Deflation NOT Inflation Metals & Oil - Prechter on Bloomberg - May 2008

[lockpet7]

He says silver is going down from17?--It doesn't seem like the charts are working--Then he says cash will be good because people will need to scramble to get some to pay off debts--The Ben Bernack said he will use helicopter drops to forestall that distress, so I am not sure about that prediction either--

[lambergino]

Silver is the best investment of the next year or so.

[DoctorMurky]

Oh my god! That's exactly what happened!

[clarkewi]

What are you talking about the stock market is up 3,000 points? This guy is an idiot trying to sell a a book.

[DoctorMurky]

LOOK AT THE DATE OF THE VIDEO!!!!!!!!

[Azbx23]

I like this anchor, he asks good questions. Such a refreshing change from the brain dump that is CNBC.

[Nuanceqwest]

How right he was about oil. It dropped from the $140 area to about $30

[30percentplusreturns]

Got to give it to prechter. Since this video, we have had nothing but deflation in housing, oil, commodities, gold, silver, and pretty much everything. Say what you want, but the deflation trend will probably keep going for a couple more years.

[ctrader09]

but it will only be so long before the dollar loses its value

[trublu97]

@30percentplusreturns Yeah, I'm waiting for silver and gold to bottom next year in 2012..whooops!, silver uip over 50% gold up over 60%.

Put that in your waves.

[trublu97]

@30percentplusreturns

How is that deflation working out?

[SAMSONEATSFROGS]

Nothing worse than a yappi"" yank distrupting some seriously good information - some jounos should know when to shut the F up and let the rest of us learn something

[nowayjose470]

Finally it's a myth to say that inflation is rising prices or inflation is falling prices. It's a monetary phenomenon. Inflation means high money supply or velocity and therefore the purchasing power of the currency is weakened. Deflation is low money supply or velocity therefore the purchasing power of money is increasing. Prices are merely a SYMPTOM of inflation.

[nowayjose470]

correction "deflation is falling prices."

[fox20012]

well today you cant fricken buy silver at the local mint, mines are shutting down, deficits are rising!

Just the supply and demand side usually would normaly hint at an upward move in silver!

but its going down, seriously wtf

[mongobobo]

Bottom of gold in 2012?! yikes.

What does that mean? $200 an oz.?

What does that mean for oil? $12 a barrel?

I don't think so. Actually I don't hope so, because if that is what you believe than you believe ALL industry will stop. Billions of billions of people will have no work. Basically nothing will matter but how much ammo you have and how many homies you are rolling with.

[marky1333]

lol your post is unfortunately bang on target.

[nowayjose470]

Maybe PAPER gold (ala COMEX) but at the rate the money supply is going the actual metal is likely to explode in price. People actually want the gold in their posession which means a selloff of the paper contracts and a run on buying the gold for immediate posession.

[adrianaJacobs]

The master minds know that Americans do not have savings, so they can't buy gold even they price it so low. The ones who already have gold are being convinced to sell it with this story of deflation. Then in the meantime when all the masses are selling their gold for printing paper, the rich and powerful are buying all physical gold as a reserve. When time is right, BOOM the gold is up MAGICALLY. The master minds are always ahaed from the masses.

[gjmvi]

2:31 he mentions 2012, this year keeps popping up everywhere! makes you wonder

[Sacvalleyrotarywings]

Watch the movie "The Postman" and notice the year. Makes you think!

[fox20012]

what year movie is that?

[tivopro]

Postman takes place in 2013, very interesting!

[pc3222]

wikipedia"- The Mesoamerican Long Count calendar,used by the Mayans among others of pre-Columbian Mesoamerica, completes its thirteenth b'ak'tun cycle since the calendar's mythical starting point The Long Count This date figures prominently in the religious syncretism of New Age Mayanism.

" aka the end of the world : )

[high5flyer]

Please help me with this. Can you have deflation during times of inflation? I thought they were exact opposites of each other. Doesn't deflation only occur when the money supply has been contracted (i.e. Fed raising rates and no borrowing)?

[NoNameEntered]

Money supply contains both cash and credit. If the government directly monetizes debt (prints money), you can have an expanding cash supply, yet at the same time this would make the credit supply fall even faster (panic out of bonds), which is deflationary.

[grimesgw]

Well, technically, I suppose you could say that there is inflation going on by way of bailouts, etc. But the KEY is all inflationary attempts are being far outpaced by debt and asset deflation. The net effect: overwhelming DEFLATION.

[marky1333]

Glad to see there's intelligent people on You Tube.

[psbyowner]

damn. hes right on the money

[faramir44]

Seems he was right about oil.

[mmehrle]

trublue97 - guess Bob is right after all ;-)

[trublu97]

@mmehrle oh, really?

silver 23 bucks, gold over 1350, dollar .77, corn/wheat/food way up.

Bob himself at 2:03 said he is looking at "long term". My long term is up 600%.

Keep chucking darts, pal.

[luvdupraver]

The recent turns have been "a lot of fun".

On what basis?

Do you trade?

[trublu97]

Make you a bet, bob. 100K silver goes over 25 bucks, new high, in 12 months. 25% correct is "quite a drop"? play commodities much? nickel corrected 50%, oil last year correct 40%, Natty gas corrected 70%...Oil is now 80% higher.

total fraud, this joker. He called the top in gold at, 340. yes, 340. I see oil is up 20 bucks since his top call..and lets not even recall his target the DOW in 2003...

[rstora01]

I have been listening to a lot of Technical Analysis experts and they are very very good at 20/20 hind sight. I have yet to see one predicts the future with a significant degree of accuracy.

[TYX91101]

Of course the fundamentals experts have been stopped dead in their tracks again. Gold, oil, wheat, stocks, real estate, are now doing the impossible and retreating in earnest after "unstoppable" bullish fundamentals evident prevailed for weeks, months, or even years. The fools predicted ever higher prices based on recent history.

[visionvictory]

Bob might not take that bet, if you read his book he believe deflation will be followed by hyper-inflation.

[fox20012]

What I dont understand is why it is called deflation? The money from the stock market didn't disapear it only transferred into the US dollar and the Yen for example

I thought the only way for a dollar to be destructed is to pay it back to the federal reserve

and so the money that was transferred out of the stock market will inflate a new bubble somewhere else Like commodities, people probably dont want to buy paper promises at the moment

Im still new to this but deflation sounds a bit misleading

[nowayjose470]

We're seeing deflation because even though the Fed has created an unlimited supply of free credit and money, the market has simply REJECTED THE MONEY. Banks don't want to lend money because by the time they are paid back, the dollar will be worthless.

First deflation...

Then inflation. Hyperinflation.

Deflation is the best thing that can happen to every economic class but the wealthy as long as the government gets out of the way and stops trying to inflate a blown tire. REPLACE THE TIRE!

[fox20012]

you haven't told me why its deflation? wouldn't this event be better described as disinflation.

I ask some one tell me how are dollars being destroyed, is the money supply being contracted?

This will only be a shifting of the bubble into comodities...

[nowayjose470]

The money supply isn't being contracted (in fact it's being increased at record levels) but the velocity of the money is at a crawl (meaning money just isn't being exchanged and circulated through the economy.) The result is prices drop which means deflation.

[nowayjose470]

IOW: People aren't consuming, they are trying to save every penny. The recession IS NECESSARY because it's the only possible way we can balance out production and consumption.

Unfortunately government intervention has ruined the chance for recovery, replacing it with an inevitable period of hyperinflation. Weimar went through a year or two of serious deflation before the the hyperinflation came.

First deflation...

Then hyperinflation...

[TYX91101]

Wrong. The money in the stock market is still there. But the value of the stocks purchased has fallen dramatically in the last 18 months. You can't sell stocks now for what they cost then.

Some top notch traders have made money on the decline - Bob's subscribers among them - but they are few in number. And perhaps one person in 100 actually had the sense to put their capital in a money market fund or t-bills. The money is simply gone - we'll see rally's but bubble's are no longer possible.