I am not disagreeing with anything you are saying, but I don trade gold and silver for any sort of deflation/inflation type trade. I trade trends and the tape. Fundamentals mean very little in the market, because people trade on emotion and that is why someone like me can get a leg up. I exploit it. I never try and justify something I am trading because it will make me trade it the wrong way. This video was for those who TRADE metals.
China buying gold over our DEBT! Listen, people told me I was crazy to start buying gold back last fall when it was under $700 an ounce. It ran to one k an ounce and I sold it. I trade, not fall in love with things I trade. Deflation does NOT exist and the more people tell me my trade is crazy, the more I like it. Metals are my bread and butter and I WILL make you money in them. That I can assure you.
Actually Anthony, they said that, and then, as the Chinese do, did the exact opposite.
It's good that we disagree - otherwise the markets would be a boring place, and everything would just go sideways.
I find it interesting that some traders argue against deflation, and they can't even define deflation accurately. They say things like: "It means cheaper prices and cheaper prices" or "cheaper prices feed themselves" and they have no clue what deflation actually IS, but then try to say
Look at CPI/PPI, deflation has not crept back into the economy. After seeing the data & the stark contrast as to what is happening here & in Canada, the fed will print money until there is inflation, I promise you that. Read Bernankes book, it is his game plan to a T! But the data does not show deflation in the US, but it does in Canada.
Have you read the papers he's wrote in the last 5 months that negate 90% of what he wrote in the book?
Deflation is only about 10% CPI and PPI. That's the mistake most people make about deflation. It's why when it happens, it really just knocks the wind out of most people, because they only are looking at the net effect.
And mind you - publicly for the last 4 months or so, I've been in the stagflation camp, rather than the inflation or straight deflation camp.
But when 150 trillion dollars disappears out of the system, and they print a ton of debt? That money, by it's very definition, cannot increase in velocity. It can't. Expectations can rise (part of which can appear in CPI and PPI), but expectations and actual velocity stream are two different things.
On top of that, you have their purchases into what is now the almost defunct TIPS market, which is what I was trying to point out to the hyper-deflationists, as to why we are going to be looking at stagflation for a while.
Why does Bernake publicly state that he is adding liquidity, adding liquidity, INCREASE THEIR BALANCE SHEET WITH TRASHED ITEMS and then in the SLOSH and alphabet soup programs, directly REMOVED liquidity.
The Fed is more Chinese at times than the Chinese.
VOL compared to what? equities? C'MON, you set yourself up for that... look at natty gas, want to talk volatile. Airelon will back me up on that. Do you criticize me trading metals while you toil around trading double and triple leveraged ETFs or use margin?
Sure. I'm not critcizing you. I don't trade ETF's. I hate ETF's. Margin? Dude, I trade $100 lots. LOL!!!!!! Small mofo money dude! LOL!!!!! For me, buying is much slower. I missed this ralley because I have no excess money to buy stocks. I have to wait.
I agree with some of your short term analysis. I respectivly disagree with your position long on gold. I really don't think we'll be moving out of this recession anytime soon. The average people out there simply are not buying gold as well as other non essentials. I think credit that is left is being used by big firms to buy up these assets. Notice the banks stocks didn't move up as well as the commodities in this rally. I think it's a lot of quick money, as it will leave quick.
Good for China. I'd rather buy something productive and usefull. Shiny gold bars mean nothing to me. I've already made money off of gold and silver stocks. In fact, I've been giving away my silver to people for birthdays and weddings!
so what is productive and useful? An axe, shovel, timber, dare I say stock? Anything denominated in USDs is inherently flawed in this argument is it not? At least silver and gold have tangible intrinsic value. Burn a dollar for all I care. Your way too hung up on the idea of trying to justify an investment. In my 8.5 years in the markets... never do that!
If I was a trader, I wouldn't care. Unfortunatly, I have to hang on to things for more than a day. Owning physical silver/gold is retarded. The end of the world isn't coming. We should have done something about it along time ago.
I am not disagreeing with anything you are saying, but I don trade gold and silver for any sort of deflation/inflation type trade. I trade trends and the tape. Fundamentals mean very little in the market, because people trade on emotion and that is why someone like me can get a leg up. I exploit it. I never try and justify something I am trading because it will make me trade it the wrong way. This video was for those who TRADE metals.
DavianLetter 2 years ago
Right I know. I should have explained that I was making fun of the metalheads that are burrying it in their backyards.
ohio1998 2 years ago
China buying gold over our DEBT! Listen, people told me I was crazy to start buying gold back last fall when it was under $700 an ounce. It ran to one k an ounce and I sold it. I trade, not fall in love with things I trade. Deflation does NOT exist and the more people tell me my trade is crazy, the more I like it. Metals are my bread and butter and I WILL make you money in them. That I can assure you.
DavianLetter 2 years ago
Actually Anthony, they said that, and then, as the Chinese do, did the exact opposite.
It's good that we disagree - otherwise the markets would be a boring place, and everything would just go sideways.
I find it interesting that some traders argue against deflation, and they can't even define deflation accurately. They say things like: "It means cheaper prices and cheaper prices" or "cheaper prices feed themselves" and they have no clue what deflation actually IS, but then try to say
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
that deflation doesn't exist.
Making money on shorter time frames of one to two weeks have VERY little to do with what the actual economy is all about.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Look at CPI/PPI, deflation has not crept back into the economy. After seeing the data & the stark contrast as to what is happening here & in Canada, the fed will print money until there is inflation, I promise you that. Read Bernankes book, it is his game plan to a T! But the data does not show deflation in the US, but it does in Canada.
DavianLetter 2 years ago
Have you read the papers he's wrote in the last 5 months that negate 90% of what he wrote in the book?
Deflation is only about 10% CPI and PPI. That's the mistake most people make about deflation. It's why when it happens, it really just knocks the wind out of most people, because they only are looking at the net effect.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
And mind you - publicly for the last 4 months or so, I've been in the stagflation camp, rather than the inflation or straight deflation camp.
But when 150 trillion dollars disappears out of the system, and they print a ton of debt? That money, by it's very definition, cannot increase in velocity. It can't. Expectations can rise (part of which can appear in CPI and PPI), but expectations and actual velocity stream are two different things.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
On top of that, you have their purchases into what is now the almost defunct TIPS market, which is what I was trying to point out to the hyper-deflationists, as to why we are going to be looking at stagflation for a while.
Why does Bernake publicly state that he is adding liquidity, adding liquidity, INCREASE THEIR BALANCE SHEET WITH TRASHED ITEMS and then in the SLOSH and alphabet soup programs, directly REMOVED liquidity.
The Fed is more Chinese at times than the Chinese.
AirelonTrading 2 years ago
Of coarse you can make money in the metals. they are the most volitle and that were you get big gains. For now.........
ohio1998 2 years ago
VOL compared to what? equities? C'MON, you set yourself up for that... look at natty gas, want to talk volatile. Airelon will back me up on that. Do you criticize me trading metals while you toil around trading double and triple leveraged ETFs or use margin?
DavianLetter 2 years ago
Sure. I'm not critcizing you. I don't trade ETF's. I hate ETF's. Margin? Dude, I trade $100 lots. LOL!!!!!! Small mofo money dude! LOL!!!!! For me, buying is much slower. I missed this ralley because I have no excess money to buy stocks. I have to wait.
ohio1998 2 years ago
I agree with some of your short term analysis. I respectivly disagree with your position long on gold. I really don't think we'll be moving out of this recession anytime soon. The average people out there simply are not buying gold as well as other non essentials. I think credit that is left is being used by big firms to buy up these assets. Notice the banks stocks didn't move up as well as the commodities in this rally. I think it's a lot of quick money, as it will leave quick.
ohio1998 2 years ago
Hmm. About people not buying gold (or silver) because they can´t afford it.
Isn´t centralbanks buying gold right now? I´ve heard that China is.
Could the centralbanks lust for gold replace the lack of the citizens lust for gold in making the price go up?
Just curious.
TheDFIANT 2 years ago
Good for China. I'd rather buy something productive and usefull. Shiny gold bars mean nothing to me. I've already made money off of gold and silver stocks. In fact, I've been giving away my silver to people for birthdays and weddings!
ohio1998 2 years ago
ohio, In parting i often jokingly say "remember me in your will. Please do . LOL
1mealperday 2 years ago
so what is productive and useful? An axe, shovel, timber, dare I say stock? Anything denominated in USDs is inherently flawed in this argument is it not? At least silver and gold have tangible intrinsic value. Burn a dollar for all I care. Your way too hung up on the idea of trying to justify an investment. In my 8.5 years in the markets... never do that!
DavianLetter 2 years ago
If I was a trader, I wouldn't care. Unfortunatly, I have to hang on to things for more than a day. Owning physical silver/gold is retarded. The end of the world isn't coming. We should have done something about it along time ago.
ohio1998 2 years ago