Who Wins the Caucuses?

[fridginators]

Hahaha oh Michael, Santorum 6%. Oh well, you made this prediction four days early, but still, lol.

[Sahluful]

Michael, if Romney wins the presidency, we have you to blame for it.

[IamYoddle]

@AngeliqueStP ???

[Sahluful]

It was Rick Santorum at 24.6%, Mitt Romney at 24.5%, Ron Paul at 21.5%, Newt Gingrich at 13.3%, Rick Perry at 10.3% and Michele Bachmann at 5%.

The only thing Michael got right is that Ron Paul wouldn't win Iowa.

[jesushatesyoutoo]

@Sahluful Please tell me how Santorum has a higher percentage than Romney when Romney beat him by 8 votes?

[Sahluful]

@jesushatesyoutoo That was before the final results were tallied.

[WarThug13]

oh well shure you lucked out looks like you get 25 bucks

[danfromabove]

Ron Paul is the only candidate who has a platform which conforms with the mandates of reality in any way. The collapse is upon us in many fields; financial, economic, oil production, ecological - you name it. This much can be proven on the back of a napkin and in this context we cannot afford 4 more years of false hope for an external salvation through politcal or technological coordination.

[NooneEatsCandyCorn]

Whatever dude..your out of your mind.

[Johntkr]

You are right about there being too many polls to give a personal opinion. How could predictions on candidates in a statistical tie allow Michael to evade a seeping of personal opinions? In a prior presentation by Michael, he ignored Paul's viability and suggested that Huntsman was on the rise. Core to competent research is seeing a pattern among the studies and recognizing that there is a margin of error that leaves Paul and Mr. Companies are People in a statistical tie.

[Sahluful]

@Johntkr Except, Santorum's now tied with Romney in Iowa.

[Johntkr]

@Sahluful Santorum should send Shure a thank you note.

[Sahluful]

@Johntkr Why do you say that?

[Johntkr]

@Sahluful Shure downplayed Paul like the general media, which helped Santorum make a better showing. Also, Michael pointed out every available criticism, not just in this video about Paul, and related little or nothing about Santorum's problems. Cenk provides pluses and minuses about candidates, acknowledges statistical ties, rather than simply saying who he thinks is going to win. General media states their conclusions as if it is the basis of their rationales as to who will win, like Michael.

[Sahluful]

@Johntkr Michael was confident to the point of arrogant about Paul losing and Romney winning, which is why I was annoyed that he turned out to be right.

[Johntkr]

@Sahluful Michael, along with general media poised Romney as the likely winner, which directed him votes in the process. So Michael, along with general media cannot be right about their predictions like who will be the number one tennis player in the world. They can be right like pawns to the oligarchy who shape views, rather than report everyday peoples' political perspectives.

[Sahluful]

@Johntkr However, since Iowa is irrelevant, Romney winning the caucus means that he won't win the nomination.

[Johntkr]

@Sahluful Iowa is a stepping stone that by itself is inconclusive. Albeit, like most subjects of study, when combined with other events it is relevant. Meaning if Paul was given a fair chance by the media, he probably would not only have won Iowa, but have even more success in general. So you are right about Iowa by itself, but reiterate that it is relevant when combined with other events; like the SAT alone or grades alone vs combined. People like us can help make the media honest.

Cheers!

[dAda313]

yo Michael, are you Shure?

[deqdweoifjiow]

This guy is the clown of TYT.

[Johntkr]

Michael Shure, you fail to present any of your research; you assert your conclusions as if it is the bases of your rationals. For example, your 1,000 bet description does not include sources for your prediction on which R will win in Iowa. Please drive ideas with facts or please leave TYT; the strength of keeping it real is keeping it factually based. Cenk uses facts with specific sources for his research; please learn from Cenk, Shure. You have been on TYT for too long to not know this.

[oolong2]

@Johntkr

Cenk & Micheal have completely different shows. One is news oriented the other is just politics.

Following politics is like following sports. You don't hear sports anchors validating every opinion, because they are mostly just applying personal experience to a wide variety of inputs.

Just like when people place a sports bet. What they are really doing is saying "I bet my gut feeling on who's going to win against yours". Its hardly ever based on anything quantifiable.

[Johntkr]

@oolong2 Sports and making predictions on who will win that are based off personal experience is the core fun of it. Political commentary can often shape views on who will be our next President. Michael counts Ron Paul out, even though all the major polls show him at a statistical margin of error tie with Mr. Corporations are People. Keep in mind that Gingrich was Shure's initial pick. So I think Cenk is doing a great job with being fact driven and Michael should exclusively cover sports.

[dadumbazz]

@Johntkr there are too many sources and most of them are opinions. Citing them would just be silly as even choosing the ones that you think are relevant is also purely based on your own opinion.

[snuckyr]

how about Ron Paul as the biggest winner? It's amazing how he went from complete outsider to front runner! everybody has to take him seriously now!

[Sahluful]

Santorum will rank third. Gingrich will be fourth, Perry will be fifth.

[dafttool]

Interesting choice about the FEMA head. It was an even worse year than your profile implied. There were 12 individual billion dollar disasters (most thanks to climate change), but the overall total for America was $52 billion with nary a complaint. The worst I heard was with the tornadoes hitting Joplin, Missouri, which was nearly catastrophically wiped off the map, & the Northeast Corridor dealing with Hurricane Irene, which wasn't really FEMA's fault but the various states not being prepared.

[dafttool]

Who wins the caucuses? Not the voters, that for sure.

[elitemathlete]

oops caucuses, no write in candidates over there.

[elitemathlete]

Nelson Turffgelt. Write in candidate.

[CognosSquare]

@elitemathlete about 3 Iowans can spell Turffgelt.

[VectorArrow]

Would have guessed Herman Cain for #1 loser.

[BrotherAlpha]

Romney: 30%

Ron Paul: 20%

Gingrich: 15%

Santorum: 14%

Perry: 11%

Bachmann: 9%

Huntsman: 1%

[IszyStone]

Seriously forgot Jon Huntsman was still in the race until I watched this.

[valflyinf]

Fuck that RP wins.

[DangerousTalk]

Weiner? He didn't even do anything wrong and he can come back in a year or two just like Spitzer did. Weiner will hopefully run again for office.

[sdfsdfs13]

Mitt Romney the Flip-Floper?? Really? You are really beting on people stupidity aren't you?

[seabazzz]

come on michael. stay above the commercilizing.

love the segent, but keeep it real.

[Sull604]

Epic Politics Man!! Nice predictions.

[Nemesis000000]

Fuegate was probably chosen so the term "Fuegate-gate" wouldn't resonate if something happened

[rkrueger77]

What? Mitt Romney the flip flopper is going to win??? yeah, if the caucus is hijacked.... wait its going to a "disclosed" location...

[yougottabekiddinmee]

Who the hell does this guy think he is? Jimmy the Greek of politics!

What an A&^(*&%!

RP 2012!

[MarshallLore]

Mitt Romney #1 lmao

[gold95]

This is what happens when you hire a moron to give his brain dead opinion.... but he'll be out $1000 on Tuesday....LOL

[gold95]

Ron Paul has risen and fallen? Give your paycheck back, because you are a moron... Here is another dishonest leftist who wold be crushed in a debate with Ron Paul...

The winner is RON PAUL, you fool... he changed the debate, he overcame all odds... you are the LOSER with an "L"

[americanIDOLfan11111]

RON PAUL WILL WIN THE IOWA CAUCUSES

[IamYoddle]

I predict somebody will be loosing 1,000 dollars....

[ronpaulbot]

@IamYoddle Shure is doubling down on his hate of Ron Paul because of his ego.

[BrotherAlpha]

@IamYoddle Nate Silver has Romney winning 63% of the time.

[IamYoddle]

@BrotherAlpha LOL he sources a "we ask American poll" which not only did just republicans(excluded independents when Paul has 39% of them) but matches NONE of the polls released at the same time. Also they polled under 900 people and they aren't even a legitimate polling organization, they don't even release the polling methodology.

I don't trust Nate Silver, he should source legitimate polls.

[Mordicay1849]

@IamYoddle Oh come on, you're just buttmad 'cause Ron Paul doesn't come out on top in that poll. Why does it fucking matter?

[IamYoddle]

@Mordicay1849 "Buttmad" for raises a legitimate point that the poll they source is not credible? It doesn't matter, he replied me saying some guy says Romney has a 60% chance of winner and I showed this guys sources are flawed. Of course Romney has a chance of winning, but its 50/50 between him a Paul according to credible polls.

[BrotherAlpha]

@IamYoddle He uses tons of polls. Ron Paul's numbers have been slipping. RCP has him in second place and falling.

By the way, 900 is a lot of people. Most polls use about 500.

[IamYoddle]

@BrotherAlpha Exactly he uses tons of stupid polls, and its 900 among ONLY republican voters completely ignoring the Independents. RCP has them at a statistical tie, so again their is no way you can say Romney has a 60% chance of winning.

[Sahluful]

@IamYoddle Nope. Turns out, Cenk now owes Michael 40 bucks.

[IamYoddle]

@Sahluful Yep... I guess I thought the Republican voters were a little bit smarter.

[WarThug13]

@Sahluful Its sad really, I thought Iowa was better than that.

[Sahluful]

@WarThug13 Iowa is the same state that chose Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson. This is nothing new for them.

[jesushatesyoutoo]

@IamYoddle I hope it was you! Ron Paul didn't win even though in you mind he is the king of the world. By the way Michael is $1000 richer!

[IamYoddle]

@jesushatesyoutoo No in my mine he is better than the corporatist warmongers running against him and in the white house that are all cowards themselves but send the poor off to die in useless wars for their personal gain.

Michael is $25 richer by the way..

[jesushatesyoutoo]

@IamYoddle You know that Bush isn't the president any more right. That the War in Iraq is over, Ben Laden is dead, as is Gaddafi, and the white house is having peace talks with the Taliban. You mean those war mongers who end wars?

[IamYoddle]

@jesushatesyoutoo Obama kept 17,000 contractors(AKA mercenaries) in Iraq, he tried to stay in Iraq past the Bush deadline, he attacked Libya when they didn't act aggressive in anyway towards us, he had this massive expansion in Afghanistan, hes been bombing Pakistan, bombed Somalia, threatening war on Iran when they did NOTHING towards us. Plus he has over 900 military bases around the world, inciting more violence and terrorism toward us,

Obama = Warmonger.

[BrotherAlpha]

@IamYoddle Ron Paul asked for more earmarks than most congressmen, even though he campaigns against them.

He also wanted to give the president the ability to raise private armies and give Letters of Marquee to private captains. He would continue the wars, he would just privatize them.

He's scary. He does have one or two good idea (end the drug war, he would improve privacy in some areas) but he has a lot of crackpot ones as well.

[IamYoddle]

@BrotherAlpha earmarks are good, you know where the money is going. Things like tarp have no earmarks, we have no idea where the money is going. He gets his district back the money, away from the government that spends it on wars.

He wouldn't continue the wars, he is against the private contractors we have their. Letters of Marquee is allowed under the constitution and is a good way to capture pirates or terrorist cheaply, without US troops dying and was used by the founders.

[AngeliqueStP]

@IamYoddle FYI..... *losing :)

[itubeutude]

santorum 6% ??? he's currently polling 3rd.

[mybroisavirgin]

even though I disagree with Ron Paul on many issues, I really want him to beat Obama

[kermanshahi213]

@mybroisavirgin Ron Paul is the only Republican which can beat Barrack Obama, and I sure hope he will remove the butcher of Libya from office.

[jesushatesyoutoo]

@kermanshahi213 Then make sure we make him run as an independent!

[fabes0011]

@mybroisavirgin is it obama pushing congress to remove exception on US citizens in ndaa for indefinite detention, lying about stopping unconstitutional wars and civil liberties abuses. Thinking Fast & Furious was good idea and mismanagement of F&F where ATF supervisors were allowing guys to walk and Holder trying to cover his ass. Massive mismanagement where people have died and govt officials saying gun violence has increased. guns were allowed to walk to drug cartel crims

[yadsik]

:( poor Jon

[metooblueshoes]

i wonder if ron paul will have a weird nader efect on the presidential race. snatching up progressive voters

[dafttool]

@metooblueshoes Count on it. Especially if he runs 3rd party as I suspect he'll have to ...because there is NO WAY the GOP will nominate him. What I wonder is will he "steal" more GOP, Independent or Dem votes? He seems to draw a little from each group. What he will insure is that no winner will be over 50%, like when Ross Perot divided up the votes in 1992, allowing Clinton to beat Bush Sr.

[Nethr]

I saw Wiener's scandal cumming from a mile away. I knew god has a great sense of humor.