500 years ago we didnt think the world was flat 13th century pico pataun said " unless people start livng in natural time we ille ultimately reach a period of biospherical distruction" no comment on the world being flat in 1230 A.D plus going on 4th and log is the best choce :)
I did a study on this team's last season. Had they punted or kicked on every 4th down, they would have lost games. The majority of drives in which they converted a 4th down conversion, they scored. They rarely turned the ball over in anyway. The most common turnover was the turnover on downs. They needed to do this to be champions.
science dont work in sports, on average doesnt mean shit, cuz sometimes you get it, sometimes you dont, it dont matter how many times on average it was done before, the average number can change, my proof is that professor who calculated who gon win the nba title, he said cavs i said lakers, n i didnt use nothin but nba knowledge, n the cavs lost in 2nd round, lakers won the title...
This wouldn't work in the NFL.. NFL players are too good and fast, highschool players just suck... Though I think teams should go for it when its only like an inch.
HE might be right about the numbers but he's wrong about the history. No one thought the earth was flat 500 years ago, that's an urban legend. We've known it was round since the Ancient Greeks and probably before that.
@beerborn Correct. The combination of a bigger field (harder to cover), offensive backfield in motion and three downs tends to encourage more passing and scrambling than the usual NFL "three yards and a cloud of dust" so despite what you might expect, there tends to be more scoring than in the NFL. Incidentally, there was an SCTV skit where John Candy said that Canadian football also has four downs but Canadians like to punt on third down just to be on the safe side.
@beerborn Correct, but in the context of this theory, punting is worth more in CFL football...
In the CFL, a ball that is kicked through the endzone (whether it's a missed fieldgoal, long punt or long kickoff) is worth a single point. Along with the longer field and endzone, the above statistics would need to be recalculated.
@jonnyiscool28 not really it works with CFL football too. Problem is that the CFL only has three downs. If it had four and the single point score (Non PAT) It would be an equal magnitude of the defense giving up a PAT.
I respect the coach for being different, but I'm not so sure that going for it all the time is very smart. If it's 4th and 25 and you have the ball on your own 1 yard line with 12 seconds left in the game with a 1 point lead, the chances of making the first down are slim, so why would you risk giving the ball back to the other team in scoring position? Like all other decisions, it should be based on what kind of team you have, what kind of opponent you're going up against, and the situation.
@norsemustang In this situation the punt is obvious since the time can cause a turnover (via inability to score before time expires). If they run around for 12 seconds and don't get a safety or a first down then it is a double turnover and they win. Two choices here, and punting is obvious.
Good thing that only 5 of the 32 NFL head coaches have coached at the HS level. A place where you don't get criticized as much if you go for it on 4th down. Also a place where you can't afford to win on the Jimmy's and Joe's alone. HS football to me is a way tougher level to win at than the NFL. The NFL coaches do not start out at that level. Neither do most college coaches. It is all about who you know and what level you played at as a player. Kevin Kelly would win in the NFL.
for those who need more help: Complete Turnovers: Interceptions, fumbles lost, missed fg's, punts, 4th down fails, kickoffs lost, safeties, and turnovers due to time.
Half Turnovers: Failed extra point or 2pat, Successful field goal, 2point conversion allowed.
Luckily none of these NFL Head Coaches have had to coach in the NFL. If you look at every event that causes a turnover without first scoring atleast 6 points, then the team with the most of these events at the end of the game always loses the game. Look up any game's play by play and add up these events and you will see that it is true.
high school and nfl is different.... in the nfl you have all those star players (bob sanders, troy polumalu, ray lewis, london fletcher, patrick willis, brian urlacher, and those pass rushers like jared allen, dwight freeney, etc. in the nfl it's a high risk/high reward scenario, in high school it's a bunch of kids, most of whom can't really tackle.
@Gambitgirl1974 that's stupid. in the nfl you have people like ray lewis, patrick willis, ed reed, troy polumalu etc. even if you have barry sanders you could lose a bunch of yards.
The Players on this team have a mind set that they are going to go for it on fourth down so unike other teams, the players know they have four downs to get a first down and that there is not as much pressure to make it on third down. And the other team has to adjust to playing a team that goes for it on fourth down. the season this was filmed The Pulaski Academy Bruins went 13-1 and won a 5A state Championship.
Unless this guy is winning every game, I'm going to doubt that he does it because they needed an extra challenge. The question should probably be does his team win games because of this, or despite of this? Do they lose games because of this, or does this keep them in games?
Also, his point seemed to revolve around the results of making it vs missing it, not necessarily the percentage of making it (although that would have to factor in).
I agree for the most part to go for it everytime that field position is good and it is just a small amount of yards. But look, it only favors you by 1.9% more than not going for it. Anyone who says never punt is and IDIOT, point blank. Now, put this High School coach on a team that has a horrible record and lets see if he changes his mind. His arogance may dwindle as the oppoents points add up at stop watch pace.
I checked the stats and the 2009 NFL 4th down conversion percentage and it was 51 % which puts the odds in the favor of the offense as far as numbers. But remember, this is not going for it on long situations. The average amount of yards per attempt is just 2.5 yards. The coaches in this video are right on to criticize the lab tech guy.
I like the agressive aspect of it, I just do not see it EVER happening in the NFL or on a wide spread use. I think that speaks volumes. This High School team does it because they are dominant and needed an extra challenge to make the game fun I am sure. If the idea is good, its used. No one does this. Statistics are made up by unathletic people in a lab ya know. I agree with going for it in most cases, don't get me wrong, but not on 4th and say 15 or something of that nature.
This is just being cocky. it has nothing to do with statistics or odds. They are just that good and now they have a big story. Punting is a part of the games great history and a strategic action in most cases. Not punting at all is dumb. Especially on your own 4 yard line. Its aragance.
obviously, you are entitled to your opinion, and I would agree with you if there were not statistics to back up his philosophy. Maybe not punting at all is not the answer, but there is some validity in being more aggressive on 4th down. The "that's what people have always done" is a tired and worn out reason for doing things. Luckily, we have guys that thought the forward pass could be used more effectively than just out of necessity or we would see NFL teams in the single wing and wishbone.
The average net punt over the last 8 years in the NFL is 37.9 yards. The highest average of any single team over that time period is Oakland with 40.8 (big thanks to Shane Lechler). In high school, a net of 30 is probably above average.
How is it when my offense is on the opponents 10-yard line I have a 92% chance of scoring.....yet when my team is on defense on our 5-yard line, our opponents have a 92% chance of scoring on us. Doesn't make sense to me.
Start playing the video at 5:20, the coach states that if his team is on offense inside the opposing 10-yard line, they have 92% chance of scoring. Then at 5:37, he says if his team turns the ball over inside their own 5-yard line, the other team will have a 92% chance of scoring. What if his opponents turned the ball over inside their own 5-yard line? According to the video at 5:20, now he has a 92% chance of scoring That's where he contradicts himself.
500 years ago we didnt think the world was flat 13th century pico pataun said " unless people start livng in natural time we ille ultimately reach a period of biospherical distruction" no comment on the world being flat in 1230 A.D plus going on 4th and log is the best choce :)
toweyzeebabee 5 months ago
He doesn't have faith in his defense
jporchay0256 6 months ago
I did a study on this team's last season. Had they punted or kicked on every 4th down, they would have lost games. The majority of drives in which they converted a 4th down conversion, they scored. They rarely turned the ball over in anyway. The most common turnover was the turnover on downs. They needed to do this to be champions.
rushingfn 7 months ago
on average san diego were first on offense and defense last season but look what happened. i say punt it.
EWGFus3r 7 months ago
THIS IS JUST A KICK TO THE FACE FOR ALL PUNTERS
MrPa1310 9 months ago
GREAT STUFF COACH, KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK
prothrowbacks 1 year ago
science dont work in sports, on average doesnt mean shit, cuz sometimes you get it, sometimes you dont, it dont matter how many times on average it was done before, the average number can change, my proof is that professor who calculated who gon win the nba title, he said cavs i said lakers, n i didnt use nothin but nba knowledge, n the cavs lost in 2nd round, lakers won the title...
illman300 1 year ago
@illman300 Haha. You're an idiot.
MrLiquidHound 1 year ago 3
@illman300 You realize that you're not very bright, right? Those two scenarios are entirely unrelated.
Bobby3OOO 8 months ago
@illman300 Do you play the lotto sir?
rushingfn 7 months ago
What they also left out is that they almost always go for two and always kick onside..
cacmustang57 1 year ago
@cacmustang57 very true. The onside kicks were not always onsides. They sometimes just kicked it out of bounds intentionally.
rushingfn 7 months ago
The has the best winning percentage in the state so it must not be all bad..
cacmustang57 1 year ago
In highschool almost every team goes for it on 4th down, its nothing rare.
cpanthers88 1 year ago
@cpanthers88 Thats not true, teams punt all the time in high school.
apm54 8 months ago
Two things I always wondered.....( i played CFL rules ) so in the NFL...isnt the punt a loser play?
and the second is...if you do punt.....have two fastest players line up onside. is that legal in the NFL?
65-13.........nice record coach.
00Billy 1 year ago
This wouldn't work in the NFL.. NFL players are too good and fast, highschool players just suck... Though I think teams should go for it when its only like an inch.
lionslicer9999 1 year ago
The reason these coaches say "I bet he never coached a game" is because there are a lot of variables behind the statistics than just the numbers.
cliffburton333 1 year ago
With a philosophy like that he'll never make it past the HS level lol.
Rasdrizzy 1 year ago
HE might be right about the numbers but he's wrong about the history. No one thought the earth was flat 500 years ago, that's an urban legend. We've known it was round since the Ancient Greeks and probably before that.
DandeB88 1 year ago
That's awesome! I wish they would do this in the NFL.
emantabrizi 1 year ago
Correct me if I'm wrong but Canadian Football they only get 3 downs vs. American football of 4 downs?
beerborn 1 year ago
@beerborn Correct. The combination of a bigger field (harder to cover), offensive backfield in motion and three downs tends to encourage more passing and scrambling than the usual NFL "three yards and a cloud of dust" so despite what you might expect, there tends to be more scoring than in the NFL. Incidentally, there was an SCTV skit where John Candy said that Canadian football also has four downs but Canadians like to punt on third down just to be on the safe side.
jon1156 1 year ago
@beerborn Correct. But they still punt, and far too often.
specsthiele 1 year ago
@beerborn Correct, but in the context of this theory, punting is worth more in CFL football...
In the CFL, a ball that is kicked through the endzone (whether it's a missed fieldgoal, long punt or long kickoff) is worth a single point. Along with the longer field and endzone, the above statistics would need to be recalculated.
jonnyiscool28 1 year ago
@jonnyiscool28 not really it works with CFL football too. Problem is that the CFL only has three downs. If it had four and the single point score (Non PAT) It would be an equal magnitude of the defense giving up a PAT.
rushingfn 7 months ago
A high school team never punts? They all must been playing Madden NFL games.
darthrevan6 1 year ago
I respect the coach for being different, but I'm not so sure that going for it all the time is very smart. If it's 4th and 25 and you have the ball on your own 1 yard line with 12 seconds left in the game with a 1 point lead, the chances of making the first down are slim, so why would you risk giving the ball back to the other team in scoring position? Like all other decisions, it should be based on what kind of team you have, what kind of opponent you're going up against, and the situation.
norsemustang 1 year ago 2
@norsemustang In this situation the punt is obvious since the time can cause a turnover (via inability to score before time expires). If they run around for 12 seconds and don't get a safety or a first down then it is a double turnover and they win. Two choices here, and punting is obvious.
rushingfn 7 months ago
Good thing that only 5 of the 32 NFL head coaches have coached at the HS level. A place where you don't get criticized as much if you go for it on 4th down. Also a place where you can't afford to win on the Jimmy's and Joe's alone. HS football to me is a way tougher level to win at than the NFL. The NFL coaches do not start out at that level. Neither do most college coaches. It is all about who you know and what level you played at as a player. Kevin Kelly would win in the NFL.
rushingfn 1 year ago 2
for those who need more help: Complete Turnovers: Interceptions, fumbles lost, missed fg's, punts, 4th down fails, kickoffs lost, safeties, and turnovers due to time.
Half Turnovers: Failed extra point or 2pat, Successful field goal, 2point conversion allowed.
rushingfn 1 year ago
Luckily none of these NFL Head Coaches have had to coach in the NFL. If you look at every event that causes a turnover without first scoring atleast 6 points, then the team with the most of these events at the end of the game always loses the game. Look up any game's play by play and add up these events and you will see that it is true.
rushingfn 1 year ago
wow, this is pretty sweet. I wonder what the math says about taking the "guaranteed" 3 vs going for it in the red zone.
CelticKraut 1 year ago
@CelticKraut Just what he said: go for it. It leaves the opposing team with terrible field position.
jonnyiscool28 1 year ago
The real question is: Do they kick field goals?
SquishyYabor 1 year ago
@SquishyYabor no we do not kick field goals either.
thekeegs27 1 year ago
high school and nfl is different.... in the nfl you have all those star players (bob sanders, troy polumalu, ray lewis, london fletcher, patrick willis, brian urlacher, and those pass rushers like jared allen, dwight freeney, etc. in the nfl it's a high risk/high reward scenario, in high school it's a bunch of kids, most of whom can't really tackle.
jointhedomination 1 year ago
i hate going on 4th down unless you're down by more than 10 points.
EWGFus3r 1 year ago
i like the idea of not punting int he NFL. work for every yard ppl! don't give it away.
Gambitgirl1974 1 year ago
@Gambitgirl1974 that's stupid. in the nfl you have people like ray lewis, patrick willis, ed reed, troy polumalu etc. even if you have barry sanders you could lose a bunch of yards.
jointhedomination 1 year ago
i used to work in an economics department and my boss was a game theorist...yup he used economics to do this exact sort of shit with sports.
and he doesn't even like sports lol.
still, i liked him more for studying that.
Gambitgirl1974 1 year ago
i used to work in an economics department and my boss was a game theorist...yup he used economics to do this exact sort of shit with sports.
and he doesn't even like sports lol.
still, i liked him more for studying that.
Gambitgirl1974 1 year ago
The Players on this team have a mind set that they are going to go for it on fourth down so unike other teams, the players know they have four downs to get a first down and that there is not as much pressure to make it on third down. And the other team has to adjust to playing a team that goes for it on fourth down. the season this was filmed The Pulaski Academy Bruins went 13-1 and won a 5A state Championship.
Hogwild92 1 year ago 3
Unless this guy is winning every game, I'm going to doubt that he does it because they needed an extra challenge. The question should probably be does his team win games because of this, or despite of this? Do they lose games because of this, or does this keep them in games?
Also, his point seemed to revolve around the results of making it vs missing it, not necessarily the percentage of making it (although that would have to factor in).
dep33460 1 year ago
@dep33460 no disrespect, but the numbers don't lie. Hes won games and thats all that matters.
dxnlnd 1 year ago 10
@dxnlnd I agree. Please view my comments in context.
dep33460 1 year ago 2
I agree for the most part to go for it everytime that field position is good and it is just a small amount of yards. But look, it only favors you by 1.9% more than not going for it. Anyone who says never punt is and IDIOT, point blank. Now, put this High School coach on a team that has a horrible record and lets see if he changes his mind. His arogance may dwindle as the oppoents points add up at stop watch pace.
thecolvinfamily 1 year ago
I checked the stats and the 2009 NFL 4th down conversion percentage and it was 51 % which puts the odds in the favor of the offense as far as numbers. But remember, this is not going for it on long situations. The average amount of yards per attempt is just 2.5 yards. The coaches in this video are right on to criticize the lab tech guy.
thecolvinfamily 1 year ago
I like the agressive aspect of it, I just do not see it EVER happening in the NFL or on a wide spread use. I think that speaks volumes. This High School team does it because they are dominant and needed an extra challenge to make the game fun I am sure. If the idea is good, its used. No one does this. Statistics are made up by unathletic people in a lab ya know. I agree with going for it in most cases, don't get me wrong, but not on 4th and say 15 or something of that nature.
thecolvinfamily 1 year ago
@thecolvinfamily
It can happen. There was a time when teams never threw the ball.
Jikk 1 year ago
This is just being cocky. it has nothing to do with statistics or odds. They are just that good and now they have a big story. Punting is a part of the games great history and a strategic action in most cases. Not punting at all is dumb. Especially on your own 4 yard line. Its aragance.
thecolvinfamily 1 year ago
obviously, you are entitled to your opinion, and I would agree with you if there were not statistics to back up his philosophy. Maybe not punting at all is not the answer, but there is some validity in being more aggressive on 4th down. The "that's what people have always done" is a tired and worn out reason for doing things. Luckily, we have guys that thought the forward pass could be used more effectively than just out of necessity or we would see NFL teams in the single wing and wishbone.
dep33460 1 year ago 7
@thecolvinfamily "Its aragance"
LMFAO Get a spell check before you try to argue your point slick. :D
adrianbaxter1807 1 year ago
The average net punt over the last 8 years in the NFL is 37.9 yards. The highest average of any single team over that time period is Oakland with 40.8 (big thanks to Shane Lechler). In high school, a net of 30 is probably above average.
dep33460 1 year ago
@dep33460
Sorry to intrude...Q: If say 2 players line up behind the punter ('onside') , is this illegal formation in the NFL?
00Billy 1 year ago
@00Billy Not sure how it could be considered illegal.
dep33460 8 months ago
This coach keeps talking about how punters can only kick 30 yards ... Punters in the NFL average 50 yards a punt
downzzzzz 1 year ago
How is it when my offense is on the opponents 10-yard line I have a 92% chance of scoring.....yet when my team is on defense on our 5-yard line, our opponents have a 92% chance of scoring on us. Doesn't make sense to me.
Tyo77 2 years ago
I think you are confused. The stat is that if a team gets the ball inside the 10 yard line (+10 to +1), they have a 92% chance to score a TD.
dep33460 2 years ago
Start playing the video at 5:20, the coach states that if his team is on offense inside the opposing 10-yard line, they have 92% chance of scoring. Then at 5:37, he says if his team turns the ball over inside their own 5-yard line, the other team will have a 92% chance of scoring. What if his opponents turned the ball over inside their own 5-yard line? According to the video at 5:20, now he has a 92% chance of scoring That's where he contradicts himself.
Tyo77 2 years ago
What's the name of the song from 0:24 to 0:47??
OGGD 2 years ago
football is played on the field...not in an economists office. That guy probably never put pads on
shutytang 2 years ago
shutytang - maths are hard, science is confusing. You should yell at them and not listen to facts.
ThingNation 2 years ago