Conversations with Great Minds with Neil Howe, Pt 2

[danger0usknowledge]

There it is, the sequel to "The Fourth Turning"

C-span 1997 on YT. Neil Howe looks great

I wish to hell Hartmann & Howe would switch roles

with Howe as the radio b'caster. Hartmann has the

habit of losing debates on his own show just to

get the right winger to come back.

4th Turning is predictive demographics for dummies

like me.

[k31rifleman]

I have said for a couple of years that america is acting like two brothers that need to go in the backyard and have at it and fight. We are just overdue. California and washingtondc can go to hell if they think we are going to bail them out.

[texme]

they should have kissed at the end. Thom had such a hardon.

[Dubwise78]

Round and round we go. He admits he cant predict anything, yet his premise is that you can, with a fourth turning - sounds like BS to me.

[Sshelly34213]

@Dubwise78 Well he can't predict specific events, for example no one saw WW1 coming, it just came out of nowhere, as did the Great Depression and the attack on Peal Harbor. You can't predict a specific event that's going to occur, only that the mood of the people has shifted into a certain manner where crisis-like environments catch people at their most vulnerable. The rising population all around the world creates higher demand that cannot possibly be fulfilled, which in turn creates a crisis.

[ValiRossi]

@Sshelly34213 I wish someone would ask Neil about WW1. I cant figure how it fits into the cycle.

[Sshelly34213]

@ValiRossi Well I don't know if Neil has spoken about it, but this has been discussed an analyzed regarding Generation Theory. There's a blogger named Xenakis (wrote Generational Dynamics which further expands upon Howe and Strauss's theory) and his opinion is that WW1 was not a crisis war for the US. Most people didn't want to fight this war in Western Europe or the US. It was a crisis war for Eastern Europe and Russia however.

[Sshelly34213]

@ValiRossi Which kind of makes sense because the genocide in former Yugoslavia and fall of the Berlin Wall (crisis period for Eastern Europe) all occurred during OUR unraveling in the 90s

[Sshelly34213]

@Dubwise78 These are obvious trends that occur throughout history, empires rise and fall. What would be interesting to see is someone go into specific. If you're interested would suggest a website called Generational Dynamics, which examines events going on in the world and attempts to predict the directions that can be made based on political decisions, the shifting moods of the people, and generation theory based on the history of each country around the world.

[Sshelly34213]

@Dubwise78 This website is not run by Howe, but another person named John Xenakis who based a more complex and detailed theory off of Howe and Strauss' original work.