Simon pegg and says as much in the analysis
elusivefish21 4 years ago
Quote from Derren: "I've attended NLP courses and things like that, and although there's some interesting and useful aspects to them, they're generally so evangelically packaged and full of self-fulfilling nonsense that it put me off."
There you go, he admits using suggestion techniques and distances himself from NLP crap explicitly.
clray123 4 years ago
he does not "distances himself from NLP crap explicitly". u must of misread the line
"there's some interesting and useful aspects to them"
if u got to 1 of his websites he recomends a lot of differnt nlp books
chunwun123 4 years ago
On which website does he recommend NLP books?
clray123 4 years ago
of course he uses nlp, he doesnt have to admint it, any1 can see he uses nlp.
chunwun123 4 years ago
wats nlp??
meluvme9 4 years ago
lol
pedropirat 2 years ago
Why would he distance himself from NLP ("self-fulfilling nonsense") if he thought it was worth endorsing? You are jumping to conclusions in assuming he uses NLP. What he says is that there are some (!) aspects he found interesting; if he believed in effectiveness of NLP as a coherent method, surely he wouldn't put it that way. Indeed, he could make nice money promoting NLP - which YOU do, but not him.
clray123 4 years ago 3
i wouldnt call it pseudoscientific at all, theres lots of evidence to show it works, watch derrens show, something wicked this way comes and see wot you think, fairly conclusive in my humble opinion
strabbs1 4 years ago
The fact that you can't explain how a trick works does NOT mean it is evidence for NLP.
clray123 4 years ago 2
I find it disturbing how people associate DB with NLP, even though he has never claimed to use NLP in his tricks. The whole point of the show was to demonstrate that the HIDDEN "behind the scenes" facts do matter a lot and we ought to consider simple alternative explanations to what is going on. Attempting to explain DB's tricks by resorting to NLP - and only interpreting his NON-HIDDEN televised actions - is neither simple nor necessary.
clray123 4 years ago
What you haven't seen is the lead up where Derren most likely planted a number of suggestions and cues in the minds of the participants.
mercutioreprise 4 years ago
clray: If you think that the four experts made a free choice, when they were asked to, then you don't see what he's doing. As he passed the envelopes, i'm almost certain he says 'foreign bloke' instead of 'four envelopes'.. I still need to take a good look at the whole thing. (He also knew these people before hand, they were interviewed and asked to come to this event, the segment is part of a 50 minute show called "The System".)
Asure007 4 years ago
It is much more likely that the pictures were prearranged or that he uses gimmicked envelopes or that these folks were not the only group who was invited to the show or that the whole is a stitch-up of not so related scenes (explained to the participants)... Keep in mind that THIS show was about fooling people by cherry-picking from data. Not about any NLP bs.
clray123 4 years ago
What makes you think it has anything to do with NLP?
clray123 4 years ago
what does NLP stand for?
farzad135 4 years ago
NLP = Neuro-linguistic programming, a pseudoscientific theory whose proponents like to claim that you can influence people's decisions by "subtle" "subliminal" messages (such as mispronounced words). However, when tested properly, both NLP and subliminal advertising fail miserably. Thus, NLP reduces to a money-making scheme for "experts" who offer NLP training and sell NLP books (who may be either self-deluded or fraudulent).
clray123 4 years ago
thanx buddy
farzad135 4 years ago
Actually, a well researched branch of linguistic pshychology that is proven to be useful in treating a number of different conditions and generating positive behavioural change. unfortunately, it has been hijacked and misused by the 'motivational' market who use it for commercial gain.
mercutioreprise 4 years ago
Point me to the controlled experiments that demonstrate that NLP (in the sense of influencing people's decisions by "planting suggestions") works.
clray123 4 years ago
again, red bmx and simon pegg replacing a memory with implanted information
elusivefish21 4 years ago
You don't understand the meaning of "controlled experiment", do you? I did not ask for references to TV shows.
clray123 4 years ago