East Coast Economic Update, March 13, 2009

[highwaysong007]

what alot of people don't realize is that small towns make up more than 3/4 of the states... used to be less than 7/8 retail but with the housing bubble also came "urban sprawl". Now retail per capita is almst evenly distibuted. Wal-Mart is HUGE. Falling propert values and all the proposed taxes and unemployment driving a game of "hot potato." It's a really BIG bubble with lots of little "pockets" in its layers...Here comes the next layer... sounds like one GIANT ponzi scheme.

[highwaysong007]

all I've noticed is more and more empty spaces... some small towns in WNY practically have tumbleweeds rolling through.... the housing bubble hits commercial properties...

[dgmoocher]

We are thinking of renaming the city of Sacramento: "For Sale or Lease". By visual pass-by I'm seeing more and more commercial RE go vacant posssssibly to the tune of 15 maybe as high as 20%. Some where in there.

[thirstybullet]

I saw a news article today on CNN internet that 50 people a week are joining tent cities in Scrotumento alone.

[CaligalinLibrary]

Check out shadowstats com for unemployment stats and look at "alternate data". Unemployment is at 19%.

[AwakeAndDangerous]

Good luck with the new shop, there are definitely opportunities out there for those that know where to look. I'm hoping to be the opposite of the Great Depression sharecropper; I went into this crisis renting 10 acres, maybe I'll come out of it owning 100. Doesn't it just break your heart to hear about the real estate market "crashing?"

[Travinyle1]

Great information

[Arginine88]

You have just explained indirectly how free market capitalism works! (laissez-faire) thanks for the vid. Let the big boys fail if they did not manage there corrupt bank sensibly!

[evcrawfish]

1:40 so skewled sir

[Raycheetah]

Best of all good luck with your business, John! I just have to wonder how anyone can turn a profit in NYC at all, with all the new fees and taxes and excises Hizzoner seems poised to enact. It would seem intuitive to expect an outflow of business from the city (though those who could tolerate the bloodsucking would have fewer local competitors).

You're a survivor, though. Might even be an opportunity to diversify your business a bit, too, if other businesses fall, leaving niches empty. =^[.]^=

[lightleague]

Interesting venture opportunity. Seems risky as well. I think you should really look at the terms of any lease... if terms aren't malleable now, they should be soon. I think a renter has the upper hand atm. Good luck.

[Kittenkattan]

I agree. I am just getting an idea of what is out there. Not to mention I think my competition will be gone by years end. Nobody makes a living anymore, they make a lifestyle. I here for living, that is how I will survive and thrive.

Thanks for the advice.

John.

[Bassmarko]

I think its great that you can grow but be careful. Try not to bite off too much. Also best to start an llc and get some investors. You may need your savings later. Oh! By the way I work for a major commercial lender that also owns properties and leases them. I can tell you we are experiencing about a 30% NPL rate and this is up from a virtual 0 about 18 months ago. Anyway good luck and cant wait to hear what you find out.

[Kittenkattan]

I agree. I am just looking now. I also think much of my competition will be gone with in the year. I want to think ahead and plan. If you don't, you miss an opportunity.

Thanks for the advice.

[requiem777]

Hey,

my experience is that people are not yet recognizing the fall in value of their property. In other words, market prices are not falling as fast as demand, because people are unwilling to accept their loss yet. So, I think you might be surprised about how expernsive some of that real estate still is, even though the whole block around it might be vacant. Just be tough in negotiating, though, and you will probably get a good deal.

Take care, from rural missouri

[republicofliberty]

hey whats up kittenkattan!? great vid.. it's good to hear from a NY local about the commerical real estate there. I have been hearing that commerical real estate is down astronomical numbers...from what you're saying it sounds bad.... what kind of store do you own by the way???

[ClanRooster]

I think the wealth distribution dynamic at work here is most similar to the post 'black-death' era of European history.

A financial pandemic.

Small business owners like yourself have the most opportunity to excel in this environment. .

Crisis = Opportunity

Thanks for the videos...

[AR15Truther]

Oregon coast update

It seems people a starting to rethink the Value of things, not buying with credit as much anymore.

In Fred Myers there is a huge shoe area with 40.00-60.00 + sports, designer, gangster, bling bling type shoes, the place looks like a grave yard, walmart has bargin bins of kids shoes at 3.$ and cheap shoes at 11-25. and a large line of good boots 20-60.

A friend is going to lease a store on a progressive slide first month 450. second 500 third 550 forth 600 full rent

[elgringote3]

Hey there, it says 10% in 4 states

The jobless rate topped 10 percent in four states, led by Michigan, where at 11.6 percent it was the highest since May 1984, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

[Kittenkattan]

Holy crap. This morning Bloomberg stated that is was 24 states that were over 10%! I calulated that it would make the national average to be 9.8! Something screwy is going on.

[elgringote3]

I think survival gear and combat boots might be better soon for your new location. I'm at my wits end for a job, feeling a bit down if you know what I mean.

[Kittenkattan]

Hey! I thought you were employed! When did you get laidoff?

[elgringote3]

I actually quit a home improvement sales job in Jan when the company said they would renig on the 10% they had promised 2 months b4 to help us out with the slow sales and offer a lower price to get business. I have a hearing at the unemployment office next month for the judge to decide if I quit with good cause.

[Kittenkattan]

Fucking A! There are bailout the bankers but you they have to have a hearing to see if you are WORTHY of assistance!! Keep me informed. If I can help, I will.

Peace.

John.

[elgringote3]

u should see the forms to apply for social services. They want to know all your assets, if you sold any assets the last few years, mandatory trainings, a face to face interview, agree to allow them to visit your home, etc. for a few hundred dollars of assistance. Meanwhile, banks can get a couple trillion with no oversight or intrusion.