What does Average Temperature Mean?

[KATHRINPAVONuh]

Be Happy with Asian bride *lushfmlk.info*

[BrianFH1]

As far as the treerings data: they also respond very strongly to precipitation, confounding the temp. proxy-ness. Unless there is some way to back out the precip, which is very unlikely.

[jrwakefield]

Since you cannot update a video a new one has been posted with fixes and some suggested enhancements here watch?v=vLERf-O1CJw

[zack2314]

I hope those playing with temperature data understand what normals, means and extremes really mean. Every decade, the past 30 years data are averaged and the results are known as "normal." This will be so for the next decade. Thus normal changes every 10 years. This year (2010) is the end of the decade, and thus the normals will change.

[MountThor]

Excellent work, keep it up!

I've posted a blog article here with your videos: "paths to knowledge d o t  n e t".

Could you email me the slides so I can post them to the article as pictures? Thanks.

pwl

[blackw21]

Haha, you show several graphs illustrating average temp. is increasing. Then you claim that this is in contradiction to global warming? Early springs and later falls are predicted by the global warming theory. You showed that that is happening. Longer summers mean ice sheets and glaciers have longer to melt. It also means animal behaviors will change, things such as migrations. All that is happening and has been predicted by the global warming theory. So I am not sure what your point is.

[jrwakefield]

AGW "theory" claims so much I'm not surpized you are getting confused. If you recall one of their claims is temperature will be more extreme. More heat waves, more deep cold winters. Well, the raw data shows the exact opposite. The average going up is meaningless without the upper and lower limits and the upper and lower standard deviations. Those two sets are narrowing.

[BeingLiberal101]

You Racist Hate Mongers! If you fools do not start believing in Global Warming then the people will stop supporting it! The Global Warming Threat is so great that its snowing record amounts and the Earth is NOT showing signs of heating but rather the opposite!! In the words of Rahm Israel Emanuel, White House Chief of Staff, "You never let a serious crisis go to waste."! Global Warming is the perfect path to which Global Governance can be established! You non-believers better not fuck that up!!!

[severn2008]

This video doesn't address the question it says it does. It's a clever trick to make you forget the statistics (what the science relies on, and science relies on in all cases of data with a wide natural variability - epidemiology, testing drugs and so on). Instead it presents you with a series of 'anecdotes' and asks you to judge by eye. This is exactly what humans are not good at and why statistics was invented.

It's either lack of understanding on the part of the poster, or a fraud.

[nlpjohn]

The fraud lies w/ the AGW alarmists. The raw surface station data is so lousy it can not be used in its raw form. The AGW alarmist try to correct the raw data by "homogenizing" the data. The methodolgies to alter the raw data are unpublished and can't be scutinized by 3rd parties. The truth is the raw is so tainted it is unusuable. Then there is the proxy data whose accuracy can not be verified. The AGW science is more a form of astrology than science...

[jrwakefield]

I deal with this subject in the next video, should have it posted by tomorrow. It's beyond astrology, it's out right data fraud.

[jrwakefield]

severb2008m go pick up the raw data and check it out yourself. It shows the planet is NOT heating up, the max temps are DROPPING. The trend is clear, the temperature range is narrowing. This is a fact. And you can check this out yourself and you will see the exact same thing. There is no global warming.

[severn2008]

jrwakefield is using the same trick that homeopaths use, to try to persuade people that anecdotal evidence, out of context, trumps statistical evidence.

I suspect that most of you are just repeating gibberish you have read elsewhere. If you can explain the meaning of 'homogenization' of data and why you think it's wrong then I'll allow myself to be convinced otherwise.

[jrwakefield]

"same trick that homeopaths use" and what is that trick" Show me specifically where I do that.

"If you can explain the meaning of 'homogenization' of data " and that is EXACTLY what the next video is about, should be up today.

[huntwds]

Very well done and presented. You should be on the climate council.

[CoSyBob]

Finally a mention of variance ! While the effect of the spectrum of CO2 on our overall spectrum is minor , its major effect , in transferring heat to and from the broadly transparent components of the atmosphere , should be to reduce the variance in global temperature -- but it has been as if climate "scientists" never heard of the notion .

[stacase]

I'm 65, and I've noticed exactly what he's saying. In my neck of the woods, Wisconsin USA , winters have been warmer and summers cooler. We no longer get extended periods of -10°F cold snaps. And in summer, I haven't had a good hot year for tomatoes for some time.

[bill127234]

Very well done, at last an explanation of the math behind the fraud.

[mikeshepherd]

I came here hoping to see an exposure of careless science by the proponents of "global warming", but, to the extent that one can follow your points (often presented obscurely and with half-grammatical text), what you present seems to argue for their position rather than that which you support.

[jrwakefield]

Maybe you can explain that better.  I fail to see how a narrowing of the variability of the range of temperatures means the planet is heating up, and about to get "hotter."

[Rockyspoon09]

So the Warmists are "hiding the decline" by something we call "creative accounting"; very "tricky" of them! They should be thrown out of science for their deception! Seeing that we're having more moderate temperatures in the spring and fall would indeed argue for a longer growing period. With summer high temperatures actually falling a bit, it shows we're not all going to fry. What an excellent rebuttal against the Warmer's hysteria! Good work!

[MMGWsceptic]

Great vid - thanks. I suppose a large portion of the rise in night-time minimum temperatures is caused by the urban heat island effect as Belleville becomes more built up.