@XCyclonusX Actually I jst re-read my comment and I think you are right if a company is forced to over-extend itself by bad governance then the problem lies with the governance who forced the company into a bad position.
@XCyclonusX "arent the real culprits the ones who might have forced banks to lend?"
I think it should be balanced between the bad regulations and guidelines (Government) and the over-extension of a finance company (Banks), Companies only have one obligation which is to make profit for shareholders. They failed to run their companies successfully (They went bankrupt) and the government failed to regulate - ie. A company will not act responsibly unless some governing agency forces it to
@alan933 if you mean the citizens, it's because they weren't qualified, or more accurately, were far too high risk... loans were given out like mad to people who were highly likely to default. certain companies even encouraged this environment using derivatives as a "betting" measure and collecting the "insurance" when things started going south (which they hoped it would). of course the greedy folks didn't anticipate the magnitude of the damage they would cause...at least i hope so...
The Fed handled $8.4 TRILLION from the auctions of the Treasury securities and hid the money from Congress. The law, Title 12, section 247, requires the Fed to make a “full report” to congress. Hiding that profit from Congress sounds like embezzlement. Ref. 3w scribd dot com message 49040689
But isnt it true that no matter how much leverage a lender has they want money, not houses. Their objective is to have a reliable, consistent stream of incoming money. So would it have been in their interest to lower requirements on people borrowing for mortgages? I don't see why when their requirements stongly suggest that in a short time those people will default. Since everyone want, but cant necessarily afford a house, arent the real culprits the ones who might have forced banks to lend?
Where’s the hope & change that was promised to Americans in 08, when then candidate Obama was campaigning for the Presidency? Hope has dissolved, along with change. Over the course of Obama’s term as President, we have seen unemployment at an all time high, & the Gov continues to spend above & beyond limits. Ca is broke, raising taxes. Letting thousands of criminals out of Prison because lack of $. Freeways with pot holes bigger than basketballs . & still giving Welfare to illegals.
Good explanation. Yet, do you agree about what some market commentators argue that unless there is a strict control of these credit derivatives what happened few years ago in 2007 may happen again?
@idally89 Depends on the derivatives. Some derivatives are nothing more than stock options. Others ... are outright dangerous. Derivative is sort of a broad term.
Let's say you'll a washing machine builder...you are in the USA making the machines for a $100.00 per unit. you are selling them for $400.00 and making a very good profit...then the laborers come and say that they want to make a little bit more...but Mexico comes in behind the laborers and say we can save you money if you move down here , we make for $55.00. So the builder moves to Mexico, the laborers lose their jobs, that mortgage can't be paid that the start
You forgot the government created these debt packages. There also making a new one for the medical industry. According to President Obama we call them "insurance exchanges" which is the same exact thing these debt obligations were.
@thebestsumoeva Wrong these packages were created by financial intermediaries such as Goldman Sachs. Insurance exchanges are not the same as these debt packages.
@BillHicks420 The initial idea came from the government. The whole point was to help poor people get cheaper interest rates on mortgages. Without the government none of these second hand markets would have been created nor would they have been quite as large. It doesn't make any sense for a bank to loan money to someone who won't pay them back unless the government or some other entity insures the loan.
@thebestsumoeva Oh did it now? Well should be blame John Browning when any person gets shot with an M1911 then too, mhh? After all, he created it.
"The government" did NOT create this crisis. surely, you wouln't be so idiotic as to blame this crisis on the CRA in 1977, over 30 years before the crisis? And what do you mean by, "the government"? SEC, fed, congress? WHAT?
By blaming the government (even if they did it, which they didn't), you are skipping steps
@BillHicks420 Banks will not loan money to people who won't pay them back. The only way they will do such things is if there is a way to make money off of it. The government makes it possible to make money off irrational behavior by A. bailing out failures, B. providing insurance for bad mortgages. The intervention of the government is what created all the moral hazard not dumb bankers.
@thebestsumoeva The assumption was always that they WOULD pay them back, only the risk was higher due to their lower credit score. Are you done twisting the truth yet? Govt stimulation is one of many fiscal and monetary tools to stabilize the economy. It is a double edged sword, however it DID save America from further crisis and saved millions of jobs. So because the government bails out wrong behavior, does this justify the wrong behavior? This is what you are suggesting
@BillHicks420 No body outside a few people knew the whole mortgage backed securities was going to tank. They had good credit ratings because they had good returns. Now the government gets to step back and blame them for tanking after setting up and encouraging the whole process leading to their failure. The government did not save anyone. It simply attempted to clean up the mess it created.
@thebestsumoeva They knew the credit rating was wrong, they knew they bundled up securities and sold them at a higher premium then they were worth. Credit rating is not based on pure returns, but rather risk. They didn't CREATE the mess. And again stop acting like a retard by continuing to say "the government" when referring to different independent agencies, it makes so sound liek you have no clue what the fuck you're talking about, which you obviously don't.
@BillHicks420 Open your mind, you have no clue what you are talking about. Now aside from my BS emotional appeal I will state objective reasoning. Credit ratings were good because they HAD GOOD returns historically. Just because the government can act likes it's a genius for noticing something AFTER the fact doesn't make them right. We do KNOW government did ENCOURAGE banks to LOAN money to poor people to "help the poorer communities". Now that their programs FAILED they nicely do a 180.
@thebestsumoeva WRONG, ratings of bonds and mortgages are primarily done by RISK, not return. Their program, and "the government" helping poorer communities has NOTHING to do with the financial crisis and why it happened.
@BillHicks420 The government lowers risk by placing tax dollars as collateral for failure. The financial crisis was a mortgage bubble which was easily predictable given actions from the government and the federal reserve. While I disagree with Peter Schiff on a lot of issues he called out this crisis to the nail way before it happened. When the federal reserve lowers interest rates to 1% and then the government begins begging banks to hand out loans, it's not hard to see whats going to happen.
@thebestsumoeva Blame who ever the fuck you want, I don't care any more, you've ignored all my points, and continue to ramble on your own. There was never a mortgages bubble, but rather a HOUSING bubble, which of course the mortgages dependent on. The mortgage scheme and making money on them was dependent on the bubble not bursting. You make it sound like there is some grand government scheme to fuck people over.
@BillHicks420 I wouldn't call it a scheme so much as incompetence. Their motives were good but their policy was failed and anyone with any common sense could point out all the way they were causing problems. It truly is sad when you take it all in and realize how many people they unintentionally hurt. They are like that mother that won't accept that their kid is a crack head and turns their head every time they give them the money that enables their bad habits.
@CarlosMarti123 Whatever. It's implemented by most Western countries in the world, to some degree. And it gives results. Believe what ever you want, just don't vote.
@thebestsumoeva Lowering interest (fed) and the government programs are two different events with different goals in mind. The Fed operates independently from other government functions. Your accusations don't hold up. I have explained several ponts who is to blame and why, and why you can't blame "the government", but you have yet again failed to answer me. This is no longer a dialog, but you rambling, and me replying. I wont respond to you, unless you engage in dialog.
@BillHicks420 At least you realized they are 2 independent actions, but you still fail to see how they work together. Lowering fed interest rates lowers interest rates on homes which spurs on buyers as well as inflation, government programs simply pull money from productive parts of the economy and put it into the housing sector which sadly was over valued. I am constantly engaging in dialog with you and your only reply is to attack me instead of my ideas.
@thebestsumoeva Nope, it just seems like you are ignoring my points, and keep saying the same things even though I dispute them. AGAIN, the private corporations where the ones who exploited the people, bundled bad mortgages, and sold them overprized to a myriad of institutions in the whole world KNOWING they were bad. It would be a non sequitur to blame "the government" on this, like I have explained, and loads of other youtube vids...
@BillHicks420 Agree with you completely....Corporatism at it's best. People like to blame politicians, but the forget that politicians are being influenced by the wealth of individuals and the companies they run. When you reduce government, you simply create vacuums that end up being filled by corporations whose influence is much greater then the number of people they represent. Corporations duty is to maximize profit and without a strong representative government to protect the little guy.
@BillHicks420 Peru sounds really fun, it's my last semester in college and I can only hope I find something fun to do. Sadly I'll probably end up doing research again like every year. At least this year I may get a publication if I'm lucky.
@thebestsumoeva I don't get why you are defending the obvious crooks in this whole scheme. Granted, previous presidents shouldn¨t have deregulated, but that doesn't excuse thievery, misleading people to sign agreements, and taking advantage of massive asymmetrical information. Your a douche. Open a fucking textbook, you have no clue what you're talking about.
@thebestsumoeva Like I explained, between the government accepting these loans, there are several steps involving deregulation og banking industry, exploitational use of asymmetrical information, WRONG rating of mortgages, and packaging of these mortgages. ALL but one coming from private corporations, and the first one coming from an INDEPENDENT government organ SEC (even though it stared under Reagan, Clinton, and Bush). So grow the fuck up, I know its in to hate "the government"...
@BillHicks420 Banks WILL NOT loan money to people if they know they can not get it back. You can't stand AFTER the fact and claim it was your fault when you made all the problems. It's as if I told you to donate all your clothes to poor people and promised you'd get them back then laughed at you as the poor people burned all of your clothes. Then I acted like a hero by stealing all the poor peoples clothes and giving some of them back to you and then criticized you for being greedy.
@thebestsumoeva i agree with your first sentence, but like I have said twice (minimum), they DO assume they get it back, it is just that the risk increases, due to the lower credit score of the borrowers. Are you seriously blaming the poor people for the crisis? Since when did the banks donate the mortgages? Your poor parallel is nothing less of retarded, read my previous comments. Or just research on what REALLY happened, instead of posting nonsense
@BillHicks420 They pay people a lot of money to know how much interest they should charge given income data and statistics. I am clearly not blaming poor people for the crisis, please try and pay attention to my arguments before making nonsense claims of who I am blaming. The fault here clearly lies with the government since it is them who create the companies to provide insurance for bad mortgages and supported programs to make it to easy for poor people to get loans.
@thebestsumoeva Haha i was just trying to follow your wacky parallel. So your just gonna skip all my points then and try to blame the government again? Fine. AGAIN, I must ask you, what do you mean when you say "government"? You're blaming the government because they created the insurance companies that cover the mortgages? That is convoluted and has nothing to do with teh actual crisis. Again, that's like blaming John Browning whenever someone gets shot by a M1911.
@BillHicks420 It is kind of like blaming John Browning in the sense that he did make the gun that was used to shoot people, but it is different in the sense that John Browning did not place fines on people for not shooting their guns nor did he offer up money he had stolen from his neighbors as a reward to people who shot their guns the most. In this case he would bare quite a bit of responsibility, but thankfully John Browning can steal your money for a PR campaign as well.
@thebestsumoeva The reason for the sub-prime mortgages was to let people with a worse credit score buy a house, the intent was never to "not pay it back", which you arrogantly claim.
These mortgages where KNOWINGLY rated higher, and KNOWINGLY packaged and sold all over the world, by private corporations. No blind finger pointing and rhetoric will ever change this. The people signing these mortgages were also wildly mislead. To blame this whole thing on "the government" sounds silly and infantile
@BillHicks420 You are right that the reason was to let poor people buy a house with a lower credit score, but you are forgetting it was not banks wanting to do this it was the government. You may even blame both if you'd like, but I guarantee the banks could not have done this all on their own. That's like asking them to burn all their money to help poor people get homes all the while ignoring how many "poor people" are being kicked out of their homes.
@thebestsumoeva Right, and the private companies took advantage of what the government did, so why blame the government? Again, you're not blaming the people who DID wrong, you are blaming the people who let there be an opportunity to do wrong. That is not fair, nor is it correct.
@BillHicks420 The government encouraged then forced them to do it with heavy fines. You might blame the man with a gun to his head for sub coming to the wishes of the man holding the gun to his head, but I don't. Government + Businesses = Fascism which is what we have today, Government + Welfare = Socialism which is also what we have today. This is why Government and Business should remain separate unless necessary.
Much better analysis than some of the lies that have spread. The real inflation rate via rule of 72 is at least 12% as it took less than 6 years from the time Bush took office in 2001 to 2006 for grocery and big items to double in prices. However, for some reason, possibly because of its hyper competitive market -driving technological advances but keeping the hardware prices low-, the PC/laptop industry resisted inflation. You get more for your buck throughout 2000's than you would before.
Or people flying planes into IRS buildings, and Detroit on the verge of complete and utter collapse. Muni's around the country are in horrendous shape
no regulation? who is going to regulate the regulation?? bank board of directors, ex-Fed chairman, ex-secretary of treasury?? asking the same people who made the problem to solve the problem??
Sweetbilly, the 'gold standard' isn't going to solve what are fundamentally crises of profitability inherent to capitalism. It's in the way that 'capitals' invest, and compete with each other for the limited market share in things, that drives the economy through boom/bust cycles, and ultimately into more severe downturns. Defaults on mortgages is one way to expose already underpinning problems of profitability, exposing a lack of returns from the real productive economy, and workers suffering.
Agreed on most points, although it should be noted that the "workers" caused some / part / all of this problem as well, through their living on debt to fuel luxuries - despite the historical examples of what occurs when credit luxury living is allowed to continue for an extended period of time.
Short answer is that - everyone is to blame. The ones providing the "home equity" loans, and the ones taking out "home equity" loans to buy goodies.
Good video, Airelon. I'm so sick of people blaming one group for the whole mess (usually from a partisan angle) such as evil bankers or Democrats and Fannie/Freddie. Do you think that the CPI and key commodities like copper and oil broke the levee on the bad debt obligations? Real wages are down, prices up, credit too easy--it shouldn't be shocking. Still, it seems most want to blame the borrowers first, and not acknowledge the weak fundamentals of the economy.
Just a matter of being overbought in the real estate market. You can pass on option ARM's and option A's - as long as there is another sucker to sell the house to. Eventually, ever market falls over because you run out of buyers. If it weren't for the inane over-leverage? That's all this would have been. A top in the real estate market.
Wait a minute that is true.. Putting money under your mattress is not good, because it does not gain interest, in order to overcome inflation. But if you bought gold with your money and then put that under your mattress, then the gold by itself would gain interest without being in a bank, because if the value of the dollar falls, the price of gold goes up. The only thing you have to do is make sure no one steals your gold under the mattress
the federal reserve is the real problem. If the didn't hand out free money. then the banker wouldn't leverage it up. So that what they get and every last one of them should fail for being greedy.
I agree with that, we need a return to the Gold standard all the way baby!! This shit wouldn't have never have happened is we had never been taken off the gold standard to begin with!!
Actually, about the same thing happened on the Gold standard, in the 19th century. They over-leveraged themselves on Gold, vs. the economic growth they were experiencing ...
Well the difference is you can't print gold or lie to the people about how much you have and i disagree that we we're in worse shape back then than we are now. People back then weren't as heavily vested in the stock market and they weren't working for paper riches that just vanished into thin air, it was actually backed up with something tangible. The stock market was a joke in the early 19th century, no one played the stock market and that's why we never would up in these messes.
Because we didn't give control over our finances to Washington therefore the credit flowed and people had jobs.
Obama's idiot plan is to tax the people who now have all the money and hope they invest in a nation that isn't working. So once the stimulus goes back to the "Bill Gates's" in the world where it came from where's the next stimulus going to come from? How can a broke man give a broke man money? 'D'oH
If you don't build basic industry in this country and limit government interference there will be no economic recovery. Recovery is dependent on building wealth, and thanks to the global warmers, conspiracy theorists and incompetent "community organizers" we now have so many stupid, ignorant regulations small businesses are about to become a thing of the past as well as big businesses. Welcome to socialism America!
Thanks for your clear explanations. As someone who keeps human strengths in mind I wonder if you can speak to the dynamic of the credit default swaps. Thank you for not taking sides to the extent others have.
PS The thing that is perplexing to me is that it was clear to me that the way prices were raising beyond what people were actually making with income, The thing is that the truth is to tell liars can say it all just as well and usually do because they have a lot to gain by doing so.
Forgve me for making this a bit more simple. I respect your knowledge.
Perpetual debt will continuously lower the value of the currency until it is not worth the paper it is printed on. Borrowing the nations currency from a group of thugs that do nothing but grow fat from the interest is a bad idea.
Value is what people need to focus on. Not the value of the currency but the value of tangible items. Things are still worth the same as they were before the USA was sold to a bank.
Tell me about it. I completely agree and that is what makes the whole issue so pervasive.
There are so many angles to this sham one can hardly keep up. Personally I see too many similarities between say the housing bubble and back in the day with buying stocks on margin.
Bush is an idiot? Are you sure? He dropped the unemployment rate Clinton had which was 6 down to 4.4% It wasn't easy inheriting a mild recession from the Clinton era. And then 9/11 hit and that had further economic distress. Because of the Bush tax-cuts, the DowJones industrial average, productivity, wages, manufacturing employment all sky-rocketed. It wasn't even until the Democrats took over congress that people started losing their jobs and the economic crisis began.
It takes a few years before the effects of any changes made by any president are felt. All bush did was mimic Hitler. He enjoyed the benefits of the policies put forward by the Clinton admin.
Public school did a good job on ya. Neither Democrat nor Republican matters. It is a good cap bad cop routine.
American citizens need to wake up. We are not in an economic crisis. How can we be? Look around. Look at how many people are still driving, going on vacation, and going out to eat. Look at how full the malls are. Look we control the economy. The money isn't going anywhere. the reason were in a so called economic crises is because the gov't and media brainwash us with bullshit stories saying how bad the economy is. All we need to do is stop living in fear of the gov't and stand up for ourselves.
Deflation occuring as the credit markets explode isn't a crisis?
Unemployment at 11% isn't a crisis? People out of a job?
Economic problems generally do not fully manifest themselves until about 6 to 7 months after the fact. We won't see the entire reprocussions of Octobers events until April of '09. When the credit markets exploded in 1930, the effects did not hit the supply pipe until 1931 and 1932.
Your statement saying "we are not in an economic crisis and that people are brain washed is ridiculuos" I cant be bothered explaining it all to you but let me leave you with a very interesting quote by the charity oxfam . . . "due to the GLOBAL economic crisis, people cant afford fuel . . .rice, bread, stuff like that"
3 months later. Banks going under. People losing their homes. Losing their entire mutual fund portfolio and 401K plans. Losing their jobs. Companies going kablooey.
THe "full malls" are people buying in on DEEP discount. It's not making anyone any profit. Prices going through the roof.
This is some pretty fascinating stuff. Damn, even I know from experience what overleverage leads to, and I'm just starting at trading, or any sort of economic education :P. Man, this stuff is mind boggling to me. Even economy in Polands gets a smack on the head from your banks getting slaughtered left right and centre. You wrote below about people who believe the problem is contained to the rich folks at Wallstreet. Well, it affects the other side of the frigging globe, thank you very much ;)
Egggs-actly. I have people asking me: Well, what country are you looking to invest with?
My answer is that there isn't anywhere to go. This stuff has spread across the entire globe.
The best we can hope for - is a corner of the world, that has as little of this toxic debt as possible. But it's gone everywhere, and will affect everyone.
A fun fact I just remembered- In my neck of the woods, in Poland, only TWO banks had anything to do with debt obligations, and the total money they had in it was less then 2% of their yearly profit. And we're still knee deep in shi... I mean financial crisis. Thats GOOD, becouse as I see it, you guys are up to your eyeballs in it, or soon will be, whats with a certain plan to rob you of 700 billion bucks. But Poland is still not a good place to invest, bears eating people all over the place :P
All those in favour of spending someone elses money, ie: taxpayer money, before you do, You put up 10%, 20% or more of your own net worth, before asking taxpayers to pay a cent. If the corporate leaders or regulators who all failed the taxpayer were doing their jobs, this may have been prevented.
Yep, Awesome. Thanks. In the area that I live in, contractors went bonkers building houses during the boom. They even built in awkward locations. Now I see something I've never seen before: Numbers of unfinished, unsold, new houses sitting around with weeds growing up around them here and there like some old ElCamino rusting in the field up on blocks, that a fella is Really Really gonna get to restoring someday, honest- you know, when he gets some extra spending cash.
Yeah, I kept talking to people day to day - and they didn't understand what was happening, and worse yet - thought this was a problem just contained to the "Rich of Wall Street". So I figured it was time that there was sort of a macro-economic view of what's happening.
Yeah - we have an entire subdivision down the street from us like that. And more and more homes around us with "For Sale" signs. The country is becoming that old ElCamino.
Yeah, very good presentation and insight. Although I expected you to talk of the banks and securitization and deregulation. Indymac for example had a pure sub-prime portfolio, I read that many of the executives were friends of the CEO. It probably had no intent whatsoever to stay in business over the long term, it was only there to get as much millions as possible for those at the top. A lot of banks were set loose because they could now unload the debts on someone else.
Yeah, I actually really wanted to talk about that. I had to cut out about 4 minutes worth of audio, because I had to keep it under 10 minutes, and was trying to keep it on the macroeconomic view. Nor did I get into the irresponsibility of a citizen base, many of whom feel they are entitled to live like kings, credit markets be damned.
I just have a feeling that the market is going to swallow that $700,000,000,000 like a midnight snack. And if that happens? Never, will so much money have been spent, and at the same time, disappeared into nothingness? So quickly ...
It was bascially the Shadow banking system, Underground economy, the black market that was tapped in order provide vast amounts of wealth.
kulan2 2 months ago
@XCyclonusX Actually I jst re-read my comment and I think you are right if a company is forced to over-extend itself by bad governance then the problem lies with the governance who forced the company into a bad position.
shandcunt 2 months ago
@XCyclonusX "arent the real culprits the ones who might have forced banks to lend?"
I think it should be balanced between the bad regulations and guidelines (Government) and the over-extension of a finance company (Banks), Companies only have one obligation which is to make profit for shareholders. They failed to run their companies successfully (They went bankrupt) and the government failed to regulate - ie. A company will not act responsibly unless some governing agency forces it to
shandcunt 2 months ago
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youtube. com/ watch?v=G9IH-XKQpOI
remove the spaces and GET EDUCATED
laija7777 2 months ago
why shouldn't they have gotten loans?????? you left out a MAJOR piece there, waste of time video for explanation
alan933 3 months ago
@alan933 You're asking for the 'why' and a 'redress to the problem'. That's not the point of the video. The video simply explains the mechanics
AirelonTrading 3 months ago
@alan933 if you mean the citizens, it's because they weren't qualified, or more accurately, were far too high risk... loans were given out like mad to people who were highly likely to default. certain companies even encouraged this environment using derivatives as a "betting" measure and collecting the "insurance" when things started going south (which they hoped it would). of course the greedy folks didn't anticipate the magnitude of the damage they would cause...at least i hope so...
WinterXL 3 months ago
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The Fed handled $8.4 TRILLION from the auctions of the Treasury securities and hid the money from Congress. The law, Title 12, section 247, requires the Fed to make a “full report” to congress. Hiding that profit from Congress sounds like embezzlement. Ref. 3w scribd dot com message 49040689
oldereb38 7 months ago
But isnt it true that no matter how much leverage a lender has they want money, not houses. Their objective is to have a reliable, consistent stream of incoming money. So would it have been in their interest to lower requirements on people borrowing for mortgages? I don't see why when their requirements stongly suggest that in a short time those people will default. Since everyone want, but cant necessarily afford a house, arent the real culprits the ones who might have forced banks to lend?
XCyclonusX 7 months ago
i can explain the economic crisis in under 3 minuets ok this was the real cause brace yourself for this one GREED AND INCOMPETANCE!
doctorw2 7 months ago
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Where’s the hope & change that was promised to Americans in 08, when then candidate Obama was campaigning for the Presidency? Hope has dissolved, along with change. Over the course of Obama’s term as President, we have seen unemployment at an all time high, & the Gov continues to spend above & beyond limits. Ca is broke, raising taxes. Letting thousands of criminals out of Prison because lack of $. Freeways with pot holes bigger than basketballs . & still giving Welfare to illegals.
onstageagain 7 months ago
Good explanation. Yet, do you agree about what some market commentators argue that unless there is a strict control of these credit derivatives what happened few years ago in 2007 may happen again?
idally89 10 months ago
@idally89 Depends on the derivatives. Some derivatives are nothing more than stock options. Others ... are outright dangerous. Derivative is sort of a broad term.
AirelonTrading 10 months ago
Let's say you'll a washing machine builder...you are in the USA making the machines for a $100.00 per unit. you are selling them for $400.00 and making a very good profit...then the laborers come and say that they want to make a little bit more...but Mexico comes in behind the laborers and say we can save you money if you move down here , we make for $55.00. So the builder moves to Mexico, the laborers lose their jobs, that mortgage can't be paid that the start
soleeforu 1 year ago
You sound like Harry Solomon from Third Rock From The Sun.
Kman2025 1 year ago
You forgot the government created these debt packages. There also making a new one for the medical industry. According to President Obama we call them "insurance exchanges" which is the same exact thing these debt obligations were.
thebestsumoeva 1 year ago
@thebestsumoeva Wrong these packages were created by financial intermediaries such as Goldman Sachs. Insurance exchanges are not the same as these debt packages.
BillHicks420 11 months ago
@BillHicks420 The initial idea came from the government. The whole point was to help poor people get cheaper interest rates on mortgages. Without the government none of these second hand markets would have been created nor would they have been quite as large. It doesn't make any sense for a bank to loan money to someone who won't pay them back unless the government or some other entity insures the loan.
thebestsumoeva 11 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Oh did it now? Well should be blame John Browning when any person gets shot with an M1911 then too, mhh? After all, he created it.
"The government" did NOT create this crisis. surely, you wouln't be so idiotic as to blame this crisis on the CRA in 1977, over 30 years before the crisis? And what do you mean by, "the government"? SEC, fed, congress? WHAT?
By blaming the government (even if they did it, which they didn't), you are skipping steps
BillHicks420 11 months ago
@BillHicks420 Banks will not loan money to people who won't pay them back. The only way they will do such things is if there is a way to make money off of it. The government makes it possible to make money off irrational behavior by A. bailing out failures, B. providing insurance for bad mortgages. The intervention of the government is what created all the moral hazard not dumb bankers.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva The assumption was always that they WOULD pay them back, only the risk was higher due to their lower credit score. Are you done twisting the truth yet? Govt stimulation is one of many fiscal and monetary tools to stabilize the economy. It is a double edged sword, however it DID save America from further crisis and saved millions of jobs. So because the government bails out wrong behavior, does this justify the wrong behavior? This is what you are suggesting
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 No body outside a few people knew the whole mortgage backed securities was going to tank. They had good credit ratings because they had good returns. Now the government gets to step back and blame them for tanking after setting up and encouraging the whole process leading to their failure. The government did not save anyone. It simply attempted to clean up the mess it created.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva They knew the credit rating was wrong, they knew they bundled up securities and sold them at a higher premium then they were worth. Credit rating is not based on pure returns, but rather risk. They didn't CREATE the mess. And again stop acting like a retard by continuing to say "the government" when referring to different independent agencies, it makes so sound liek you have no clue what the fuck you're talking about, which you obviously don't.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 Open your mind, you have no clue what you are talking about. Now aside from my BS emotional appeal I will state objective reasoning. Credit ratings were good because they HAD GOOD returns historically. Just because the government can act likes it's a genius for noticing something AFTER the fact doesn't make them right. We do KNOW government did ENCOURAGE banks to LOAN money to poor people to "help the poorer communities". Now that their programs FAILED they nicely do a 180.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva WRONG, ratings of bonds and mortgages are primarily done by RISK, not return. Their program, and "the government" helping poorer communities has NOTHING to do with the financial crisis and why it happened.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 The government lowers risk by placing tax dollars as collateral for failure. The financial crisis was a mortgage bubble which was easily predictable given actions from the government and the federal reserve. While I disagree with Peter Schiff on a lot of issues he called out this crisis to the nail way before it happened. When the federal reserve lowers interest rates to 1% and then the government begins begging banks to hand out loans, it's not hard to see whats going to happen.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Blame who ever the fuck you want, I don't care any more, you've ignored all my points, and continue to ramble on your own. There was never a mortgages bubble, but rather a HOUSING bubble, which of course the mortgages dependent on. The mortgage scheme and making money on them was dependent on the bubble not bursting. You make it sound like there is some grand government scheme to fuck people over.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 I wouldn't call it a scheme so much as incompetence. Their motives were good but their policy was failed and anyone with any common sense could point out all the way they were causing problems. It truly is sad when you take it all in and realize how many people they unintentionally hurt. They are like that mother that won't accept that their kid is a crack head and turns their head every time they give them the money that enables their bad habits.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Wrong, Keynesian economics work.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 Good joke XD
CarlosMarti123 9 months ago
@CarlosMarti123 Whatever. It's implemented by most Western countries in the world, to some degree. And it gives results. Believe what ever you want, just don't vote.
BillHicks420 9 months ago
@BillHicks420 "It's implemented by most Western countries in the world, to some degree. And it gives results."
Bad results. Yep :)
"Believe what ever you want, just don't vote."
Why? You're going to tell ME whether I can vote or not? Yeah right.
CarlosMarti123 9 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Lowering interest (fed) and the government programs are two different events with different goals in mind. The Fed operates independently from other government functions. Your accusations don't hold up. I have explained several ponts who is to blame and why, and why you can't blame "the government", but you have yet again failed to answer me. This is no longer a dialog, but you rambling, and me replying. I wont respond to you, unless you engage in dialog.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 At least you realized they are 2 independent actions, but you still fail to see how they work together. Lowering fed interest rates lowers interest rates on homes which spurs on buyers as well as inflation, government programs simply pull money from productive parts of the economy and put it into the housing sector which sadly was over valued. I am constantly engaging in dialog with you and your only reply is to attack me instead of my ideas.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Nope, it just seems like you are ignoring my points, and keep saying the same things even though I dispute them. AGAIN, the private corporations where the ones who exploited the people, bundled bad mortgages, and sold them overprized to a myriad of institutions in the whole world KNOWING they were bad. It would be a non sequitur to blame "the government" on this, like I have explained, and loads of other youtube vids...
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 Agree with you completely....Corporatism at it's best. People like to blame politicians, but the forget that politicians are being influenced by the wealth of individuals and the companies they run. When you reduce government, you simply create vacuums that end up being filled by corporations whose influence is much greater then the number of people they represent. Corporations duty is to maximize profit and without a strong representative government to protect the little guy.
alueshen 9 months ago
@thebestsumoeva OH and happy spring break :) I'll be in Peru...
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 Peru sounds really fun, it's my last semester in college and I can only hope I find something fun to do. Sadly I'll probably end up doing research again like every year. At least this year I may get a publication if I'm lucky.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva I don't get why you are defending the obvious crooks in this whole scheme. Granted, previous presidents shouldn¨t have deregulated, but that doesn't excuse thievery, misleading people to sign agreements, and taking advantage of massive asymmetrical information. Your a douche. Open a fucking textbook, you have no clue what you're talking about.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Like I explained, between the government accepting these loans, there are several steps involving deregulation og banking industry, exploitational use of asymmetrical information, WRONG rating of mortgages, and packaging of these mortgages. ALL but one coming from private corporations, and the first one coming from an INDEPENDENT government organ SEC (even though it stared under Reagan, Clinton, and Bush). So grow the fuck up, I know its in to hate "the government"...
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 Banks WILL NOT loan money to people if they know they can not get it back. You can't stand AFTER the fact and claim it was your fault when you made all the problems. It's as if I told you to donate all your clothes to poor people and promised you'd get them back then laughed at you as the poor people burned all of your clothes. Then I acted like a hero by stealing all the poor peoples clothes and giving some of them back to you and then criticized you for being greedy.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva i agree with your first sentence, but like I have said twice (minimum), they DO assume they get it back, it is just that the risk increases, due to the lower credit score of the borrowers. Are you seriously blaming the poor people for the crisis? Since when did the banks donate the mortgages? Your poor parallel is nothing less of retarded, read my previous comments. Or just research on what REALLY happened, instead of posting nonsense
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 They pay people a lot of money to know how much interest they should charge given income data and statistics. I am clearly not blaming poor people for the crisis, please try and pay attention to my arguments before making nonsense claims of who I am blaming. The fault here clearly lies with the government since it is them who create the companies to provide insurance for bad mortgages and supported programs to make it to easy for poor people to get loans.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Haha i was just trying to follow your wacky parallel. So your just gonna skip all my points then and try to blame the government again? Fine. AGAIN, I must ask you, what do you mean when you say "government"? You're blaming the government because they created the insurance companies that cover the mortgages? That is convoluted and has nothing to do with teh actual crisis. Again, that's like blaming John Browning whenever someone gets shot by a M1911.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 It is kind of like blaming John Browning in the sense that he did make the gun that was used to shoot people, but it is different in the sense that John Browning did not place fines on people for not shooting their guns nor did he offer up money he had stolen from his neighbors as a reward to people who shot their guns the most. In this case he would bare quite a bit of responsibility, but thankfully John Browning can steal your money for a PR campaign as well.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva The reason for the sub-prime mortgages was to let people with a worse credit score buy a house, the intent was never to "not pay it back", which you arrogantly claim.
These mortgages where KNOWINGLY rated higher, and KNOWINGLY packaged and sold all over the world, by private corporations. No blind finger pointing and rhetoric will ever change this. The people signing these mortgages were also wildly mislead. To blame this whole thing on "the government" sounds silly and infantile
BillHicks420 11 months ago
@BillHicks420 You are right that the reason was to let poor people buy a house with a lower credit score, but you are forgetting it was not banks wanting to do this it was the government. You may even blame both if you'd like, but I guarantee the banks could not have done this all on their own. That's like asking them to burn all their money to help poor people get homes all the while ignoring how many "poor people" are being kicked out of their homes.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
@thebestsumoeva Right, and the private companies took advantage of what the government did, so why blame the government? Again, you're not blaming the people who DID wrong, you are blaming the people who let there be an opportunity to do wrong. That is not fair, nor is it correct.
BillHicks420 10 months ago
@BillHicks420 The government encouraged then forced them to do it with heavy fines. You might blame the man with a gun to his head for sub coming to the wishes of the man holding the gun to his head, but I don't. Government + Businesses = Fascism which is what we have today, Government + Welfare = Socialism which is also what we have today. This is why Government and Business should remain separate unless necessary.
thebestsumoeva 10 months ago
Much better analysis than some of the lies that have spread. The real inflation rate via rule of 72 is at least 12% as it took less than 6 years from the time Bush took office in 2001 to 2006 for grocery and big items to double in prices. However, for some reason, possibly because of its hyper competitive market -driving technological advances but keeping the hardware prices low-, the PC/laptop industry resisted inflation. You get more for your buck throughout 2000's than you would before.
69erstud 1 year ago
This guy sounds like Heath Ledger....
dork94596 1 year ago
@AirelonTrading 7 months have passed... doesn't seem A LOT WORSE...
niokstors 1 year ago
Well, if you don't consider the fact that the unemployment rate has more than doubled since I made this video "Much worse" - then I guess it's not.
AirelonTrading 1 year ago
Or people flying planes into IRS buildings, and Detroit on the verge of complete and utter collapse. Muni's around the country are in horrendous shape
AirelonTrading 1 year ago
@AirelonTrading glad we're on the same page
niokstors 1 year ago
heath leger is still alive?
cfrancis 2 years ago 2
you sound just like the joker. nice vid
discipulo123 2 years ago
no regulation? who is going to regulate the regulation?? bank board of directors, ex-Fed chairman, ex-secretary of treasury?? asking the same people who made the problem to solve the problem??
meka4996 2 years ago
From 3:28-3:33 you totally sound like the joker.
No joke.
Thanks for the vid, helps alot
alvejones 2 years ago
Why? What's coming?
From your other videos, you're talking about the crisis being predicted by activity in the bond market?
jbat001 2 years ago
I talked about much of it on the Week in Review podcast on my daily blog on Saturday.
GDP deflationary trap spiral.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Thanks Dan.
I'm not yet a podcast regular (tend to be a youtube watcher), but I'll have to check it out.
jbat001 2 years ago
No worries. If you enter your email on the daily blog, whatever I have will be delivered to you so ya don't have to worry about missing anything.
:)
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Buy commodities. They are getting scares
225Vikings 2 years ago
I love the way this guy talks, if my lecturers were more down to earth like this I swear I'd learn twice as much.
Sparnage 2 years ago
Aw shucks. Ya have me blushing. :)
Thank you much. I keep meaning to do a part 2 to this video.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Sweetbilly, the 'gold standard' isn't going to solve what are fundamentally crises of profitability inherent to capitalism. It's in the way that 'capitals' invest, and compete with each other for the limited market share in things, that drives the economy through boom/bust cycles, and ultimately into more severe downturns. Defaults on mortgages is one way to expose already underpinning problems of profitability, exposing a lack of returns from the real productive economy, and workers suffering.
stephenfs03 2 years ago
Agreed on most points, although it should be noted that the "workers" caused some / part / all of this problem as well, through their living on debt to fuel luxuries - despite the historical examples of what occurs when credit luxury living is allowed to continue for an extended period of time.
Short answer is that - everyone is to blame. The ones providing the "home equity" loans, and the ones taking out "home equity" loans to buy goodies.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Good video, Airelon. I'm so sick of people blaming one group for the whole mess (usually from a partisan angle) such as evil bankers or Democrats and Fannie/Freddie. Do you think that the CPI and key commodities like copper and oil broke the levee on the bad debt obligations? Real wages are down, prices up, credit too easy--it shouldn't be shocking. Still, it seems most want to blame the borrowers first, and not acknowledge the weak fundamentals of the economy.
zombiesoiree 2 years ago
Just a matter of being overbought in the real estate market. You can pass on option ARM's and option A's - as long as there is another sucker to sell the house to. Eventually, ever market falls over because you run out of buyers. If it weren't for the inane over-leverage? That's all this would have been. A top in the real estate market.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Wait a minute that is true.. Putting money under your mattress is not good, because it does not gain interest, in order to overcome inflation. But if you bought gold with your money and then put that under your mattress, then the gold by itself would gain interest without being in a bank, because if the value of the dollar falls, the price of gold goes up. The only thing you have to do is make sure no one steals your gold under the mattress
hbsegura 2 years ago 2
the federal reserve is the real problem. If the didn't hand out free money. then the banker wouldn't leverage it up. So that what they get and every last one of them should fail for being greedy.
mic2damgood 2 years ago
I'm so glad that I didn't invest ANY money at all after I saw what happened shortly after 9/11.
Money is best 'under mattress'
hardleecure 2 years ago
Money is best 'under mattress'
I agree with that, we need a return to the Gold standard all the way baby!! This shit wouldn't have never have happened is we had never been taken off the gold standard to begin with!!
sweetbilly 2 years ago
Actually, about the same thing happened on the Gold standard, in the 19th century. They over-leveraged themselves on Gold, vs. the economic growth they were experiencing ...
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Well the difference is you can't print gold or lie to the people about how much you have and i disagree that we we're in worse shape back then than we are now. People back then weren't as heavily vested in the stock market and they weren't working for paper riches that just vanished into thin air, it was actually backed up with something tangible. The stock market was a joke in the early 19th century, no one played the stock market and that's why we never would up in these messes.
sweetbilly 2 years ago
Because we didn't give control over our finances to Washington therefore the credit flowed and people had jobs.
Obama's idiot plan is to tax the people who now have all the money and hope they invest in a nation that isn't working. So once the stimulus goes back to the "Bill Gates's" in the world where it came from where's the next stimulus going to come from? How can a broke man give a broke man money? 'D'oH
sweetbilly 2 years ago
If you don't build basic industry in this country and limit government interference there will be no economic recovery. Recovery is dependent on building wealth, and thanks to the global warmers, conspiracy theorists and incompetent "community organizers" we now have so many stupid, ignorant regulations small businesses are about to become a thing of the past as well as big businesses. Welcome to socialism America!
sweetbilly 2 years ago
Thanks for your clear explanations. As someone who keeps human strengths in mind I wonder if you can speak to the dynamic of the credit default swaps. Thank you for not taking sides to the extent others have.
PS The thing that is perplexing to me is that it was clear to me that the way prices were raising beyond what people were actually making with income, The thing is that the truth is to tell liars can say it all just as well and usually do because they have a lot to gain by doing so.
laurasIs2c 2 years ago
Forgve me for making this a bit more simple. I respect your knowledge.
Perpetual debt will continuously lower the value of the currency until it is not worth the paper it is printed on. Borrowing the nations currency from a group of thugs that do nothing but grow fat from the interest is a bad idea.
Value is what people need to focus on. Not the value of the currency but the value of tangible items. Things are still worth the same as they were before the USA was sold to a bank.
LastCynicStanding 3 years ago
There's a whole other issue. :^) This one was just made back on September 28, and people didn't know why the massive devaluation was going on.
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
Tell me about it. I completely agree and that is what makes the whole issue so pervasive.
There are so many angles to this sham one can hardly keep up. Personally I see too many similarities between say the housing bubble and back in the day with buying stocks on margin.
Using peoples greed to destroy them.
LastCynicStanding 3 years ago
i enjoyed that. Thanks
edmundohillary 3 years ago
Bush is an idiot? Are you sure? He dropped the unemployment rate Clinton had which was 6 down to 4.4% It wasn't easy inheriting a mild recession from the Clinton era. And then 9/11 hit and that had further economic distress. Because of the Bush tax-cuts, the DowJones industrial average, productivity, wages, manufacturing employment all sky-rocketed. It wasn't even until the Democrats took over congress that people started losing their jobs and the economic crisis began.
VoiceOfModeration 3 years ago
sigh....
It takes a few years before the effects of any changes made by any president are felt. All bush did was mimic Hitler. He enjoyed the benefits of the policies put forward by the Clinton admin.
Public school did a good job on ya. Neither Democrat nor Republican matters. It is a good cap bad cop routine.
Can you seriously not see that?
LastCynicStanding 3 years ago 2
speech = clear and easy to understand
slides = boring, some images would have made it easier to digest
dietangel 3 years ago
American citizens need to wake up. We are not in an economic crisis. How can we be? Look around. Look at how many people are still driving, going on vacation, and going out to eat. Look at how full the malls are. Look we control the economy. The money isn't going anywhere. the reason were in a so called economic crises is because the gov't and media brainwash us with bullshit stories saying how bad the economy is. All we need to do is stop living in fear of the gov't and stand up for ourselves.
wkbrd15 3 years ago
Apply for a loan lately?
Deflation occuring as the credit markets explode isn't a crisis?
Unemployment at 11% isn't a crisis? People out of a job?
Economic problems generally do not fully manifest themselves until about 6 to 7 months after the fact. We won't see the entire reprocussions of Octobers events until April of '09. When the credit markets exploded in 1930, the effects did not hit the supply pipe until 1931 and 1932.
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
Your statement saying "we are not in an economic crisis and that people are brain washed is ridiculuos" I cant be bothered explaining it all to you but let me leave you with a very interesting quote by the charity oxfam . . . "due to the GLOBAL economic crisis, people cant afford fuel . . .rice, bread, stuff like that"
jsdhaliw 3 years ago 2
3 months later. Banks going under. People losing their homes. Losing their entire mutual fund portfolio and 401K plans. Losing their jobs. Companies going kablooey.
THe "full malls" are people buying in on DEEP discount. It's not making anyone any profit. Prices going through the roof.
YOU need to wake up.
archer1949 2 years ago
Get rid of Obama and we can fix it.
sweetbilly 2 years ago
This is some pretty fascinating stuff. Damn, even I know from experience what overleverage leads to, and I'm just starting at trading, or any sort of economic education :P. Man, this stuff is mind boggling to me. Even economy in Polands gets a smack on the head from your banks getting slaughtered left right and centre. You wrote below about people who believe the problem is contained to the rich folks at Wallstreet. Well, it affects the other side of the frigging globe, thank you very much ;)
PeterTheEvilBastard 3 years ago
Egggs-actly. I have people asking me: Well, what country are you looking to invest with?
My answer is that there isn't anywhere to go. This stuff has spread across the entire globe.
The best we can hope for - is a corner of the world, that has as little of this toxic debt as possible. But it's gone everywhere, and will affect everyone.
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
A fun fact I just remembered- In my neck of the woods, in Poland, only TWO banks had anything to do with debt obligations, and the total money they had in it was less then 2% of their yearly profit. And we're still knee deep in shi... I mean financial crisis. Thats GOOD, becouse as I see it, you guys are up to your eyeballs in it, or soon will be, whats with a certain plan to rob you of 700 billion bucks. But Poland is still not a good place to invest, bears eating people all over the place :P
PeterTheEvilBastard 3 years ago
Solution to the $ 700 Billion bailout.
All those in favour of spending someone elses money, ie: taxpayer money, before you do, You put up 10%, 20% or more of your own net worth, before asking taxpayers to pay a cent. If the corporate leaders or regulators who all failed the taxpayer were doing their jobs, this may have been prevented.
dtguy123 3 years ago
Excellent video here Dan.
TradeCraze 3 years ago
Thanks. :)
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
What we saw today was capitulation setting in
daejinko100 3 years ago
Eggggs-actly.
Because that selling? Was all fundamental selling. There were no shorts. That was all people who were buying stocks? Holding on? And selling them.
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
I made a nice chunck SHORT in a marker full of Longs.
UTubeConspiracy 3 years ago
Great!
antongandon1986 3 years ago 3
Yep, Awesome. Thanks. In the area that I live in, contractors went bonkers building houses during the boom. They even built in awkward locations. Now I see something I've never seen before: Numbers of unfinished, unsold, new houses sitting around with weeds growing up around them here and there like some old ElCamino rusting in the field up on blocks, that a fella is Really Really gonna get to restoring someday, honest- you know, when he gets some extra spending cash.
newutubejunkie 3 years ago 5
Yeah, I kept talking to people day to day - and they didn't understand what was happening, and worse yet - thought this was a problem just contained to the "Rich of Wall Street". So I figured it was time that there was sort of a macro-economic view of what's happening.
Yeah - we have an entire subdivision down the street from us like that. And more and more homes around us with "For Sale" signs. The country is becoming that old ElCamino.
Ugh ...
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
Yeah, very good presentation and insight. Although I expected you to talk of the banks and securitization and deregulation. Indymac for example had a pure sub-prime portfolio, I read that many of the executives were friends of the CEO. It probably had no intent whatsoever to stay in business over the long term, it was only there to get as much millions as possible for those at the top. A lot of banks were set loose because they could now unload the debts on someone else.
Renegen1 3 years ago 3
Yeah, I actually really wanted to talk about that. I had to cut out about 4 minutes worth of audio, because I had to keep it under 10 minutes, and was trying to keep it on the macroeconomic view. Nor did I get into the irresponsibility of a citizen base, many of whom feel they are entitled to live like kings, credit markets be damned.
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
We're screwed.
GabbyShae 3 years ago 3
I just have a feeling that the market is going to swallow that $700,000,000,000 like a midnight snack. And if that happens? Never, will so much money have been spent, and at the same time, disappeared into nothingness? So quickly ...
AirelonTrading 3 years ago
Excellent presentation, thank you.
MrFredGSanford 3 years ago 2
You're more than welcome. :)
AirelonTrading 3 years ago