Debt Sustainability: Which Countries Are Beyond the Point of Return and Why?

[MrIrishBilly]

Irony  = Americans giving advise on "Debt Sustainability"

LOL

[supreme006]

So, according to Bass, Japan is going down because it is "xenophobic," and ethnically homogenous. Because its population is almost entirely Japanese, Japan faces "inexorable decline." Rubbish. That's the perspective of someone who sees Japan only as a place to make money for his investors. The Japanese have a different view: they see their ethnic homogeneity as a strength. They believe mass immigration of non-whites has weakened the USA - a realistic conclusion - and reject a similar fate.

[thrivevideo]

@supreme006

Actually reality doesnt care how the japanese see things or what they believe. The japanese ponzi scheme is at its high point and therefore from now onward it will go down. The hard fact is that the average citizen gets older, so fewer payers for more receivers. Thats why japan will suffer, let alone the totally underestimated fallout

[supreme006]

@thrivevideo First, see my reply to "luciusfargo." Second, the Japanese do not see the world or themselves in exclusively economic terms (as you seem to). Their historic ethnic identity and culture trump the gross appetites of the consumer culture that now dominates America, and in the long run, Japan believes its society will be better off without an influx of foreigners, even if this causes some short term problems. People like Bass, ignorant of history, fail to understand this fact.

[thrivevideo]

@supreme006

Hello, i understand your point. But the discussion was pure economical. Maybe the jap people will be "better off long term in an non economical way" (whatever that means) but in "an economical way" (the stuff you can measure and the discussion was about) they are totally screwed

[supreme006]

@thrivevideo I don't have a problem with Kyle Bass's analyses, as long as they deal with financial issues. He's a smart guy and has been proven right many times. But when he (and other financial experts) stray outside their area of competence, and presume to judge an entire society on the basis of its economy, making sweeping judgements about supposed weaknesses because this or that country chooses not to follow the American (problematical) model of mass immigration - he is open to criticism.

[muchookees]

@supreme006

You are letting your ego and emotions get in the way which is making you see things out of context thus making you ignorant. If you can take this advice to heart, you will be better off in the long run.

[thrivevideo]

@supreme006

What makes a society peacefully and staying together? Lets be honest: its money, or the promise of paying money in the future. If a social security system, in which millions of people payed their money in, crashes, it will lead to social unrest and other society problems. Thats not a law of nature, true, but history shows it. Japan will not be different.

[luciusfargo]

@supreme006 No idiot, the Japanese POPULATION is in "inexorable decline" (indisputable fact), which means that a welfare system dependent on demographics that are disappearing and never returning will ultimately collapse on itself. The proportion of the population at retirement age will double by 2050, to 40%. Without massive migration (or raising the retirement age to around 80), Japan's economic model is doomed, hence why the its rabid xenophobia is such a problem.

[supreme006]

@luciusfargo Namecalling does not disguise your ignorance. 1. Bass was too careless to even mention the aging population, though that is what he meant. 2. Japan is the world leader in automation & robotics, which will keep Japan's productivity high even as its population shrinks. 3. The Japanese do not worship capitalism, and the "grow or die" imperative, as a god or as the ultimate truth. 4. They see the racial cesspool America has become, and say, "No thanks," to mass immigration.

[RTC1655]

@supreme006 Hmm, here we have a guy talking about ignorance and then fire off the following statement "Japan is the world leader in automation & robotics, which will keep Japan's productivity high even as its population shrinks"

Do you really think that robotics can replace human labor as of today? We´re in 2012, not 2100, buddy. And: Please don´t think you are supreme, because - simply - you´re not.

[supreme006]

@RTC1655 Hi there. Glad to make a new friend, "buddy." Let's look at your comment, shall we? IS Japan the world leader in robotics or not? Answer: yes. Did I say that Japan would not suffer ANY productivity losses due to population decline? No. (No one really knows the answer to that question, but I'll agree that perhaps they will.) Your date distinction is cute, but the state of Japanese robotics TODAY might surprise you. And finally, I can't help my name - my mama gave it to me. :-)

[luciusfargo]

@supreme006 Hahahaha.... I didn't even notice your name first time round. Plainly no rebuttal is necessary, you have only one horse in this race: race.

[supreme006]

@luciusfargo Rebuttal is impossible to the ignorant. I suggest you read a few good books, like IQ & THE WEALTH OF NATIONS, by Richard Lynn. When you finish, report back to me and I'll assign you a few more. I will do everything I can to raise your level of understanding of these issues. No thanks necessary - I enjoy helping you out!

[luciusfargo]

@supreme006 No thanks, I've already seen THE BIRTH OF A NATION and I didn't much care for it.

[RTC1655]

@supreme006 Well, there you go, amigo. Sorry for my unfriendliness in last post, but back to the discussion: Without any doubt, Japan has an amazing robot industry, and albeit World´s best, not that far ahead of countries like Germany, US, France, UK and probably soon China. Anyhow, with Industry as 23% of its GDP, it is highly unlikely that Japan could replace anymore than tops 5% of its population decline with robotics - at least in our time.

[supreme006]

@RTC1655 No problem. No one really knows how much potential GDP decline b/c of population/workforce decline can be reduced (or stopped altogether) by automation. I suspect a significant amount of any such loss can be made up for by increased use of robotics, especially as technology advances. I acknowledge that's far from "knowing." But I do know enough about Japanese history & the resourcefulness of the Japanese people to predict they will continue to be a major economic power.

[gavinjengel]

Will the coming UK crises occur before the Japanese crisis?

[derekowens]

@gavinjengel I think Kyle Bass' view is that the Japan scenario will unfold first. The UK crisis isn't as bad. Specifically, the UK, like the US, has already recapitalized their banks. If the banks live to fight another day, then so do the governments, since the banks help finance the governments. So Japan first, then the US and UK later. At least that what I understand Bass' view to be.

[conswalo]

@gettingrichinamerica: LOL! 4th reich! Dumbass... Yeah, Germany benefited from the Euro, but to claim that it was an attempt at dominating Europe you are a fool. Did the Germans make the PIIGS lazy and incompetent? No! If anything, I have to admit that the UK had it right in relation to the Euro, you just cannot rely on the southern european countries! Anyway, good luck getting rich in the US ;) You are also screwed!

[casper1918]

He is a very bright guy and is one of the few who tells us what the future holds. You can listen and position yourself or be one of those caught in the financial tsunami that is coming. But if you are the "norm" you won't do anything.

[tubester4567]

How about talking about all the US businesses and financial institutions that over-extended and over-leveraged themselves into a complete collapse?. Its always the government or social program's fault isnt it? Germany(and other countries) doesnt need to recap their banks because they have sensible regulations that prevents financial intitutions from over-extending themselves. This disaster started in the US, get your own shit in order before pointing the finger at others.

[gettingrichinamerica]

@tubester4567

Before you run your mouth get your stuff together. Germany has turned Europe into its little fiedom by having one currency. German products would be too expensive if each nation had their own currency. Plus, with the surplus, Germany loaned the PIIGS so it could be German products. The rise of the 4th reich was short lived.

[YoungNdReckless420]

Zerohedge bitchez

[DoNotCiv]

Anyone recall the Maastricht treaty limit on debt? I seem to recall it was 3% of GDB max.

[frenchy137]

Zerohedge made this big.

[DoeBoy999]

I didn't hear him pitch anything whatsoever.

[Tuza]

Kyle just let everyone know that a crisis is coming. My guess is probably no one cares. That is, no one cares until they have to. This is a hint to anyone reading this, plan ahead.

[JWnFL]

7% - 8% of GDP.. is what ALL Social Programs cost today.. so 3% or 4% in a good (not great) economy.

So what Kyle the Great here is Pitching is.. a Tax Base of Less Than 10% of GDP?

Seriously?

and what about the Yaun / Renminbi's 1,200% Leverage?