Practice in Theory: Episode 2: Calculated Risk (Part 1): Pre-emptive Decision Making

[Phnxkon]

no skill? no problem! for the low price of ~$400 you can buy a playset of skill

[mrblack85]

You also neglect to mention how "luck" effects who you play against in any tournament. Many decks have a rock,paper,scissors dynamic where getting paired up with your decks hard counter early in a tournament can end your series at game 1

[mrblack85]

If you hold back when you have an advantage in constant fear of some sort of trick you just give your opponent more and more turns to draw an out.

And without a way to make them discard those combat tricks are going to be in there hand every turn anyway so trying to play wide circles around them is fruitless.

[mrblack85]

This video talks a lot but doesn't really say much of anything.

Throwing out mathematical figures like the one you gave with the "2.3 times" nonsense isn't helpful since there are going to be huge amounts of variance in what was actually drafted, player style and life count which all influence the situation.

Same with the Gandhi quote it was barely relevant and seems pretentious more then anything.

[manudosde]

You forgot to mention mulliganing as one of the mitigating factors.

[Jdoss19]

did the math so u douch bags shut up it is around 2.3 and he is right i do it all the time

[NeuclearRabbit]

I would just let the attack go through (if I had enough life that is). Draw a land on my next turn (luck?). Play land. Play Groundswell. If opponent responds with burst lightning, I respond with 2nd Groundswell. Bash opponents face for 10.

[gambitraven]

Felt this was a good example in how to kinda explain magic.

[TeccaN9nja]

I view this game as a game that has too much luck in it based on how you cant control how your opening hand looks outside throwing all back for one less card. And you pray your now one less card hand at least has something usable in it. Over the past 4 weeks i have had to mull down to 3 twice seeing no lands at all on the way down. Thats not your "you messed up along the way" unless you think that my ability to shuffle should be called into question.

[TeccaN9nja]

This vs a game like WWE Raw Deal which is almost all skill as you can modify nigh everything before even starting hands are drawn. Magic has a TON of skill and strategy involved and thats whats great about it, even some bad luck can be skilled out of, but there are many times where even your tight playing still results in your draw 15 lands and 9 spells thus losing.

A friend of mine said last FNM: A "'Good Game' is when your deck works, mine works and someone wins."

[Huskie322]

What do you mean by the 2.3 times number. I feel like that is really subjective and that your specfic numbers are the biggest weakness of this show so far.

[Zuul030]

He means for the colors that his opponent is playing and the using the knowledge of what's possible in the draft (Z - Z - Ww)... there is a 2.3 times higher probability that your opponent has some sort of instant trick to screw with combat math.

I like the Gandhi quote at the end.

The obvious could be obvious. But there is something to be said to question the obvious.

[Huskie322]

@Zuul030 But how can you know that. It would have to be based on what is unplayable, which is different in each persons mind. I would never play bullrush, so that is one less instant my opponent would have to worry about. And 2.3 times higher probability than what?

[proffessors]

it's just the number of red+green instant tricks where mythics have are rated 1, rares are 8, uncommons are 24, and commons are 80. Also, Zendikar gets a double count and then divided by 229, but Worldwake gets a single count and divided by 145. Then Red+Green was divided by the rating of Green and it comes out to 2.3

[Huskie322]

@proffessors but that number means nothing because a lot of cards don't matter

[proffessors]

usually what's playable and what's not evens out. I do know some people that play Bull Rush, though it is true that something like Comet Storm would be played over it, it doesn't entirely matter: it's still, roughly 2.3.

[Huskie322]

@proffessors but then you have to take into account the fact that a rare or mythic bomb might make the player more inclined to play those colors, which might up the odds. What I'm saying is that your number may be near right, but you can't just drop numbers without justification. If this video column is going to be about math theory than you need to back up each stat you use.

[Zuul030]

@Huskie: He just did, if you read his posts.

If advanced Math is difficult for you (And I mean no slight by this) then I would suggest you do the research.

[Caladors]

the god thing was a little wierd but interesting, this peaks my interest.

[HaXno0b]

I really like this new series keep it up :D

[Wedgehead123]

I think the problem here is that you're playing 2 Groundswells.

[huricane]

@Wedgehead123 lols

[proffessors]

actually this situation is very similar to one I had in a draft I went 3-0-1 and won. I had a 2/2 Gnarlid Pack with 2 Groundswells in hand and he had 1 Groundswell and a land in hand. I think the card is plenty good, a lot of the time it can be better than Lightning Bolt.

[Wedgehead123]

Groundswell is not better than Bolt.

[proffessors]

@Wedgehead123 in certain situations it numerically is.

[ShadowWaker101]

@proffessors "In certain situations" I believe you sir don't know what you are talking about. Lightning bolt will always be better than groundswell.

[Wedgehead123]

Hey, want to know what's infinitely better than Groundswell? Vines of the Vastwood. Want to know what people don't play? Vines of the Vastwood. The fact that Bolt is played over one of the best pump spells ever printed should be proof enough that a shitty, conditional pump spell like Groundswell is nowhere near as good as it.

[Zuul030]

Well considering the topic at hand is a Zen-Zen-Ww Draft your entire paragraph makes absolutely no sense.

[Wedgehead123]

I'm bringing up the topic because he compared Bolt to Groundswell, and this comparison obviously can't be made inside Zendikar limited. You should probably read the previous posts before commenting on one that's in the middle.

[Zuul030]

Then perhaps you should have paid more attention to my 1st post when I said that bolt was a good all-around trick.

And then you went all asshole on me and was a sarcastic prick.

[Wedgehead123]

Damn straight I did.

[Wedgehead123]

I guess if a was an idiot like you and went turn 1 "Bolt you" in M10 limited, then yes, Groundswell is numerically better. But then again, you're probably one of the people who goes, "You're at 20? Sweet, I'll Slaughter Cry my Mindless Null. Now you take 5. Haha, I dealt you so much damage."

[Zuul030]

Bolt is a good all around trick... but if a green player were to say landfall PRIOR to his attack step then he could use Groundswell and get a +4/+4 for it.

Or he could have a harrow and a groundswell. You never know.

[Wedgehead123]

No way! You can play lands before you play Groundswell to make it do more? You're a fucking genius! Which pro player am I talking to right now? Is this LSV? Damn, you're amazing. I can't believe no one else has thought of this!

[Zuul030]

Wow.

Way to be a prick and add absolutely nothing, zero, zip, nada to the discourse.. other then being a gigantic asshole.

You what smartass? How about you take the time, making a fucking video yourself and prove people wrong?

Of course you won't.

You are too busy being a giant tool.

[Wedgehead123]

I'm the one who's adding nothing? You're the one who suggested playing a land before Groundswell. Everyone knows you can do that. I'm being a dick because you're stating out the blatantly obvious.

[Zuul030]

You are still adding nothing.

Par for the course.

Please An Hero, thanks.

[Wedgehead123]

I can has be trollololing.

[sandman423]

I would say Situation #2..

Depending on my life and opponents cards in hand I would block then groundswell...Thats if he had one card in hand 3 or more cards I would think a little more about it

[DreadWaffle]

i kept getting ally topdecks at the release, i had 7 + join the ranks in my 40 card deck

[manashark]

great show. last episode bored the hell out of me

[proffessors]

well, this one is certainly more mentally taxing :D.

[WickedDealer]

Yeah I would say there's a far amount of luck in limited. If you crack that bomb rare, your a lot more likely to win the late game as opposed to the guy that cracked crap. However I think limited such as sealed judges a lot of how well you can build a deck. I find it to be extremely hard in a Zen/Zen/Zen/WW/WW/WW format.

[keyfamily]

@IronBlood111 really dude...