Mish's Global Economic Analysis

[PlayCani22]

i came here of the singer mish and now i think mish=anal/ysis

[HillcrestCapital]

Pfff, fuck this guy, bring on the Nicki Manaj and Lil Wayne!

[TheRealCritique]

Mish is a decent analyst, but comes to the same old business school boy conclusions. That all the problems are pensions and public wages, all of which get pumped back into the economy. Frankly, traders like Mish should be out of a job. He wants to destroy unions. Fact is, when unions were strong, and bankers weren't allowed to gamble on the stock market with public funds, the economies of the world were boring, but worked fine. Plus good luck criticizing the douche. He can't handle it.

[rictorn]

he is correct that a bubble is a misalocation of money but how can he not see that that is the free market, bubbles are the quansiquance of a free market, this guy is blind a dodo(being extinkt they don't see too well)

[TheRealCritique]

@rictorn Exactly. He nails all the problems going on, and then decides that it's not laissez faire greedtrader capitalism that's at fault, but workers who don't even have any power in the system. Fact is, humans are done.

[rictorn]

i realise this guys pesimism is well founded, but the fact bubble was so big kainsianism is powerless in the short term to power us out of this dosent mean the do nothing (but deregulate) austrian economics well do anything but sink us, this guy offers no answers, what we must do 1st is decide what kind of a world we want then we can work together for that end

[rictorn]

real estate prices back in 2012? dose he mean 2022 or 32 ? this is a 20 year resession

[temp911Luke]

How can a can you double your money?

By folding it in half.

[presurepoint]

Welcom'Mish

[Rawego]

the guy is a total nerd and that's why i trust him :)) that and that he makes total sense.

[tanyamuriyan]

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[58robbo]

the question i'd like to ask mish is whether he thinks gambling ought to be legal?

[kevinusma]

I love the insight into the Walmart greeters!

[bmecher]

We have 2 problems, Keynesian Economics true believers trying to run the economy and the Big Corporate Lobby is doing a good job of using government to minimize the consequences of their mistakes. At least for now...............

[Everett345]

@bmecher

got a link to describe the reasoning here in more detail? Businesses are just selfish and ask for govt handouts and aid whenever they can... i dont know what businesses you're talking about ...

[mohammasamarendra]

Asian lady Travel around the world busizz4me.info

[PrismaMD]

Mish is a donkey period. Big deal he cashed out of equities in 08, most are now making new all time highs. Hes out putting his clients into government debt.

[PrismaMD]

Mish got smoked, dollar about to hit new lows for 2010

[jessicakaylai]

Asian wives alone and try to chat her #lushfmlk.info#

[PrismaMD]

Long end of the yield curve has been steepening not narrowing mish. AG commodities up 30% in a month, metals up 30%. When will you GET IT? Printing money is EASY. Japan did not print at the rate of the FED. They also produced products to absorb their inflation, US is just exporting it out! Someday the dollars will come home.

[PrismaMD]

Mish refuses to admit stock markets, commodities and currencies are ALL setting new all time highs outside of the US. This man is as clueless as they come. CRB Commodity index just hit a new all time high, look at asian stock markets.

[traderpards]

@PrismaMD - "All time highs" based on what? Fake money being printed the world over. Our own Fed is solely responsible for the new recovery highs in Amerika. Take a look at the price of gold and ask yourself why it is making new all time highs. I would suggest you go out and buy all the large cap stocks you can and HOLD them because you see, people who don't agree with you are clueless.

[PrismaMD]

Mish got steamrolled in shorting the Aussie and Canadian Dollar.

[PrismaMD]

The main problem with MISH is hes an extreme American patriot and refuses to acknowledge the scope of the debt problems the US fed gov is facing. He also refuses to acknowledge Bernanke's textbook money printing having an effect. I mean the man believes low debt Asian currencies will underperform the dollar??

[polarbeach]

anyone know what was said at 28:55 as the sound was omitted.

[FCmagic01]

I just found Mish a little while ago. If I had any money I'd invest it with him for sure.

[morfeeene]

Mish needs a freaking vacation. Too much ranting and raving makes Mish a dull boy.

[Steve2323ZX]

fuck keynesian economics

[PrismaMD]

danpt2000 You are really stupid. Thanks to innovation and technology that free markets promote the majority of the population can do something else BESIDES worrying about feeding themselves. It took 90% of the population to produce enough food for themselves + the remaining 10% when US was formed, now it takes 2% to feed 90%. This progress allowed the country to grow as labour was used in other more productive ways.

[D0g63rt]

@PrismaMD

Free markets didn't do that, people did it. Free markets invite all kinds of abuse (since there is no "free markets" only various shades of government controlled markets) and defending them so vociferously outside of measured reality and history is essentially an exercise in trolling. If you don't understand that the luddite fascination that people have with unfettered markets is an unachievable fairy tale then you are the one who is stupid, and unduly obstructionist to other options.

[danpt2000]

I think majority of Americans should get jobs working on farmland, growing food, raising animals for meat. The excess food grown can be exported to foreign nations to bring this countrys financial house back into order.

[highonhayek]

@danpt2000 Good idea! But I think your plan would create a hideous shortage of food to the point of mass cannibalism -- and the country wouldn't have any food to export. Kind of a lose-lose situation, don't you think?

[danpt2000]

@highonhayek: you're saying Americans in general are poor farmers and poor at raising animals. Yes. I think you are correct. But theres a first time for everything. Americans need to get back to working the land, instead of becoming factory drones and trapped in Concrete Jungles.

[highonhayek]

@danpt2000 I am going to assume that you are completely sincere... and not a troll.

Given that your plan for a lifestyle of agricultural peasantry of 12-hour workdays is the optimal situation, then why haven't people taken that step generations ago? Why do people prefer 40-50 hour workweeks with comforts at the push of a button to digging in the dirt with their naked fingers?

I'm sorry, but I just don't think that your idea would gain the voluntary consent of those involved.

[javierislas91711]

this guy is stupid. the banks are lending. they borrow at zero from the fed and loan it right back to them so they can "stimulate" the economy.

[TheRealCritique]

Left-wing economics has been detonated by Obama Geithner Summers Rubin supporting the giant derivatives bullshit scheme, and allowing banks into investments, so no wonder right-wingers don't trust the left. Of course, the right has no answer either, since they are just shills for oligarchism, not raw capitalism. I'm just saying that attacking 100k per year public employees Mish is moronic. Govt waste is nothing compared to corporate theft. Concentration of wealth among the rich does not work..

[perseverance8]

@TheRealCritique 'Laisses Faire', are you mentioning the obvious illusion of a "Free Market" system. We have in recent history ~40 years not operated under a 'Laisses Faire' 'Free Market' system, we've just been told over and over by our political & media chearleaders about these fictional unicorns frawlicking around us.

[TheRealCritique]

Hey, Mish, glad I can finally criticize you. You make it so impossible on your webpage since you have such a thin skin. You were a decent analyst of the housing bubble, and worth reading then. Since then, you've turned into a right-wing hater of public servants, putting all the blame on govt instead of the laissez faire policies of stock traders and corporate raiders like YOU. Govt spending should not be the only solution, but it is part of the solution when the private sector has rotted LIKE U.

[evolutionofmankind]

Ha. Where does the government get the money? From people who work and the businesses they work for... All they do with it is give more money to the banks who gambled wrong, and the incompetent government agencies who did nothing... and if there's anything left maybe they'll build a highway.

[1RoaringMonk]

wow mishes credentials are impressive!

[raguila11]

Mish, please focus on the Federal Reserve and their control of the US Dollar. That is where the problems start and end.

[58robbo]

I totally agree with the guy at 40:40. I have no problem with fractional reserve banking as long as it's not govt guaranteed. if a depositer wants to take that risk, that's their baby. i disagree that a non govt backed fraction reserve banking will lead to asset bubbles.

[DavidAKZ]

Housing ? Tech bubble ?

[58robbo]

the next bubble will be in healthcare, alternative energy and defense! money is about to pour into these 3 sectors like never before and will eventually bust around 2020! lol

[DavidAKZ]

'Cap and trade' if Al Gore gets his way

[ChaoticSouls]

Cap and trade just destroys more jobs during an economic downturn. If Obama was smarter he'd focus on the economy before pushing down big legislation like this stuff. On the other hand isn't there still solid evidence for global warming? We should find ways to deal with it without huge debt or job losses.

[DavidAKZ]

I think the jury is out as to the causes of global warming

[europa]

The debate is does Carbon determine Temperature or does Temperature determine Carbon.

There is global warming...and global cooling

[buzzz121]

Global whining

[ChaoticSouls]

krugman got it right for once deflation is problem.. Mish rocks he gets it.

[58robbo]

deflation is only a problem if the govt gets in the way! eg, fdr created minimum wages in an era where there was a shortage of cash. imo, deflation is only bad for debt. the consumer sees his wages drop, but so do prices therefore zero sum game imo

[samann95014]

great analysis but one can be a little more optimistic than that. i have faith in smart folks in US. we have always recovered from recession & depression.

[burnt2acrisp]

@samann95014 Past performance does not indicate future results :-) I do hope you are right though.

[DavidAKZ]

what exporting military conflict ?

[neshkod]

deflation is here but you cant see if you measure it in fiat

[asdasdasdasdasd23456]

there are a lot of these programmers turned economist bloggers - mish, denninger.... its interesting because they all talk total crap. all mish ever drones on about is deflation vs inflation. he totally missed the gold bubble despite its obviousness.

[special1740]

There are 600 trillion dollars worth of outstanding derivatives.

The world's GDP is 60 trillion.

What happens when this pyramid collapses?

[DavidAKZ]

Yep. No one wants to talk about this. How could there be inflation of asset prices with this level of outstanding debt ? Food and energy as different story I think

[exposingcrooks2009]

Shedlock is just another mainstream media haml like barry Ritholtz and others who do nothing but kiss ass to the media so their blogs will be known to the sheep. day. How are they qualified to speak to anyone other than dogs about investments or the economy??? Its amazing how stupid to guys are. You are ready to give anyone merit who is presented to you.

[ryanthomastew]

Odd how did you come to this? How many times has MISH been on FOX/CNBC/MSNBC? Give me an example where he is kissing the media's ass. He constantly criticizes Bernanke, Obama and Geitner which is not what the MSM tends to do.

If anyone should read MISH's blog it's you.

[samann95014]

pessimistic subscribers to his blog made his blog popular with high traffic

[ryanthomastew]

Realistic subscribers. I'm super optimistic that our economy will bounce back but only if the government gets out of the way. IF the govt. continues to interfere than our recovery will be prolonged, painful and drawn out.

[DavidAKZ]

It's funny how realism is described as pessimism these days

[ryanthomastew]

So true.  ;^)

[njedinjedi]

Mish seems to be edgy about the increasing dollar weakness on his blog.

Sure, the dollar may bounce back somewhat thru October & November, but beyond that the dollar index at 70, 60, 50, is not supportive of the deflationist view

[TraderSteveR]

I agree with you 30P. I will state there were certainly moments of deflation in 2008 (for reasons you've mentioned). I don't think anyone could say that real estate and stocks had not deflated in any sense of the word last year.

You are correct however, it's the dollar. He needs to look at the dollar for the macro-view.

The banks may not not be lending (the reason for his deflationary stance) but most everything as priced in US dollar terms is inflating, just as you're stating, 30P.

[30percentplusreturns]

We dont have deflation. That is a lie spread by the central bankers so it gives them free reign to print money without the public going crazy. Commodity prices collapsing the past year wasnt deflation, it was forced liquidations from investments banks like lehman and bear going bust. All their contracts were liquidated. Thats no deflation. Its all a scam. Supermarket prices are soaring everyday. Its insane. Just go to a restaurant. The menu changes everyday and prices are whited out constantly

[TraderSteveR]

An interesting item is Mike's assertion that China needs to buy dollars. Well, I agree in part, but the wheels for that argument are now falling off. He states that they have no choice but to buy, but as we are now seeing, the Fed is now buying US debt. From one pocket to the other by slight of hand. It is nonsense, and the parasite is now feeding on itself. Mike calls himself a student of Austrian economics, yet Austrian economics by definition calls this an era of inflation. Time will tell.

[haveabeer123]

What do you make of Bob Prechter calling for a new deflationary collapse of the stock market and a rally on the dollar? He is actually bullish on the dollar? He just said this on November 4th... and he says it´s going to last for a long time?

[30percentplusreturns]

To be honest with you, I have no clue what to think anymore. The dollar could rally massively but at the same time it could collapse. The bottom line is that foreign countries are getting rid of dollars for gold. India just bought half of the imf gold. I have half my money in physical gold and silver, and the rest in mostly in cash looking to buy stocks of great companies on the cheap. Im actually sick of trying to forecast what will happen. Both sides have great arguments.

[30percentplusreturns]

Guys like mish just look at the Japanese model and how they printed and still have deflation, yet they fail to recognize Japan didnt have the world reserve currency. Commodities arent traded in Yen mish. Why is oil trading higher today than in 2003-2006 when our economy was good? Its because the dollar mish. Thats inflationary. If we had deflation, oil would be still around 20, not 70!!! We didnt have deflation, we had forced liquidations from banks and hedge funds getting margin calls.

[30percentplusreturns]

Mish keeps calling for deflation because he looks at a declining CPI. I thought this guy was smart enought to realize that the CPI is really CP-lie. Inflation is raging mish. We dont have deflation. Our currency is collapsing everyday and you are talking about deflation???? Gold hits new highs and you talk about deflation,lolololol? This guy cant be more wrong. The USA will have hyperinflation or at least 30% inflation for years. This deflation is just propoganda so central banks can print.

[30percentplusreturns]

Mish is a registered investment advisor, lololol. This guy couldnt pick a stock if his life depended on it. Wake up people. Economists make terrible investors. Mish is a proponent of deflation, yet every week prices at the supermarket are rising, gasoline is rising, car insurance and the like, all rising. He says gold will go down but he doesnt tell you gold is a better performer during deflations throughout history. This guy will make you go broke.

[jsusanmay]

before you pass your harsh judgement on Mish, consider the return on his investement in order to be more scientific

[TraderSteveR]

JSUSANMAY, I can't seem to find his returns other than at SitkaP, which frankly I am not overly impressed with. If you could provide more info that would be appreciated.

[tryptala]

Are you like a complete idiot? He's an economist? Where'd you get that idea? Did you even listen to the video? Check out 39:00. He says over and over that gold does well in deflation. Rising prices is not inflation. It may be a symptom of inflation. Deflation is a contraction of the money supply and lending. The banks have the money but they're not lending and consumers are maxed out on debt, and are having their credit contracting, and are now saving instead of spending. Try and listen, child.

[spanishaustralian]

Im glad Austrian Economics gets mentioned

We need to adopt Austrian economics and piss off this keynesian crap

[jiboguy]

@ 28:53 What don't we need any more of?

[spanishaustralian]

sluts

[rmish06]

weird.. my last name is Mish

[rudyt]

The deflation tht you're talking about is the result of the slowing 'tms' from 2005-2008.Where u will be way off is ur misundrstandng how the Fed will get their trilions inthe publics hands.Even if they can't the to govt will be the biggest spenders while consumers hold back. The 'TMS' of today will lead to masive inflation in the coming years.What I'm surprised at is your confidence in the Fed NOT being able to get the inflation out there.Deposits into bank accnts is not out of the question

[rosycarolina]

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[dave777blaster]

The trouble with economists is that they know nothing about much else

the only equation you need to understand is this one

3% of the world (American middle class) uses 25% of all the oil and other resources mined ,drilled and manufactured each year

This can no longer be allowed to be the bar for all nations to aspire to

For the last 25 yrs the middle class has been sliding into the third world

this is not a recession or depression it is a contrive permanent event

[acesas]

what about technological unemployment . i understand that Austrian economics talks about it but at this point i feel it at this time displaces workers . how are people going to stuff and when china gets going on they will be displacing workers . so who is going to buy stuff ? i think Austrian economics is outdated it was built on ideas that are much older than its own idea .

[Shadyhunter04]

It's called comparative advantage - it has nothing to do with Austrian economics since the idea pre-dates that. Temporary technical and trade unemployment is a fact of life and most economists agree with that to a large degree on both.

If you're gonna call it outdated, then call modern economics outdated too since this is one of the many things all economists agree on.

If we were still worried about displaced workers because of technology and trade we would still be in the dark ages.

[trx450head]

Mish speaks the truth. If you have followed him for any length of time you will understand his wisdom. We need more people like him, and they need to run for Congress/

[zeekle]

This is the best video of 2009.

I'd like to see a Mish Q&A video like this at least once a year.

[everst]

at 32:56 he is wrong.

if the USA is running a deficit, it could be financed by domestic savings. such was the case during ww2 and japan in the 90s.

also, i think he is mistaken to dismiss inflation fears.

[Astrocreep69]

I disagree.

I think Mish is totally correct for dismissing inflation fears.

[jonathans8]

when he talks about deflation, he's talking about credit collapsing at a faster rate than the monetary supply increasing. so he does know that inflation is happening. and he does understand that when lending comes back, we'll be doing the same thing we did to lead to his "deflationary spiral" -- except with a bigger money supply and more worthless cash.

mish does not dismiss inflation. he dismisses hyperinflation. there is a difference.

[jiggystardust]

It seems another common misconception is that Mish dismisses the possibility of inflation. My reading of his blog posts is that he's dismissive of HYPERinflation and there is a big fucking difference between the two.

[DavidAKZ]

WWII (& III) financed with debt. Google IOUSA

[stoneeh]

"we've never had fractional reserve lending"

oh my god. he is wrong about so many things. how about before 1913?

[SonicDeathMonk3y]

There was fractional reserve lending before 1913. It's what led to the many bank collapses that led to the creation of the federal reserve in the first place.

[kevcarpenter]

You obviously did not listen closely to Mish's comments. He said "we have not had a free market with no fractional reserve lending", which is a double negative. Therefore, he is saying we have always had fractional reserve lending and he is speaking in the context of developed markets.

[mthnrl]

Now there will be inflation ? hahahaha

I thought he just stated some months ago that there would be deflation ! =/

[chitons21]

MISH YOU GEEK!!!

I say that in the most positive sense since I am also a software engineer (although not nearly so nervous in front of crowds as Mish appeared to be).

[DavidAKZ]

A strength of his convictions

[microfactory]

IF the US-policy-makers were indeed interested in creating jobs and reducing America's dependence on foreign resources then there's renewable energy and efficiency:

Just one example:

Solar hot water capacity added worldwide (2008):

China: 80.2 %

USA: 0.5 %

tinyurl . com / mvdf6l

Either there is no sun in the US or China is wealthier or the US policy maker don't seriously care about reducing America's dependence on foreign resources and more importantly generating valuable jobs.

[jchan1979]

Great Video, if only he and Ron Paul could be heard more in the media.

[Tuza]

Mish is profoundly insightful. Thanks for the video.

[sysFail81]

Is housing bubble the biggest? what about population bubble? Not funny.

[DavidAKZ]

'Cap and trade', renewable energy ?

[BrainChild666]

at 17:30 the reason banks arent lending is the federal Reserve is paying them intersest on the moneys they hold in reserve. Why lend it out when your garranteed payment by the feds?

[DavidAKZ]

Because the real world economy of goods and services is going down the tubes. Know anyone who i) lost their job, ii) house.?

[luvdupraver]

I like the way he sounds a bit uncomfortable. Proves that you don't have to be a slick public speaker to have a great perspective. More power to the Mish.

[MaskedRetriever]

I think eliminating the concept of leveraged lending is, ah, a bit extreme. Isn't that kind of setting aside a monetary technology which has existed basically forever?

Admittedly, America experienced bank panics on a regular basis due to this, but we got out of them for a good while with old fashioned regulation. This crusade against the FED seems at least as quixotic as William Jennings Bryan vs. the Gold Standard.

[lookmaable]

It appears you have never heard of the Austrian School of Economics - Ludwig von Mises, Murray Rothbard, F.A. Hayek, etc.

Hayek won a Nobel prize for his work on the Austrian Theory of Business Cycle (ATBC).

ATBC is simplistically about the FED printing fiat currency, pumping the new money into the banking system to lower interest rates, which leads to an unsustainable credit expansion and eventual bust (like Greenspan's recent housing boom). A gold (commodity) standard prevents this.

[DavidAKZ]

Leverage= debt economy. Put it this way. How long could you maintain your standard of living if you lost your job tomorrow ? Google ''Money as Debt"

[koloss999]

I disagree with 40:00

Gold is an inflation hedge but it depends on where you are in the cycle. Gold was at its high in 1980 after high inflation had led everybody into it. It's only natural it went down after that despite the inflation throughout the following 20 years.

[lookmaable]

You misunderstand and misstate Mish's point.

From his blog:

"The idea that gold does well in periods of inflation and deflation is easily disproved. Gold fell from over $800 to $250 over the course of 20 years with inflation all the way. The reality is gold does well in periods of high economic stress (deflation, stagflation, hyperinflation, and periods of prolonged credit stress)."