GPS: Niall Ferguson - Part 1 - July 4, 2010

[Dutchguy74]

Another economist that pretends he does not know it is the FED that sets the interest rates and even if nobody wants to lend money to the government , the fed can always print the money to pay the interest rate on the debt, with limited inflation as a result. in fact right now 49 % of the national debt is to the FED and intra governmental holdings.

the thing is they also wanna get rid of the FED lol, because they want small government on ideological grounds and the FED allows for bigger gov.

[geocachespoilers]

nice video

[damrak1969]

We need to:

1- cancel NAFTA

2- give massive tax breaks to and guarantee loans for domestic companies who will start manufactuing companies

3-get rid of the Bush tax cuts and start paying down the deficit

4- End all foreign aid and bring the majority of our troops home and sharply cut the defense budget and use that money for domestic programs.

5- Put those military people and the unemployed to work in public works projects

6- Institute term limits and make congressional lobbying illegal

[jp1090]

Ha Ha Ha.. YES! Liberal elitist Zareed is completely caught off guard when a Harvard intellectual- whom he admires- says that the Republicans are RIGHT..Yes, all of those "ignorant tea partiers" are fundamentally correct while Zareed and anyone else who takes Paul Krugman seriously are dead wrong.

[kraigthorne]

It sounds like Dr Ferguson likes Cains 9 9 9.

[oldickeastman]

So the choice between Krugman and Ferguson is 1) goose unemployment benefits and relief or 2) liquidate, cut taxes on corporations, value added (tax (tax all along the assembly line) -- cutting governement to fit the reduced tax on corporations. One says lets borrow more from Rothschild now and forget the consequences, the other says let the deflationary and austerity axes drop so Rothschild bonds appreciate -- so business can enjoy anarcho-capitalism Here is 3rd (populist) way: p_wv4NTNrxU

[bcfsl]

Eeerr, put down the bong, dumbass. High taxes are coming! Plus massive inflation. Your military forces will be dimsantled by your debt levels, without your enemy's even really having to do much. You yanks are fucked. Bye mofo's, have fun being China's and Islam's prison bitch.

[William00048]

My opinion of Ferguson has really tumbled after hearing this. Taxes have never been lower in the US and the US is a low tax economy to begin with. To suggest the poor take the hit, no medical care, no retirement and lower tax for the rich. What a complete and utter bastard.

[hrmIwonder]

So this guy's basically saying, "Let's impoverish 95% of people so the rich can keep their party going." We could instantly cut major spending by getting rid of the wart of the world's ass called the US military.

[suitabledude]

@hrmIwonder no, you're just an idiot...yes get rid of the military state, but yes, also get rid of the welfare/special-interest state.

[zuzupetals1999]

OK genius, if you happen to anything about John Keynes economics, (which Krugman claims to follow), stimulus programs were meant for a CONTROLLED ECONOMY. China is a perfect example as they can control the strength of their monetary system. The US is a FREE ECONOMY and there are too many variables that you cannot control, such a greed. Get your head out of your ass a pick up a book sometime. Krugman is in the same class as Bernanke. Everything is good in theory but reality is out of reach.

[infokemp]

Its not a case of Krugman is wrong and Ferguson is right - they are both right - as an economist I would do Ferguson's plan in the short term - backing the Euro and Dollar and pound by gold up to 50% and include energy and food and housing in inflation index of commodities for the other 50% then as deflationary pressure arises I would use krugmans policy for the long run but keep the backing of the currency by Gold and commodities - ie a fusion of monetarist and keynesian policies

[zuzupetals1999]

Krugman has casino mentality. Each hand of Blackjack you lose, double your bet until you finally win all your money back and then pay off your debt. That is unless you lose all of your money first. Krugman is an idiot. Niall Ferguson is a genius and no one disputes his comments.

[laudrup90]

@zuzupetals1999 .Wow some nobody on youtube comes up with a pathetic statement and so krugman is an idiot and ferguson is a genius?lol go away troll.They are both intelligent men with different perspectives.You are a troll.Simple.

[zuzupetals1999]

OK genius, if you happen to know anything about John Keynes economics, (which Krugman claims to follow), stimulus programs were meant for a CONTROLLED ECONOMY. China is a perfect example as they can control the strength of their monetary system. The US is a FREE ECONOMY and there are too many variables that you cannot control, such as greed. Get your head out of your ass a pick up a book sometime. Krugman is in the same class as Bernanke. Everything is good in theory but reality is out of reach.

[stopstickers]

FairTax, FairTax, FairTax!!!! [dot org]

[vorrifmn]

4:33 I love hearing this story, neiall talks about it all the time, haha

[move2003ny]

@escapeout yes, a long repayment span is a possibility, but if you take demographics into account the weight of an increasing debt on a reduced workforce reduces the likelihood of payment, arguably pushing interest rates upwards and possibly sending the economy into tailspin. Individual net savers do suffer with inflation, but the US economy as a whole is not exactly "a saver", and if the whole economy is in tatters, individual savers will fare no better.

[5danman5]

@escapeout

agreed. the savers like you and me need to find effective investments which will outpace inflation.

i've got my money in consumer staples

[hideokuze1]

there back to openly attacking working people

[hideokuze1]

ferguson this dirty scumbag

[Afrikaner007]

Paul Kurgman is so involved with dirty-rich politicians and business men that he sold his soul to the devil and I can not believe a word that comes out of that fuckers mouth. He will only say what makes him self look the best to politicians and businessmen. Nial Ferguson is a man with character, balls and integrity. He looks at the facts and realities and does not say what he believes will make himself look bad or good to any politician or business men.

[Afrikaner007]

Paul Kurgman is an arrogant bastard and noble prices these days mean nothing to me look president Obama got one for doing nothing. I mean he has changed jack shit. The only reason he got a price is because he is black as if being black or white will change the reality of anything economy or the conditions in which people live. Niall Ferguson is a humble brilliant man and everything he has predicted when it comes to economy has occurred and Paul Kurgman has been wrong all along.

[move2003ny]

@escapeout, Inflation will SAVE the American economy, because it's hugely indebted. You have bought $1.7 trillion of toys to the Chinese, yeah? How about paying only half of that? Well, you achieve that with just two years at 25% inflation. And please don't mention Weimar. Weimar owed the Allies a lot of money in GOLD Marks, which Weimar couldn't just print. You owe the Chinese a lot of money in USD, which you can (and should) print. If you don't do that, you're a barkrupt country.

[move2003ny]

(...)coz the 25% inflation in the US would become 100-200% inflation in China unless they let the renminbi float.

It's not really a debate between Keynesians vs Monetarists, Mr Ferguson. Both schools of thought have proven their shortcomings. You mention the Keynesian debacle of the 70s, but what about the monetarist debacle of 2007?

[move2003ny]

This Scottish boy (where's his Scottish accent, I do wonder) fails to explain what exactly is going to support the aggregate demand without Gov/Fed support. He also fails to understand that if the USD loses value through money printing, the Chinese will be pushed to an unsustainable situation, whereby they would not only have lost value in a significant part of their reserves but would also be faced with the impossibility to continue manipulating their currency downward, (...)

[desiret91]

@move2003ny It's a posh Scottish accent, like Sean Connery. Firstly, he's not a representative of the fed reserve, but rather an advisor, so it's utterly futile to criticize his intellect. You have the audacity to claim that Prof Ferguson 'fails to understand...' when he's the most acclaimed economist and historian of our generation. Pull your pathetic head out of your arse and show the first class Oxford economics graduate and Harvard professor some respect.

[move2003ny]

@desiret91 first of, you're right, he does have a Scottish accent, so apologies for my error and thanks for pointing that out. Secondly, he's not an economist, acclaimed or otherwise, but a historian. Mr Ferguson is indeed an intelligent person, but so are Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz, who both are Nobel prize winner economists and are in complete disagreement with almost everything Mr Ferguson says. You might want to pull your head out of wherever you have it and read some Stiglitz yourslf

[razdower]

@escapeout congratulations...you're not so bigotted that you don't hate someone for speaking with a different dialect than yours (can you detect the facetiousness in my tone? I hope so, b/c otherwise your a real fucktard.)

[razdower]

@razdower We have no reason to pay down our debt right now. No one will default on own loans. 20% of China's exports end up in American markets. The country will not flood our markets with the billions of dollars they're holding on to because doing so will absolutely destroy their production industries. Don't get me wrong...I'm not going to imply that we're totally invulnerable, but at the moment, we can get away with greater spending so long as it's not tied down by national-level red tap

[razdower]

@razdower and by national-level red tape, I mean federal government requirements that TARP-like stimulus be spent on ready-to-go infrastructure plans when IN FACT such plans were little more than local-level token gestures that were geared solely to attract federal monies. Put simply, the federal government has aggregate finances at its disposal that it should combine with state and local level knowledge and experience to facilitate successful infrastructure development

[goPistons06]

at 2:03, when fareed says "somebody like paul krugman...", i was expecting niall to say"fuck paul paul krugman!"

[Vidar1979]

and at the end he brings up inflation as a worry?!! Who the hell is worried about Inflation right now?

[Vidar1979]

This thinking is why the first (watered down) stimulus did not work. Haha Ryan is a total tool I cannot believe he brought him up.

[geoffybellofiore]

Zakaria is awesome. ferguson... not so much

[pagola]

@geoffybellofiore why do americans hate ferguson? it is because HE TELLS THE TRUTH!

[umrmecheman]

@TheRaawan way to respond to my arguments. i don't mind us cutting up to about a fourth of our military budget. but we need to stay ahead of the rest of the world especially china so if we can pull ourselves out of this mess in afghanistan sooner rather than later we could easily cut 25% of our budget and still maintain a solid edge over the rest of the world.

[umrmecheman]

@TheRaawan is because SS is a tax and not an insurance plan, pension fund, etc. do you know WHY it isn't any of those things by law??? because the courts were preparing to throw out that pet law of FDRs since the federal gov't had no such authority to force people to buy into a retirement insurance plan or pension fund and so only by changing the wording and intimidating the SCOTUS with court packing did he get it passed.

so guess what nobody is guaranteed shit from SS, ain't that a bitch.

[umrmecheman]

@TheRaawan i'll wager my mech eng degree that i'm smarter than you are. but enough dick measuring. that was another poster that made the SS was less than defense comment but on to your post.

you are arguing semantics in saying that SS is mandatory while defense is discretionary. fact is SS is a ponzi scheme that will go bankrupt. also SS isn't mandatory, read the SCOTUS decision from 1960 Flemming vs Nestor, the u.s. can change the terms of SS any time congress so pleases. this is because SS

[umrmecheman]

@TheRaawan thatshows your ignorance right away. Social Security already pays out more than defense. and that is before the cuts in defense spending that gates is implementing.

go to offical u.s. gov't sites and check it out.

[zefvor]

What a moron. Greece got into trouble only because it is in the eurozone. Everyone outside have a printing press guaranteeing government's paying ability.

[girardbcp]

@TheRaawan Wow, you're grossly misinformed but you think you aren't = you're stupid.

[btaylor9661]

@TheRaawan Oblamo thinks we can dig ourselves out with more dept.

[btaylor9661]

Government spending as a solution? Our governent is out of money and need to get ahold of all this gvernment spending an squeeze the life out of it. We are going to have to pay all of this back. We are spending money we do not have and are about out of options with those borrowed funds. Reduce all of this government payroll and get it under control. The only real job increase are in the public sector and that needs not only to stop but to be reversed.

[brougham911]

I do know what I'm talking about that's what 'm studying; but it's worthless to have a rational discourse with someone who also lacks the capacity to have present their ideas effectively but uses insults to get its point across. Anyway, what we want it's a decent jobs for all the people who are unemployed and the only way to do that now it's by government spending which could be by various ways (ex: investments in infrastructure, green jobs).

[brougham911]

This guy does not have a clue what he is talking about. He's a historian not an Economist. Most of the facts he presents are not true. The sad thing is that Republicans are now trying to rewrite history ( Bush's policies got us into this mess). We need promptly another stimulus otherwise the Economy will fall into stagnation, and the consequences will be devastating.

[mrtriplewinner]

he doesn't have a clue????!!!!! yeap...YOU probably do isn't einstein? no wonder USA is heading to disaster..with a population full of MORONS like you!!! what you want?

[emichik86]

@brougham911 Educate yourself. Check out videos with: Marc Faber, Jim Rogers, Ron Paul, Gerald Celente.

Another stimulus is the last thing we need right now.

[Gregoryde]

Have to get rid of social security and Medicare.... a British upstart who wants to mess with our social security. Get lost............!!

[caq9461]

who were the 3 congressmen?

[misterMagoo4]

Niall neglects to mention that big Keynesian economics did work...Roosenvelt implimented successful Keynesian policies via the New Deal and TVA projects.

I agree with Niall about his asserion that the USA is in a nexus; it needs to make the correct fiscal decision soon or risk soveriegn bond holders demanding a premium surcharge on the issuing of new US debt.

[ryonheart]

@misterMagoo4

the majority of academic study on the New Deal type Keynesian policies in the 1930's have shown that not only did the New Deal not work... or help in fighting the depression.. but actually made it worse!

Sure we dont know for sure... but to say the New Deal worked.. is wrong.

[misterMagoo4]

@ryonheart I contend that Keynesian economics did work (the only major research that disagrees with this postulate is Milton Friedman's analysis)- and rather successfully at that. Compare this against Monetarism - which you can ask the Iceland government about.

[btaylor9661]

@misterMagoo4 Roosevelt implemented World War 2 and that pulled us out the the quagmire I hope we don't need that to get out of this. Roosevelts policies have now festered and this again is our situation. Give away too many freebies to people and then they depend on it, in addition many more will join them.

[Kritikakis1968]

economicpolicyjournal . com/2010/07/serious-tracking-o­f-americans-begins.html

"...As for your body, you will be required to have an "electronic health record", by 2014. They snuck this into one of the "stimulus" bills. The electronic record will include an obesity rating. The information will be required to be on a "national exchange" with only secure access..."

Comments?

[girardbcp]

@Kritikakis1968 Yeah it's not true.

[girardbcp]

Wow, Furguson seems to not understand that austerity measures that Greece took on actually increased unemployment, their deficit and caused riots in the street. Ireland, another country who practiced fiscal austerity, in which unemployment went from 6% to 13% right now! It's written,do the research!

[TheRicky816]

@girardbcp They literally just passed them and it was the Socialists in power who did it. How in the world could they increase employment unless you completely ignore the fact that there is a recession?

[girardbcp]

@TheRicky816 The point is that both countries instated them and there was a negative aggregate impact on the economy and unemployment specifically . It's online, and very well known that Ireland instated austerity measures when the crisis hit and it the unemployment continued to rise. Same thing happened in Greece. A more relevant case was 1937 when FDR did the exact same thing, thus plunging the country back into a recession. 2 conditions for stimulus: High unemployment + zero lower bound

[btaylor9661]

@girardbcp Greece could no longer support its debt and it ept increasing with so many govenment employees on the dole at young ages, retiring early with permamnent pensions was and is a serious problem and we are following that pattern by hiring more government employees right here

[girardbcp]

@btaylor9661 Wow, you think that government employees make up a large portion of the Federal budget? I think you need to do better research. I'll tell you one fact largely missed on the american public: The Defense budget is the biggest category in our budget (after Medicare and Social Security). Cut that budget in 1/2 and we'll have no budget deficit and we could cut the debt much faster.

[phmoserjr]

BTW, over 25% of Americans (the poor) don't pay any taxes at all and actually get tax credits which means they get money back from the government. The "rich" ,everyone talks about in the press, isn't that wealthy to pay off trillions of dollars of debt which is the result of all the spending that is going on. The government has two forms of revenue, debt and taxes. We have to pay the debt back...with interest. Forget the class warfare garbage you hear in the media and use common sense.

[RasaMFrasa]

@phmoserjr- try almost 50% of taxpayers don't really pay any taxes... which doesn't even count the non taxpayers

[girardbcp]

@RasaMFrasa Actually, they don't pay the Federal income tax because of deductions and exemptions that gives back a refund which offsets what they would pay in taxes. They still have to pay social security, medicare and payroll taxes as well as other taxes like sales taxes, and capital gains taxes, etc.

[phmoserjr]

Like managing your own check book, there are ample expenses that aren't critical that could be cut. The "spend your way to success" model has the obvious down side is that you have to eventually pay the piper. Saving vs. spending has always proven to work.

[ThePlutoniumBomb]

Gee thanks Niall, Thatcher's Britain has left the UK with the worst state pension in Europe. "Sorry there old chap, I'm sorry you don't have enough money for Barley soup, you'll just have to move in with your evil son n law."

Funny how he doesn't mention that defence spending is on par with Medicare. Gee Niall maby we could get rid of the over 50 American military bases in Germany or stop servicing over 5000 nuclear warheads, But no! that would upset the glory of empire!!!

[localhero101]

Another apologist for the elite & the corporate masters. That's right Fergy, let's raise taxes on the working poor rather than reign in (or eliminate entirely) the corporate status quo.

[ziegle9876]

Paul Krugman: Imagine he is approaching you with a bloodless constrictor and telling you that Castration is lowering blood pressure, makes you calm, and extends your life expectancy..... Why does this sound so similar to what he is proposing economically?

[btaylor9661]

@ziegle9876 Can you imagine this guy getting a Pulitzer Pirze for economics, what a weasal, thank goodness he is not able to make much public policy.

[Ellipsis10]

Nial Ferguson is the man!